SPX500USD trade ideas
30 year logarithmic trend shows overvaluation30 year trend clearly shows overvaluation and a correction due.
The 10Y3M yield curve has inverted again...The 10Y3M yield curve has inverted again, just like in 2001, 2008 and 2020.
Is this the final inversion and market top before the crash?
Only time will tell, make sure you are on the right side when the time comes.
SPX a bounce or reversal?The S&P remains in a broader uptrend that began in late October 2023, but this week we saw a test to that structure. Price dipped below this key uptrend line but quickly reclaimed it, finding support on this line as well as the weekly’s 20 EMA. In Friday’s trading session, we saw a high-volume reversal, which could signal a potential bounce. The bigger question remains: is this just a retest before breaking lower, or the start of a true bullish reversal?
Right now, I lean toward this being a bounce rather than a full reversal, meaning we could see another attempt to break down through the October trendline in the coming weeks. That said, trades to the upside may still be viable if the market follows through early next week. If price pops above the daily moving averages, I think we are likely see some choppy action as the market decides whether to resume the uptrend or roll over again.
Key Levels to Watch:
6,010 Short-term resistance. Price must reclaim this level to continue higher.
5,954 Right on the long-term uptrend area. Holding above this level keeps the reversal in play, but failure increases breakdown risk.
5,840 Breakdown level. A break below this would signal a deeper pullback, likely toward the weekly’s 50 SMA.
Potential Scenarios:
🔼 Bullish A hold above 5,954 and a move through 6,010 could lead to a push toward the recent highs. A strong reclaim of the daily moving averages would shift momentum higher.
🔻 Bearish A failure at 5954 or a rejection at the moving averages may confirm this as a retest before another leg down. A break below 5,773 would indicate weakness, and could lead to a deeper correction.
⚖️ Neutral If price moves above the MAs but lacks follow through, we could see chop between 5,840 - 6,010, signaling indecision.
I'll be watching this week to see if this reversal holds or if it was just a retest before a breakdown. If selling pressure builds, we could see the first meaningful correction in months.
S&P Oversold bounce backThe S&P 500 (US500) index maintains a bullish bias within the broader long-term uptrend. However, recent price action suggests a period of consolidation following the retest of the all-time high on February 19, 2025. The market is currently at a critical juncture, with the 5918 level acting as a key support zone.
Bullish Scenario:
The 5918 level serves as a newly established support, aligning with the consolidation range and prior resistance.
A corrective pullback towards this level, followed by a bullish bounce, could confirm continued upside momentum.
Upside targets include:
6000 (50-day moving average)
6055 (20-day moving average)
6100 over the longer term
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed loss of 5918 support with a daily close below this level would invalidate the bullish outlook.
This could trigger a deeper retracement, exposing the following downside levels:
5854 (next key support)
5800, with a potential extension to 5777 if selling pressure accelerates
Market Outlook:
The 5918 level remains pivotal—holding above this support sustains the bullish bias, while a decisive break below it signals potential downside continuation. Traders should closely monitor price action and volume around this key level to assess the market’s next move.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Bear Swing Ends, Bullish Setup Begins - Here's what's next...Bear Swing Ends, Bullish Setup Begins – Here’s What’s Next | SPX Market Analysis 03 Mar 2025
Last week’s bear swing trade wrapped up beautifully, moving from range highs to range lows, before Friday delivered the perfect reversal. Price tagged the lower Bollinger Band, turned with multiple bullish pulse bars, and gave us a classic V-shaped price action entry—the perfect signal to exit the last bear trades and start the bullish swing.
Now, I’m targeting 6,000 and 6,140, with hedge/bear triggers set below the recent lows.
Meanwhile, Trump just dropped a bombshell over the weekend, hinting at a U.S. crypto reserve backed by five tokens.
Could this inject some extra spice into the markets this week?
Let’s dive in.
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Deeper Dive Analysis:
The bear swing from last week completed as expected, moving from the larger range highs to the range lows, where Friday delivered a clean reversal setup.
📌 The Trade Setup – The Bullish Turn is In
Price tagged the lower Bollinger Band – a key reversal zone
Multiple bullish pulse bars confirmed momentum shift
A V-shaped price action entry signaled the start of the bullish swing
Exited the last bear trades as the trend flipped
📌 Bullish Program & Market Structure
Now targeting:
Smaller range low from last week’s 30-min chart
Major resistance at 6,000 and 6,140
Hedge/bear triggers set below recent lows to manage risk
📌 Market News – Trump’s Crypto Reserve Idea
Over the weekend, Trump hinted at a U.S. crypto reserve backed by five tokens
This could spark volatility as traders absorb the implications
Will this push risk-on sentiment higher, or cause unexpected market shakeups?
The bullish program is in full motion, and I’ll be watching how price reacts at key levels this week while keeping an eye on how the market digests the crypto reserve news.
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Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? In 2010, a Bitcoin developer bought two pizzas for 10,000 BTC, now worth over $500 million—marking the first recorded Bitcoin transaction for goods.
💡 The Lesson? Markets evolve fast, and what seems trivial today could be worth millions in the future. With Trump hinting at a U.S. crypto reserve, could we be at the start of another major shift in financial history?
US500 Will Go Up! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for US500.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 5,973.19.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 6,138.47 level soon.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Bearish case for S&P500The price has been ranging between support and resistance for some time. If we take a look at seasonals, we will come to know that this index faces a bearish scenario in early March, and for that, we need a couple of confluences, like the violation of the trendline, which has been intact since Oct 23. For further confirmation for our short setup we will wait till price breaks the trendline and then retest it.
T/R zones
This idea is based on transient/recurrent zones
Very high probability (90%+) for the price to hit TP.
Probability was calculated on TF 1 min.
$spx500Nice channel, we will see resistance in mid line and if we clear we are off to 6200.
Might be worth a try. Hoping for a dip monday to get in.
SPX 0DTEAI enhanced using relevant data for 0 DTE trading strategy. Primarily using credit spreads. Utilizing options data in addition to these indicators (many of which are custom scripts). Will look at volume (VWAP, CVD, CVI), liquidity, support / resistance, etc to find the highest probability trade with AI analysis using all provided data within the chart.
SP500 - technical analysis I expect it to increase from this moment if the 4h demand zone is valid, if not I expect it to reach the D demand zone and from there to have a reaction
S&P 500 Elliott wave - shortNot many bulls on the SP500 anymore, I'm waiting for a correction and the possibility of another bounce upwards...
SPX..Sell a rallyI'd be looking to sell a rally in the coming week on any SPX strength
(Probably the best proxy is the SPY Index)
This is based on Wolfe Wave analysis.
You may get an oversold pop on NVDA's earnings (Wed.)
My target sell area is around 6060.
My cover is about 250 points lower.
If it happens then it happens.
Not financial advice.. do you own due diligence,
S.
Potential channelThinking of possible scenarios. You can ignore the arrows, just pay attention to the orange channel. It is not confirmed as long as there is only one bottom hit, but its bottom may serve as a support at some point. I'm not calling for a crash, but 10% correction in the near future seems probable to me.
SPXFilled gap at 5842.90, around first quarter of 2025 range. Should be a good long trade into March with targets at the remaining unfilled gap up near highs.
T/R zonesThis idea is based on transient/recurrent zones
Very high probability (90%+) for the price to hit TP.
Probability was calculated on TF 5min.
S&P 500 Drops Below 100-Day Moving Average The S&P 500 has broken below its 100-day simple moving average (SMA), a key technical level that many traders and institutions use to gauge trend strength. Historically, when the price falls below this moving average, it often signals a potential shift in market sentiment.
What This Means:
🔹 Potential Trend Reversal? If the index fails to recover above this level, we could see increased selling pressure, leading to further downside.
🔹 Bearish Confirmation: A sustained close below this moving average might attract more short sellers, reinforcing a downward move.
🔹 Buying Opportunity? If buyers step in and reclaim the 100-day SMA, this could be a temporary dip before resuming the uptrend.
Are we looking at the start of a deeper correction or just a pullback before new highs? Let’s see how the market reacts!
#SP500 #TechnicalAnalysis #MovingAverages #TradingStrategy
Bulls and Bears zone for 02-28-2025We had six down days in a row which we have not seen in a while. S&P is probably testing January Lows.
Level to watch: 5888 --- 5886
LongLong.
Looks like good trades
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice.
SPX the bullish case to 7k or is the top in now? or bearish?Here are the levels for bull or bear on the SPX based off a fib extension from the macro lows.
What is interesting is how the price has reacted off the 0.618 and 0.5 levels suggesting that it has further to go because we have broken out
However if you draw another fib extension from the lows it shows a top around 6100-6150 range where we are now.
Good luck - lets hope the bulls win out and crypto takes off too. If you do the same analysis on the Nasdaq fib tops out at 26,400 where fib is equal to 1. that implies Nas to over perform to 20-25% from todays levels hence supports the argument here for higher prices on the SPX
