SPX500USD trade ideas
SPX500 Near ATH | Earnings Week Could Fuel Next MoveSPX500 | Weekly Outlook
The S&P 500 continues its bullish run, trading at record highs as investors await a critical week of tech earnings. Reports from Alphabet and Tesla could be key in justifying the lofty valuations driven by the AI boom.
Technical Outlook:
The price is expected to consolidate between 6341 and 6283 before any decisive move. A short-term bearish correction may occur initially, but if the price holds above the support zone, a push toward a new ATH at 6341 is likely. A breakout above this level could extend gains toward 6375 and 6393.
However, a break below 6283 would indicate weakness, potentially driving the price toward the demand zone near 6250 and 6224.
Support: 6283 · 6250 · 6224
Resistance: 6341 · 6375 · 6393
Market Breadth Flashes Warning, but S&P 500 Still Holds SteadyThe S&P 500 continues its slightly positive movement. However, the momentum has been slowing, forming a long, wedge-like pattern. These long wedges have been a recurring feature in the stock market for years. From the monthly timeframe to the 1-hour chart, the market often forms wedges.
Wedge formations tend to break to the downside but can persist for a long time before doing so. The S&P 500 typically makes a sharp correction selloff, then recovers in a "V" shape, followed by the formation of another wedge. This pattern appears to be repeating once again. Still, there are some negative signals that traders should be aware of:
1- The impact of tariffs on growth remains a major unknown. Most tariff deals have not been finalized yet. While the Japan agreement is a positive step, negotiations with the EU will be more significant.
2- Many earnings reports will be released in the coming weeks, potentially shaping market sentiment. These earnings will reflect some of the tariff effects. AI and tech remain the key market drivers, so their results will be especially important.
3- Some breadth indicators are showing early warning signs. One of the most useful is the "percentage of stocks above the 200-day moving average." This metric shows whether the market is broadly participating in the rally or being driven by a few large-cap names. Typically, when the market weakens, traders rotate into mega caps. The rounded numbers below shows the weakness:
March 2024 Top: 5250 - Percantege Above 200 MA: 85%
July 2024 Top: 5675 - Percantege Above 200 MA: 80%
December 2024 Top: 6100 - Percantege Above 200 MA: 74%
July 2025 Current: 6309 - Percantege Above 200 MA: 66%
This shows that fewer and fewer stocks are managing to stay above their 200-day moving average while S&P making new highs. This is not an immediate red flag, but the weakening is apparent.
In summary, the slightly positive outlook remains intact for now and is expected to continue until the wedge breaks with some early warning signs. If that happens, a sharp selloff may follow, creating both selling and buying opportunities. In the short term, 6280 is the immediate support level to watch.
People don't like the truth! Let's be honest, people don't like honesty. They prefer ideas that affirm their own beliefs.
When I read articles and posts from newer traders, it's often from a place of "all in" diamond hands and the notion that things go up forever.
I've been a trader for over 25 years now, and the game isn't about making a quick buck, it's about making money over and over again. This got me thinking, the issue is when you deal with a small account you require leverage, small timeframes and of course the "shit" or bust mindset. If you lose a thousand dollars, $10,000 even $100,000 - what does it matter? That's no different than a game of poker in Vegas.
The idea of being 80% in drawdown, is alien to me. The idea of one trade and one win is also a crazy notion.
Instead of playing with the future, there is an easier way to work. This isn't about slow and boring, it's about psychology and discipline. 10% returns on a million-dollar account isn't all that difficult. Instead of aiming for 300x returns on an alt coin (due to the account size being tiny) You can make less of a percentage gain with a larger account size.
In terms of psychology - the word " HOPE " is used, way too often, it's used when you hope a stock or the price of Bitcoin goes up, it's used when you hope the position comes back in your favour, it's used when you want your 10,000 bucks to double.
This isn't trading, it's gambling.
The truth is, it's not the winners that make you a good trader. It's the way you deal with the losses.
Once you learn proper risk management, a downtrend in a market move is a 1-2% loss coupled with a new opportunity to reverse the bias.
As a disciplined trader, the game is played differently.
Let's assume you don't have $100k spare - prop firms are a great option, OPM = other people's money.
Remove the risk and increase the leverage, all whilst trading with discipline.
The market goes through many phases, cycles and crashes.
You don't always need something as catastrophic to take place, but if you are all in on a position. You need to understand that losses can be severe and long-lasting.
When everyone sees an oasis in the desert, it's often a mirage.
You only have to look at the Japanese lesson in 1989, when the Nikkei was unstoppable-until it wasn't. For that short space in time, everyone was a day trader, housewives to taxi drivers.
Everyone's a genius in a Bull market.
Then comes the crash. The recovery time on that crash?
34-years!!!
I have covered several aspects of psychology here on TradingView;
When it comes to trading, if you are able to keep playing. It's a worthwhile game. If you are gambling, it's a game whereby the house often wins.
Right now, stocks are worth more than their earnings. Gold is up near all-time highs, crypto, indices the same.
All I am saying is if you are all in. Be careful!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Wall Street takes off: 5 secret growth engines for #S&P500 Record closes for the indices on July 21 came from a powerful combo: a surge in #Google , a strong start to the earnings season, gains in #Apple (+0.6%), #Amazon (+1.4%), plus #Microsoft, #Meta Platforms, and #Nvidia . This momentum, coupled with market bets on imminent Fed rate cuts and hopes for a softening US-EU tariff conflict, pushed #S&P500 and #NQ100 to new all-time highs.
5 mega drivers that could keep #S&P500 and #NQ100 on the runway through 2025:
• AI capex and monetization: Top cloud providers are ramping up spending in computing clusters and generative AI solutions. The growing lineup of paid AI products (Google Gemini, Microsoft Copilot+ Apps, Amazon Bedrock) is starting to generate significant revenue, boosting profit estimates for the “Magnificent 7.”
• Fed policy easing: If inflation keeps drifting towards 2%, we may see the first rate cut of the cycle between July and September. Historically, every 25 bps drop in 10-year UST yields adds ~2% to the #NQ100 ’s valuation multiple.
• Record buybacks and dividends: #S&P500 companies hold $3.5 trillion in cash. After tax relief on repatriated foreign earnings earlier this year, several megacap boards approved accelerated buybacks — mechanically supporting stock prices.
• Easing tariff risks: Potential trade deals between the US and EU, and the US and Mexico, would remove the threat of 20–50% tariffs priced into valuations, unlocking CAPEX in manufacturing and semiconductors — sectors with a heavy #NQ100 weight.
• Resilient consumers and services: Unemployment remains near 4%, and household spending is growing 2–3% YoY. This supports e-commerce, streaming, and platform advertising — together making up ~40% of #NQ100 and ~28% of #S&P500 .
The current highs of #S&P500 and #NQ100 aren’t a random spike — they result from strong corporate earnings, expectations of Fed cuts, and hopes of trade détente. If even some of these five drivers materialize, the indices have a strong chance to stay elevated and set new records by year-end. FreshForex analysts believe current prices could spark a new rally, with today’s market conditions offering plenty of entry points in both indices and stock CFDs.
The Empirical Validity of Technical Indicators and StrategiesThis article critically examines the empirical evidence concerning the effectiveness of technical indicators and trading strategies. While traditional finance theory, notably the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), has long argued that technical analysis should be futile, a large body of academic research both historical and contemporary presents a more nuanced view. We explore key findings, address methodological limitations, assess institutional use cases, and discuss the impact of transaction costs, market efficiency, and adaptive behavior in financial markets.
1. Introduction
Technical analysis (TA) remains one of the most controversial subjects in financial economics. Defined as the study of past market prices and volumes to forecast future price movements, TA is used by a wide spectrum of market participants, from individual retail traders to institutional investors. According to the EMH (Fama, 1970), asset prices reflect all available information, and hence, any predictable pattern should be arbitraged away instantly. Nonetheless, technical analysis remains in widespread use, and empirical evidence suggests that it may offer predictive value under certain conditions.
2. Early Empirical Evidence
The foundational work by Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) demonstrated that simple trading rules such as moving average crossovers could yield statistically significant profits using historical DJIA data spanning from 1897 to 1986. Importantly, the authors employed bootstrapping methods to validate their findings against the null of no serial correlation, thus countering the argument of data mining.
Gencay (1998) employed non-linear models to analyze the forecasting power of technical rules and confirmed that short-term predictive signals exist, particularly in high-frequency data. However, these early works often omitted transaction costs, thus overestimating potential returns.
3. Momentum and Mean Reversion Strategies
Momentum strategies, as formalized by Jegadeesh and Titman (1993), have shown persistent profitability across time and geographies. Their approach—buying stocks that have outperformed in the past 3–12 months and shorting underperformers—challenges the EMH by exploiting behavioral biases and investor herding. Rouwenhorst (1998) confirmed that momentum exists even in emerging markets, suggesting a global phenomenon.
Conversely, mean reversion strategies, including RSI-based systems and Bollinger Bands, often exploit temporary price dislocations. Short-horizon contrarian strategies have been analyzed by Chan et al. (1996), but their profitability is inconsistent and highly sensitive to costs, timing, and liquidity.
4. Institutional Use of Technical Analysis
Contrary to the belief that TA is primarily a retail tool, it is also utilized—though selectively—by institutional investors:
Hedge Funds: Many quantitative hedge funds incorporate technical indicators within multi-factor models or machine learning algorithms. According to research by Neely et al. (2014), trend-following strategies remain a staple among CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors), particularly in futures markets. These strategies often rely on moving averages, breakout signals, and momentum filters.
Market Makers: Although market makers are primarily driven by order flow and arbitrage opportunities, they may use TA to model liquidity zones and anticipate stop-hunting behavior. Order book analytics and technical levels (e.g., pivot points, Fibonacci retracements) can inform automated liquidity provision.
Pension Funds and Asset Managers: While these institutions rarely rely on TA alone, they may use it as part of tactical asset allocation. For instance, TA may serve as a signal overlay in timing equity exposure or in identifying risk-off regimes. According to a CFA Institute survey (2016), over 20% of institutional investors incorporate some form of technical analysis in their decision-making process.
5. Adaptive Markets and Conditional Validity
Lo (2004) introduced the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (AMH), arguing that market efficiency is not a binary state but evolves with the learning behavior of market participants. In this framework, technical strategies may work intermittently, depending on the ecological dynamics of the market. Neely, Weller, and Ulrich (2009) found technical rules in the FX market to be periodically profitable, especially during central bank interventions or volatility spikes—conditions under which behavioral biases and structural inefficiencies tend to rise.
More recent studies (e.g., Moskowitz et al., 2012; Baltas & Kosowski, 2020) show that momentum and trend-following strategies continue to deliver long-term Sharpe ratios above 1 in diversified portfolios, particularly when combined with risk-adjusted scaling techniques.
6. The Role of Transaction Costs
Transaction costs represent a critical variable that substantially alters the net profitability of technical strategies. These include:
Explicit Costs: Commissions, fees, and spreads.
Implicit Costs: Market impact, slippage, and opportunity cost.
While early studies often neglected these elements, modern research integrates them through realistic backtesting frameworks. For example, De Prado (2018) emphasizes that naive backtesting without cost modeling and slippage assumptions leads to a high incidence of false positives.
Baltas and Kosowski (2020) show that even after accounting for bid-ask spreads and market impact models, trend-following strategies remain profitable, particularly in futures and FX markets where costs are lower. Conversely, high-frequency mean-reversion strategies often become unprofitable once these frictions are accounted for.
The impact of transaction costs also differs by asset class:
Equities: Higher costs due to wider spreads, especially in small caps.
Futures: Lower costs and higher leverage make them more suitable for technical strategies.
FX: Extremely low spreads, but high competition and adverse selection risks.
7. Meta-Analyses and Recent Surveys
Park and Irwin’s (2007) meta-analysis of 95 studies found that 56% reported significant profitability from technical analysis. However, profitability rates dropped when transaction costs were included. More recent work by Han, Yang, and Zhou (2021) extended this review with data up to 2020 and found that profitability was regime-dependent: TA performed better in volatile or trending environments and worse in stable, low-volatility markets.
Other contributions include behavioral explanations. Barberis and Thaler (2003) suggest that TA may capture collective investor behavior, such as overreaction and underreaction, thereby acting as a proxy for sentiment.
8. Limitations and Challenges
Several methodological issues plague empirical research in technical analysis:
Overfitting: Using too many parameters increases the likelihood of in-sample success but out-of-sample failure.
Survivorship Bias: Excluding delisted or bankrupt stocks leads to inflated backtest performance.
Look-Ahead Bias: Using information not available at the time of trade leads to unrealistic results.
Robust strategy development now mandates walk-forward testing, Monte Carlo simulations, and realistic assumptions on order execution. The growing field of machine learning in finance has heightened these risks, as complex models are more prone to fitting noise rather than signal (Bailey et al., 2014).
9. Conclusion
Technical analysis occupies a contested but persistent role in finance. The empirical evidence is mixed but suggests that technical strategies can be profitable under certain market conditions and when costs are minimized. Institutional investors have increasingly integrated TA within quantitative and hybrid frameworks, reflecting its conditional usefulness.
While TA does not provide a universal arbitrage opportunity, it can serve as a valuable tool when applied adaptively, with sound risk management and rigorous testing. Its success ultimately depends on context, execution discipline, and integration within a broader investment philosophy.
References
Bailey, D. H., Borwein, J. M., Lopez de Prado, M., & Zhu, Q. J. (2014). "The Probability of Backtest Overfitting." *Journal of Computational Finance*, 20(4), 39–69.
Baltas, N., & Kosowski, R. (2020). "Trend-Following, Risk-Parity and the Influence of Correlations." *Journal of Financial Economics*, 138(2), 349–368.
Barberis, N., & Thaler, R. (2003). "A Survey of Behavioral Finance." *Handbook of the Economics of Finance*, 1, 1053–1128.
Brock, W., Lakonishok, J., & LeBaron, B. (1992). "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns." Journal of Finance, 47(5), 1731–1764.
Chan, L. K. C., Jegadeesh, N., & Lakonishok, J. (1996). "Momentum Strategies." Journal of Finance, 51(5), 1681–1713.
De Prado, M. L. (2018). Advances in Financial Machine Learning, Wiley.
Fama, E. F. (1970). "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work." Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383–417.
Gencay, R. (1998). "The Predictability of Security Returns with Simple Technical Trading Rules." Journal of Empirical Finance, 5(4), 347–359.
Han, Y., Yang, K., & Zhou, G. (2021). "Technical Analysis in the Era of Big Data." *Review of Financial Studies*, 34(9), 4354–4397.
Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency." *Journal of Finance*, 48(1), 65–91.
Lo, A. W. (2004). "The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Market Efficiency from an Evolutionary Perspective." *Journal of Portfolio Management*, 30(5), 15–29.
Moskowitz, T. J., Ooi, Y. H., & Pedersen, L. H. (2012). "Time Series Momentum." *Journal of Financial Economics*, 104(2), 228–250.
Neely, C. J., Weller, P. A., & Ulrich, J. M. (2009). "The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market." *Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis*, 44(2), 467–488.
Neely, C. J., Rapach, D. E., Tu, J., & Zhou, G. (2014). "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators." *Management Science*, 60(7), 1772–1791.
Park, C. H., & Irwin, S. H. (2007). "What Do We Know About the Profitability of Technical Analysis?" *Journal of Economic Surveys*, 21(4), 786–826.
Rouwenhorst, K. G. (1998). "International Momentum Strategies." *Journal of Finance*, 53(1), 267–284.
Zhu, Y., & Zhou, G. (2009). "Technical Analysis: An Asset Allocation Perspective on the Use of Moving Averages." *Journal of Financial Economics*, 92(3), 519–544.
S&P500 INDEX (US500): Bullish Trend Continues
US500 updated a higher high this week, breaking a resistance
of a bullish flag pattern on a daily time frame.
I think that the market will rise even more.
Next goal for the bulls - 6359
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S&P500 Critical short-term crossroads.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up since for the entirety of July and right now is ahead of important crossroads. It either breaks out above the pattern or pulls back to price a new Higher Low.
Based on the 4H CCI and the similarities with the June 24 - 25 consolidation, there are higher probabilities to break upwards. That fractal reached the 2.0 Fibonacci extension after it broke out. We will wait for confirmation and if it's delivered, we will buy the break-out and target 6460 (just below Fib 2.0 ext).
Until then, being so close to the Channel Up top, makes a solid short opportunity targeting a Higher Low (bottom). The previous one was priced exactly on the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) so that's our target or 6250 if it comes earlier.
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If we want a 2020-2021 style run, we need a seasonal pullbackUS 500 Index SP:SPX AMEX:SPY AMEX:VOO August seasonal scenario: institutional participation remains light, being outperformed by leveraged dip buying retail. How long can they remain on the sidelines, missing opportunities for their clients, before FOMO kicks in? Remember that institutions aren't emotionally driven, unlike their retail counter parts. That being said, they're itching to get in. What will compel them? IMO, a 5% pull back will incentivize them to buy. The August seasonal pull back may provide just that opportunity. If it comes, what happens in late Q3 and the rest of Q4 will likely be similar to 2020-2021. The deeper the pull back, the more impulsive it will likely be, as retail and institutions will be temporarily in tandem. SP:SPX PEPPERSTONE:US500 AMEX:SPY AMEX:VOO
S&P500 sideways consolidation breakoutKey Developments:
Fed Politics: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for a review of the Fed’s $2.5B HQ renovation, continuing political pressure on Jerome Powell. This adds to the uncertainty around Fed independence and rate path.
Meme Stock Surge:
Opendoor soared 121% amid a retail-driven frenzy.
Major institutional investors are also chasing the rally, pushing broader equities to record highs.
However, upcoming Alphabet and Tesla earnings could be a turning point for momentum.
Corporate News:
Hewlett Packard Enterprise suffered a $985M loss in the Autonomy case—corporate governance and M&A risks in spotlight.
Sarepta paused drug shipments amid backlash—biotech volatility rising.
LA Times plans IPO—media valuations may resurface.
Crypto Moves:
Trump Media bought $2B in Bitcoin and related assets, aiming to become a crypto treasury.
JPMorgan may lend against crypto, signaling broader institutional adoption.
Tech & AI:
MIT’s Andrew Lo predicts AI will make real investment decisions in 5 years.
OpenAI–Oracle to expand US data center capacity by 4.5 GW—significant tech infrastructure tailwind.
Conclusion for S&P 500 Trading:
The S&P 500 remains supported by strong risk appetite, AI optimism, and crypto momentum, but faces near-term tests from key tech earnings (Alphabet, Tesla). Political noise around the Fed and signs of speculative froth (meme stocks) could introduce volatility. Stay bullish with caution—watch earnings and Fed commentary closely for market direction.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6340
Resistance Level 2: 6390
Resistance Level 3: 6457
Support Level 1: 6270
Support Level 2: 6224
Support Level 3: 6156
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S&P 500 H1 | Swing-low support at 38.2% Fibonacci retracementThe S&P 500 (SPX500) is falling towards a swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 6,291.07 which is a swing-low support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 6,270.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 6,338.29 which is a swing-high resistance.
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Waiting for a Clear Signal: Too Early to Short the IndexNothing interesting is forming on the index so far.
My outlook remains neutral.
I previously attempted to short it, but those attempts were unsuccessful. Now I need to wait for a more reliable entry point — the chart will show the way.
For now, I’m staying on the sidelines.
Historically, the start of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle has always coincided with the beginning of a decline in the stock market. I believe this time won’t be an exception — but for now, it’s too early to short.
SPX - Time for a correction? To make it very simple,
Prices have been going up very nicely those last few weeks and months.
Everyone is happy but as we know that can't last.
NASDAQ:OPEN seems to be the latest pump and dump and it's just another sign of a coming correction imho.
Most stocks I've been following have reached resistance zone, levels where profit taking is very likely.
$S&P500 seems to have made a fifth wave, RSI divergence is present and confirming that.
It's difficult to pinpoint the exact top of course so I'm giving myself some leeway and use a small 1% stop loss in this case.
US500 Swing short tradeUS500 index is on the verge of major drop. I expect the price to sink in the coming weeks, that's why this will be a swing trade. I expect to reach my main target of $6000 around mid/end of August, with a second short entry once we will start to drop and retrace till my key level.
SPX: Banks beat, stocks peakThe US equity markets remained relatively resilient this week, despite ongoing concerns about trade policy developments. After last week’s slight retreat from its all-time high, the S&P 500 resumed its upward momentum early in the week, continuing to hover near record levels. The index reached a new highest level of 6,315 on Friday before pulling back slightly, closing the week at 6.296.
Bank earrings were in focus of investors during the previous week. Overall, Q2 reports from major U.S. banks showed resilience — better-than-expected earnings, strong interest income, and robust capital actions. So far, the finance sector has seen Q2 earnings rise around 13% y/y and 3,4% revenue growth. In addition, a stress test posted by Fed underpin confidence as all major banks, including JPMorgan and Citi showing resilience also under potential stress conditions. However, both bankers and investors held a cautious tone on macro/public policy risk.
Investors' confidence was additionally boosted by better than expected US macro data posted during the previous week. The inflation rate in June was 0,3% for the month and 2,7% on a yearly basis. At the same time, retail sales beat market expectations with an increase of 0,6% in June. As per analysts reports, currently 27 stocks included in the S&P 500 are trading at the all time highest levels. The ADM company, which is well known for producing Coca Cola, had a drop in the value of shares of 2% after the US President requested from the company to use real cane sugar in their popular drink.
From July 23st a composition of companies included in the S&P 500 index will be changed. A crypto company Block will be included, while the company Hess will be excluded from the index. Shares of the Blok surged by 10% on Friday, after the release of the news.
US stocks hold near record highs on strong 2Q earnings
Despite elevated valuation pressures, US equities remain near all-time highs. While tariff concerns persist, resilient US economic data continues to support the market's upward momentum.
United Airlines reported a 1.7% YoY increase in 2Q revenue, citing easing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties and a double-digit rebound in corporate demand. Meanwhile, earnings and share performance among mega-cap stocks have also been strong.
Netflix (NFLX) beat market expectations with 2Q revenue of $11.08 billion and EPS of $7.19. At the same time, Nvidia (NVDA) reached a fresh all-time high on renewed optimism over a potential resumption of exports to China.
After testing the support at 6285, US500 rebounded and approached its previous high again. The index holds above EMA21, suggesting the continuation of bullish momentum. If US500 remains above both EMA21 and the support at 6285, the index could breach the 6320 high. Conversely, if the US500 breaks below the support at 6285, the index could retreat further toward 6200.