Get started
S&P 500 IndexS&P 500 IndexS&P 500 Index

S&P 500 Index

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Seasonals

SPX500USD trade ideas

S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 28, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the recent weekly trading session, the S&P 500 did not succeed in retesting the Mean Resistance level of 6082. Instead, the index experienced a notable decline, reaching the Mean Support level of 5939 and narrowly approaching the Key Support level of 5827. Following this downturn, a significant rebound occurred, resulting in the establishment of a new Mean Support level at 5860. The index is now positioned to target the Mean Resistance level of 5967. Should the index initiate an upward movement from its current level and successfully surpass the critical Mean Resistance of 5967, it may continue to rise toward the Mean Resistance level of 6032, potentially reaching the Key Resistance level of 6143. Conversely, if the index declines from its present position, it may create a retest pullback to revisit the Mean Support level of 5860 before resuming further upward momentum.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Two Possible Trades - Which one will trigger?Two Possible Trades – Which One Will Trigger? | SPX Market Analysis 25 Feb 2025 Monday came in swinging, continuing Friday’s move and landing price right at the range low target. And what do we get? A beautiful V-shaped reaction—just like we discussed in detail during our Fast Forward mentoring call. Now we have two key scenarios unfolding, mirroring what we saw at the upper boundary of the range during the bullish breakout setup. Will we get a bullish turn, or will the market break down? Triggers are set, charts are marked—now we wait. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: Monday continued Friday’s momentum, taking price straight into the range low target, where we saw a classic V-shaped price reaction. While no pulse bars have appeared yet, the location of this reaction is ideal, lining up perfectly with our 6 money-making patterns. This gives us two possible trade setups, similar to what we saw at the upper range boundary during the last breakout assessment. Scenario 1 – The Bullish Turn ✅ V-shaped reaction at a key level ✅ If confirmed, we could see a move back up into the range ✅ Waiting for additional confirmation (pulse bars, momentum shift, etc.) Scenario 2 – The Bearish Breakout ✅ If price breaks below the range low, it confirms a downside move ✅ A clean breakdown could lead to a continuation of bearish momentum ✅ This would be a mirror setup of the bullish breakout from earlier Right now, both triggers are marked up on the charts, waiting for price to confirm the next move. Until then, it’s a watch-and-wait game, keeping an eye on any momentum shifts or additional signals. --- Fun Fact Did You Know the phrase “buy the rumour, sell the news” originated in the 18th century? It was coined to describe the sharp market moves surrounding Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo. Traders in the know made fortunes buying ahead of the news and selling into the ensuing hype! The phrase became famous when financier Nathan Rothschild supposedly capitalised on early news of Napoleon's defeat in 1815. He bought up British government bonds while others panicked and sold. Once the victory became public, prices soared, making Rothschild a fortune. It’s a timeless reminder to think ahead in the markets.
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 24.2-28.2 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 7th week of the base cycle (average of 20 weeks), 2nd phase. The February 24 pivot forecast attempted to slow down the bearish momentum from the triple top at the December 9 and January 29 extreme forecast levels, but its energy lasted only through Tuesday and Wednesday. The market reversed on Friday from the strong 5850 level, formed in November last year at the October 14 and November 18 extreme forecasts. Based on cycle timing and the chart, the situation resembles the completion of the 1st phase of a bearish base cycle. 👉 Strong-handed position traders with stops above the now triple-top level should have held their short position from January 24. The current futures price has not broken above it. Those who didn’t hold, I hope you opened a short position from the third top on February 20. The next extreme forecast is March 3. ⚠️ The retrograde Venus period begins, which I wrote about in early December. The start of retrograde Venus typically brings a market correction, while retrograde Mercury will add volatility from March 17. A great period for short-term trading. Retrograde Venus usually has a one-week lag, which would place it around March 10. ⚠️ This base cycle is likely to be bearish, with a short rise and a steep drop below the opening. I predicted this in early January. NASDAQ has already broken below the base cycle opening level. The market remains under the weight of two overextended long cycles, which I have written about extensively in past posts. These long cycles will complete in the current base cycle. However, I do not expect a correction to exceed 20-25%, as a major crash is unlikely before summer this year or spring next year.
CBOE:SPX
by irinawest
S&P 500 Breakdown | What’s Causing the Drop? The S&P 500 has broken down from a rising wedge pattern, triggering a sharp decline. Let’s break down why this is happening and what it could mean for the market. 🔍 Key Reasons for the Sell-Off 1️⃣ Rising Yields and Interest Rate Fears The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates remains a major driver of market movement. Recent economic data has delayed expectations of rate cuts, leading to a spike in Treasury yields. Higher yields make equities less attractive, pushing investors toward bonds instead of stocks. 2️⃣ Overextended Market & Profit-Taking The S&P 500 hit all-time highs recently, and many stocks had become overbought. Large funds and institutions may be taking profits, especially in high-growth tech stocks. This type of rotation can trigger a broader market pullback as traders lock in gains. 3️⃣ Technical Breakdown of Key Support Levels The S&P 500 broke below critical support at 5,866, which has now turned into resistance. The index also failed to hold key moving averages, confirming a technical breakdown. Volume on red days has increased, showing strong selling pressure. 4️⃣ Weakness in Mega-Cap Tech Stocks Big Tech stocks like NVDA, AAPL, and GOOGL, which have led the rally, are seeing a pullback. This weakness drags down the overall index, as these stocks have an outsized influence on the S&P 500. 5️⃣ Geopolitical & Economic Uncertainty Global tensions and rising oil prices are adding pressure to markets. Concerns about slowing economic growth are also weighing on investor sentiment. Earnings reports from major companies have been mixed, adding to the uncertainty. What’s Next? The S&P 500 could find support around 5,750 - 5,800 if the selling continues. A rebound above 6,000 would signal strength, but failing to reclaim key levels could mean further downside. The 200-day SMA is still holding, so bulls still have hope unless we see a deeper break. Is this just a pullback, or are we seeing the start of a larger correction? Let me know your thoughts!
SP:SPX
by CryptocurrencyWatchGroup
SPX needs to close above $6,700 next month to be bullish. The 3 month on a breakout indicator is doing a higher low which signals a market reversal. The Red line on the Breakout indicator is a simulation if SPX will close above $6700. Usually, the market tops at the red step average, if SPX can close above that, it will be a massive move to the upside, if it touches it or barely touches it, it might be on a reversal. The support is the Step Average Blue line but im looking for it to go easily on the Green Step Average line.
SP:SPX
by Theordertaker
NVDA Earnings - Must Watch EarningsNVDA Earnings Wednesday after market This is crazy that 1 stock may be the pain or gain for the markets in 2025 Glass Half Full -NVDA is a revenue monster -Earnings trend continues to point higher -Demand for chips remains high (minus DeepSeek scare and uncertainty) -19% weight on SMH -7% weight on SPY -8% weight on QQQ -NVDA bullish can single handedly lift the markets and renew optimism and risk appetite Glass Half Empty -NVDA is overvalued -NVDA hasn't hit all-time highs since Nov 2024 (with fakeout in Jan 2025) -NVDA's reign is over and competition is heating up in the chips space and AI arms race -NVDA bearish can be the wave of risk off that confirms current market concerns and fears It's a big deal - plan and trade accordingly. Thanks for watching!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
S&P 500 key levels to watch The S&P 500 has bounced off its earlier lows in the last couple of hours, after dipping to take out liquidity below Friday's low (6011) and key support around 6000. Where do we go from here? On Friday, the index tumbled sharply to close near the lows. Whether that marked a near-term market top remains to be seen. A downside follow-through would attract selling activity, but the long-term trend remains bullish. The short-term trend line has been broken, which could be a bearish reversal signal, as too could be the bearish engulfing weekly candle. Given how strong the markets have been in recent months, a correction might be welcomed even by bullish investors as it could create better buying opportunities. On the daily chart, the key level to watch is 6000—a psychologically significant level. This level has acted as both resistance and support multiple times. A daily close below this level could potentially lead to a decline towards the lower end of the recent range circa 5830, with interim downside target being at 5908. Below that, the 200-day moving average may come into focus if selling pressure continues. Resistance is seen at 6033 and then 6075, levels that were formerly either support or resistance. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
S&P INTRADAY oversold bounce back? S&P (US500) index pair price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation after a retest of an all-time high on 19th Feb ‘25. The key trading level is at the 6007 level, the consolidation price range and also the previous resistance is now a newly formed support zone. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 6007 level could target the upside resistance at 6057 followed by the 6106 and 6146 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 6007 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 5980 support level followed by 5967 and 5918. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
Financial Cycle (not Economic Cycle) - Chu kỳ tài chính Financial cycle: - 10Y down and sideway -> Gold up (*) + In phase (*): In 10Y down -> capital will flow to manufacturing, Real estate, industrials, etc. - 20Y up and reaching top -> Gold down and sideway (**) Correlate with unemployment rate: - Rise stronger as the (**) reach its ending and vice versa US10Y: - Interestingly, interest rate does not affect how businesses operate and innovate economically. In fact, rising interest in long-term -> Economy doing great, innovations prosper, allowing lenders to charge high
SP:SPX
by quvo
SPX Finally Moves, Will 6000 Hold?SPX Finally Moves – But Will 6000 Hold? | SPX Market Analysis 24 Feb 2025 Last week’s market action was like watching a cat decide whether to jump off a shelf—hesitation, commitment, regret, and then chaos. SPX pushed through the bull trigger on Wednesday, only to whip back through the hedge & bear trigger, finally showing some real movement on Friday. But before we get too excited, SPX is still stuck inside a larger range, with 6000 as the next key battleground. Will we see a range breakout or another rejection? Let’s dive in. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: SPX Moves – But Is It Just Another Range Play? Last week gave us plenty of action, but SPX hasn’t truly escaped its larger range yet. 📌 What happened last week? SPX broke the bull trigger on Wednesday 🚀 Immediately flipped back through the hedge & bear trigger 🤦‍♂️ Friday’s move finally opened things up 🔓 Now, we’re eying 6000 as the next decision point. 📌 Two potential setups: ✅ Range Reversal – Price rejects 6000 and moves back inside the range ✅ Breakout Trade – SPX clears 6000, confirming a new leg up Either way, I’ll be watching closely for the next trade setup. VIX Says ‘No Crash… Yet’ 📉 The volatility index (VIX) remains below 20, meaning: No imminent crash signals 🛑 Fear is elevated but not panicking Still room for surprises, but not full-blown chaos (yet!) If VIX jumps past 20 and keeps climbing, then we’ll talk about more extreme downside risk. Overnight Futures – A Small Bounce, But No Turn Yet 🌅 Futures are slightly green, but they don’t confirm: A major bullish turn ❌ A full-blown breakdown ❌ Right now, it’s more noise than signal. What’s Next? 📌 I remain bearish on my income swing trades 📉 📌 Waiting for confirmation—either: Bullish reversal (v-shaped price action shift) 🔄 Bearish breakdown (clean range break below 6000) 🚨 For now, it’s another waiting game—but one that could pay off big when the next major move arrives. --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? In 2010, the Flash Crash wiped out nearly $1 trillion in market value in just 36 minutes, only to recover almost entirely by the end of the day. The culprit? A single trader’s algorithm running wild. 💡 The Lesson? Sometimes, market chaos isn’t about fundamentals—it’s just a rogue algorithm losing its mind.
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
2
S&P500 Remarkable 16year Time Cycles call the Top and CorrectionThe S&P500 index (SPX) just made a new All Time High (ATH) and even though it hasn't picked up the pace since the initial very aggressive post-elections rally, it is entering a bullish phase. In fact that is technically the last rally phase of the Bull Cycle that started at the bottom of the 2022 Inflation Crisis in October 2022. The reason behind this is the index' very reliable and consistent Time Cycle pattern that is repeated over and over again within the 16-year Channel Up that had been holding since the bottom of the 2009 Housing Crisis. As you can see on this remarkable trading blue-print, ever since the index recovered the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) and turned it into its long-term Support, strong Cycles of Growth (Bullish Leg) and correction (Bearish Leg) phases became the norm. Using the 1M RSI specific overbought pattern, we can see that from those points onwards, the Bull Cycle usually took around 12 months before it topped (Higher High on the Channel Up) and then corrected. This suggests that by September 2025 we may have a new peak and it would be a good idea to have sold stock investments by then. The first two 12-month rallies (2014, 2018) posted +22.10% increases while the third (2021) posted +27.80%. As a result this gives us a potential range of 6800 - 7200 within which selling should occur, in preparation for the 2026 correction. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
5
Elliott Wave View: S&P 500 (SPX) Breaking to New All-Time HighShort term Elliott Wave in S&P 500 (SPX) suggests that pullback to 5774.1 ended wave ((4)). The Index has resumed higher in wave ((5)) and broken above previous wave ((3)) peak. Wave ((5)) is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((4)), wave ((i)) ended at 5871.9 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 5805.4. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 5964.69 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 5930.72. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 6128.18 and this completed wave 1 in higher degree. Pullback in wave 2 unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 5962.92 and rally in wave ((b)) ended at 6120.91. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 5923.9 which completed wave 2 in higher degree. The Index has resumed higher again in wave 3. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 6101.28 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 6003. Up from there, wave (i) should end soon, and the Index should pullback in wave (ii) to correct cycle from 2.12.2025 low before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 5774.1 low stays intact, expect pullback to find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
TVC:SPX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
SPX at a Critical Decision Point: Breakout or Breakdown?The S&P 500 has been respecting this rising channel (green support and red resistance) for an extended period. Currently, price action is testing the mid-range, making this a key level for future movement. Possible Scenarios: 1️⃣ Bullish Continuation → If SPX holds above the green trendline, we could see a breakout towards the upper resistance (red trendline), targeting 7,000+. 2️⃣ Bearish Breakdown → A loss of the trendline support could trigger a correction, potentially sending price towards 5,500 or lower. 🔍 Watch for: ✔️ Confirmation of support holding (bullish signals). ✔️ Breakdown and retest of the green trendline as resistance (bearish signals). ⚡ Trade Idea: • Long on bullish confirmation above trendline. • Short on breakdown + retest of support as resistance.
SP:SPX
by parraggon
11
(Read) Comprehensive Analysis of Potential S&P500 Market CrashThe S&P 500 Index, a barometer of U.S. equity market health, faces heightened scrutiny as analysts debate the likelihood and severity of a potential market correction or crash in the coming years. Synthesizing forecasts from leading financial institutions, historical patterns, and macroeconomic indicators reveals a complex landscape of competing narratives. This report evaluates the evidence for a near-term market downturn, projected crash magnitudes, and the interplay of factors that could catalyse or mitigate such an event. Historical Context of S&P 500 Corrections and Crashes : The S&P 500 has experienced 27 corrections exceeding 10% since 1928, with an average decline of 13.7% over four months. True crashes—defined as drops exceeding 20%—have occurred 14 times, most recently during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic (-34% peak-to-trough) and the 2022 inflation-driven bear market (-25.4%). Historical analysis shows crashes typically follow periods of excessive valuations, monetary policy tightening cycles, or exogenous shocks. The index’s current forward P/E ratio of 21.8 sits 32% above its 25-year average, raising concerns about overvaluation. However, this metric alone proves insufficient for timing corrections, as demonstrated during the late 1990s tech bubble when valuations remained elevated for years before the eventual 49% crash from 2000-2002. Current Macroeconomic Conditions and Risk Factors: Federal Reserve Policy and Interest Rate Trajectory: The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment creates policy tensions as core PCE inflation remains at 2.8% year-over-year (January 2025) against a 3.9% unemployment rate4. With the Fed funds rate at 5.25-5.50%, real rates stand at 2.45%—their highest level since 2007. Historical precedent suggests such restrictive policy environments precede recessions 70% of the time within 18 months. Earnings Growth and Valuation Concerns: Analysts project 14.8% earnings growth for S&P 500 constituents in 2025, driven primarily by the technology sector’s AI investments. However, this growth assumes no recession and continued margin expansion—a precarious assumption given rising labour costs and potential demand softening. The index’s Shiller CAPE ratio of 32.6 exceeds 1929 levels (32.5) and approaches the 2000 peak (44.2). Geopolitical and Systemic Risks: Ongoing conflicts in Eastern Europe and the South China Sea, coupled with U.S.-China trade tensions, introduce supply chain vulnerabilities. Energy markets remain volatile, with Brent crude at $92/barrel as of February 2025—a 28% year-over-year increase—pressuring corporate input costs. Divergent Institutional Forecasts for 2025-2026: Bull Case: Technology-Led Growth Continuation UBS and Goldman Sachs project 2025 year-end targets of 6,600 (+13%) and 6,400 (+9.8%) respectively, citing: AI-driven productivity gains adding 1.2% to annual GDP growth Fed rate cuts totalling 75bps by Q3 2025 Corporate buybacks exceeding $1.2 trillion annually Bear Case: Valuation Reset and Policy Error Stifel’s analysis of 139 years of market data identifies parallels with 1929, 2000, and 2020 manias, forecasting: A final speculative surge to ~6,400 (+26% from current levels) Subsequent crash to 4,750 (-26%) by late 2025 Decadal underperformance with real returns averaging 2.1% through 2035 Independent analysts like Sven Carlin warn of 30% corrections as normalized rates (10-year Treasury at 4.5-5%) pressure equity risk premiums. This aligns with the Buffett Indicator (market cap/GDP) at 188%—surpassing 2000 and 1929 extremes. Crash Probability Analysis and Potential Triggers Quantitative Models and Leading Indicators Recession Probability Models: NY Fed’s yield curve model: 58% chance of recession by Q3 2026 Conference Board Leading Economic Index: -4.1% annualized decline Technical Analysis: Monthly RSI at 72 (overbought territory last seen pre-2008 crash) Advance-Decline Line divergence since November 2024 Likely Catalysts for Correction: Trigger Probability Potential Impact Fed Policy Mistake 45% -15% to -25% Geopolitical Shock 30% -10% to -20% Earnings Recession 55% -20% to -35% Systematic Leverage Unwind 25% -25% to -40% The convergence of multiple triggers—such as stagflationary conditions combined with derivative market stress—could amplify losses beyond 30%. Sector-Specific Vulnerabilities and Opportunities High-Risk Sectors Technology: 35% of index weighting trades at 32x forward earnings. 40% of AI-related revenue projections lack concrete use cases. Consumer Discretionary: Rising delinquency rates (6.1% on auto loans) signal demand destruction. Real Estate: Commercial property valuations down 18% from peaks with $1.5 trillion in maturing debt through 20262. Defensive Opportunities Utilities: 4.2% dividend yield with 85% regulated revenue streams. Healthcare: Demographic tailwinds and 12.8x P/E multiple 23% below 10-year average. Consumer Staples: Pricing power demonstrated through 6.4% organic growth despite volume declines. Historical Crash Patterns and 2025 Scenario Analysis Comparative Scenario Modeling Scenario S&P 500 Path Probability Soft Landing 6,900 (+17%) 25% Mild Recession 5,200 (-12%) 40% Systemic Crisis 4,100 (-30%) 20% 1970s-Style Stagflation 3,600 (-39%) 15% The base case (40% probability) anticipates a rolling correction: Q2 2025: Peak at 6,400 on AI hype and Fed cut hopes Q3 2025: -18% decline as earnings disappoint Q4 2025: Partial recovery to 5,600 on policy response This aligns with VIX futures term structure showing heightened volatility expectations from June 2025 onward. Risk Mitigation Strategies for Investors Portfolio Construction Recommendations: Equity Exposure: Reduce beta to 0.8 through: 15% cash allocation yielding 5.3% in money markets 20% minimum volatility ETFs (USMV) 5% long-dated put options (Jan 2026 4,800 strike) Fixed Income: Ladder 2-10 year Treasuries capturing 4.6-5.1% yields. Alternative Assets: 10% commodities (gold, copper, uranium) 5% managed futures (DBMF) for trend following Behavioral Considerations Avoid performance chasing in Mag-7 stocks trading at 40x average P/E Rebalance quarterly to maintain risk thresholds Stress test portfolios against 35% equity drawdown scenarios Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty in Late-Cycle Markets The S&P 500 faces its most complex macroeconomic environment since the Global Financial Crisis, with valuation extremes colliding against technological transformation. While crash probabilities remain elevated (55-60% chance of >20% decline by Q2 2026), the timing and magnitude depend critically on: Fed Pivot Timing: Premature easing could reignite inflation, delaying cuts risks debt crisis AI Monetization: Current $4.3 trillion market cap attributed to AI must materialize in earnings Geopolitical Stability: 34 national elections in 2025 introduce policy uncertainty We should prioritize capital preservation through disciplined asset allocation while maintaining exposure to structural growth themes. Historical analysis suggests that even severe crashes (30-40%) present generational buying opportunities for those with liquidity and fortitude to withstand volatility.
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by Who-Is-Caerus