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SPX500USD trade ideas

S&P 500: Key Levels and Potential ScenariosThis analysis of S&P500 will explore both bullish and bearish scenarios, incorporating key levels and considering possible market and crowd psychology. Bullish Scenario: Potential Uptrend Resumption From a bullish perspective, if the S&P 500 maintains a position above the 5482 level, it could suggest a potential end to the current correction and a resumption of the major uptrend. A hold above 5482 might reinforce bullish sentiment, encouraging further buying activity, as traders may view this as confirmation of renewed strength. The index could then potentially retest the 5801 level, where it's possible that the index may encounter resistance on the first attempt. A successful break above 5801 would then open the path towards the 6135 zone, which represents a key upside target. Bearish Scenario: Potential Retest of Support Zones Conversely, if the S&P 500 fails to hold above the 5482 support level might trigger increased selling pressure, as traders liquidate positions. The index could then potentially retest the 5092 to 4833 support zone. This zone represents a critical area where buyers may step in, but a break below it would signal further weakness. Concluding Remarks In conclusion, the S&P 500's price action around the identified key levels will be crucial in determining its short- to medium-term direction. A sustained hold above 5482 could favor a bullish continuation towards 5801 and potentially 6135, while a break below 5482 might lead to a retest of the 5092 to 4833 support zone.
SP:SPXLong
by AccumulationPro
Bullish rise off pullback support?S&P500 has reacted off the support level which is a pullback support and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit. Entry: 5,478.47 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Stop loss: 5,349.10 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level; Take profit: 5,776.02 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by VantageMarkets
SPX 500 turns lower ahead of busy weekAhead of a busy week, the S&P 500 has found resistance at a key area of resistance near 5550. The Index had rallied in the previous three sessions, but with trade and economic uncertainty still at the forefront, investors are not rushing to chase this rally - and rightly so. May be they will still buy the dip as we head deeper into the week, though, given Trump's change of tone and optimism surrounding trade deals. For me the key support area to watch is around 5,300, but other areas of support including 5840 and 5400. Beyond trade negotiations and trade concerns, a flood of traditional economic data is set to be released this week. Key highlights include PMI surveys from China and the US, first-quarter US GDP, the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting on Thursday, and the critical US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. On top of all that, it’s the biggest week of earnings season, featuring results from Microsoft and Meta after Wednesday’s close, and from Apple and Amazon—four members of the so-called “Magnificent Seven”—reporting on Thursday. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
S&P500 INTRADAY resistance at 5510Global Trade & Geopolitics China may suspend steep tariffs on some U.S. imports, like medical equipment and ethane, to ease pressure on key industries—hinting at a more pragmatic trade stance. Apple plans to shift most U.S. iPhone production to India by late next year, while Walmart is helping Chinese exporters sell locally—both reflecting efforts to reduce reliance on China. U.S.-Russia-Ukraine: The U.S. will push for Russia to recognize Ukraine’s right to its own military in any peace deal. However, Trump suggests Ukraine may have to cede some territory. Meanwhile, reduced U.S. aid is increasing Ukraine’s exposure to Russian cyberattacks. Market Impact: Watch for shifts in trade-sensitive sectors, supply chain plays (especially in tech), and defense stocks as geopolitical risk evolves. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 5510 Resistance Level 2: 5660 Resistance Level 3: 5790 Support Level 1: 5110 Support Level 2: 4950 Support Level 3: 4815 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
Approaching the 200-Week SMA – AgainHistory doesn’t repeat… but it sure does rhyme. If all you did was buy the S&P 500 every time it touched the 200-week moving average, you would’ve: ✔️ Bought 2011, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022… 💰 Absolutely cleaned house. Now in 2025, we’re approaching the same level again. That SMA has acted like a trampoline for the last 15 years — will it bounce once more? 🧠 Food for thought as fear builds and the market cools. Let’s see if the buyers step in where they always have. 👀
SP:SPXLong
by SmartSignalss
S&P500: Bottomed on an Inverse Head and Shoulders.The S&P500 index is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 36.973, MACD = -126.240, ADX = 31.007) but long term appears to have bottomed on an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. In fact, the Head made a low on the Double Bottom and the bearish outlook is currently due to the Right Shoulder formation. A crossing over the dashed LH trendline and even better the 4H MA200, would aim for the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 6,280). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
S&P500 - The Correction Is Over Now!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is retesting massive support: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Over the past couple of days, we have been seeing a quite harsh stock market "crash" with an overall correction of about -20%. However, as we are speaking the S&P500 is already retesting a major confluence of support and if we see bullish confirmation, this drop might be over soon. Levels to watch: $4.900 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:SPXLong
by basictradingtv
60
S&P 500 Outlook Post-PowellBelow is a focused prediction for the S&P 500’s direction in both the short term (next few days to 1–2 weeks) and long term (next 3–12 months) following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on April 16, 2025. The analysis is based on Powell’s remarks, market reactions, and economic context, avoiding speculative overreach and grounding predictions in available data. Short-Term Prediction (Next Few Days to 1–2 Weeks) Outlook: Downward Bias (60%–70% Probability of Decline) Prediction: The S&P 500 is likely to face further declines, potentially dropping toward 4,800–4,900 or Morgan Stanley’s projected 4,700 level (a 7%–8% decline from the April 8, 2025, close of 5,074.08, likely lower post-speech). A temporary bounce is possible but expected to be limited. Key Drivers: Hawkish Fed Stance: Powell’s cautious tone, emphasizing persistent inflation (PCE at 2.3% headline, 2.6% core) and no urgency for rate cuts (rates steady at 4.25%–4.5%), has dampened hopes for monetary easing. His view that Trump’s tariffs could drive sustained inflation increases the risk of prolonged high rates, pressuring equities. Tariff Uncertainty: Powell’s remarks on “larger-than-expected” tariffs, alongside U.S.-China trade tensions and the World Trade Organization’s slashed 2025 trade forecast, fuel fears of a trade war, higher costs, and slower growth. Weak Sentiment: Declining household (March 2025 confidence at its lowest since January 2021) and business sentiment, as noted by Powell, could curb spending and investment, weighing on stocks. Market Momentum: The S&P 500’s 9% drop in the week ending April 8 and its decline during Powell’s speech signal bearish momentum. Technical weakness, with many stocks below their 200-day moving averages, suggests vulnerability. Potential for a Bounce (30%–40% Probability): Oversold conditions could trigger a technical rally toward 5,200–5,300, especially if trade policy fears ease (e.g., signals of negotiation) or softer economic data renews rate-cut hopes. However, Powell’s inflation focus limits upside, making a sustained rally unlikely. Key Levels: Support: 5,000 (psychological), 4,800–4,900, or 4,700 (Morgan Stanley’s target). Resistance: 5,200–5,300 (recent pre-sell-off levels). Catalysts to Watch: Q1 2025 GDP (due in ~2 weeks): Weak growth could deepen fears, while strong data might reinforce inflation concerns. Trade policy: Escalation (e.g., new tariffs) could drive further declines; de-escalation could spark a bounce. Inflation data (CPI, PCE) and consumer sentiment reports. Short-Term Verdict: Expect downward pressure toward 4,800–4,700, with a possible short-lived bounce to 5,200–5,300 if positive catalysts emerge. Monitor GDP, trade developments, and Fed commentary. Long-Term Prediction (Next 3–12 Months) Outlook: Cautiously Optimistic with Volatility (55%–60% Probability of Modest Gains) Prediction: Over the next 3–12 months, the S&P 500 is likely to experience volatility but could see modest gains, potentially reaching 5,500–5,800 (8%–14% above April 8’s 5,074.08 close) by mid-2026, assuming no severe economic downturn or trade war escalation. However, significant risks could cap gains or lead to stagnation/declines. Key Drivers Supporting Gains: Economic Resilience: Powell noted the U.S. economy remains “in a solid position,” with a balanced labor market (4.1% unemployment, 150,000 jobs added monthly) and positive consumer spending. If growth stabilizes (e.g., Q1 2025 slowdown proves temporary), corporate earnings could support higher valuations. Historical Trends: The S&P 500 often performs well in the second half of election years under a first-term president, with gains potentially extending into the following year. Seasonal strength could bolster markets if trade and inflation fears subside. Potential Fed Pivot: If inflation moderates toward 2% (e.g., due to weaker demand or resolved supply chain issues), the Fed could signal rate cuts by mid-2025, boosting equities. Markets historically rally when monetary policy eases. Corporate Adaptability: Companies may adjust to tariffs by diversifying supply chains or passing costs to consumers, mitigating earnings damage over time. Key Risks Capping or Reversing Gains: Persistent Inflation: If tariffs drive sustained inflation (Powell’s concern), the Fed may maintain or raise rates, squeezing valuations. Core PCE above 2.6% or rising CPI could trigger tighter policy. Trade War Escalation: A full-blown U.S.-China trade war or broader global trade disruptions could slow growth, hurt earnings, and push the S&P 500 toward bear market territory (e.g., 4,500 or lower). Economic Slowdown: If Q1 2025’s slowdown (weak GDP, souring sentiment) persists, consumer spending and corporate investment could falter, risking a recession. Morgan Stanley’s bearish scenario (4,700) could extend if growth weakens further. Geopolitical and Policy Uncertainty: Trump’s trade policies, combined with global risks (e.g., China’s response to chip restrictions), could keep volatility high, deterring investment. Key Scenarios: Bull Case (20%–25% Probability): Inflation moderates, trade tensions ease, and the Fed cuts rates by Q3 2025. The S&P 500 could rally to 5,800–6,000, driven by strong earnings and renewed optimism. Base Case (55%–60% Probability): Volatility persists, but growth stabilizes, and tariffs are partially mitigated. The S&P 500 grinds higher to 5,500–5,800, with periods of pullbacks. Bear Case (20%–25% Probability): Inflation spikes, trade wars escalate, or growth slows sharply, prompting tighter Fed policy or recession fears. The S&P 500 could fall to 4,500–4,700 or lower. Key Levels: Upside Targets: 5,500 (near recent highs), 5,800 (moderate growth scenario). Downside Risks: 4,700 (Morgan Stanley’s target), 4,500 (bear market threshold). Catalysts to Watch: Fed policy: FOMC meetings (e.g., May 6–7, 2025) and Powell’s comments on inflation vs. growth. Economic data: GDP, inflation (PCE, CPI), unemployment, and consumer confidence over Q2–Q3 2025. Trade policy: Resolution or escalation of U.S.-China tariffs and global trade dynamics. Earnings: Q1–Q2 2025 corporate earnings for signs of tariff impact or resilience. Long-Term Verdict: The S&P 500 is likely to see modest gains to 5,500–5,800 by mid-2026, driven by economic resilience and potential Fed easing, but volatility will persist due to tariff and inflation risks. A bearish outcome (4,500–4,700) is possible if trade wars or inflation worsen. Stay vigilant on Fed signals, trade policy, and economic indicators.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SnyperTA
1
U.S. Bulls Take Charge: S&P 500 Set to Break OutHello, 📊 S&P 500 Market Outlook – Pro-Bullish Perspective 🔥 Market Recap: The S&P 500 recently saw a significant dip, marking a 1-year low at 4805.92, largely attributed to the shockwaves caused by President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 2. This move sent markets into a tailspin, creating heightened volatility levels not seen since the early pandemic days. However, savvy traders recognized opportunity amidst the panic and entered strategic buy zones around those lows. Since then, the index has managed to stabilize above key technical levels, signaling potential bullish momentum building from the ground up. 🧭 Current Key Technical Levels to Watch: 1W Pivot Point (PP): ✅ Holding above 5224.13 1D Pivot Point (PP): ⚠️ Testing resistance at 5297.05 1M Strong Support/Resistance: ⛔ Acting as resistance at 5329.31 🚀 Bullish Confirmation Pathway: To fully confirm a bottom-up bullish reversal, we’re looking for: ✅ Sustained close above the 1D PP @ 5297.05 ✅ Break and hold above the 1M Resistance @ 5329.31 ✅ Momentum toward the 1Y PP @ 5550.97 If these levels are conquered with conviction, it opens the door for an extended upside move toward 5878.58, aligning with a broader bullish sentiment. 🛑 Cautionary Downside Scenario: Although currently less likely, a failure to maintain support above the 1W PP @ 5224.13 could reopen downside risk in the short term. We remain watchful of that level as a bull-bear pivot. 🌐 Macro Overview – Tariff Shock & Earnings Spotlight: Trump’s abrupt tariff move has reshuffled the global economic deck, and investors are still processing its implications. The S&P 500 is currently down ~14% from its February highs, but showing resilience. Earnings season is now center stage, with major players like Tesla, Alphabet, IBM, and Boeing under the microscope. ⚠️ Volatility Index (VIX) is down from post-tariff highs (~60) to ~30, still elevated from the long-term median of 17.6, signaling cautious optimism. 💬 CEO Sentiment Matters: As JJ Kinahan from IG North America noted: “The view of CEOs going forward has never been more important.” With traditional guidance uncertain, investors are leaning on transparent, scenario-based outlooks like United Airlines’ “dual roadmap” approach. 🔋 Magnificent Seven on Watch: Alphabet: -20% YTD Tesla: -40% YTD These leaders are key sentiment barometers. If they bounce, the broader market is likely to follow. 🏛️ Fed & Trump Tensions: Trump recently stated that Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s termination “cannot come fast enough,” pushing for rate cuts. Powell, however, remains cautious, citing the need for more economic data before acting. ✍️ Final Note – A Cooling Tariff War? 💬 According to Trump’s latest statement, the tone around tariffs is beginning to cool, hinting at possible de-escalation. This development adds further bullish tailwinds to the broader market outlook. ✅ Summary: We are leaning bullish here with the base-building process in motion. Key levels are aligning, volatility is easing, and clarity from corporate earnings could be the catalyst to propel markets upward. Watch for a clean breakout above 5329 — that’s where the real confirmation begins. Eyes on the prize: 5878.58 👀📈 The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes! No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost TradeWithTheTrend3344
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by TradeWithTheTrend3344
2
US500 - Will the stock market go up?!The index is located between the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, we can look for the next Nasdaq buying positions with an appropriate risk-reward ratio. The channel breakdown and the index entering the supply zone will provide us with its next selling position. The chief economist at Citigroup has stated that the imposition of tariffs in the United States constitutes a stagflationary shock to the economy. According to his estimates, there is a 40% to 45% chance of a recession. It is expected that GDP will increase in the second quarter, as consumers rush to make purchases ahead of the new tariffs. However, the most significant negative impact on U.S. economic growth is projected to unfold in the second half of the year. You may have noticed that recent economic statistics are no longer moving markets. The reason is simple: markets are forward-looking and trade on expectations rather than past data. Economic figures reflect what has already occurred, while market pricing focuses on what lies ahead. At this stage, current data has yet to fully reflect the impact of tariffs and trade tensions. Even if weaker numbers emerge, markets may have already priced in the potential resolution of the trade war and an eventual recovery. Experienced traders understand that today’s developments are already factored into prices. What matters now is the outlook for the coming months—the real driver of market direction. Ryan Petersen of Flexport noted yesterday that, three weeks after the U.S.imposed heavy tariffs on Chinese imports, bookings for ocean freight containers have dropped more than 60% industry-wide. He explained that the U.S. imports around $600 billion worth of goods annually from China, with those items valued at approximately $2 trillion at the retail level. He stated that the first ships carrying goods fully subject to the new tariffs arrived on Monday, and shipping volumes are expected to decline in the coming weeks. However, due to high inventory levels, the impact on the retail sector may be delayed. Petersen also expressed concern that a potential rollback of tariffs could introduce a new set of challenges. With ships currently being repositioned globally, a sudden wave of new orders could disrupt logistics networks—especially if markets perceive the suspension of tariffs as only temporary. In my view, no one really knows how this situation will evolve, as a large portion of imports consists of intermediate goods and components used in final products. My guess is that this could lead to a surge in transshipment and even smuggling, though it could just as easily echo the unexpected consequences seen during the COVID era. We are truly venturing into uncharted territory. Petersen concludes: “This is a strange era for global logistics, as we must simultaneously prepare for the unimaginable—like full U.S. self-sufficiency—while also planning for a return to something closer to normal trade relations.”
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by Ali_PSND
S&P500 Should the FED LEAVE POLITICS aside and finally cut??The S&P500 index (SPX, illustrated by the blue trend-line) has been under heavy selling pressure in the past 3 months, basically the start of the year, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell insisted once again yesterday that the Fed is on a wait-and-see mode, without the urge to cut rates. But can it afford not to do so? A detailed look into the past 35 years of recorded Yield Curve (US10Y-US02Y) price action, shows that when it flattens and rebounds, the Fed steps in and cuts the interest rates (orange trend-line). It did so last year but paused/ stopped the process in an attempt to get Inflation (black trend-line) under control to the desired 2% target. As you see on that 1M chart though, this hasn't always been beneficial for stocks as especially for September 2007 and January 2001, it took place parallel to the Housing and Dotcom Crises. This however happened both times when Inflation and Rates were both high. The Inflation Rate now seems to be at a low level (and dropping) that has been consistent with market bottoms and not tops. As a result, it appears that it is more likely we are in a curve reversal that is consistent with bull trend continuation for the stock market, after short-term corrections, in our opinion either post March 2020 (COVID crash) or pre-2000, which is consistent to previous studies we've made that the current A.I. Bubble market is in similar early mania stages like the Dotcom Bubble in the early-mid 1990s. So to answer the original question, we believe that the Fed can afford to cut the Interest Rates now and offset some of the medium-term slow in growth that the trade tariffs may inflict and as there are more probabilities it will do more good to the stock market than harm. Your thoughts? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
12
Bull in a China Shop. The S&P 500 Index After 100 Days of TrumpPresident Donald Trump's first 100 days in office were the worst for the stock market in any postwar four-year U.S. presidential cycle since the 1970s. The S&P 500's 7.9% drop from Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20 to the close on April 25 is the second-worst first 100 days since President Richard Nixon's second term. Nixon, after taking office as President of the United States (for the second time) on January 20, 1973, witnessed the S&P 500 index fall by 9.9% in his first 100 days in office, due to the unsuccessful economic measures he took to combat inflation, which led to the recession of 1973-1975 when the S&P 500 index losses of nearly to 50 percent. It all started in January 1973 in the best soap opera traditions of Wall Street, at the historical peaks of the S&P 500 index.. ..But less than two years later it quickly grew into a Western with a good dose of Horror, because the scenario of a 2-fold reduction of the S&P 500 index was unheard those times for financial tycoons and ordinary onlookers on the street, since the Great Depression of the 1930s, that is, for the entire post-war time span since World War II ended, or almost for forty years. Nixon later resigned in 1974 amid the Watergate scandal. On average, the S&P 500 rises 2.1% in the first 100 days of any president's term, according to CFRA, based on data from election years 1944 through 2020. The severity of the stock market slide early in Trump's presidency stands in stark contrast to the initial "The Future is Bright as Never" euphoria following his election victory in November, when the S&P 500 jumped to all-time highs on the belief that Mr. Trump would shake off the clouds, end the war in Ukraine overnight, and deliver long-awaited tax cuts and deregulation. Growth slowed and then, alas, plummeted as Trump used his first days in office to push other campaign promises that investors took less seriously, notably an aggressive approach to trade that many fear will fuel inflation and push the U.S. into recession. The S&P 500 fell sharply in April, losing 10% in just two days and briefly entering a bear market after Trump announced “reciprocal” tariffs, amid a national emergency that gave him free rein to push through tariffs without congressional oversight. Then Trump began yanking the tariff switch back and forth, reversing part of that tariff decision and giving countries a 90-day window to renegotiate, calming some investor fears. Many fear more downside is ahead. Everyone is looking for a bottom. But it could just be a bear market rally, a short-term bounce of sorts. And it's not certain that we're out of the woods yet, given the lack of clarity and ongoing uncertainty in Washington. Time will tell only... -- Best 'China shop' wishes, @PandorraResearch Team
SP:SPX
by PandorraResearch
S&P500 INTRADAY resistance at 5510Stocks are pulling back after Wednesday’s rally, pressured by renewed trade tensions. China stated that no deal talks are underway, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed scepticism over resolving the trade dispute. US futures slipped, the dollar weakened, and gold rose as investors sought safety. Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood warned that US equities, Treasuries, and the dollar may face further downside, noting the market has likely peaked. Deutsche Bank also trimmed its S&P 500 target, citing the negative impact of ongoing tariffs on US companies. It’s a packed earnings day: PepsiCo, Procter & Gamble, and American Airlines report before the open, while Alphabet and Intel are set to release results after the close. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 5510 Resistance Level 2: 5660 Resistance Level 3: 5790 Support Level 1: 5110 Support Level 2: 4950 Support Level 3: 4815 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
Trading Notes - April 26th I’m struggling to stay bearish on US stocks-bearish in the short-term as the sentiment is now mainstream. The negative news dominating the headlines could create a lot of potential for a surprise upside move in the near term. Yesterday’s steady SPX rally, despite no news, was impressive. We could easily rally another 2-4% in the short term. The sharp downside move over the last couple months does leave potential for a local lower high which would be concerning. If there are trades to be made, intraday ranges is where I’d put my focus on stocks (and not be tooo greedy). Bitcoin has the potential the put in a macro reversal if it closes the week strong. A swing trade entry at the 200 daily MA on BTC is still in play. SPX Technicals Volume profile: POC: $5609 Upside interest: $5750 Downside interest: $5303 The line in the sand over the next 2 months is the 5120 level - the August 2024 low. If we close June there, 6M bearish divergence on the RSI leaves potential for a prolonged bear market. But that’s enough long-term analysis at a news-driven time when technicals have little bearing on price action. What I’m focusing on this week: - Sizing down - Taking quick profits - Watching trump’s tweets
SP:SPX
by volatility_Viking
S&P500 INTRADAY resistance at 5510Earnings season heats up with major companies like Visa, Coca-Cola, Starbucks, UPS, and Pfizer reporting results. In Europe, HSBC announced a $3 billion share buyback, while BP shares dropped due to weaker cash flow. In Canada, the Liberal Party is set to win a fourth term, but likely without a majority, which could lead to a coalition-style government. Meanwhile, the Trump administration plans to ease auto tariffs on foreign parts used in U.S.-made vehicles, boosting Ford and GM shares in premarket trading. Market Impact: Watch for shifts in trade-sensitive sectors, supply chain plays (especially in tech), and defense stocks as geopolitical risk evolves. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 5670 Resistance Level 2: 5740 Resistance Level 3: 5820 Support Level 1: 5380 Support Level 2: 5310 Support Level 3: 5236 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
S&P500 Index End of Day Trend AnalysisS&P 500 Index Outlook: The index may experience bearish momentum starting around April 25th or 28th, with key support at 5160. If this level holds and bearish confirmation does not emerge, the bullish trend is expected to continue toward the target of 6109. Traders should wait for a confirmed short signal before considering bearish positions. Otherwise, the ongoing bullish momentum is likely to persist. The MastersCycle indicator has signaled a buy, with a suggested stop-loss at 5100. Disclaimer: This is a personal market view. Traders are encouraged to rely on their own technical analysis and always trade with an appropriate stop-loss.
SP:SPXLong
by Mastersinnifty
Option Insights – Trading the Greeks (Part 1 of 4): Delta Target# Option Insights – Trading the Greeks (Part 1 of 4) ## Delta Targeting Options are often utilized by traders as a leveraged tool, akin to generating lottery tickets. By selecting the appropriate expiration time and strike price, it's possible to achieve significant leverage on an underlying asset, potentially yielding high profits in percentage terms, albeit with a low probability of occurrence. However, trading options offers more than just directional bets on the underlying asset. Due to their dependence on various factors with distinct characteristics, option strategies enable flexible exposure management and innovative risk profiles. To fully exploit the potential of options, risk factors are quantified using the **Greeks** – Greek letters (not all of them) that assess the sensitivity of option prices to changes in different risk factors ("primary Greeks") or second-order effects ("secondary Greeks"). ### Primary Greeks: - **Delta** – sensitivity to changes in the underlying price - **Theta** – sensitivity to changes in time - **Vega** – sensitivity to changes in implied volatility - **Rho** – sensitivity to changes in interest rates ### Secondary Greeks: - **Gamma** – rate of change of Delta with respect to the underlying - **Vanna** – rate of change of Delta with respect to implied volatility - **Charm** – rate of change of Delta with respect to time - **Volga** – rate of change of Vega with respect to implied volatility For trading purposes, **Delta, Gamma, Theta, and Vega** are the most critical Greeks.\ They are depicted in the introductory graphs for Call Options, showing their behavior as a function of the underlying price across various levels of implied volatility. *(Graphs not shown here — you can add screenshots as image uploads if needed.)* --- ## Trading the Greeks: Delta The art of trading options is fundamentally the art of managing an option portfolio by **trading the Greeks**. For short-term options (from same-day expiration, or 0DTE, up to about three months), **Delta** is the dominant risk factor. The influence of other Greeks is limited to a narrow range around the strike price — this range becomes even narrower as expiration approaches. When managing an options position, **controlling Delta is the first and most critical step**. - Delta values range from 0% to 100% for long calls and short puts - From -100% to 0% for long puts and short calls - Delta represents the participation rate of an option in the underlying asset’s price movement Example:\ If an option has a Delta of 40% and the underlying asset moves by 10 points, the option’s price will typically move by approximately 4 points in the same direction. Delta can also be loosely interpreted as the **implied probability** that the option will expire in the money — though this is only an approximation. --- ## Delta-Neutral Strategy The most common Delta-targeting strategy is the **Delta-neutral strategy**. It aims to hedge the Delta of an options position by taking an **offsetting position in a Delta-1 instrument**. These instruments replicate the price movements of the underlying asset (e.g., the underlying itself, ETFs, futures, or CFDs). ### Example: - If an options position has a Delta of 40% and a notional exposure of 100 units - → Take a short position in 40 units of the underlying (or equivalent Delta-1 instrument) But:\ Delta is **not constant** — it evolves over time (**Charm**), with price changes (**Gamma**), and with changes in implied volatility (**Vanna**).\ This means the hedge must be **adjusted regularly** to maintain Delta neutrality. Adjustments are typically: - Made at discrete intervals (e.g., daily) - Or when Delta changes by a set amount (e.g., more than 5%) --- ## Delta Target Strategy (More General) The Delta-neutral strategy is a **specific case** of a broader **Delta target strategy**, where the Delta target is explicitly set to zero. ### Who uses Delta target strategies? - Option **market makers** to hedge inventory - Traders aiming to **isolate other risk factors** (e.g., volatility premium strategies like short strangles) These traders seek to: > **Capture the volatility premium** — the difference between implied volatility at entry and realized volatility after Delta target strategies with **non-zero targets** are used for managing portfolio-level risk when options are used alongside other instruments. --- ## Why Adjust Delta Target Strategies? The main reasons for adjusting: - **Gamma (convexity)**: Delta changes as the underlying moves - **Time decay**: - For OTM options: Delta decreases (calls), increases (puts) - For ITM options: Opposite behavior - **Changes in implied volatility or skew**: also affect Delta --- ## Coming Up Next: 📘 *Part 2: The Concept of Convexity and the Role of Gamma in Managing Delta Target Strategies* ---
TVC:SPXEducation
by parsifaltrading
S&P 500 | SPX500USD: Bulls Find Support — But Is It Enough?SPX500USD 12H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 🔍 OVERALL TREND 📈 UPTREND (Tentative) — Market structure appears to be attempting a reversal from a recent pivot low. However, the macro trend remains under pressure unless price clears the key resistance range above 5,950. 📉RESISTANCE 🔴 6,152.5000 — PIVOT HIGH | Dynamic Resistance Level 🔴 6,086.2943 — SELL ORDER II 🔴 5,952.1652 — SELL ORDER I 📊ENTRIES & TARGETS 🎯 5,884.4400 — EXIT BUY | TP 4 🎯 5,640.5683 — BUY ORDER | TP 3 🎯 5,482.3500 — BUY ORDER | TP 2 | Mid-Pivot 🎯 5,254.5432 — BUY ORDER | TP 1 📈SUPPORT 🟢 5,021.6218 — BUY ORDER 🟢 4,879.2150 — BUY ORDER II 🟢 4,812.2000 — PIVOT LOW | Dynamic Support Level 📊OSCILLATOR SUMMARY 🧭 RSI (14): 51.98 — Neutral 📉 MACD Level: -41.34 — Buy Bias Forming 🚀 Momentum (10): -36.21 — Positive Divergence Developing 📊 ADX (14): 21.08 — Early Trend Formation 📉 Awesome Oscillator: -87.21 — Bearish but Flattening 🧮MOVING AVERAGE SUMMARY ✅ 10/20/30 EMA & SMA — All Showing Buy Signals ❌ 50/100/200 EMA & SMA — Still Bearish, Suggesting Long-Term Pressure 📊 VWMA (20): 5,289.90 — Bullish Price Reaction Above VWMA 📏 Ichimoku Base Line: 5,158.19 — Neutral, Needs Further Validation 🤓STRUCTURAL NOTES Current price is battling between 5,300–5,400 resistance range — a break and close above 5,482 could trigger further upside Significant bullish reversal candle formed near the last pivot low at 4,812 Volume profile suggests re-accumulation; price attempting to reclaim 5,300 structure Momentum indicators show signs of shifting bullish, but not yet in strong confirmation territory TRADE OUTLOOK 🔎 📈 Bullish bias above 5,254 with targets at 5,482 / 5,640 / 5,884 📉 Bearish pressure reactivates if price rejects 5,482 and closes below 5,021 👀 Monitor ADX for trend confirmation — under 25 = caution; above 25 = trend validation 🧪STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION CONSERVATIVE APPROACH (Reversal Play): — Entry: 5,254.54 — Targets: 5,482.35 / 5,640.56 / 5,884.44 — SL: Below 5,021.62 HIGH-RISK SCALP (Resistance Fade): — Sell Order near 5,952.16 or 6,086.29 — Targets: 5,640 / 5,482 — SL: Above 6,152.50 “Discipline | Consistency | PAY-tience™”
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by ProfessorCEWard