SP500 - Bullish Continuation - Dow TheoryVANTAGE:SP500 has tested the daily support and currently experiencing a good bounce. I am expecting the bullish trend to continue!
SPX500 trade ideas
Market Recap – January 15th, 2025 (CPI Day)Pre-market Overview:
U.S. futures are flat as the market awaits the CPI data release in two hours.
In Asia, markets were relatively uneventful. The 2-3 day gains in China remain intact, while Japan and Korea traded flat.
Europe opened green, supported by lower inflation numbers for November, but overall, markets remain range-bound.
Key Observations:
Bitcoin and crypto are holding on to gains from the previous day.
European rates are down today after peaking since early December.
The U.S. dollar is taking a breather, down for three days straight since its recent peak.
8% Gainers and Losers (Past Week):
Gainers:
89 names, primarily from health technology, transportation, and energy minerals.
Constellation Energy and Cheniere Energy (LNG) are the largest names among gainers, with most others being small caps (< $10 billion market cap).
Airlines and energy continue to show strength.
Losers:
302 names have declined 8% or more.
Technology services, producers/manufacturers, and health technology dominate the decliners.
Big names in this group include Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor, Toyota, Alibaba, and AMD.
Watchlist Highlights:
Names showing relative strength with good earnings growth include:
Hood (Robinhood), CEG (Constellation Energy), Root, Brose, Sierra Deo
Roblox (RBLX), Hubs (HUBS), Marvell (MRVL), Vistracorp (VST)
These stocks look promising but await broader market confirmation before making a move.
Technical Levels:
RSP (Equal-Weighted S&P): Chopping between 176.19 and 174.78. Watching for direction after today’s CPI numbers.
Plan of Action:
Focus on names that have been basing and are poised for quick 3-5 day moves if the market reacts positively.
If the market melts down, consider shorting larger names.
Taking a cautious approach at the open, as the first move might not be the correct one.
Additional Notes:
Positive numbers came out from Blackrock, among others.
Considering incorporating market movers from the pre-market into future notes.
America's 500 correct Trump inauguration and second termDonald Trump's inauguration for his second term will shake the market to adapt to his fringe trade policies. The upcoming Trump Administration already announced to impose tariffs which will advance the cause for more domestic production, but as the general cost of goods will rise, so will inflation. The first correction of the market will set S&P500 below its 200-day average. As it is unclear which role the most influential billionaire of the world, Elon Musk, will have on government policies, the market will at least frown on this uncertainty, if not react to his announcements, that "it needs to get worse before it gets better" with overall sellout.
Meanwhile, major trading counterparts in the world, namely Mexico and the EU prepared for a second term of the loathed-by-leaders protectionist. China, currently in unsettling nationwide economy cooldown, braces for upcoming conflicts with the sole remaining 20th century super-power, as the inevitable Battle for Taiwan would be the longed-for distraction and a cause to get the increasingly incredulous chinese people behind the ever-scrutinized leader Xi Jinping. The conflict will further impact the High Tech industry of the west, as despite measures to recess from dependencies with the powerful Chinese economy, certain resources and products are not yet available anywhere else. Leading analysts don't see a conflict with China happening for another 2 years, opening the chance for China's economy to recover and further depress the urge of its leading powers to find a unifying cause.
Market Analisys: S&P 500SP:SPX
In recent months, the S&P 500 has experienced notable fluctuations:
1. All-Time High : The index reached a record high of 6,099.97 points on December 6, 2024.
2. Correction : It then faced a correction, dropping to a low of 5,805.65 points by January 8, 2025.
3. Current Performance : As of January 14, 2025, the index closed at 5,842.91 points, reflecting a slight 0.11% increase compared to the previous day.
4. Technical Outlook : Analysts highlight potential weakness, with the next support level identified at 5,771.5 points.
In summary, the SP:SPX has exhibited volatility, peaking in December 2024 and entering a correction phase in early 2025.
Let's analyze in detail the various phases that have led us to this point – starting from October 27, 2023, the last moment with a significant downturn.
Since then, we’ve seen an increase of about 50%, with a maximum drawdown of 10%. This represents a more than positive performance. Prior to this, we experienced a brief decline lasting around 90 days, with a drop of approximately 11%.
Subsequent rallies have generally been strong, although they have been shorter and more contained. In total, we’ve experienced 5 rallies and 5 pullbacks. Currently, we are in a downtrend.
As mentioned earlier, except for the first rally, the most significant one, recent bull runs have been consistently interrupted by unwelcome news, data that does not meet investor expectations, and announcements from the FED and ECB indicating that interest rate cuts will be smaller than anticipated. All of this has brought us to the current situation.
We are now facing a maximum decline of about 5-6%, with a bounce on the trendline that has been guiding us since October 2023. This is all happening as inflation data is released today. The market seems to have entered a phase where it seeks further confirmations from the economy, and the technical chart is showing exactly that. Additionally, we have several other key economic data releases scheduled for this week.
What do you think the market’s next move will be?
#SPX - 15 JanVolatile day for #SPX yesterday, market rallied on PPI but failed and came down to our 5815 level to perfection and rallied to 5865 for a good 50 pts as shared in our group.
Price action on daily is still bullish, looking for further upside. Price is holding PZ now. Bullish, with assumption that CPI could well follow PPI, for a move higher, 5900 5960 as next targets above.
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.15.2024🔮
📅 Wed Jan 15
⏰ 8:30am
📊 Core CPI m/m: 0.3% (prev: 0.3%)
📊 CPI m/m: 0.4% (prev: 0.3%)
📊 CPI y/y: 2.9% (prev: 2.7%)
📊 Empire State Manufacturing Index: 2.7 (prev: 0.2)
⏰ 10:30am
🛢️ Crude Oil Inventories: -1.0M
💡 Market Insights:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
On a gap up, we will hold and run higher. Weekly will pin it down.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
Pullbacks here and there but will get bought up.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
Everyone will eat up this drop; definitely look to position bullish here...again.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SPX500USD: Intraday DowntrendMarket Overview
The SPX500USD index is currently trading within a moderate downtrend with a Trend Score of -40, as identified by BreadWinners INDI v2. The price is hovering near the Point of Control (POC) at 5,889, showing significant selling pressure. Short-term indicators suggest bearish momentum, but long-term moving averages hint at potential support near 5,800, which could lead to a reversal.
The SPX500USD is currently in a moderate downtrend , with selling pressure dominating near resistance levels. Support zones between 5,827 and 5,752 remain critical for potential bullish defense. Traders should monitor these key levels closely, using the suggested entry and stop-loss levels for disciplined trading.
Patience and risk management are key in this volatile environment.
Resistance Levels:
Primary Resistance: 5,889 (Point of Control).
Secondary Resistance: 5,922.84 (BreadWinners Stop Loss level).
Support Levels:
Primary Support: 5,827 (BreadWinners Entry Price).
Secondary Support: 5,752 (Lower Point of Control).
Oscillators
The oscillators indicate a mixed sentiment, with most leaning neutral and some showing divergence in momentum.
Relative Strength Index (14): 39.65 (Neutral)
Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3): 26.98 (Neutral)
Momentum (10): -132.47 (Buy)
MACD Level (12, 26): -35.46 (Sell)
Stochastic RSI (Fast): 19.95 (Buy)
Williams %R (14): -71.91 (Neutral)
The Momentum and Stochastic RSI indicate potential for a short-term recovery, while the MACD remains bearish.
Moving Averages
Short-term moving averages continue to signal a sell, reinforcing bearish momentum, but long-term moving averages suggest support levels could hold.
Exponential Moving Average (10, 20, 30): Sell
Simple Moving Average (10, 20, 30): Sell
Exponential Moving Average (200): Buy
Simple Moving Average (200): Buy
Hull Moving Average (9): Buy
Trade Strategy
Bearish Setup (Short Positions):
Entry Zone: 5,889–5,900 (Primary POC and resistance zone).
Stop Loss: Above 5,922.84.
Target 1: 5,827 (Primary Support).
Target 2: 5,752 (Secondary Support and Lower POC).
Bullish Setup (Long Positions):
Entry Zone: 5,827–5,752 (Key support levels).
Stop Loss: Below 5,740.
Target 1: 5,889 (POC and resistance retest).
Target 2: 5,922 (Short-term breakout level).
SPX Flow concepts in real timeThe **flow concept** in trading refers to the way markets move, either easily or with difficulty, in an upward or downward direction. It is a critical tool for traders to anticipate price movements and market behavior.
Key Points:
1. Types of Flow :
- Good Flow: Market moves easily in the expected direction, aligning with targets.
- Poor Flow: Market struggles or moves contrary to expectations.
2. Indicators of Flow :
- Range and direction of the bar.
- Location of the close within the bar (near highs or lows suggests direction).
- Degree of progress toward expected targets within an envelope system.
3. Using Flow in Trading :
- Flow helps traders anticipate targets and identify when market behavior deviates from expectations.
- It integrates multiple timeframes: higher time periods (HTP), lower time periods (LTP), and focus time periods (FTP).
4. Energy and Strength :
- Flow derives from the energy between support and resistance levels (e.g., PL Dot, envelope confines).
- Observing energy shifts at key levels helps predict future price movements.
5. Practical Applications :
- Monitor Real-Time Flow: Recognize changes in direction or strength to adjust strategies.
- Avoid Stops with Flow: Understanding flow can reduce reliance on stop-loss orders by enabling better decision-making.
Conclusion:
The flow concept emphasizes studying and monitoring market behavior dynamically, leveraging multi-timeframe analysis and energy zones. Mastery of flow allows traders to anticipate changes, make informed decisions, and reduce errors.
In the video you see three timeframes from right to left: 5 minutes, 15 minutes and 60 minutes. At key moments in time (at close) the flow shifts and this is marked with 3 green/red boxes allowing the candles to confirm/reject the flow concept. You can see on the 5 minute and 60 minutes the flow changes is identified and confirmed. The 15 minute timeframe shows quickly the same change but it is not confirmed. Then on the opposite side you several flow shifts that are not confirmed, but eventually they also provide confirmation on the 15 and the 5 minute timeframe. This concept shows the importance to flow above terminations or levels.
Planning Your Financial Future: A Balanced Approach to InvestingTake a moment to reflect: What do you want to achieve in life? Will you be able to consistently set aside money in the months and years to come? If you're planning to invest, it’s important to think long-term and adopt a strategy that minimizes risk while maximizing growth opportunities.
Rather than investing a large sum all at once—for example, $20,000—it’s often more effective to spread your investment over time. For instance, you could invest $1,000 each month for 20 months. This approach, known as dollar-cost averaging, allows you to buy at different price points, effectively averaging out the highs and lows of the market. It also helps you remain emotionally detached from market fluctuations since both rising and falling prices can work in your favor.
If you maintain a steady cash flow from your job and invest regularly in something like the S&P 500, this method can work even better. Additionally, you can adjust your strategy by contributing less during times when the market is overbought and saving that extra cash for opportunities when the market offers significant discounts.
Remember, everyone’s financial situation is unique. Your paycheck, expenses, and goals will shape your strategy. While I can't tell you exactly how to invest, this method of disciplined, consistent investing with flexibility for market conditions has worked well for me—and it might work for you too.
S&P 500 key levels and scenariosAfter Monday's reversal-looking candle, all eyes today will be on whether the bulls will be able to take charge and further erode the bears' control.
Earlier, weaker PPI data helped to fuel a rise in US futures, but since then we have seen a bit of a pullback from the highs, although nothin too alarming so far.
Key support to watch include Monday's high at 5843, followed by 5831. A daily close below this 5831-5843 area would be a bearish development. In that scenario, a drop to take out liquidity below Monday's range would then become a likely scenario.
Key short-term resistance comes in around 5873-5882 (shaded in grey). A daily close above this area could signal a trend resumption.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Here at Traderbuddy we have rulesRules of engagement, when to enter a trade and what to do when in a trade.
Now see if you don't obey the rules, you won't become a consistently profitable trader ;-)
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SPX week of 1/12/25 two set ups I see a smaller set up and a larger one this week. we have SMT divergence with the S&P and the NQ, i see the first and smaller play as a push up, wait for a break of structure to confirm up trend, get in on FVG. if that happens we target the larger FVG and wait to see if it wants to push lower or break through higher, if it is rejected we target the previous low.
SPX OutlookSPX
Yearly
bullish. but it needs to pullback to the last year's VA in order for us to look for longs on SPX.
Monthly
bullish but needs pullback to last year's VA / POC. once that happens, we can start to look for buyers to step in. a deeper pullback all the way to the main POC on lay 2.2
Weekly
here too we have a zone that matches the one on layout 2.2 and price came down quite decisively on friday so I might consider longs till we reach the key areas below.
Plan
my plan here will be to wait for price to pull to last week's VA on layout 4 before starting to look for sellers to step in. although friday's daily candle was quite nice for the bears and there may not be a pullback to layout 4 VA. so if I get a short entry on my trigger timeframe on SPX, I will look to enter as we know when price dumps, it dumps aggressively.
The S&P 500 index is likely to change its upward trajectory.The S&P 500 index approached the "cup and handle" target at 6152 points, but recently it has formed a "head and shoulders" reversal pattern at the neckline. The index has retraced to 5783, filling a previous gap. If it trades below this gap, it may head towards 5583 points to achieve the head and shoulders pattern target.
SPX bearishThe recent stock market selloff was stirred by Trump's bold ideas about the Panama Canal, Canada, and Greenland. Right now, the Index is flirting with its 100-day moving average. If it stays below 5,830, I predict another downward swing, aiming for a near-term target 5,600.
US500 SHORT TERM LONG US500 Analysis: Waiting for Confirmation at Key Support
The US500 is currently oversold and finding support at the 100 SMA, with price holding within a key bullish order block that previously set up the all-time high (ATH). This order block represents a level of significant institutional interest, as it required substantial volume to create the ATH. It has held as support twice before, reinforcing its importance.
Current Outlook
• Support Zone: Price is testing a strong bullish order block, a zone historically associated with high volume and institutional activity.
• Oversold Conditions: Indicators suggest oversold conditions, aligning with a potential setup for a retracement move.
• Waiting for a Bullish Change of Character: A bullish change of character (CoCh) will confirm that the current downward move has concluded and a retracement toward higher levels is beginning.
Plan of Action
We aim to take a long position upon confirmation of the CoCh, targeting the Fibonacci extension levels of 0.618 to 0.786. These levels are key for retracements and align with the potential formation of a lower high (LH), which would coincide with the descending triangle structure on the chart.
Patience is essential. The market will dictate our entry, and we will react accordingly based on the price action.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making decisions.
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Yearly view of SPXAnalysis based on yearly pivots, says to us that the drawdown on SPX is impulsive and it may continue till monthly S4 or it even might bounce from here, before the new president takes office and rally, since this is a prosper year, it will probably be double digits.
The main event to watch out here is the inauguration rally, which will be "explosive", if the new president will want to sink it first, then "save" it later, it will probably dip even further, however the market will love the energy of the recovery.
Things to watch out for: God forbid something happens to the new president and the inauguration gets delayed!
One more thing, there's a prophecy been made by someone who has been right several times in a row, as follows: "Soon after Trump takes power, a great economic crash will follow". - which goes in line with the Trump rhetoric that Biden is leaving him a mountain full of debt.
S&P500 // neutral zoneThe market is in a neutral zone.
The trend is still long on the weekly, so a break above the long trigger (green), that is the previous daily breakdown, will invite more buyers, and the long expansion phase may kick in.
If today it closes significantly below the weekly impulse base, the first targets are the daily and the weekly support levels.
In my opinion, day traders have to wait. for the price to get out of this neutral zone.
———
Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated.
Level colors:
Daily - blue
Weekly - purple
Monthly - magenta
H4 - aqua
Long trigger - green
Short trigger - red
———
Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼♂️
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Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.10.2024🔮 Nightly SP:SPX / AMEX:SPY Predictions for 1.10.2024
📅 Fri Jan 10
⏰ 8:30am
💰 Average Hourly Earnings m/m: 0.3% (prev: 0.4%)
👷 Non-Farm Employment Change: 164K (prev: 227K)
📉 Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (prev: 4.2%)
⏰ 10:00am
📊 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: 74.0 (prev: 74.0)
📈 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations: 2.8%
💡 Market Insights:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
The markets are very sensitive right now with the pause. I wouldn't bet that it holds this gap for long.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
A little more upside, and then markets will need the weekend to digest.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
Everyone will eat up this drop; definitely look to position bullish here.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
us500 LONG💎Please don't be greedy
ENTRY : yellow point
TP : blue lines
SL :
below red line for LONG position
above red line for SHORT position
⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 1:
Please respect the yellow entry point, otherwise you risk entering too early before my strategy or too far, thus reducing gains and aggravating losses in the event of a stop loss
⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 2:
For risk and money management:
5% of your wallet for LEV X ≤20
And
3% of your wallet for LEV X ≥ 20
Long US IndicesGoing long on US Indices on the back of a resilient US economy especially the services sector which is a big part of the US economy. I anticipate higher prices for US Indices even though the upside might be limited unlike the bull run we saw in 2024 since the FED will turn more hawkish. Near term target of 6172 on US500.
Bulls and Bears zone for 01-08-2025Yesterday S&P 500 sold off and closed near LOD which could caution momentum traders.
Any test of ETH session High could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch: 5956 --- 5958
News to watch:
US FOMC Minutes --- 2:00PM EST
Wishing everyone Happy, Healthy and Wealthy Year !!!
