Morning Market AnalysisSome simple ideas to decide who will win today - Bull or Bear. Watch the gaps!
SPX500 trade ideas
Short S&P - Flat Structure I have a zigzag confirmed ( 5-3-5), this means we could be in larger degree 3-3-5, flat structure.
Heading into resistance?S&P500 (US500) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 5,771.52
1st Support: 5,605.36
1st Resistance: 5,861.82
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Update on the market 1230 pmStill no change in the idea although they pushed it higher than I expected. I will be out for the rest of today.
S&P500/Macro end of Cycle: 2027This chart shows the cyclical nature of the global economy, S&P500.
There is a clear correlation between a Bull supercycle and a 50% correction afterwards, which lasts for half the period of the supercycle.
First SuperCycle had a 27 years long growth, then 13.5 years correction.
Second SuperCycle had 18 years long growth and 9 years long correction.
Current SuperCycle ends in 2027 technically.
It is reasonable to sell your assets in 2026, at least 50% of all your portfolio.
SPX : I'm BullishPotential Monday's range play here. Still looking for higher prices for a potential higher low.
It is looking good here until or unless powell speaks something silly again and dump the markets. It will drive the price of Bitcoin higher as well.
GL.
the market is in chop modeToday's price action wasn't as bearish as it should have been if we were to keep moving down. 5600 held, and that is significant. Chances are, we will triangle into Powell and then rally briefly to 5750 area to fill the futures gap and test the 200 and 18ma area. if that's the case, we may be in a larger correction period (ABC)
SPX - Potential Inverse Head & Shoulders / H&S BottomValid inverse H&S currently forming on SPX. Need to watch for volume expansion at break of neckline to confirm.
Bear to Bullish to Bear long termAs we go through this short term bear market, early this year, very shiny bright upside is waiting .
Wave 5I think wave 5 started today and this week may be dramatic, but watch for bear traps around the low. I expect next week to finish the larger pattern.
$SPX - Trading Levels for March 18 2025
Not too much to write today because I’m on Spring Break and even though I am trading I’m not at my computer as much.
You can see the levels running through the chart. They are all labelled the bear gap is there holding the 35EMA and the 200DMA - that is big.
We are Neutral bearish here being above the 30min 25EMA but under the 30min 200MA
Grab this chart and let's GO!!!
S&P500 - What's next - Tariffs , Interest Rate decision? As of March 18, 2025, the S&P 500 index has experienced significant volatility, influenced by President Donald Trump's recent tariff policies and anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision.
Scenario 1: Upside Potential Towards All-Time Highs
The S&P 500 has recently shown signs of recovery, with a 0.6% rise on Monday following a 2.1% surge on Friday, marking its best performance since Trump's re-election. This rebound suggests that, despite earlier corrections, investor sentiment may be improving.
If the Federal Reserve decides to maintain current interest rates in its upcoming meeting, it could signal confidence in the economy's resilience amid trade tensions. Such a stance might encourage further investment in equities, potentially propelling the S&P 500 towards its all-time highs. Additionally, some analysts believe that the market's recent correction is a healthy adjustment, and with improved earnings revisions and seasonal strength, a continued rally is plausible.
Scenario 2: Downside Risk Towards the 5,000 Support Level
Conversely, the aggressive tariff policies introduced by President Trump have raised concerns about inflationary pressures and potential slowdowns in economic growth. UBS analysts project that if the U.S. implements a 60% import tax on Chinese goods and a 10% tariff on other imports, the S&P 500 could end next year at 5,200, an 11% decline from its recent record close.
Furthermore, Goldman Sachs estimates that the current tariff plans could lead to a 5% drop in the S&P 500 in the coming months, as increased costs may squeeze corporate profit margins. If the Federal Reserve responds to these inflationary concerns by maintaining or even raising interest rates, borrowing costs could rise, potentially dampening consumer spending and business investment. Such developments might exert downward pressure on the S&P 500, bringing it closer to the 5,000 support level.
Summa Money
Our conclusion.
The S&P 500's trajectory in the near term is intricately linked to the outcomes of trade policies and monetary decisions. While the market has demonstrated resilience, the dual forces of tariff-induced economic adjustments and the Federal Reserve's interest rate stance will play pivotal roles in determining whether the index ascends towards new highs or retreats to key support levels.
In these volatile times, it is definitely a tough time to predict how the market would move , so this is why we are looking into the different options as how things would pan-out in the upcoming months in regards to the S&P500!
Positive outcome - Enter here with a target just below the ATH at 6,000 points, with your stop loss being above the bottom at 5,125 points
Negative outcome - Entere here with a target around the bottom at 5,000 , with a stop loss around the resistnace 5,750
I am interested to hear out your thoughs on this analysis and overall the idea behind whats happening with the U.S. economy and what would be the reaction for the S&P500!
what if the US attacks Iran finally?if the US attacks Iran, the US market will crash , how much ? 60% a day.
- I called Etherium top and black swan even
- I called Spx500 top in 2021
- i called us30 bottom a few days before octobe7 happened
consider all that.
not a financial advise.
MMBMThe market gives. It always did, you just have to know when to take, put that philosophy in your notebook. It was a Monday today and there was anticipation for consolidation but that’s not the case for all markets. Once you get familiar with an asset there’s no harm in looking around. Your set up will come, you just have to know when to catch it.
S&P INTRADAY bearish & oversold capped by resistance at 5715Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5715
Resistance Level 2: 5770
Resistance Level 3: 5920
Support Level 1: 5500
Support Level 2: 5390
Support Level 3: 5255
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Monday morning analysisFutures had a pullback, but nothing special. I think it is highly likely that we try to break up today but fail and possibly we make a lower low by Tuesday
Good luck!
S&P 500 : How Long Could the Stock Market Correction Last?S&P 500 Analysis: How Long Could the Stock Market Correction Last?
Six days ago, we noted that the Nasdaq 100 had entered a correction phase. Now, the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) has followed suit, closing more than 10% below its 19 February peak on Thursday, officially confirming a correction.
Statistically, according to research by Yardeni Research:
→ Market corrections occur quite frequently—since 1929, the S&P 500 has experienced 56 corrections.
→ Only 22 of those corrections turned into bear markets, defined as a drop of 20% or more from recent record highs.
S&P 500 Analysis: How Long Could This Correction Last?
On one hand, Friday’s market rebound suggests that buyers are stepping in.
On the other hand:
→ US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Sunday that there are "no guarantees" the world's largest economy will avoid a recession. This came just a week after US President Donald Trump refused to rule out such a scenario.
→ The current correction has lasted 22 days so far, whereas historically, the average correction lasts 115 days and results in a 13.8% decline from the peak.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)
The price is forming an upward channel around the median line, which alternates between acting as support and resistance (marked in blue).
→ Price action suggests that bulls are struggling to hold above the 6,100 level. In February, they failed to push towards the upper boundary of the channel.
→ Since the price has reached the lower boundary of the channel, there is a possibility that bearish momentum may start to weaken.
However, if the price loses support at the lower boundary of the channel, this would be a bearish signal from a technical perspective, indicating the potential for a deeper correction in the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SPX : The Bottom is not IN yetMost likely we'll bounce from here and will get some relief on our bags. But don't get too much excited at that point, According to me it will be the time to de-risk some positions. I'm expecting this bounce to be a lower high and price to trade lower.
Reason : We have broken the weekly structure which is not a small thing. Last time when we broke the Weekly structure we saw a bottom at 27% decrease. I'm not saying that it will drop 25% this time as well but this downside movement ( that we have experienced ) is not enough. I'm expecting at least 15% drop.
Invalidation : Invalidation of this idea is weekly closing above 6,121. Until it doesn't happen, I'm bearish on equities.
GL!
Indices -MOnday 17, march 2025Liquidity Sweep & Rejection:
Price reached a high near 5,631.4 and got rejected from a supply zone (highlighted red box).
This suggests a potential liquidity grab before a reversal.
Entry Confirmation:
The price has started forming lower highs and lower lows after the rejection.
There's a consolidation after the rejection, possibly forming a distribution phase before moving lower.
SPX: no rate cuts in MarchThe negative market sentiment on the US equity markets continued during the previous week, where Friday brought some relief. A lot of mixed economic news, as well as stories regarding new trade tariffs continued to shape the market sentiment. The US inflation in February was in line with market expectations of 0,2% in February. New jobs openings of 7,74M in February were a bit higher from market estimates, however, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for March, showed a bit surprising inflation expectations of 4,9%. This was higher from the previous post as well as the market forecast.
The S&P 500 dropped to its lowest weekly level at 5.513, from where it started its reversal toward the upside, ending the Fridays trading session at 5.638. Tech companies managed to mark one day in the week with a positive sentiment. Nvidia gained 5%, Meta was up by 3%, and Tesla was traded higher by 4%. Regardless of Friday`s positive sentiment, the week ahead might bring some challenges. The Fed will hold its meeting on March 19th, and will bring its view on current economic conditions. Volatility might continue with US indexes. At this moment, FedWatch is showing a 97% odds that the Fed will hold interest rates unchanged at their March m meeting.
