Long-Term Trend Still Intact for S&P 500The S&P 500 is falling, but despite the sharp negative moves in recent weeks, the longer-term trend remains positive.
The uptrend that began with the 2020 dip is still intact, and it appears the market has used this trend as an opportunity to buy the dips in the last two weeks.
If you zoom out from the current economic turmoil, the broader positive outlook for the U.S. market remains. U.S. stocks have become slightly more affordable following the recent selloff. If the U.S. manages to avoid a deep recession, this market pullback could create a huge opportunity for those who missed out on the 2023–2024 rally.
However, risks are notably higher now, especially with the introduction of new tariffs that are likely to weigh on growth.
As long as the long-term trend holds, downward moves into the 4600–4800 zone could offer compelling long-term buying opportunities.
SPX500 trade ideas
S&P 500: Defensive Plays Dominate as Growth Sectors Falter- Key Insights: The S&P 500, currently priced at **5275.7**, reflects cautious
investor sentiment, with defensive sectors like **utilities**, **consumer
staples**, and **real estate** outperforming amid market volatility.
Elevated uncertainty is evident from higher VIX levels, driven by
geopolitical tensions, weak forward earnings guidance, and concerns about
growth sectors such as **technology** and **semiconductors**. Institutional
flows into safe-haven assets like **gold** signal limited risk appetite,
suggesting near-term weakness in equity markets.
- Price Targets: For the upcoming week, a cautious long position is suggested,
given support scenarios and stabilization prospects.
- **Target 1 (T1): $5380** (short-term resistance)
- **Target 2 (T2): $5450** (psychological level)
- **Stop Level 1 (S1): $5180**
- **Stop Level 2 (S2): $5135**
- Recent Performance: The S&P 500 displayed mixed performance, with defensive
sectors outperforming while growth sectors like technology lagged due to
pressures from macroeconomic factors. The broader equity landscape remains
volatile, as indicated by the elevated VIX readings and constrained trading
ranges in major indices such as the Russell 2000.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts recommend defensive positioning, favoring sectors
like **utilities** and real estate, as investors grapple with recessionary
risks and inflation concerns. Technology and semiconductor stocks,
particularly **Nvidia** and **AMD**, face headwinds from regulatory
restrictions and trade tensions with China. Federal Reserve statements
suggest potential rate cuts later in the year, but near-term hawkishness
persists, given inflationary pressures.
- News Impact: Key earnings reports from **Tesla**, **Google**, **Intel**, and
**Boeing** could drive sentiment shifts. Tesla's results may influence
market trends heavily, reinforcing key technical levels. Additionally,
renewed U.S.-China trade concerns over semiconductor tariffs add
uncertainty. A weakening U.S. dollar favors safe-haven assets such as
**gold**, while geopolitical risks and economic softness point to limited
upside for risk assets in the near term.
A Broader Market Review...As we have all seen within the last month or so, the U.S. equity markets have been getting the worst ass whooping since 2020. And as much as we'd like to forget that absolute disaster, it does bring to thought the idea of buying general market funds (such as AMEX:SPY , NASDAQ:QQQ , or AMEX:DIA ) to gain a nice entry into the next bull market, whenever that may be. However, not everything is all smooth sailing. The unfortunate part of this market downturn is that no amount of technical astrology fortune-telling analysis could have predicted the market's reaction to the tariffs being levied on foreign nations. So we need to put our big-boy pants on and look at the market as if it isn't some automatic wealth generating pattern that points north-east all day long.
Let's start with the tariffs. Firstly, we know there has been a 90 day pause on all conforming countries most notably leaving out China. It's not like that's anything special, just almost all our crap is made there. Unfortunately, we are observing what may be the greatest economic error of our lifetimes.
For those who are lost, foreign governments DO NOT pay for the tariffs in the way we are told. The U.S. Government levies the tariffs on the exporter (Chinese companies in this case), who then pass it on to the buyer of the goods (think Walmart, Target, Apple, etc.), who then pass those charges onto YOU... Enjoy!
So with an attempt at a full blown trade war, which the U.S. cannot win nor even has the industrial strength or infrastructure to compete, we can expect the markets to completely do a Bald Eagle courtship nosedive into new lows as observed a few weeks ago. But what will the Creature from Jekyll Island think of this?
Well miraculously, Fed chairman Jerome Powell claimed that the Fed will NOT allow the tariffs to exacerbate inflation into new highs. Get that, the Federal Reserve will not allow economic movements that raise prices on an importing nation ( that's the United States by the way), to raise prices anymore. While he's at it, how about we just get no inflation ever since it's just that simple?
And as if that wasn't enough, Donald Trump called for Jerome Powell to lower rates for some reason, saying that Powell was too late on his economic movement at the Fed. As it turns out, our plan for strengthening the economy is to.... weaken the dollar? Not sure why that's the case but at least we will be able to borrow more money at a cheaper price, as if the United States doesn't already have a debt problem. The Fed lowering rates would of course open the possibility of getting yet another wave of quantitative easing which will most likely be observed further down the road. Another round of QE, along with rate cuts, will of course send the equity markets to new highs on top of a weaker dollar.
Speaking of a weaker dollar, we should lastly talk about the TVC:DXY which measures the comparative strength of the U.S. Dollar to other currencies. As it turns out in this scenario, the dollar is getting weaker and weaker every day, meaning that people are running from U.S. Debt like it's the plague. If we were going to get a weaker dollar, at least could we have a higher market to offset our inevitable losses? I guess not...
Here is the TVC:DXY 1D looking back into late 2024.
Lastly for what to expect out of the market. If the trade situation will all the tariffs and this neo-cold war cool down, we might see some tariff pauses or lowering which will of course fire the market into new highs. However, if the situation doesn't cool, our debt yields rise, the market is going to go south faster than a Canadian in December. On a positive note, macroeconomic events move slowly, so it should be clear when a turnaround is coming...
S&P Outlook for the Coming WeekS&P 500 Update – April 20, 2025
We’re still in a confirmed weekly downtrend (though we have paused our decline), and the daily chart is showing signs of indecision. The sharp bounce on April 9 created a large green candle, and price action since then has been stuck inside that day’s range, forming inside bars and signaling continued indecision.
Key Points:
Trendlines: We remain under multiple downtrend lines (drawn from both the weekly and daily timeframes), as well as all major moving averages.
Resistance: The April 9 high around 5458 has now been rejected twice.
Support: We’re currently holding above the short-term uptrend line off the April 7 pivot near 5265. Buyers have defended this level for several days in a row.
Neutral Zone: Until we break below this rising trendline or reclaim the EMAs and downtrend lines, this remains a choppy, sideways range.
This is a tough environment for swing traders. There’s opportunity on lower timeframes, but without clear direction, larger trades carry more risk. Stay patient, watch for a break in either direction, and keep size light if you choose to participate.
How Gann’s Square of 9 Reveals Hidden Time Cycles in the US500In today’s fast-moving markets, most traders are stuck reacting, chasing signals, hunting for breakouts, and trying to make sense of noise. But what if you could predict where the market might turn, not just based on price, but on time itself?
That’s exactly what W.D. Gann mastered. His tools, like the Square of 9, weren’t just about charts, they were about timing the rhythm of the market. Today, I’ll walk you through a real-world example on the US500, using Gann’s time technique on the 5-minute chart. This isn't theory. This is how you can bring Gann’s legacy to life in real-time trading.
Step 1: Don’t Start on the 5-Minute—Zoom Out First
The first thing to understand is that not every swing high or low is meaningful. To apply Gann’s time analysis correctly, you must choose swing points that matter—and that means looking at the higher timeframes.
Before diving into the 5-minute chart, I always analyze the 15-minute, 1-hour, and 4-hour charts. If a swing high or low on the 5-minute lines up with a key support or resistance zone from those larger timeframes, that’s your signal. These are levels where institutions and big players act, and that gives your analysis a real edge.
So, once I identified a swing high and low on the 5-minute chart that aligned perfectly with a 1-hour resistance zone and a 4-hour support level, I knew I had something solid.
Step 2: Counting Bars – The Foundation of Time Analysis
From the chosen swing low to the swing high, the market took 9 bars to complete the move. That number isn’t just a count—it becomes our anchor in time.
Using my custom-built Gann Square of 9 spreadsheet, I plugged in this value. The spreadsheet then calculated future bar counts where the 45-degree time angle repeats, based on Gann’s time rotation principle.
The output gave us these key numbers: 16, 25, 36, 49, 64, 81
These are not arbitrary. They are time-based vibration points derived from Gann’s spiral math—each one representing a future window where the market is likely to shift.
Step 3: Letting Time Lead the Trade
Let’s walk through what happened at each of these time windows:
Bar 16: The market attempted to push higher—a classic manipulation move. Then came a sharp reversal. The 45-degree vibration was in effect. This was a textbook Gann-style turning point.
Bar 25: No sharp reversal, but momentum slowed and price started consolidating. This was a structural pause—just as important as a reversal for those watching intraday shifts.
Bar 36: This one was dramatic. The market had been falling, but as we approached the 36th bar, rejection candles started appearing. Selling pressure dried up, and buyers stepped in. Soon after, a bullish breakout followed. The time vibration had called it again.
Bar 49: After a strong bullish run, the price stalled and reversed almost precisely at this time point. This marked a shift back to bearish sentiment.
Bar 64: The downtrend lost steam. Price began forming a new swing low, and as we passed the 64-bar mark, bullish momentum returned. Another clean reversal.
Bar 81: The final vibration in this sequence. The bullish move slowed, candles shrunk, and volume faded. Then came a breakdown. A bearish turn right on time.
What This Means for You as a Trader
This sequence—from bar 16 to 81—is a masterclass in how time drives the market. It shows that price action is not random. It's governed by hidden cycles that most traders overlook. But when you apply Gann’s methods with precision, the market reveals its rhythm.
All we did was:
Identify a meaningful swing (validated by higher timeframes)
Count the bars between the swing low and high
Let the Square of 9 calculate the future time vibrations
From there, we simply watched and waited. And the market played out almost to the bar.
Conclusion: From Reactive to Predictive Trading
The real power of Gann’s techniques lies not in magic, but in mathematical and astrological precision. When you understand how time and price interact, you stop reacting—you start forecasting.
You stop chasing trades—you start anticipating reversals.
Gann’s Square of 9 isn’t just an old-school tool. With the right application, it becomes a modern forecasting machine. And with the help of tools like my custom spreadsheet, the entire process becomes simple, streamlined, and incredibly effective.
So the next time you’re about to take a trade, ask yourself:
Are you following price? Or are you following time?
Because when time is on your side, the market moves in your direction—not the other way around.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 17, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the recent shortened trading session, the Index recorded steady to lower prices, distancing itself from the Mean Resistance level of 5455, as indicated in the previous week's Daily Chart analysis. This trend establishes a foundation for continuing the downward trajectory, targeting the Mean Support level 5140. Should this downward momentum persist, further declines may extend to the next Mean Support level of 4970 and ultimately reach the completed Outer Index Dip at 4890.
Conversely, it is essential to acknowledge the possibility of upward momentum at the current price level, which may challenge the Mean Resistance of 5455 and extend toward the Outer Index Rally at 5550.
WILL THE S&P 500 COME CRASHING DOWN? TRIPLE RSI DIVERGENCE?!S&P 500 (SPX) Is considered to be one of the primary benchmarks for the U.S economy. Recently it appears to be showing a triple bearish RSI divergence, DMI indicating bearish with ADX above 20, and a bearish MACD on the 1 Month chart. The technical analysis seems to have a highly bearish hypothesis in my opinion. If we give some thought to Ray Dalio's Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order , some haunting indicators appear to be forming. Could this just be a minor correction? Or is this the beginning of an extended economic downturn?
Disclaimer: Not financial advice.
Bulls and Bears zone for 04-16-2025Earlier this week S&P 500 has formed a Death Cross which could be significant or not only time will tell.
Any test of yesterday's Close could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch: 5354 --- 5356
Reports to watch:
U.S. Housing Market Index at 10:00AM EST
U.S. Jerome Powell Speaks at 1:30PM EST
China is about to decided whether retailiate or not. Donald Trump and hes administration went to far and to many direction.
EU and China at the same time is just too much but tretening the whole world is just an enormous startegic error.
He made woke up not1 but 170 bear at the same time while the bears were sleeping and dreaming. And the dream ended. The USA not enymore realiable, trustworty, and therefore friendly country. The bears are dissapointed and angrys.
They dont wanna have does fals dreams at the next time, and its seems that Trump is in a deadend roed.
Honestly this story can be continued for pages but lets just speak about the an abnormal situation.
BONDS UP 10Y 5Y - trough agressive selling of US debt which is really will tied up the FED hands if the inflation does not happen due to the lack of the tarrifs. 10Y is at the 4,3
The questions can china put the USA in a situation then interest rate cat wount help on the longrun since China and may some of their contries under their influence reaching high detach in a US10Y 5Y and interest rate relation and sending US in to debt cicle.
The slow one is that that will slowly sell as much debt of US that they are cancelling the fed rate cuts.
The fast one is sending aup rates by at least 6% and making the big boys on the stock market to capitulate.
I will update and elaborate this idea better , but I hope if someone reads gets some hints.
SPY: Breakout Brewing?📍SPX500 | Triangle Compression Before Breakout?
SPX500 is currently coiling into a symmetrical triangle on the 5-min chart, suggesting a volatility expansion is imminent.
🔍 Fibonacci Levels in Play:
Key Support: 5,419 – 5,428 (0.5 to 0.618 retracement)
Breakout Target: 5,482.83 (Fib 1.382)
Higher Projections: 5,499.94 (1.618), 5,516.82 (1.854)
📈 Probabilities:
Bullish Breakout → 5,455 / 5,483 = 65%
Sideways Chop in 5,420–5,440 range = 20%
Bearish Fade < 5,419 = 15%
🚨 Watching for confirmation above 5,434 with volume for long entry.
This setup aligns with our high-probability DSS framework for intraday signals. Mark your levels. Monitor the breakout.
🧠 Discipline is your alpha.
📊 Chart by: Wavervanir International LLC
#SPX500 #TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis #Fibonacci #TrianglePattern #BreakoutStrategy #SmartMoney #QuantEdge #Wavervanir #MarketUpdate #DayTrading #DSS #SP500
Caution on Crypto, Tech, SPXI know its a mess, this is just for me anyway.
I tend to overcomplicate things so now then, lets over simplify for my monkey brain:
Trend line broken = Warning, thing are likely to change ( even though you didnt get the bull market you wanted)
Watch said trend retest, look for weakness, struggling price action
selling on the retest of the top lows last time would offer you 5% off the peako top, (Thats really good!! stop being a perfectionist)
I am very much frustrated with this market, never got the crazy part I was waiting for. But the lack of euphoria is really not that unreasonable when you think about what has been goin on the past 5 years. Everyone is poorer liquidity has been super tight to curb inflation and we still got NASDAQ:NDX up 150% Coinbase NASDAQ:COIN did a 10x and I still am not happy(likely due to the max pain trade of my life COINBASE:ETHUSD ). I have realized that I have been hoping for another 2018 bull run. It may or may not happen, but I can't expect any market to reflect that in any significant way. Markets are much more dynamic than I give them credit for sometimes. They will rhyme but often in ways you do not expect and will not be made clear until that little bastard hindsight kicks in, showing you how obvious it was.
S&P500 INTRADAY sideways consolidationThe Trump administration is moving ahead with tariff plans on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports, launching Commerce Department probes. In response, China has ordered its airlines to halt new Boeing jet deliveries, escalating trade tensions.
Despite the trade war, markets are getting a lift after Trump suggested a possible pause on auto tariffs and suspended some consumer electronics tariffs.
Japan will meet with the U.S. this week to discuss trade. The talks will test whether close allies like Japan get more favourable treatment.
Earnings in Focus:
Citigroup and Bank of America report today, following a strong quarter for equity trading across the sector.
Johnson & Johnson and United Airlines are also set to report.
Oil Market:
The International Energy Agency has cut its 2024 oil demand forecast due to trade-related slowdowns and sees a potential supply surplus through 2026.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5509
Resistance Level 2: 5660
Resistance Level 3: 5787
Support Level 1: 5110
Support Level 2: 4947
Support Level 3: 4816
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
S&P 500 off earlier highsThe major US indices have come noticeably off their earlier highs, following the positive start on the back of the weekend news of temporary tariff relief on technology sector.
The fact the indices could break out to test waters above last week's highs, suggests traders have not been convinced that they have had the all-clear just yet. Perhaps volatility will ease a little this week, but with earnings from tech giants to come in the next couple of weeks, on top of all the trade war saga, anything is possible. Traders must remain nimble.
It is all about the 5380 level now on the S&P 500. This is where it found resistance on Friday and now this level could turn into support. But if we break decisively below it again, then this could trigger a big of selling towards the next support at 5272.
However, the near-term trend has turned bullish following the big recovery last week. So, dip-buyers will be lurking. Let's see where we go from here.
In any case, more bullish price action is needed to completely nullify the bearish control. Specifically, the key resistance zone between 5490 to 5550 must give way before the bulls can be confident that we have see a major low last week.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
SPX Fractal Expansion: New Highs Ahead Despite FearAs of April 14, 2025, the CBOE:SPX is exhibiting a clear fractal expansion, suggesting the beginning of a new bullish leg. The recent correction, which caused widespread panic, appears to have completed a fractal cycle reset, with price respecting historical support near 4704 and forming a new fractal edge around 5300.
Despite the fear-driven selloff, momentum indicators like RSI and MACD show signs of bottoming, and volume surged on rebound days, confirming strong institutional buying. The price is now testing temporary resistance at 5878, with a path open to reclaim all-time highs (6100+).
Global & Technical Tailwinds
Technical momentum is recovering across timeframes, with positive divergence on stochastic oscillators.
Breadth is improving: More stocks are participating in the rally, reflecting internal strength.
Sentiment has flipped: The VIX has cooled from panic levels (above 45), and investor fear is easing.
Macro support: Inflation is declining, and central banks are signaling potential rate cuts by late 2025.
Earnings outlook remains solid, and analysts forecast SPX to end 2025 around 6500–7100.
🔍Conclusion
The SPX is carving out a fractal mirror of past bullish reversals, reinforced by strong macro and technical context. Barring unexpected shocks, the index is likely to break above resistance and push toward new highs, even as residual fear lingers. The setup favors buying dips within this emerging structure.
S&P500 INTRADAY oversold bounce backMarkets Overview – Monday US Open
Trump Tariffs: Trump says tariffs on phones, computers, and other consumer tech are still on the table, calling the weekend exemption just a "procedural step."
Tech Rally: Despite that, tech stocks are up Apple and Nvidia leading on hopes the delay gives room for a better long-term trade deal.
Futures & Gold: US equity futures are pointing higher. Gold hit a new record as investors seek safe-haven assets.
FX Moves: The dollar is down for a fifth straight day, with the euro is surging, it is thefastest rally vs USD in 15 yearsas, traders eye a move toward $1.20.
Earnings Outlook:
Q1 earnings season kicks into gear this week.
Citigroup and Morgan Stanley lowered their S&P 500 earnings forecasts, citing tariff concerns and broader economic headwinds.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5509
Resistance Level 2: 5660
Resistance Level 3: 5787
Support Level 1: 5110
Support Level 2: 4947
Support Level 3: 4816
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPX sharp moves begin arround monthly option expiryWatch out for the this weeks options expiry on Thursday (Friday being holiday)
During volatile time option expiry does produce sharp moves. They are not that significant during normal markets. Also key levels approaching. Monday after Easter, I am expecting the new move to happen. Breakdown or breakout.
I am sure the big boys are aware from the social media that everyone is expecting a reversal and they will set up a trap. They will make us thing we are wrong create a FOMO to the upside and then sell
A volume drop could indicate a big move