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SPX500USD trade ideas

Entire S and P history in one chart. Approaching a neck-snapper!Here is a chart of the entire S and P history versus total currency in circulation. This gives bubble periods (anytime the value is over 2) and times when the market crashed after being in a bubble. If you notice we are fast approaching the line that broke the neck of the market in the 60s and 2000 dotcom bust. If we clear that line, hold on to your hats because we are going into full blown speculative mania like just before the Great Depression! In fact maybe the AI-crypto bubble will be exactly like the Great Depression, AI causing mass unemployment and global poverty.
SP:SPXShort
by CryptoTaoist
S&P 500 Monthly Volatility Analysis From 1893 to July 2025Most of the time, the S&P 500 is seen as a low-volatility index when compared to most individual stocks, small-cap indexes, or indexes from other countries. However, most investors don't know exactly what volatility to expect from a statistical perspective. The Risk Distribution Histogram allows us to understand exactly how risk is distributed. S&P 500 Statistical Risk Distribution Here are some highlights from what we get from the analysis. Some of this data might actually surprise investors. The data is monthly: 27% of all months have volatility under 0.68% 80% of all months' volatility was under 4.79% 5% of all months had a volatility of over 7% If we can call a volatility over 25% a severe crash or "grey" swan, we had 7 of those events 3 months with extreme volatility over 30% This allows us to understand tail risk and plan ahead. While most times the S&P 500 is in the low volatility zone, extreme events can happen. What can we learn from this? Prepare for rare but possible high-volatility events. Understand the 80/20 rule. Most months are very low volatility, but 20% of them will have a volatility higher than 5% approximately. Avoid overconfidence in stability Plan for long-term horizons. High volatility tends to "dissipate" in the long term. This is why it's important not to discard rare high-volatility events, especially when the investor is in need of liquidity. This risk analysis can be done for any ticker.
SP:SPXEducation
by HenriqueCentieiro
S&P 500 Index Wave Analysis – 25 July 2025 - S&P 500 Index broke key resistance level 6300.00 - Likely to rise to resistance level 6500.00 S&P 500 Index recently broke the key resistance level 6300.00 (which stopped the previous waves 5 and (B), as can be seen below). The breakout of the resistance level 6300.00 continues the active intermediate impulse wave (5) from the middle of this month. Given the strong daily uptrend, S&P 500 Index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 6500.00 (coinciding with the daily up channel from May).
SP:SPXLong
by FxProGlobal
SPX More upside potentialI've revised my previous count based on recent price action. I now see a potential minor Wave 4 (of Intermediate Wave 5) forming around the 6,500 level. This could present a reasonable opportunity to take some % profits, (for the cautious or short term traders) though I recommend being prepared to re-enter, as I still believe we are ultimately headed toward the 6,650–6,720 range before a larger-scale correction sets in. Taking some profits around 6,500 may be a prudent move, or alternatively, you can continue holding while adjusting your trailing stops accordingly. Generally and in most cases its best to exhaust you bullish counts in Elliot . On the right hand side i am showing SPX/ DXY which is typically a more accurate and discernable wave pattern then the SPX alone. FYI
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by wolffarchitecture
SPX 0DTE TRADE IDEA – JULY 25, 2025 ⚠️ SPX 0DTE TRADE IDEA – JULY 25, 2025 ⚠️ 🔻 Bearish Bias with Weak Volume – Max Pain Looming at 6325 ⸻ 📊 Quick Market Snapshot: • 💥 Price below VWAP • 🧊 Weak Volume • 📉 Max Pain @ 6325 = downside pressure • ⚖️ Mixed Options Flow = no clear bullish conviction ⸻ 🤖 Model Breakdown: • Grok/xAI: ❌ No trade – weak momentum • Claude/Anthropic: ✅ Bearish lean, favors PUTS near highs • Gemini: 🟡 Slightly bullish bias, BUT agrees on caution • Llama: ⚪ Neutral → No action • DeepSeek: ❌ Bearish → No trade ⸻ 📌 TRADE IDEA: 🎯 SPX 6365 PUT (0DTE) 💵 Entry Price: $0.90 🎯 Profit Target: $1.80 (💥 2x return) 🛑 Stop Loss: $0.45 📆 Expires: Today 🕒 Exit by: 3:45 PM 📈 Confidence: 65% ⏰ Entry Timing: OPEN ⸻ ⚠️ Risk Flags: • Low volume = fragile conviction • Possible reversal if SPX breaks above session highs • Max pain magnet at 6325 could limit gains or induce a bounce ⸻ 🧠 Strategy: Scalp it quick. Get in early. Exit before the gamma games explode into close. 📈 Like this setup? Drop a 🔽 if you’re playing puts today! #SPX #0DTE #PutOptions #OptionsTrading #MaxPain #SPY #MarketGamma #TradingSetup
SP:SPXShort
by quantsignals
Can the S&P 500's Ascent Continue?The S&P 500 recently achieved unprecedented highs, reflecting a multifaceted market surge. This remarkable performance stems primarily from a robust corporate earnings season. A significant majority of S&P 500 companies surpassed earnings expectations, indicating strong underlying financial health. The Communication Services and Information Technology sectors, in particular, demonstrated impressive growth, reinforcing investor confidence in the broader market's strength. Geopolitical and geostrategic developments have also played a crucial role in bolstering market sentiment. Recent "massive" trade agreements, notably with Japan and a framework deal with Indonesia, have introduced greater predictability and positive economic exchanges. These deals, characterized by reciprocal tariffs and substantial investment commitments, have eased global trade tensions and fostered a more stable international economic environment, directly contributing to market optimism. Ongoing progress in trade discussions with the European Union further supports this positive trend. Furthermore, resilient macroeconomic indicators underscore the market's upward trajectory. Despite a recent dip in existing home sales, key data points like stable interest rates, decreasing unemployment claims, and a rising manufacturing PMI collectively suggest an enduring economic strength. While technology and high-tech sectors, driven by AI advancements and strong earnings from industry leaders like Alphabet, remain primary growth engines, some segments, such as auto-related chipmakers, face challenges. The S&P 500's climb is a testament to the powerful confluence of strong corporate performance, favorable geopolitical shifts, and a resilient economic backdrop. While the immediate rally wasn't directly driven by recent cybersecurity events, scientific breakthroughs, or patent analyses, these factors remain critical for long-term market stability and innovation. Investors continue to monitor these evolving dynamics to gauge the sustainability of the current market momentum.
SP:SPXLong
by UDIS_View
S&P500 This is why every CORRECTION is a GIFT.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been steadily rising since the April bottom to new All Time Highs (ATH). On the grand 100 year scale, the February - March tariff fueled correction, has been nothing significant. The last true technical correction has been the 2022 Inflation Crisis because it touched, and instantly rebounded on, the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). This is not the first time we bring forward our multi-decade perspective on stock and in particular this chart. But it serves well, keeping us into the meaningful long-term outlook of the market. This suggests that since the Great Depression and the first signs of recovery after the 1935 - 1941 Bear Cycle, the market has entered a multi-decade Channel Up, which is divided into long-term aggressive expansion periods (Bull Cycles) and shorter term depressions (Bear Cycles). During a Bull Cycle, every test of the 1M MA50 is a instant cyclical buy opportunity and in fact that isn't presented very often. During a Bear Cycle, the market makes an initial aggressive correction below the 1M MA50, turns increasingly volatile for 5-7 years, trading sideways within the Channel Up with its second peak resulting into a 2nd correction that eventually breaks below the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line). That is what we call a 'generational buy opportunity' as in the past 80 years, it has only been taken place 2 times. Right now (again this is not something we mention for the first time), the market is at the start of the A.I. Bubble, with incredibly strong similarities with the Internet Bubble of the 1990s. In fact, relative to the Internet Bubble, it appears that we are on a stage similar to 1993 - 1994, before the market turned parabolic to the eventual Dotcom Bust of 2000. As a result, from a technical perspective, every 'small' correction such as the one we had this year, is a blessing in disguise (buy opportunity). As the index grew by 5 times during the Internet Bubble (300 to 1500), it is also very possible to see it approach this feat going from roughly 3500 (late 2022) to 14000 (by late 2032) and touch the top of the multi-decade Channel Up. Are you willing to miss out on this generational wealth creation opportunity? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
US500 - Can S&P Pass Critical Ratio / Liquidity ZoneS&P (Pepperstone CFD) Price has popped above the 1.618 extension, which is a key ratio zone. A bearish whipsaw in this area could be dangerous. However, if price continues to push through this level, it signals that S&P is entering a very bullish phase. The area above prior ATH resistance holds high liquidity. If price moves beyond this ratio band, it will signal that a reversal in this zone is unlikely. That said, if it’s still in this band when Trump tariffs are reinstated potentially on 1 August, then this is looking dangerous 🧐. (Fib trendlines lower in the chart). This analysis is shared for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by dRends35
4
Before the perma-bulls go bonkers… Before the perma-bulls go bonkers… no, I’m not calling for a crash or bear market (yet). But longer this bull runs, greater the odds of mean reversion. Further we drift from 2009 without tagging the 300-month MA, more likely a sideways decade begins. This will happen again. You can't say we are "early" in the bull market. That simply is not true. Early is in the few years after the 2009 retouch of that very long term moving average. Can the indices still go up? Of course. But understand where you are in the cycle.
SP:SPX
by Badcharts
Do you want to keep buying SP500?Hello all. I usually love to work analyzing volumes, times and key level, i am not used to check the standard indicators, but this time i'll made an exception. Lot of indicators (AO, MACD, RSI, OBV) are showing weakness on higher timeframe with a strong bearish divergence (like the one i am sharing now on AO). On smaller timeframe i usually ignore this signals, because they can result in a little retrace, but on higher timeframe like this one can be a strong reversal indicator. But this is not the only things that let me open this position. Going deeper into my analysis, i have a first key level at $6270. Once we will break below this level, i'll open my first sell order with a stoploss a little higher than ATH. If price will break below my second key level at $6120 i'll open my second short order. My main and final target is $5300 (around -16% from now) but i will consider to secure profits before this level. I'll update you guys, and let me know if you are agree with me or not. Cheers
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by SaliJournal
6
Unlocking the Power of ORB (Opening Range Breakout)Unlocking the Power of ORB (Opening Range Breakout): A Proven Strategy for Intraday Traders In the fast-paced world of intraday trading, simplicity and structure can often outperform complexity. One such time-tested strategy is the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) — a method favored by both discretionary and system traders for its clarity and adaptability. 📌 What is ORB (Opening Range Breakout)? ORB refers to the price range (high and low) formed during the first few minutes (typically 5, 15, or 30) after the market opens. Traders look for a breakout above or below this range, anticipating strong momentum in that direction. 🧠 Why ORB Works Volume Surge: The opening minutes see high institutional activity, creating genuine demand/supply signals. Market Psychology: ORB captures trader sentiment as news digests overnight and is priced in at the open. Defined Risk: The high/low of the range becomes a natural stop-loss area, allowing clean setups. ✅ Entry and Exit Rules for the ORB Strategy Having a consistent framework helps you avoid emotional decisions. Here’s how you can structure your trades using ORB: 🔹 Entry Criteria: Timeframe: Define your ORB window — e.g., first 15-minute candle. Bullish Breakout Entry: Enter long when price closes above the ORB high with volume confirmation. Bearish Breakdown Entry: Enter short when price closes below the ORB low with volume confirmation. ⚠️ Avoid entering on the first breakout candle. Wait for a close and retest, or a strong momentum candle for higher confidence. 🔹 Stop-Loss Placement: For Long Trades: Place SL just below ORB low For Short Trades: Place SL just above ORB high 🔹 Target/Exit Options: Fixed RR Target: Aim for 1.5–2x your risk as initial target. Mid/Outer Bands: Use indicator-drawn breakout bands (like those in LuxAlgo script) as profit zones. Time-based Exit: Close position by end of session if price stalls or consolidates. Trailing Exit: Trail your stop behind higher lows (long) or lower highs (short) after breakout. 📊 ORB in Action You can explore this ready-to-use TradingView indicator to visualize ORB levels in real-time: 🔍 Indicator: Opening Range with Breakouts & Targets (by @LuxAlgo) Thanks to @LuxAlgo team to make this indicator available. 🛠️ Highlights: Automatically marks the opening range Plots breakout zones and targets Ideal for intraday strategies Works across indices, forex, and crypto 📓 Integrating ORB into Your Trading Journal App If you're journaling ORB trades, consider logging: ✅ Symbol & timeframe ✅ ORB range (high/low) ✅ Breakout direction (long/short) ✅ Entry time & price ✅ Exit reason (target hit, SL hit, time-based exit) ✅ Notes: market sentiment, news drivers, volume confirmation Over time, this data will help you: 🔍 Identify which assets respect ORB best 📈 Tune your RR ratio and stop placements 🧠 Reduce decision fatigue by automating setups 🧪 Want to Automate It? Our trading journal app is ready with 🧠 AI-based journaling for feedback and refinement 🎯 Final Thoughts ORB is a classic — not because it’s flashy, but because it offers structure, risk control, and repeatability. Whether you're a price action purist or using smart indicators, ORB can provide a disciplined edge — especially when integrated into a journaling and feedback loop. 📌 Start small. Track results. Tune your edge.
EIGHTCAP:SPX500
by TATraderSid
US500 Bulls Assemble | Breakout Heist Strategy📈🚨 MASTER HEIST PLAN: “SPX500 ROBBERY – THIEF TRADING STYLE 🔥💸” 🚨📈 (The Ultimate Long Strategy Blueprint for Smart Day/Swing Traders) 🌍 Greetings to All Market Bandits, Bullish Burglars, and Chart Snipers! Hola! Bonjour! Ola! Hallo! Marhaba! 🙌 🦹‍♂️This is your friendly chart thief checking in with the latest SPX500/US500 masterplan! This isn’t just a trade—it’s a heist 🎯. We’re not here to participate, we’re here to dominate! Welcome to the Thief Trading Style, where we map, trap, and snatch those pips with ruthless precision. 🧠🔍💰 🚀 THIEF TRADE SETUP - SPX500/US500 A mix of technical sniper entries + fundamental black ops analysis = 💸 Maximum Extraction. 💸 🎯 ENTRY PLAN: THE BREAKOUT HEIST 📍Buy Entry Zone: Wait for the clean breakout + candle close above 6270.00. "The vault opens once we clear that wall. Let the bullish getaway begin!" 💥🚪📈 🛠️Thief Tips for Entry: Use Buy Stop Orders above resistance levels. OR layer in Buy Limit Orders near recent pullbacks (15/30m swing zones) using DCA Style (Dollar Cost Average layering like a pro). Want stealth mode? Set that alert (alarm), and strike when the breakout sings. 🔔🎯 🛑 STOP LOSS – PROTECT THE LOOT 🧨Set your SL smart—beneath the nearest swing low using the 2H timeframe for stronger structure. 💬 “Look, don’t gamble. A thief knows when to run. Set that stop where I showed ya, or risk losin’ the bag.” 💼💣 ❗Your SL should reflect your risk per trade, lot size, and number of entries. It’s your getaway plan—don’t mess it up. 💥 TARGETS – WHERE WE CASH OUT 🏴‍☠️Primary Take Profit (TP1): 6310.00 🏴‍☠️Secondary Take Profit (TP2): 6370.00 💹 Scalp Traders: Stick to the Long Side Only. Ride the momentum, but use trailing SL to lock it in. 🔍 THIEF FUNDAMENTAL INTEL: WHY THIS IS OUR MOMENT Current SPX500 bullishness driven by: ✅ Positive macro & geopolitical tailwinds ✅ Institutional positioning (COT reports) ✅ Intermarket analysis showing strong correlations ✅ Momentum building with sentiment and volume 📌 Stay sharp—check all your fundamental reports, news catalysts, and sentiment tools before executing your move. Smart thieves plan every detail. 🎓📊 ⚠️ NEWS RELEASE REMINDER 📢 News = Chaos. Don’t get caught in the spray: 🔒Avoid entering trades just before big announcements. 🚀 Use Trailing SL to secure profit if you're already in. Stay agile. Stay smart. Stay rich. 💼🚁 ❤️ SUPPORT THE HEIST – HIT THAT BOOST BUTTON! 👊 Liked the plan? Hit the Boost to join the elite robbery crew. Every boost fuels the mission. Every like sharpens the strategy. Let's build a team of smart, profitable traders. 🚀💸🔥 🧠 Remember: This is general analysis – not financial advice. Manage your risk like a true thief. Stay updated. Adapt fast. Don't get caught. 🕵️‍♂️ 🎉See you in the next Heist Plan! Keep your tools sharp, your charts cleaner, and your profit bags fatter. 🤑🔥
FPMARKETS:US500Long
by The-Thief
Quarterly Candle AnalysisQuarterly candle data going back to 1928 was exported and analyzed in Excel . The purpose of doing so was to identify candles comparable to the candle we had in Q2 of 2025 (last quarter) in terms of scale and form. Two properties of the candles were considered: 1. Candle Length as a % of Close (Column L) 2. Lower Wick as a % of Close minus Upper Wick as a % of Close (Column R) The product of these properties (Column S) was considered as the primary quantitative metric for this analysis. The two quarters determined to be most similar based on having green candles with forms similar to Q2 2025 were as follows: Q4 1998 Q1 2016 Both quarters were followed by at least 4 more bullish quarters, hence, the result of this analysis is bullish, as should be expected with such a bullish candle.
SP:SPXLong
by Skipper86
S&P500 push to new ATH? Key Developments: AI Drives Earnings Momentum Alphabet reported strong results, but flagged surging AI infrastructure costs, signaling increased capex ahead. SK Hynix posted record earnings and committed to expanding AI-related investments, reinforcing the sector’s critical growth role. Investor sentiment remains AI-positive, with capital rotation favoring tech and semiconductors despite margin compression risks. Banking Sector Boosted by Tariff-Driven Volatility Deutsche Bank’s FIC (Fixed Income & Currencies) trading revenue jumped 11% to €2.28B, its best Q2 since 2007, aided by global trade uncertainty. BNP Paribas also beat earnings estimates, continuing the strong showing from European banks amid market volatility. Trade & Tariff Watch The EU and US are nearing a deal on a 15% standard tariff rate, potentially stabilizing trade flows and market pricing. Trump’s broader reciprocal tariff push remains in focus, especially after the US-Japan deal. Investors are watching for signs of escalation or resolution with other partners like the EU and Canada. Fed in the Political Spotlight Trump visited the Fed’s construction site, criticizing costs and maintaining pressure on Chair Jerome Powell. Speculation about Fed leadership changes and political interference is unsettling, though markets have largely shrugged this off for now. Meanwhile, House Republicans are drafting a follow-up tax-and-spending plan, which could shape future fiscal policy and market expectations. Conclusion: S&P 500 Trading Outlook The S&P 500 remains buoyed by strong earnings, particularly from AI-linked sectors and financials, while geopolitical risks and tariff volatility are being absorbed as catalysts for trading profits rather than panic. Bullish factors: Strong corporate earnings (Alphabet, SK Hynix, Deutsche Bank), potential trade de-escalation (EU-US tariff deal), and AI momentum. Risks to monitor: Rising AI capex (impact on margins), political tension around the Fed, and tariff uncertainty. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 6387 Resistance Level 2: 6457 Resistance Level 3: 6502 Support Level 1: 6272 Support Level 2: 6224 Support Level 3: 6156 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation