Getting closeWe're getting close to a top, but I still think 5600 will likely be attempted today or tomorrow. I will change my mind if they start getting under 5450. Vix broke out of a wedge, which is bullish for the vix but I don't think it runs up right away. I will change my mind if they get the vix over 28 again.
SPX500 trade ideas
MACD says a little higher for a little longerAs per the individual stocks I cover that have not yet reached their ideal retracement areas I am looking for the SPX to get higher into my target box. In any event it's reasonable for me to say we're in a B wave and therefore our pattern can develop into something more complex. Nonetheless, I am mainly looking for MACD to reach the zero line at the very minimum.
The take-a-way from this update is I am looking slightly higher in the markets for slightly longer...before our minor C wave takes hold of the market.
Best to all.
Chris
S&P500 repeating the 2019 recovery-Can hit 7000.The S&P500 index (SPX) is making a remarkable recovery as it completed yet another strong 1W green candle last week following the rebound on its Higher Lows Zone, near the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
This is a mirror price action with the last 1W MA200 rebound of the 2016 - 2019 Bullish Megaphone pattern, which not only recovered its previous All Time High (ATH) but also peaked on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension before the eventual 2020 COVID crash.
As a result, we believe that a 7000 Target is a very plausible one on the long-term.
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What goes up must come downSPY is massively overbought since Jan 24. My new indicator WaveTrend Multi Time Frame Table illustrates this.
Trumps actions start initiated what had to happen anyway. Currently the SPY is correcting from the previous 3 weeks of bull run.
After that the 1D, 1W and hourly charts should be green again (oversold zone) and we could see another bullish sentiment.
Just my 2 cents. Do your own research.
SPX: Good push at EOD 4/30, but…Possible H&S? Hear me outGood push at end of day on 4/30 at close.
Zooming out, it’s starting look like it’s forming a H&S. I’m starting to see a lot of people flipping bearish as well. But, also near close today, volume was not promising, declining at the close.
I swung short-term puts on SPY, I like SPX puts for a day trade due to this formation but this H&S can possibly out within the end of week with more data and uncertainty or the following week.
I’m short at the touch of the light red line: 5655.79 to the downside.
Gaps below 5354.76, 5206.44
Would say by EOW to next week, if we pull back, may form/complete the right shoulder.
Do your DD!
Let me know your thoughts! #NFA
Bullish rise off pullback support?S&P500 has reacted off the support level which is a pullback support and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 5,478.47
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 5,349.10
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level;
Take profit: 5,776.02
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
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S&P 500 unlikely to return to up trendThe implemented tariff policy of the Trump Administration is expected to hit its fallout on the market by Q3 2025, consequentially the earnings of companies. If the SPX is to have a chance to return to the uptrend this year, it has to confirm two days closings above the turning point before summer.
The inverse effect of tariffs is that it soars with the price: any attempt to adapt on the net price point levers the total price; it's not a fixed number. This leverage applies also to inflation, resulting in consumer sentiment to sour. There is a natural time gap between the implementation of tariffs and the return of industry expected by the Trump Administration - the tariffs have been falling like a chainsaw on international business and supply relations, but rebuilding factories requires time and investment. In this gap the required investments will add pressure to companies' earnings...
These news and outlook brings out funds managers to sell America 'bigly' and to re-evaluate their diversification, bringing down stock prices eventually. The tariff-rebuild-gap is expected to set in by summer, but it is unclear when it would end: so far it is uncertain how much of the industry would return to America to produce and circumvent tariffs. A few big companies announced to build manufactories in the USA, but mostly they plan for only one factory and it still requires building. The Midterm Elections could set the Republican super-majority in both houses to fall and, by extension, have Congress retake the right to set and lift tariffs from the White House. However, it is unclear whether they would use their retaken privilege, as one truth about tariffs, like about all taxes: they're easily introduced, but can take generations to go away again.
All this forms a painstaking 2H scenario for 2025, its rock-bottom too early to call.
S&P 500 index Wave Analysis – 29 April 2025
- S&P 500 index broke key resistance level 5500.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 5700.00
S&P 500 index recently broke the key resistance level 5500.00 (former support from March, which also stopped A-wave of the active ABC correction B from the start of April).
The breakout of the resistance level 5500.00 coincided with the breakout of the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from February.
S&P 500 index can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 5700.00, target price for the completion of the active impulse wave C.
SPX500 (4H) LONG POSITIONGreeting there traders this is my idea on SP500 and it is Long.
We can clearly see a recovery from the “Support Area” (yellow zone), after a wave formation (probably a completed Elliott Wave correction).
You are currently in a very impulsive uptrend.
Momentum looks strong, with no major retracements — meaning that buyers would currently be in a dominating position.
Key Levels
Support Level (red): 5.019 – 5.091
This is the “ultima ratio” zone where the price made a strong rebound.
Softer Support: 5.276 – 5.282 (where you are now)
This is the zone of possible correction, as you marked.
Resistance/Target: 6.150 – 6.156
If the current trend holds and there is no major retracement below 5,250, it is very likely that we will test the 6,000–6,150 level in the coming days.
The price is currently in a “blast-off” phase — if volume remains strong, you can hit the TP as early as late April or early May.
I predict that we have started an uptrend towards a new ATH. I believe that the market will start to "fly" already on Monday or Tuesday. Possible catalysts: Trump strikes a deal with China, announces a pause in the trade war, or Powell responds with an emergency rate cut.
My goal is mid $6,000 to low $7,000 by July 4th (maybe sooner). After that I expect a 60-70% drop.
SPX500: Short Setup Brewing!SPX500 is currently consolidating above the key volume node at 5,480.85, showing resilience after a sharp pullback last week. Price action remains inside a rising channel, but the steeper trendline has been broken, hinting at possible loss of momentum.
🔹 Key Observations:
Price is testing the lower trendline support—a breakdown here could trigger a move toward 5,400.
Volume profile shows heavy interest at 5,480, with a potential volume gap below that could accelerate downside.
VWAP support is intact for now, supporting a neutral-to-bullish bias.
A breakout above 5,530 would confirm bullish continuation and likely test 5,560+.
📈 Bias: Neutral to Bullish
📉 Breakdown Trigger: Below 5,480
📊 Probability Estimates:
Bullish breakout: 55%
Bearish breakdown: 45%
Watching closely for resolution at this inflection point. Patience until direction confirms.
💬 What’s your bias—bulls or bears?
#SPX500 #ES1 #S&P500 #VolumeProfile #TechnicalAnalysis #FOMC #VWAP #TrendlineBreak
S&P500 Alert! Entering a medium-term SELL ZONE!The S&P500 index (SPX) has recovered the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, limiting the Trade War losses considerably. Trading this week above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), the index has confirmed that it resumed its long-term bullish trend.
On he medium-term though attention is needed as we're headed towards a range, which in the past 10 years has historically been an interim Sell Zone. That's the 0.786 - 0.9 Fibonacci range, which since the 2016 correction, it has always rejected the uptrend of a 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) led recovery.
On 3 out of 3 occasions so far (April 2016, June 2020, July 2023), every time the price tested the 0.9 Fib, it got rejected back to its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). In 2023 the pull-back bottomed in 3 months but in 2020 and 2016 it took considerably less.
As a result, we call for caution near the 0.9 Fib for a potential medium-term pull-back but on the long-term the bullish trend is intact and historically it targets a minimum +27.74% from the All Time High (ATH), which is translated into a 7800 Target.
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Hellena | SPX500 (4H): SHORT to 38.2% - 50% Fibo lvl 5489.Colleagues, I have reviewed the waves a bit and I believe that when the strong psychological level of 6000 is reached, a reaction and correction in wave “2” is possible.
I propose to consider this movement as a strong five-wave movement. Wave “1” will be over soon.
I consider the 38.2% - 50% Fibonacci levels of 5489 to be the main target of the correction.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
S&P 500 index Wave Analysis – 12 May 2025
- S&P 500 index broke resistance area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 5930.00
S&P 500 index recently broke the resistance area between the resistance levels 5800.00 (top of wave 4 from March), 5700.00 (which stopped wave 1 at the start of May) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from February.
The breakout of this resistance area is aligned with the short-term impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from April.
S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 5930.00, former support from January and February.
S&P 500 – an ascending channel on Daily Daily Chart (D1) :
I'm observing an ascending channel, with a potential manipulation near its lower boundary.
If that happens, we may see the formation of a bullish pivot point.
Hourly Chart (H1) :
I've marked the boundaries of the daily channel on H1.
There’s an unfilled gap below, and price might revisit that area.
I’m watching the 5690.7 level closely — it could act as a key zone for potential long setups.
📈 If 5690.7 holds , possible long targets include:
🎯 A break above the local high at 5848
🎯 The upper boundary of the channel, which closely aligns with the anticipated bullish pivot point target
📉 If price fails to hold above 5690.7 and breaks lower,
I’ll start considering short scenarios and will update this idea accordingly.
Continuation of bullish trendSeems that the trade deal between China and USA is behaving well with the general market, in my opinion the market will continue up for a while, however we need to be aware that at some point will need to breath and at least pull back to one of the EMAs, plus since it is now touching the top of the BB it will most likely pull-back at some point in the future, that doesn't mean it will reverse, but instead, give us another opportunity to enter the markets again, in line with the general market and at a good position to capitalize from the market movement.
S&P500 Index Intraday Trend Analysis for May 12, 2025The S&P 500 Index is displaying bullish indications for the day. Key support levels are observed at 5789 and 5755, while resistance is expected around 5860 and 5930.
Please note, this is solely my personal view. Traders are advised to conduct their own technical analysis and ensure proper risk management before making any trading decisions.
SPX – Triple Breakout: Inverse H&S + EMA 200 + Ichimoku CloudSPX has confirmed a powerful bullish breakout with three confluences:
1. Inverse Head & Shoulders breakout
2. 200 EMA breakout
3. Ichimoku Cloud breakout
This alignment of structure, trend, and momentum indicators suggests a potential continuation move toward 6150 in the coming weeks.
Trade View:
Entry: On breakout retest or continuation
Target: 6150
Stop Loss: Below neckline or EMA200 depending on risk tolerance
Bias: Strongly bullish
Weekly SPX Has A Bottom W Pattern Prompting More Upside!Hey Traders and Followers! SPX is going up!
Sounds crazy despite the tariff news floating around but charts never lie.
Here's what we got on the weekly SPX/USD; We have a bottoming W pattern. What's that mean? We going higher people.
5690.7 is the beakline area, price above invites bulls to a party.
Target for this long is at 6198.9 area. Support sits at 5579.4 for this one.
I'm letting you know about this party so up to you if you want to have a good time. See you all there with bells on and cash for all $ for those who show up.
Best of luck in all your trades $
Cheers!