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SPX500USD trade ideas

S&P 500 Index -- Weekly Volatility Potential Good Afternoon! This week, I want to talk about the CBOE:SPX and its weekly potential for how I read historical volatility to weight it then to implied volatility -- this creates my custom trading ranges. Implied ranges for this week are calculated at 4 DTE using my strength of IV method. You can find out more how I do this over at my highlights page on 'X' - Find me @askHVtobidIV We are entering a short week, with IV currently in the 89th percentile for the year ( 18.31% ) and resonating between bi-weekly ( 19.36% ) and monthly ( 15.13% ) historical values. Quarterly volatility trends ( 31.79% ) have risen more than 10% this year alone due to macro concerns and increased news from tariff uncertainties. This is creating a volatile environment that, in turn, only increases our trading ranges. Something I personally like. Near-term trends are above the currently high IV environment, suggesting further expansion. This provides premium value on what is happening to what is projected to happen and a “strength of IV” of >100% indicating rising volatility, slowly towards quarterly means, while resonating around monthly trends. If price action drives downwards, our gap from May 16th could fill around $5,692.56 with confluence of HV21 trends at $5,710.91. Conversely, I can see HV10 ranges with rising pricing action and good macro news with EU tariffs breaking $5,971.33—Expanding to the price of $5,995.95 with continuing expansion and regression towards means. Come back next weekend as I will review the chart to see how we developed! For those interested in volatility analysis and the application of weighted HV ranges to IV, I encourage you to BOOST and share this post, leave a comment, or follow me to join me on this journey.
SP:SPX
by splitmyIVandmelt
US500 - Will the stock market reach ATH?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. I expect the index to continue moving, and on the other hand, if the index declines towards a certain zone, you can also look for the next S&P long positions with a risk-reward ratio. Yesterday, a U.S. federal court halted the implementation of President Trump’s “Freedom Day” tariffs. The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that these tariffs exceeded the legal authority granted to the president and unanimously decided to revoke them. Nonetheless, Trump still retains the right to appeal the ruling. Following the court’s decision, President Trump promptly filed an appeal. In response, the White House issued a statement asserting, “The decision on how to handle a national emergency should not fall into the hands of unelected judges.” Meanwhile, the market reacted strongly to Nvidia’s latest financial report. The company’s stock surged by as much as 5.8% in after-hours trading, before settling at a 4.8% gain compared to the previous day. This bullish movement reflects investors’ confidence in Nvidia’s continued strong performance. Nvidia is actively expanding into new markets, including the Middle East—an indication that the company is poised for sustained growth even if its presence in China is constrained. The rally in Nvidia’s stock didn’t just lift semiconductor companies; broader markets followed suit. The S&P 500 index climbed to 6,005.75 points, representing a 1.7% increase from the prior session. According to the company’s announcement, Nvidia posted $44.1 billion in revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, marking a 69% increase year-over-year and slightly surpassing analysts’ expectations. Revenue from data center operations rose 73% to reach $39.1 billion. CEO Jensen Huang stated: “Our Blackwell NVL72 AI supercomputer—designed for reasoning and acting as a ‘thinking machine’—is now being mass-produced by system builders and cloud service providers.” He added, “There is enormous global demand for Nvidia’s AI infrastructure. Over the past year alone, AI inference token generation has grown tenfold. As AI agents become mainstream, the demand for AI compute will continue to surge.” A Reuters poll now projects that the S&P 500 will reach 5,900 by the end of 2025—down from the 6,500 level forecast in February. Similarly, the Dow Jones index is expected to close 2025 at 43,708, compared to the previous projection of 47,024 from the February survey. Separately, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported that the increase in U.S. bank profits was largely driven by growth in noninterest income. Bank earnings in the first quarter of 2025 rose by 5.8%, reaching $70.6 billion. While overall asset quality remains favorable, the commercial real estate loan portfolios continue to show signs of weakness. The number of “problem banks” declined by three, bringing the total down to 63. The banking industry also reported a slowdown in lending growth; the annual loan growth rate for the first quarter was just 3%, down from the pre-pandemic average of 4.9%.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by Ali_PSND
SPX500 H4 I Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 6001.65, a pullback resistance. Our take profit is set at 5849.37, a pullback support. The stop loss is set at 6153.88, a swing high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:SPX500Short
by Tradu
"US500/SPX500" Index Market Money Heist Plan (Day / Scalping)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "US500 / SPX500" Index CFD Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is to escape near the high-risk ATR Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (5500) then make your move - Bullish profits await!" however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level for Pullback entries. 📌I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs. Stop Loss 🛑: "🔊 Yo, listen up! 🗣️ If you're lookin' to get in on a buy stop order, don't even think about settin' that stop loss till after the breakout 🚀. You feel me? Now, if you're smart, you'll place that stop loss where I told you to 📍, but if you're a rebel, you can put it wherever you like 🤪 - just don't say I didn't warn you ⚠️. You're playin' with fire 🔥, and it's your risk, not mine 👊." 📍 Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (5200) Day trade basis. 📍 SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. 🏴‍☠️Target 🎯: 5750 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 💰💵💴💸"US500/SPX500" Index CFD Market Heist Plan (Day / Scalping Trade) is currently experiencing a bullishness🐂.., driven by several key factors.👆👆👆 📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro economics, COT Report, Geopolitical and News Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Index-Specific Analysis,Positioning and future trend targets with Overall Score...... go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗🔗 ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by Thief_Trader
SPX500 : We could look for mean reversion here. "London should buy again if US is Selling." This chart suggests a potential redistribution of liquidity across sessions, highlighting a play on inter-session trade balance and session highs/lows targeting. 🔑 Key Confluences: 1. Premium Zone Rejection Price is consolidating below a premium supply zone, rejecting near 5,926–5,930. EQH and BOS suggest liquidity was swept above the recent high. Bears defending weak high structure—potential for a fakeout to downside if buyers step back in from London or Asia. 2. Session-Based Imbalance Logic New York (NY) session drove into premium and is now distributing/selling. Watch if London/Asia step in to reaccumulate from the discount OB zone (~5,856–5,877). Volume spikes confirm institutional decision points — highest vol aligned with New York push into highs. 3. Equilibrium Reclaim Potential 5,901.41 is marked as equilibrium. Expect buyers to defend this zone if NY fades — if price reclaims EQ, bullish continuation is in play. Fail = revisit strong demand below. 4. ORB Range Context (0930–0945 ET) ORB high = 5,877.37 ORB low = 5,856.85 Price is above the ORB, reinforcing current bullish structure unless US session breaks structure down. 5. CHoCH + BOS Sequencing Multiple CHoCH → BOS → EQH sequences signal internal structure breaks, consolidating into reversal potential. If Tokyo holds current low (5,924 avg), price may spring higher during upcoming London session. 📈 Trade Bias: Bullish Bias (Conditional) Watch for a liquidity sweep → reclaim setup around 5,901 or deeper at 5,877 for a long entry toward 5,940+. 📘 Scenario 1 – Buy Setup: Entry Zone: 5,877.37–5,901.41 Invalidation: Below 5,856.85 Targets: TP1: 5,926 (retest of EQH zone) TP2: 5,940+ (true breakout) 🛑 Scenario 2 – Sell Setup: If NY drives price below 5,856.85, look for a break-and-retest of EQ for shorts into 5,830 zone (volume gap fill). 🧠 Institutional Flow Insight: This chart reads like a "sessional liquidity rotation": Tokyo: Buy programs London: Accumulated New York: Profit-taking / Distribution So if US sells, London may bid again, making this a great session echo play.
FX:SPX500Short
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
Establishing Real-Time Price Action!1). Place Fib tool wherever it works, as theses will be key levels of Buy/Sell entries! 2). Strike a trendline off of whatever works best! 3). Establish a 5-wave/ABC sequence that seems to work! 4). Remember, wave 1 defines directional bias of price action! 5). Wave 3 slightly broke above a previous high, therefore the upward bias is likely still intact! 6). It's all the same price action principles on any timeframe any Instrument! 7). Practice...It's actually quite simple! KEEP IN MIND, WAVE 2 COULD DROP DEEPER... AS IT REMAINS THE ACTIVE WILDCARD!
SP:SPXShort
by ScotThomsen
US500 – Buy the Dip Near Trend & EMA SupportTrade Idea Type: Buy Limit Entry: 5,870 Target: 6,020 Stop Loss: 5,820 Risk/Reward Ratio: 3:1 Duration: Intraday Expires: 28/05/2025 12:00 Technical Overview Price action continues to respect the primary bullish trend with recent buying off the 78.6% Fibonacci pullback level at 5,868. A bullish engulfing candle on the 4H chart reinforces a short-term momentum shift to the upside. The 20-period 4H EMA (5,864) is rising and should provide dynamic support near the entry level. The setup favors buying dips, aiming for a move to 6,020, while keeping stops tight below key support at 5,820. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:US500Long
by Signal_Centre1
S&P 500 (SPX500USD) – Liquidity Sweep or Continuation? | Probabi🕒 1H Chart | Smart Money Concepts | Volume | ORB Framework We are currently trading around 5,888, after a recovery from the equilibrium zone near 5,760–5,770, which served as a strong reaction point. Here's how we at WaverVanir International LLC are assessing probability-based outcomes using our DSS and institutional concepts: 🔍 Key Levels & Observations: 🟥 Premium Supply Zone: 5,925–5,945 shows signs of multiple CHoCHs (Change of Character), BOS (Break of Structure), and prior liquidity grabs. This zone is now a potential trap for late buyers. Prob. of rejection: ~70% based on historical confluence. 🟦 Discount Demand Zone: 5,742–5,770 is our equilibrium/discount reaccumulation zone with a high-probability reaction area. Swept liquidity clean on May 24–27 with volume spike confirmation. Prob. of support: ~75% short-term if price retraces with exhaustion. 📈 Trade Ideas (Probability-Weighted): Short Setup (Reactive) Entry: 5,928–5,940 (inside premium) Stop Loss: Above 5,950 (above weak high) Target 1: 5,860 Target 2: 5,785–5,765 (equilibrium zone) Confidence: 65–70% Long Setup (Reversion Play) Entry: 5,765–5,745 (bottom of imbalance) Stop Loss: Below 5,729 Target 1: 5,859 Target 2: 5,910–5,920 Confidence: 70% if sweep occurs with declining vol. 🔄 ORB Confluence: Opening Range Breakout (0930–0945) shows recent buy-side aggression, but this move is suspect unless volume continues climbing. A fade below 5,859 without impulsive volume confirms seller re-entry.
FX:SPX500Long
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
Monday Bounce from 4H Demand ZoneAfter taking a controlled loss on Friday, I came into Monday focused and clear-minded. Price tapped into a clean 4H demand zone and printed a strong bullish engulfing candle — a textbook rejection from imbalance. I waited for the 4H candle close before entering long. Risk was tight below the demand zone, with a clear target above — offering a high RR setup. This trade wasn’t about the day of the week; it was about respecting structure, imbalance, and confirmation. Pair: US500 Timeframe: 4H Setup: Bullish engulfing off 4H demand zone + imbalance fill Entry: After 4H candle close Stop Loss: Below demand wick Take Profit: Major clean high above imbalance Risk-to-Reward: Over 3R This is why I trade the 4H. One clean move. No stress. No noise. Just structure + patience. – THE 4H TRADER
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by Austin-August
S&P 500 Weekly PotentialVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all. This week with SP:SPX bi-weekly trends have risen to just below our monthly values and are currently expansive over the markets IV prediction. Right now as I see it, HV10 is going resonate alongside our monthly values showing continued strength over IV. We could full regression to quarterly means as we move our of corrective territory then see consolidation to cool the markets down. BOOST the post, drop a follow and comment, BUT don't circle back at the end of the week to revisit and observe how our trending markets preformed!
SP:SPX
by splitmyIVandmelt
Up again for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD retested the 4H FVG once more and made a (corrective) move down into the Daily BPR. This was exactly the move I've predicted and I hope you took some value from it. Now price rejected from the Daily BPR so next week we could see this pair go up again to the higher Daily FVG. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a bullish change in orderflow and a small correction down on a lower timeframe to trade longs. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 23, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: The S&P 500 Index demonstrated a consistent downward trend during this week's trading session, reaching a significant target at the Mean Support level 5828. The index is currently trending lower, targeting the Inner Index Dip at 5730, with additional marks identified at the Mean Support levels of 5660 and 5600. Conversely, the index has the potential to rebound from its present position, advancing toward the Mean Resistance level of 5860 and retesting the previously completed Outer Index Rally at 5955.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Is Trump Triggering a Mini Market Crack to Drive Capital into Tr📉 Is Trump Triggering a Mini Market Crack to Drive Capital into Treasuries? Recent remarks by former President Donald Trump — including threats of 50% tariffs on EU goods and pressure on Apple to manufacture domestically — have sparked sharp red moves across the U.S. markets. Which leads to a serious question: 👉 Could this be a deliberate strategy to induce fear in the stock market and push both institutional and retail money toward U.S. Treasury bonds? In a context where the U.S. government needs to issue and absorb massive debt, and where yields are rising to attract buyers, a sell-off in equities might: 💰 Boost demand for Treasuries 🔥 Justify aggressive fiscal or monetary actions 🎯 Reposition political actors as “economic saviors” I’m not making claims — just thinking out loud... Are we witnessing a calculated move to reroute capital from equities into U.S. debt, using fear as the vehicle? What do you think — coincidence… or strategy?
VANTAGE:SP500
by perezliz37
SPY ready to continue its up-trend?!?Now that price has pulled back, we’ve seen a reaction from the daily 20 EMA, forming what resembles a hammer candlestick. This could signal that the uptrend may be ready to resume. That said, Monday will be key. If the market continues to show strength, it may confirm a continuation to the upside. But if price drops instead, we could be in for a deeper pullback. ⚠️ Remember: just because we’re in an uptrend doesn’t mean the market can’t reverse. The market is unpredictable, and that’s why reacting to price behavior at each point of interest (POI) is so important. Stay flexible, manage your risk, and trade what the market shows you, not what you expect.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by GonzooTrading
Bear Case Requires Downtrend Action. Strong Bull Bias Otherwise.With the recent breaks the odds are strongly towards 5500 hitting and if that breaks the odds are greatly for far lower hitting but I want to take some time to make sure I am clear on the binary nature of where we are. The market is in a "Might go up, might go down" spot. Probably won't go sideways for long. I think we're probably going to see strong trends coming out of whatever decision is made here. First thing I want to really drill in for my bear friends is a sell off from the 86 means nothing at all. Most of the time this is a bear trap. We have broken the first level it may have bottomed so the bias is strongly towards the next ones hitting but having a strong bear bias at this point in historic SPX setup would have led you into a lot of trouble most of the time. If you fade trends the thing you always have to be worrying about is you've got this "pretty much" right but you're actually one swing too early. Because when that happens, the last swing is always exceptionally strong. Fading trends is hard because if you're wrong it trends against you and if you're 95% right it spikes against you in the most ruthless of ways. What makes this all the worse is that comes off a correction in the trend so you end up with a bigger zone in which you're wrong. For example if we began to rally here there's now about 4% extra you could be wrong while saying we're still inside the last high. Any time you're fading a trend and it's going well you should think of this risk. You have to map in the risk of a 161 head fake. These happen a lot. A common thing in blow offs. If you're right about the reversal after this move the short will be easy - but it's not easy to take if you're short bias into it. Given the broader context of everything, I don't think I favour the 1.61 head-fake being the outcome if we rally. If we rally again then we're seeing prolonged big chart trending action above the macro 4.23 and I've only ever seen trends getting stronger when they can break a 4.23. If the 1.61 breaks we can end up at the 4.23 - which would be a monster move. The instance of a 4.23 hitting from a 50% crash are extremely rare. Every instance of it there has been in indices has led to a massive trend decision. All instances of bubbles tend to have clear changes in their momentum when breaking 4.23 fibs. SPX is already above the 4.23 fib. The bear thesis has it this is a head-fake of that. It needs to be evidenced by a strong rejection of the head-fake. Earlier I mentioned the tendency of 1.61 head-fakes. This was the most recurring big obvious topping signal I found when looking at crashes. We'd usually dummy drop and then make a 1.61 spike out. This is the rule I use to tell a pending false breakout from a breakout. If it breaks the 1.61, I expect it will get at least very close to the 2.20. If it can not break the 1.61, then there's a strong chance it may be topping. Our current top is on the 1.61 hit and we're now into a retest of that. The 1.61 sell off is interesting because if it's a 4.23 reversal we have to be in a head fake above it and if it's a head fake we are looking for a 1.61 spike. These things make the speculative bets into the retest compelling and the pragmatic "What if" planning for a break worth covering. A 1.61 reversal would be expected to be a nasty event. A 1.61 reversal would take out the last low (by definition, it's just a bit pullback otherwise) and it would do this in a strong consistent selling manner. Which would be crash like on this timeframe. But the 1.61 reaction is not in any way prescriptive of a crash at this point. A common pattern is a big pullback from the 1.61 and then when it has been broken again it goes into a strong rally to the following fibs. This can top on a few of the fibs but full extensions in strong trends spike out 4.23. Inside the context of the overall building of the trend what is happening now would be insignificant overall. Even if dropping all the way to 5500. A full expansion of this would agree with the other fibs we had around the 10,000 level. Furthermore, a doubling period off the breakout of a 4.23 I'd consider to be a highly probable outcome. If the bear thesis is wrong here it can be wrong in a way that is irrecoverable. A persist bear will get you slaughtered. The case for a potential bear move here is extremely strong but that does also tend to mean the failure of it would be all the more spectacular. It makes a lot of sense to bet in these zones because there's a high chance you can at least break even on short term reactions and can perhaps make a lot in bigger reversals. It's pragmatic to be aware of what the larger risks of a reversal would be and how the swings in that would likely form. You have to think about these things ahead of time because otherwise it all happens too fast to really have time to think. Impulse decisions are usually bad. I have a high degree of confidence in the fibs being able to map out the important levels. My ability to know what that means ... not so much. I may or may not get it right. What is highly likely to be right based on 100 yrs of swings in SPX is the next major swing will relate to a previous swing in such a way that fib levels make it possible to get a good idea of the major highs/lows of the move. All the ways we can do that from here imply massive moves. If it's not 50% off the high it's 100% from the 4.23 break. How all this relates to where we are at this moment in time is we have to accept the potential of the bear bet being so wrong that even if there's a crash later it comes back to this price - meaning if it doesn't work here- entirely drop it and aggressively trend follow. If the bear bet is right we have to be inside of a 1.61 head fake of a 4.23. If we're inside of a head fake is has to sell off very consistently. We crash back to the break level. Price "Isn't meant" to be above that level and when the brief flurry is over it's nothing but selling. The consistency with which this style of rejection has is uncommon so it was really weird seeing it off the first 1.61 reaction. For the rejection thesis to be valid now the pullback in is we should be in the second trend leg which will complete the return to 4.23. If it's the second trend leg it can't be weaker than the first. The first was extremely consistent. From my perspective that's the bear bet. It's really specific for me at this point. If the bear thesis is going to be good we're inside a 1.61 head fake. The 1.61 is retesting and when it is rejected for a second time we're into a strong downmove to where the false breakout started. What it would take from the prices we currently are to turn me into a hyper raving bull that was discussing different bubble moves that may be about to build up is not a lot at this point. It would take very little to convince me to start to buy all the dips with tight stops and it'd not take all that much longer of that working for me to say it was extremely likely all the implied bear risk was behind us and it's all rockets and emojis for the next two years. I think when it comes to what the next big swings will be in markets it's important to be very objective because it's wild just how easily juxtaposed ideas can make sense. For example, AI. One could make a bulletproof case that we should expect a productivity boom based on AI. Lots of people can do much more. But you can make the inverse forecast that AI will be deflationary. Bringing prices down. Creating job losses. As jobs are lost, less money is spent - especially if things are deflationary because you can buy it cheaper later. Less money being spent is less business income and more jobs lost. Companies that survived would likely main use AI and it's easy to see how all that could end up being bad for markets. There are a lot of things like could go either way like that and have polarised reactions in the market but something related to AI is almost certainly going to happen. If AI advancements don't stall out rapidly they're going to start making real changes in the things happening in the world - this could easily justify a bubble or it could put prices into a race to zero. Then there's weird things like what happens when AIs become more and more of the trading volume - surely that's coming ... right? What will they do? It's something you can again make binary extreme cases for. You could make a case that the AIs would notice patterns of a topping market and start to trade in a way that brought about a crash. Or you could argue AIs might start to engage in some form of reward hacking and the way to optimise success is to drive the market vertical. I don't really see the point in narrative based analysis but if you do a thought experiment where you imagine the market either has crashed or has doubled rapidly it's now easier than it ever has been to find different viable ways you could work backwards to how events complimented that. It's wise to be agnostic and evidence based while we're at such a big decision level because the potential to be wrong big is so great and the likelihood you'll be bluffed into thinking you're right just at the worst moment is so high. Maybe bulls have had that now. But even if we sell and make a new low, this may turn out to be a second leg of a bear trap and be the low- being wrong from there as a bear would be even worse. Runs to new highs could come before a crash. If and when the decision is made it should be easy to make money. The 4.23 break would be far better to make money. The trend lasting over a year. A bear break would be trickier with the ups and downs of a bear market but lucrative for the correct strategies. The important thing is being equally acceptant of either outcome - and also accept the reality that neither of the implied outcomes may happen. Which would be a huge anti-climax for me. Really would. If whatever happens next is vanilla, I'd feel a bit cheated. The 4.23 rejection off a 1.61 spike out would be a very exceptional thing. It should be evidenced by exceptional action. If the bear trend is not persistent, there's a good chance it's not working. Up-trending through the resistance levels would make the bear case indefensible in my opinion and in the event of a typical 4.23 break make being bear bias into the future certain to fail no matter how good you are at it. The down move has a lot of proving it to do yet before it crosses from an expected move in a bullish pullback to a real threat of a trend break. At this point both would look exactly the same - what we see in the coming week is likely to be more telling.
SP:SPX
by holeyprofit
2