STAY AWAY FROM SPX 16 jan 2025Charts have been already showing that it needs to go down but now even indicators are showing downside.
Don't be a bull right right now. It is showing short trade now but I wont short
SPX500USD trade ideas
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): SHORT to the area of 50% Fibo lvl (5972).Colleagues, I believe that price is completing wave “1” and I believe that a correction in wave “2” is inevitable.
I expect the price to reach the area of 38.2% - 50% Fibonacci levels (5972.9). I believe that a small update of the maximum of wave “1” is possible.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
S&P500 smashed every Resistance on its way to 6350.The S&P500 index (SPX) hit and rebounded today on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), following last week's break-out. This is the confirmed start of the technical Bullish Leg of the 6-month Channel Up along with the 1D MACD Bullish Cross.
Having made a Higher Low on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) last Monday (January 13), we are expecting the standard 1.786 Fibonacci extension as the next Higher High of the pattern. That gives us a 6350 Target.
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SP500 Waiting for a pullback With the good news, the indices appear to have broken out of their downward trend. A pullback is expected on the SP500, and this retracement would occur in the 0.5 - 0.61 Fibonacci zone.
Market Snapshotwww.elliottwavetrader.net
Another great write-up by Avi Gilburt and team on the current state of things at a Macro level
Not affiliated with them and not pushing any of their services of course..
Do I agree with everything they say? Nope
The below snippet from the article hints at the TRUE reason why things are going to get desperate in this economy over the next decade:
"QE is merely a machination through which more debt is made available in the system, which is an indirect manner to increase the money supply. It is not actual printing of dollar bills, which would directly increase the money supply. Therefore, if more debt is made available, the only way you will get inflation is if there is public demand for that additional supply of debt. Without the matching demand for the additional debt supply, QE becomes a failure."
S&P500: Be careful of this 4H Golden Cross.S&P500 is on a very healthy bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 61.261, MACD = -3.250, ADX = 30.268) and on 4H it is about to form the first Golden Cross since August 21st 2024. During these 5 months, the trend has been heavily bullish but the 4H Golden Cross only managed one last High before the price corrected again to the 1D MA100. The 4H RSI indicates that we might technically be at the start of this final High pricing. For now we will stay bullish (TP = 6,165) but after that, we will only buy again on the 1D MA100.
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S&P 500 Analysis: Approaching All-Time High with Critical LevelsS&P 500 Analysis
The price has risen approximately 1.00% since yesterday, driven by strong earnings results. It is currently aiming to reach the (ATH) of 6100. A pullback to 6073 and 6051 is likely if the price stabilizes below this level.
However, if a 4-hour candle closes above 6100, the bullish trend is expected to continue, targeting 6143.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 6100
Resistance Levels: 6120, 6143
Support Levels: 6073, 6051, 6020
Trend Outlook:
Bullish if the ATH of 6100 is broken.
Bearish while the price remains below 6100.
previous idea:
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area 6104 (Wave 3).Colleagues, I see that the price has completed wave “4” and is now forming wave “5” of the higher order.
I believe that the price may go into correction in the lower wave “2” to the area of 50% Fibonacci level 5896.9, after which I expect the upward movement to continue to the resistance area 6104.
The upward movement is the priority, so I warn that the price may just continue to move upward, updating the wave “1”.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
S&P500 - Preparing For The Final Bullrun!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is still heading higher:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Although the S&P500 has been creating new all time highs for the past couple of months, charts are clearly telling us that this bullrun is not over yet. We already saw two textbook cycles of +90% each and during 2025, we will see the completion of the third and final bullrun.
Levels to watch: $7.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
[01/20] GEX Outlook: Decision, Key Levels and Looming VolatilityLooking at the GEX levels through Friday, we can see that since mid-December, the market has been moving in a slightly downward channel.
Above 6000–6025: A call gamma squeeze is expected.
Between 5925 and 6000: A sideways “chop zone.”
Below 5925: The high-volatility zone begins, with 5800–5850 acting as our major support/resistance level characterized by heavy put dominance.
Below that level lies a “total denial zone.” We’ve seen this scenario before—think back to the red candle on December 18, when the price broke below that threshold. This “red zone” is currently around 5800, so below 5925 we can anticipate large-amplitude moves.
At this point, the market still does not seem worried about significant volatility. Until Friday, all NETGEX values for every expiration are positive , so market participants are pricing in more of a sideways movement. We haven’t yet seen a big pickup in volatility.
I’m not pessimistic, but keep in mind that Trump’s inauguration might usher in a high-volatility period—something the market and many retail traders haven’t experienced in a while. Better safe than sorry.
S&P 500 Hits Record High as Trump Pushes for Lower RatesSPX: S&P 500 Logs First Record of 2025 as Trump Pushes for Lower Interest Rates
The S&P 500 (SPX) has achieved its first record high of 2025, closing at 6,118.71, following a 0.5% gain in Thursday’s session. Investors appeared to respond positively to Donald Trump’s calls for lower interest rates “immediately,” despite the U.S. President having no direct authority over monetary policy. His statements, however, influenced market sentiment, pushing the index to new heights.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 has stabilized in the bullish zone after breaking a key resistance level. The price is likely to continue upward, targeting 6143 as the next milestone.
However, if the price closes a 4-hour candle below 6103, it could signal a bearish correction toward 6077 and 6051.
Key Levels
Pivot Point: 6105
Resistance Levels: 6143, 6180, 6205
Support Levels: 6077, 6051, 6020
Trend Outlook
Bullish: The trend remains upward as long as the price stays above 6103.
Bearish: A 4-hour close below 6103 could indicate a move lower.
Previous idea:
S&P 500 Index Sets Record HighS&P 500 Index Sets Record High
As shown by the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the stock index:
→ has increased by approximately 3.5% since the start of the year;
→ surpassed its previous all-time highs set in December.
Market participants’ optimism was driven by:
→ a strong start to earnings season and expectations of robust reports from major tech companies;
→ statements made by Donald Trump at the Davos forum, where the US president urged Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices and expressed the view that interest rates should be reduced. Overall, such measures are expected to foster economic growth.
Reuters quoted Lindsay Bell, Chief Strategist at 248 Ventures: buyers "like the idea of interest rates coming down, of oil prices coming down. All in all, the market is optimistic the more they hear about Trump policies. We're just seeing a reflection of that optimism."
Technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) reveals:
→ At the end of 2024, price fluctuations formed an ascending channel (marked by blue lines).
→ The December dip appears to be a correction within the prevailing uptrend. Bears managed to push the price below the lower blue line, but only for about a week.
→ After breaking the correction channel (shaded in orange), bulls faced brief resistance (indicated by the arrow) at the 6040 level.
→ The RSI indicator is in the overbought zone and signals divergence. This suggests a minor pullback could occur, potentially testing the aforementioned 6040 level.
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SPX500 H4 | Potential bullish bounceSPX500 is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 6,042.53 which is an overlap support.
Stop loss is at 5,995.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support.
Take profit is at 6,102.21 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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Correction down for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD came into the 4H FVG's and rejected from there to the upside making a new ATH.
Next week we could see a corrective move down and after that more upside.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a bigger correction down to finish. After that you could trade longs.
If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis.
If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
Down for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD came into the Daily FVG and rejected from there to the upside. It could be that the WXY correction is finished and price is now going up again to a new ATH.
Next week we could see a (corrective) move down and after that more upside.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a bigger correction down to finish. After that you could trade longs.
If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis.
If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
US500 Price can continue move down Hi traders what do you think about US500 given suggestion in comments.
US500 suggesting a bearish trend with potential support levels at 6015.00 and 5810.00. If you're considering taking a position based on this analysis:
Bearish Trend: You might expect the price to continue lower from current levels.
Entry at 6015.00: If the price approaches this level and starts to show signs of reversal, you could consider shorting (selling).
Support at 5810.00: the price continues to fall or reverses. If it breaks this support, further downside may be expected.
if you like this analysis please support my work like and fallow thanks for love.
Crystal Balling...Yep views are 2025 and possibly 2026 are going to be bad years for markets - expecting trump to say they left him a mess/disaster in the down years and come 2028 everything to be at new highs and him boasting about how good everything is.
What Is the January Effect on Stock Markets and What Traders Do?What Is the January Effect on Stock Markets and What Traders Do?
The January effect has long fascinated traders, highlighting a seasonal pattern where stock prices, especially smaller ones, tend to rise at the start of the year. But what drives this phenomenon, and how do traders respond? This article dives into the factors behind the January effect, its historical performance, and its relevance in today’s markets.
What Is the January Effect?
The January effect is a term used to describe a seasonal pattern where stock prices, particularly those of smaller companies, tend to rise during January. This phenomenon was first identified in the mid-20th century by Sidney B. Wachtel and has been widely discussed by traders and analysts ever since as one of the best months to buy stocks.
The effect is most noticeable in small-cap stocks, as these tend to show stronger gains compared to larger, more established companies. Historically, this uptick in January has been observed across various stock markets, though its consistency has diminished in recent years.
At its core, the January effect reflects a combination of behavioural, tax-related, and institutional factors. Broadly speaking, the phenomenon is linked to a surge in buying activity at the start of the year. After December, which often sees tax-loss selling as traders offload poorly performing stocks to reduce taxable gains, January brings renewed buying pressure as these funds are reinvested. Additionally, optimism about the new year and fresh portfolio allocations can amplify this trend.
While the January effect was more pronounced in earlier decades, changes in trading patterns and technology have made it less consistent. Yet, it still draws attention, particularly from traders looking for seasonal trends in the market.
Historical Performance and Data
Studies have provided empirical support for the stock market’s January effect. For instance, research by Rozeff and Kinney in a 1976 study analysed data from 1904 to 1974 and found that average stock returns in January were significantly higher than in other months. Additionally, a study by Salomon Smith Barney observed that from 1972 to 2002, small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks in January stock market history by an average of 0.82%.
However, the prominence of the January effect has diminished in recent decades. Some studies indicate that while January has occasionally shown strong performance, it is not consistently the well-performing month. This decline may be attributed to increased market efficiency and the widespread awareness of the effect, leading investors to adjust their strategies accordingly.
Some believe that “as January, so goes the year.” However, Fidelity analysis of the FTSE 100 index from its inception in 1984 reveals mixed results. Out of 22 years when the index rose in January, it continued to produce positive returns for the remainder of the year on 16 occasions. Conversely, in the 18 years when January returns were negative, the index still gained in 11 of those years.
Check how small-cap stocks behave compared to market leaders.
Factors Driving the January Effect on Stocks
The January effect is often attributed to a mix of behavioural, institutional, and tax-related factors that create a unique environment for stock market activity at the start of the year. Here’s a breakdown of the key drivers behind this phenomenon:
Tax-Loss Selling
At the end of the calendar year, many traders sell underperforming stocks to offset gains for tax purposes. This creates selling pressure in December, especially on smaller, less liquid stocks. When January arrives, these same stocks often experience renewed buying as traders reinvest their capital, pushing prices higher.
Window Dressing by Institutions
Institutional investors, such as fund managers, often adjust portfolios before year-end to make them look more attractive to clients, a practice called "window dressing." In January, they may rebalance portfolios by purchasing undervalued or smaller-cap stocks, contributing to price increases.
New Year Optimism
Behavioural psychology plays a role too. January marks a fresh start, and traders often approach the market with renewed confidence and optimism. This sentiment can lead to increased buying activity, particularly in assets perceived as undervalued.
Seasonal Cash Inflows
January is typically a time for inflows into investment accounts, as individuals allocate year-end bonuses or begin new savings plans. These funds often flow into the stock market, adding liquidity and supporting upward price momentum.
Market Inefficiencies in Small-Caps
Smaller companies often experience less analyst coverage and institutional attention, leading to so-called inefficiencies. These inefficiencies can be magnified during the January effect, as increased demand for these stocks creates sharper price movements.
Why the January Effect Might Be Less Relevant
The January effect, while historically significant, has become less prominent in modern markets. A key reason for this is the rise of market efficiency. As markets have become more transparent and accessible, traders and institutional investors have identified and acted on seasonal trends like the January effect, reducing their impact. In financial markets, the more a pattern is exploited, the less reliable it becomes over time.
Algorithmic trading is another factor. Advanced algorithms can analyse seasonal trends in real-time and execute trades far more efficiently than human traders. This means the potential price movements associated with the January effect are often priced in before they have a chance to fully develop, leaving little room for manual traders to capitalise on them.
Regulatory changes have also played a role. For instance, tax reforms in some countries have altered the incentives around year-end tax-loss harvesting, one of the primary drivers of the January effect. Without significant December selling, the reinvestment-driven rally in January may lose its momentum.
Finally, globalisation has diluted the January effect. With global markets interconnected, price trends are no longer driven by isolated local factors. International flows and round-the-clock trading contribute to a more balanced market environment, reducing the impact of seasonal trends.
How Traders Respond to the January Effect in the Stock Market
Traders often pay close attention to seasonal trends like the January effect, using them as one of many tools in their market analysis. While it’s not a guarantee, the potential for small-cap stocks to rise in January offers insights into how some market participants adjust their strategies. Here are ways traders typically respond to this phenomenon:
1. Focusing on Small-Cap Stocks
The January effect has historically been more pronounced in small-cap stocks. Traders analysing this trend often look for undervalued or overlooked small-cap companies with strong fundamentals. These stocks tend to experience sharper price movements due to their lower liquidity and higher susceptibility to seasonal buying pressure.
2. Positioning Ahead of January
Some traders aim to capitalise on the January effect by opening a long position on small-cap stocks in late December, possibly during a Santa Claus rally, anticipating that reinvestment activity and optimism in January will drive prices up. This approach is not without risks, as not all stocks or markets exhibit the effect consistently.
3. Sector and Industry Analysis
Certain sectors, such as technology or emerging industries, may show stronger seasonal performance in January. Traders often research historical data to identify which sectors have benefited most and align their trades accordingly.
4. Potential Opportunities
Active traders might view the January effect as an opportunity for shorter-term trades. The focus is often on timing price movements during the month, using technical analysis to identify entry and exit points based on volume trends or momentum shifts.
5. Risk Management Adjustments
While responding to the January effect, traders emphasise potential risk management measures. Seasonal trends can be unreliable, so diversification and smaller position sizes are often used to potentially limit exposure to downside risks.
6. Incorporating It Into Broader Strategies
For many, the January effect is not a standalone signal but part of a larger seasonal analysis. It’s often combined with other factors like earnings reports, economic data, or geopolitical developments to form a more comprehensive approach.
The Bottom Line
The January effect remains an intriguing market trend, offering insights into seasonal stock movements and trader behaviour. While its relevance may have shifted over time, understanding it can add value to market analysis. For those looking to trade stock CFDs and explore potential seasonal trading opportunities, open an FXOpen account to access a broker with more than 700 markets, low costs, and fast execution speeds.
FAQ
What Is the Stock Market January Effect?
The January effect refers to a historical pattern where stock prices, particularly small-cap stocks, tend to rise in January. This trend is often linked to tax-loss selling in December, portfolio rebalancing, and renewed investor optimism at the start of the year.
What Happens to Stock Prices in January?
In January, stock prices, especially for smaller companies, may experience an uptick due to increased buying activity, caused by a mix of factors, including tax-loss selling, “window dressing”, seasonal cash inflow, new year optimism, and market inefficiencies in small caps. However, this isn’t guaranteed and depends on various contextual factors.
Is December a Good Month for Stocks?
December is often positive for stocks, driven by the “Santa Claus rally,” where prices rise in the final weeks of the year. However, tax-loss selling, overall market sentiment and geopolitical and economic shifts can create mixed outcomes for the stock market, especially for small-cap stocks.
Is New Year's Eve a Stock Market Holiday?
No, the stock market is typically open for a shortened trading session on New Year's Eve. Normal trading hours resume after the New Year holiday.
Which Months Could Be the Best for Stocks?
According to theory, November through April, including January, have been months when stocks performed well. This trend is often attributed to seasonal factors and increased investor activity. However, trends change over time due to increasing market transparency and accessibility. Therefore, traders shouldn’t rely on statistics and should conduct comprehensive research.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
S&P 500 INDEX ,,, UPDATE CHARTThe S&P 500 index is approaching a critical level, and if it successfully stabilizes above this threshold, we can anticipate further market growth. Meanwhile, the following stocks are experiencing pullbacks to previously broken levels. If these pullbacks are completed and accompanied by a bullish trigger, they may present attractive buying opportunities.
BKR-ZBRA-AON-LRCX-AMAT
The gap was closed Some colleagues say that based on the 4H chart, we will have a correction to the 5970 area. Based on the support from the accumulated volume, which is more important, this is the 6070 area. But I ask what is the basis/fundamental of this correction and why now?
I do not see any reason for this. Moreover, at the close of the session yesterday there were strong purchases, probably an entry, as well as even at the close of the market. 1H support was not broken, and at the end we even returned above 5 and 15 min ones. The gap was closed and I do not see signals for such a correction. Please share your opinion?
SP500 market structure analysis on 4h and M15 timeframes- 4H swing is bearish => Current is pullback.
- M15 swing is bearish
High probability of price decrease following the main trend of 4H timeframe.
We can look for selling opportunities in the supply zone of 15min timeframe
Spx versus GoldMake sure you are on the right side of the macro capital flow trends when they turn via a Capital Rotation Event.
They can drastically alter your probabilities of success.
Spx lost over 86%, then over 94% and 88% versus gold.
No reason to go through that pain.
