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SPX500 trade ideas

S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 8, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the current trading session, the S&P 500 index has exhibited significant strength by successfully filling the projected gap, as detailed in the S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis dated November 1. This upward movement has facilitated a substantial rebound, as the index has retested both the Outer Index Rally level of 5861 and the Key Resistance level of 5865. Furthermore, the index has completed the Outer Index Rally threshold 6000, suggesting a promising potential for additional increases toward Outer Index Rallies at 6123, 6233, and 6418. Nevertheless, it is essential to recognize that achieving the Outer Index Rally 6000 level may prompt a downward price movement towards the Mean Support level of 5929 before progressing into the subsequent phase of the bullish trend
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
SPX : Saturn Squares Uranus (Heliocentric)The heliocentric Saturn-Uranus square is a potent astrological configuration known to influence significant market cycles, particularly in the SPX (S&P 500) often triggering periods of volatility and sometimes resulting in notable market crashes. Saturn, representing time, structure, karma, and restraint, squares off with Uranus, the planet of sudden change, innovation, and disruption. This clash between the old and the new brings tension and unpredictability into financial markets, where structures that seem stable may suddenly face upheaval.
TVC:SPX
by EsotericTrading
SPY/SPX: Top's probably not in. Hey everyone, Excited to do this post. This is a new approach to looking at things that I found super insightful and excited to share my findings with the community! As the title suggests, the top is likely not in. How can we know this? Well, besides the very obvious bullish price action and the fact that buyers won’t let anything drop 1$ without aggressively buying, there are other, more objective ways to measure tops and such. One approach that many would use would be using the ATR range. However, ATR ranges are a little flawed, especially when looking at larger picture stuff (like annual levels). This is because ATR has limitations, such as: a) It is not inflation adjusted, b) It requires a moving average of at least 14 periods, which, in some cases, are beyond the stock’s life time, c) Is a trailing average that does not correct for bearish years and bullish years. Thus, the results are skewed if bearish years fell within the ATR trailing range. You can correct for this by doing what I do, which is creating models that look at the entire life span of a stock and correct for bullish and bearish years. However, this also has some limitations, some of the same as ATR, such as: a) Over-correcting for Bullish and Bearish years, b) Insufficient history on most stocks to have a very rigorous model, c) Difficulty accounting for fundamental and other economic catalysts. Models tend to be unbiased and so omit periods where economic circumstances propped stocks up or down. So how can we account for this, simplify it and come up with useable data? Well, the easiest way to do it, is to do a cross between an ATR and a model, using scaled data (to control for inflation) and looking at ATR of the scaled data and comparing current moves to averages as well as other times where there were similar economic and fundamental circumstances. To do this, we can use stats software such as R, SPSS, SAS, Excel or MATLAB, pull the data, standardize it and get our results. Let us do this for SPX, as it has more history. Here we have SPX’s annual returns. Converting the Close to Open difference to a percent return is a simple way of standardizing data. Now, on its own, this doesn’t tell us much, because returns are dynamic and ever changing, influenced by a combination of fundamental, economic and investor sentiment catalysts. However, we can begin to make sense of things if we start applying some concepts of ATR, most notably if we take the average gains the SPX does in a year. Doing this, we get 6% average annual return since the 1800s. However, if we isolate for ONLY bullish years, or years where SPX’s gains were >0, our average becomes 16%. Currently, SPX is at a 14% gain on the year. We can hone in a bit more, by isolation SPX’s Max gain. Doing this, we see that SPX’s biggest gain in 1 year happened in 1933, when it gained 46%. How about normal, bull market years? To figure this out, the easiest way is to rank the data from highest to lowest or lowest to highest. Then, we can take the mean, median and mode of the ranked data. We already have the mean, which is 16%, but with ranked data we can get the median and mode. First, the mode. Remember, mode is the value that occurs the most frequently. For SPX, the mode is interestingly enough 14%. Which means, of all of SPX’s bullish years, more times than not they ended at a 14% gain. Now for the median. Remember, the median is the middle value of ranked data. And surprise! Its also 14%! Its difficult to interpret what this could mean. It does tell us that we don’t have a perfect, normal distribution, because, despite the median and mode being the same, the mean is not the same (remember its 16%). But, it is close! So what does this tell us? Before we make inferences about this data, I think its important that we look at a few other things first. Most notably, the standardized version of the high to low value. The gains that we have looked at only represent the open to close. However, very rarely if ever has SPX ever closed on a high or low. So we would anticipate, looking at the actual range from high to low, we would get some different values. So let’s take a look at this on SPX’s bullish years: Looking at this, the average high to low is 25%. Currently, SPX is sitting at 16%. Exciting right? This is very far from where we are now! The MAX High to Low percent was 121% and the min was 4%. The max happened in 1933, the same year that the SPX gained a whopping 46%. For interest sake, let’s rank this data from low to high and calculate the median and mode. Doing this gives us the following: The mode is 15% and the median is 24%. So how can we use this data to make predictions about SPX? Well, we can actually calculate the targets based on the average of these values. So let’s get into it. Assuming that SPX is going to close at the average, between 14% and 16%, that would convert to a price target of 5409.53 - 5504.43. So, provided this is a bullish year (which it looks like it will be), we can expect our close to fall somewhere between 5400 and 5500, which is the average closing range of bullish years. However, SPX is still trailing below the expected high to low range, with an average range of 25% which is also the median (roughly). So with SPX’s YTD low of 4682.11, that would convert to a high of 5852.64. I don’t want to make this post too long, but I have replicated this with SPY as well and here is the data in a nutshell: SPY’s average gain on bullish years is 18%. SPY’s average high to low range on bullish years is 29%. SPY’s current gain on the year is 15%, and SPY’s current high to low range on the year is 16%. This gives the following price targets on SPY: Expected close (assuming we close at the annual average): 557.15 Expected High (assuming we meet the average high to low range): 601.67. One final note about SPY, interestingly, SPY’s largest gain was in 1995 at the start of the tech bubble where it gained a whopping 35%! Imagine SPY closing this year around 637.42?! Unthinkable! But .. possible? This is not trading advice, just trying to put things into perspective for people. I see a lot of short biased ideas continually popping up. For us to meet the average high to open range by selling, would require a HUGE tank from this position. I find the most likely and realistic is a continuation up from here to meet the average move. Safe trades everyone!
SP:SPXLong
by Steversteves
3
S&P 500 reversal target - 6151Looking at a potential reversal target for the S&P 500 as we move beyond the election year into 2025. When scanning backwards on the previous high from late 2021, we can see price action clearly retested the speed fib on multiple weeks before a final rejection that induced the mini bear market which ended Oct of '22. Following that same speed fib forward into 2024, we can clearly see price is NOW, once again, retesting this magnetic fib zone. To figure out where this is all going, let's measure from the Jan '22 high into the Oct '22 low. Here, we get a 1.854 and 2.0 fib extension which intersects with the speed fib in question. Making some assumptions that price will AGAIN, range and retest multiple times before resolving, we can overlay "bars pattern" (from Jan '21 HIGH - Oct '22 LOW) and see when and how this could play out. Now, we wait and see how this movie ends! Note: Not trading or investment advice. ENTERTAINMENT ONLY!
OANDA:SPX500USD
by tantamount
Great trade in SPY!!!For an aggressive trader, you can buy now and place your stop at $5848, which is a safe zone because if the market falls below this price, the bull market would also be invalidated. My target would be $6193, which is the last leg plotted at the bottom of the pivot. To support this position, we observe that the SPX has pulled back to the 0.5 Fibonacci zone and the previous high, and the stochastic is in the oversold area. This trade offers a 4% gain and a 1.77% loss.
SP:SPXLong
by igorwolwacz
NAS 100 Execution , Taken out at break even The luck was just not in my side , My TP was missed in just a Tick but the trade management was top notch and that is what am learning to do well , This was An A setup for me and a low because of the low hanging objective but I wanted to see the market deep more like 10 handles below the sell side liqudity , If you will be seeing this past 30th, my subscription will have expired I just had one month subscription so am asking someone of goodwill if he /she can gift me a subscription so I can compete on the leap completion , Thank you .
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by murimilm2022
S&P 500 index Wave Analysis 19 November 2024 - S&P 500 index reversed from support zone - Likely to rise to resistance level 6000.00 S&P 500 index recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 5850.00 (former multi-day resistance from October). The support level 5850.00 was further strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band, support trendline from August and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from the start of November. Given the clear daily uptrend, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next round resistance level 6000.00.
CBOE:SPXLong
by FxProGlobal
Retesting support on the S&PThe Dow ended a touch lower last night, but otherwise US stock indices closed with modest gains. Earlier in the session, all the majors rallied off intermediate support levels which were being tested after last week’s pullback. Overnight, the major indices built on Monday’s gains but then sold off sharply on the European open. Investors were rattled by a statement from Russian President Vladimir Putin concerning the use of nuclear weapons, should Russia be attacked by conventional weapons backed by a nuclear power. This has taken the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 back to support once again, indicating that investors remain nervous with the stock price of many corporations trading at rarified levels. Just focusing on the S&P, there’s a band of support which runs down from 5,870 to 5,800. So far, support has held at the top end of this range which is positive news for the bulls. If prices can continue to steady, then there’s a reasonable chance that US stock indices could soon have another attempt to take out the record closes hit at the beginning of last week. But there are also reasons to be cautious. Geopolitical concerns aside, the giant corporations in the ‘Magnificent Seven’ currently account for around a third of the S&P 500 by market capitalisation. That represents a significant overvaluation. This could be tested after tomorrow’s close when NVIDIA, currently the largest corporation in the world by market capitalisation, releases its latest earnings update. If the generative AI chipmaker beats forecasts, and once again issues positive forward guidance, then this could provide a base for another surge in tech stocks. But any slither of disappointment could result in a sharp sell-off as investors rush to cut their long side exposure. Investors are already getting antsy following reports yesterday that NVIDIA’s new Blackwell chip has been overheating. The other concern is elevated bond yields. US Treasuries have rallied sharply since mid-September, following the Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut. Yields jumped again after Trump’s election victory. The key 10-year has pulled back from its highest levels, and is down around 4 basis points this morning on safe-haven bond buying. But it remains elevated, and not far below 4.50% - a level which could, if breached, cause concern for investors, leading to a drop in risk appetite.
TRADENATIONSB:US500
by TradeNation
SPX WEEK OF 11/18/24SPX WEEK OF 11/18/24 To maintain simplicity, once the price moves beyond the WHITE range, monitor for a potential retest of the breached level. Be prepared to initiate long or short positions targeting the YELLOW ranges.While prices may surpass the YELLOW range targets, these levels provide a robust framework for securing profits. 🎯🫡 *These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
SP:SPX
by J3Trad3s