US500/SPX technical analysisTechnical analysis for US500/SPX.
Another possible bearish count, with wedge containing a leading diagonal A or 1. If correct, wave 5 would stop short of 5684.1.
SPX500USD trade ideas
S&P 500 Update: Key Developments You Should KnowHey everyone! I wanted to share some important insights regarding the S&P 500 Index that could impact your trading and investing strategies.
Since July 15, 2024, the daily chart has been forming a rising wedge pattern, a bearish setup in technical analysis. Fast forward to December 17, the pattern completed, and we saw the first signs of a break in structure.
Here’s why this matters:
When a rising wedge breaks down, previous support levels flip into resistance zones.
It’s common to see a retest of the resistance to confirm the zone, and a false breakout can lure retail traders into poor positions before the market reverses downward.
Fast forward to today, January 16, 2025— the market just closed below the 50-day moving average, signaling potential weakness.
As we move further into the year, it’s crucial to stay vigilant, manage your portfolio carefully, and keep an eye on key technical levels. Remember, staying informed and disciplined is the edge you need in these markets.
Hope this breakdown brings some clarity to what’s unfolding with the S&P 500. Catch you next time!
S&P 500 SELL AT SUPPLY ZONE SMART MONEY CONCEPTHere on S&P 500 price has from a supply zone around level of 5958.26 and is likely to go down more so trader should go for short and expect profit target of 5875.26 with stoploss of 5986.41. Use money management
STAY AWAY FROM SPX 16 jan 2025Charts have been already showing that it needs to go down but now even indicators are showing downside.
Don't be a bull right right now. It is showing short trade now but I wont short
SPX Potential DropTrading in a nice descending channel.
Currently testing the upper channel resistance level which confluences with the previous moves 76.4% Fib Retracement adding weight to this level.
Potential for another test of the equilibrium, potentially even the lower channel trend line around the -27.2 Fib Extension.
Stops can be placed at break even / just above the upper channel trend line.
US500/SPX morning analysisTechnical analysis of US500/SPX.
Three different counts, one bullish (green) and two bearish (yellow, red).
Green count has primary double combo wave to complete the correction, bottom in at 5756.90.
Yellow and red counts both have an expanded flat correction starting on 20 December and are projecting wave (c) to complete above 6039.6.
Yellow count has the expanded flat as a wave ((B)), looking for ((C)) below 5500. Red count has top in, expanded flat as a wave ((2)), looking for wave ((3)) below 5500.
Bulls and Bears zone for 01-16-2025Yesterday RTH session price action suggests that traders were cautious.
Any test of yesterday's High could provide some sense for the day.
Level to watch: 5995 ---- 5993
Reports to look for:
US Business Inventories 10am ET
US Housing Market Index 10am ET
SPX UpdateMarkets look to continue going higher. I see at least 6600.
Melt up be melting up
Not financial advice
Bullish in Short TermBullish in the short term but it will face selling pressure from the top again. However, it will try to sweep liquidity from the top
Market SA – January 16th, 2025Market Recap – January 16th, 2025
Market Overview:
Following a positive CPI update yesterday, markets bounced, but the question remains—was it enough?
Equal-Weighted S&P 500: Moved above the 50 EMA briefly before closing below it, showing an Unbalanced Volume Divergence. This raises caution about a potential reversal or continued range-bound behavior.
Russell 2000: Slightly stronger than the S&P 500, staying above the 50 EMA and neckline of its chop zone.
VIX and Broader Market Indicators: VIX: Currently at 15.94, hovering in the lower range but not yet making a new low.
Growth stocks have improved, with the S&P 500 growth segment above its 20-day average at 59.80.
Industrials: Strong at 74, nearing reversal zones.
Energy stocks: Remain at the higher end of their 20-day average, but typically, this zone precedes declines.
Regional Updates: U.S. Futures: Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 show green pre-market numbers but face resistance at key levels.
Europe: Markets have shown strength but remain near resistance levels where prior declines have occurred.
Asia: Nothing notable; markets remain flat.
Sector and Commodity Highlights: Taiwanese Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC): Reported strong earnings, with a revenue surprise.
Crypto markets: Under mild pressure but holding within ranges.
Commodities: Silver, copper, and gold are trying to push higher but are still within established ranges.
Screener Results: 20% Gainers: 22 symbols, dominated by health technology, though mostly small caps (largest market cap: $13 billion).
8% Weekly Gainers:
227 symbols, with a mixed bag of sectors including energy minerals, finance, health technology, and consumer durables.
Notable names include Mazda , Nintendo , and a few energy stocks.
8% Weekly Losers:
147 symbols, also a mixed bag with no clear sector dominance.
Combination Screens: Bullish Combinations: 83 names.
Bearish Combinations: 20 names.
Plan of Action:
Neutral-to-bearish stance today, with a cautious outlook.
Watching for signs of a reversal or clear breakouts before committing to larger positions.
Leaning short in this chop zone, but the market remains undecided.
S&P 500 Index Rises to Psychological LevelS&P 500 Index Rises to Psychological Level
The US stock market experienced an upswing following the release of inflation data yesterday. According to ForexFactory:
→ The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) matched expectations at 2.9%.
→ The monthly Core CPI came in at 0.2%, below analysts' forecast of 0.3%.
Market participants interpreted this as a positive signal, leading to the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) gaining over 1% in the first 30 minutes after the data release.
As reported by Reuters:
→ Concerns about inflation eased, reviving hopes for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut, buoyed by a strong start to the earnings season (which we will cover in more detail later);
→ However, the rally may be short-lived, as inflation in the US remains uncomfortably high and could increase further due to aggressive tariff and tax policies under the new Trump administration;
→ Analysts caution that the Federal Reserve's rate is likely to remain unchanged for some time.
Technical analysis of the S&P 500 index chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows that since early August—when the Japanese stock market crash triggered concerns of a global recession, dragging US equities lower—the price has been in an upward trend, marked by a blue channel. The January mid-month low has provided a more precise point to define the lower boundary of this channel.
From this perspective, traders should note that the current S&P 500 price has reached a resistance zone, which consists of:
→ The median line of the blue channel;
→ The psychological level of 6,000 points;
→ The upper red line, drawn through the local highs of December 2024 and January 2025, suggesting that the decline beginning on 18th December could be viewed as an intermediate correction within the blue ascending channel.
This resistance area may serve as a key test of the bulls' determination to complete the correction and resume the upward trend.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
4-hr US500: Setting up for a 100 Point JumpAfter a 300-point correction from its December highs, the SP500 appears to be rebounding as bulls regain control. This recovery is supported by positive economic data, including strong NFP numbers, low unemployment, and CPI readings meeting expectations—all favorable for stocks. Additionally, the earnings season began yesterday with exceptional results from the financial sector, providing further momentum.
Technically, the index is breaking above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. If the price closes above the critical 5,980 level, it could signal a trend reversal rather than just a correction. A break above this level may trigger more buying, with upward momentum potentially pushing the price toward forming a Double Top chart pattern at 6,090. This target represents a potential 100-point profit for buyers aiming to capitalize on the move.
The combination of strong fundamentals and technical indicators suggests a favorable outlook, but sustained momentum will be key for bulls to maintain control and achieve these higher levels.
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.16.2024🔮
📅 Thu Jan 16
⏰ 8:30am
📊 Core Retail Sales m/m: 0.5% (prev: 0.2%)
📊 Retail Sales m/m: 0.6% (prev: 0.7%)
📊 Unemployment Claims: 210K (prev: 201K)
📊 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: -5.2 (prev: -16.4)
💡 Market Insights:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
On a gap up, we will hold and run higher. Weekly will pin it down.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
Craziest thing was the amount of people trying to call the top today. For tomorrow, any dip would be bought back up unless people start being unanimously bullish.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
Instead of a decisive move, it will be volatile, so daytrade.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
Falling Down the StairsIn this chart I talk about the pattern in the S&P .
There is just no way to know where it will end up.
What do you guys think? Where will it go in your opinion ??
Speculative shortBearish divergence on 15m, 1h. Gonna short it atleast to 5907 - volumes are there. Maybe will go lower to 5880, most likely will only add longs there.
US500 As Possible Bullish in Wave PatternUS500 in terms of an ABCDE wave pattern. Based on your analysis, the current strong support level is around 5,800, and you anticipate a potential upward movement from that level.
if the price does indeed find support at 5,800, the next move could be a bullish impulse through the mentioned resistance areas. The ABCDE wave pattern you mentioned could indicate a corrective move or an ongoing bullish trend. If the price breaks through the 5,900-6,035 zone, that would suggest a continuation of the bullish momentum.
Rate Share Your Idea What's Going on Thanks.
S&P500: Every January same rally starting. Target = 6,950.S&P500 is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.738, MACD = -35.090, ADX = 24.753) but just turned marginally bullish on 1W (RSI = 55.182) today. This technically signifies the market's enormous upside potential on the long term. The 2 year pattern is a Channel Up after all and every January since 2023, a new rally starts which exceeds +20% in gains. As long as the 1W MA50 supports, the bullish trend will be dominant. We are aiming for another +21% rise like the previous Jan 2024 rally (TP = 6,950).
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15-1 S&P:It remains to be seen what the stock market will do if inflation in the US fails to materialize. The CPI was disappointing today. Core CPI m/m is 0.2% was 0.3%, CPI m/m is 0.4% was 0.3%, CPI y/y is 2.9%, was 2.7%. The S&P has a score of neutral today consisting of Score 3, Cot Data -2, Retail Sentiment -2, Seasonality 2, Trend reading -1, GDP 1, Manufacturing PMI 1, Services PMI 1, Retail Sales 1, Inflation 1, Employment Change 1, Unemployment Rate 1, Interest Rates -1. we have a buy range at 5,944.
S&P Scenario 2.1.2025In this market, in order to consider some long setups, we need to hold the 6060 level or something around it, and since we didn't hold this support, we had a way to go short after the breakout. Now I see a scenario like this: the market should come for the sfp below the low as shown, or it will start to rise directly into the long, but as long as we are below the 6060 level, I'm considering a long setup. I would take that if the sfp below the low was met.
US Inflation: A Break in Core Trends Sparks Market OptimismThe December US inflation data presented a mixed picture, but with a nuance that markets have chosen to interpret optimistically. After a prior week where robust economic data cooled expectations for rate cuts in 2025, the newly released figures offer a welcome relief.
The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.9% year-over-year, in line with market expectations, marking its third consecutive increase since September. However, the real surprise came from the core measure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Contrary to expectations of stability, the annual core metric fell to 3.2%. This unexpected decline has infused optimism into markets, creating a "glass half full" sentiment.
This key data, alongside the Producer Price Index (PPI) published the previous day, has triggered a positive movement in financial markets. US equities rose midweek, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.6%. Meanwhile, Treasury yields fell, and the US dollar depreciated. This market reaction suggests that investors see these numbers as an indication that inflationary pressures might be easing, potentially influencing future decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
The unexpected drop in core inflation is an encouraging sign, suggesting inflationary pressures could be diminishing faster than anticipated. Coupled with a moderated PPI, it bolsters the narrative that the Fed may have room to adopt a more accommodative stance in its monetary policy moving forward.
It is worth noting that the equity rally has also been driven by strong corporate earnings, particularly in the banking sector. Results from financial giants like JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs, which exceeded market expectations, have helped boost investor confidence.
While headline inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, the moderation in the core measure offers a glimmer of hope. Markets are now increasingly anticipating the possibility of the Fed resuming rate cuts in the second half of 2025, although the resilient labor market, with 256,000 new jobs created in December, remains a key consideration.
While it’s premature to declare victory, today’s data provides a more optimistic perspective on the inflation trajectory. It is crucial to closely monitor economic data and market reactions as the inflation situation evolves, particularly under the leadership of the new Donald Trump 2.0 administration.
SP500 - Bullish Continuation - Dow TheoryVANTAGE:SP500 has tested the daily support and currently experiencing a good bounce. I am expecting the bullish trend to continue!
Market Recap – January 15th, 2025 (CPI Day)Pre-market Overview:
U.S. futures are flat as the market awaits the CPI data release in two hours.
In Asia, markets were relatively uneventful. The 2-3 day gains in China remain intact, while Japan and Korea traded flat.
Europe opened green, supported by lower inflation numbers for November, but overall, markets remain range-bound.
Key Observations:
Bitcoin and crypto are holding on to gains from the previous day.
European rates are down today after peaking since early December.
The U.S. dollar is taking a breather, down for three days straight since its recent peak.
8% Gainers and Losers (Past Week):
Gainers:
89 names, primarily from health technology, transportation, and energy minerals.
Constellation Energy and Cheniere Energy (LNG) are the largest names among gainers, with most others being small caps (< $10 billion market cap).
Airlines and energy continue to show strength.
Losers:
302 names have declined 8% or more.
Technology services, producers/manufacturers, and health technology dominate the decliners.
Big names in this group include Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor, Toyota, Alibaba, and AMD.
Watchlist Highlights:
Names showing relative strength with good earnings growth include:
Hood (Robinhood), CEG (Constellation Energy), Root, Brose, Sierra Deo
Roblox (RBLX), Hubs (HUBS), Marvell (MRVL), Vistracorp (VST)
These stocks look promising but await broader market confirmation before making a move.
Technical Levels:
RSP (Equal-Weighted S&P): Chopping between 176.19 and 174.78. Watching for direction after today’s CPI numbers.
Plan of Action:
Focus on names that have been basing and are poised for quick 3-5 day moves if the market reacts positively.
If the market melts down, consider shorting larger names.
Taking a cautious approach at the open, as the first move might not be the correct one.
Additional Notes:
Positive numbers came out from Blackrock, among others.
Considering incorporating market movers from the pre-market into future notes.
S&P 500 Outlook: CPI Data and Earnings to Shape Market DirectionS&P 500 Analysis: Pre-Bell Outlook
Earnings, CPI Expectations Lift Wall Street Futures; Asia Mixed, Europe Gains
Wall Street futures edged moderately higher in pre-market trading on Wednesday as investors positioned themselves ahead of the release of the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from Washington and the kickoff of the fourth-quarter earnings season.
The CPI report, set to be released today, could provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.
Technical Outlook
The S&P 500 is likely to remain under pressure as long as the price trades below 5863. In such a scenario, a decline toward 5829 and 5781 is anticipated, especially if the CPI data comes in at 2.9% or higher.
Conversely, if the CPI data is below 2.8%, it could support a bullish momentum, with the index potentially rising toward 5937.
Key Levels
Pivot Point: 5863
Resistance Levels: 5888, 5937, 5969
Support Levels: 5830, 5802, 5781
Trend Outlook
Bearish trend while trading below 5863.
