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SPX500USD trade ideas

A Wolfe Wave? Maybe. Another Win? Definitely. | SPX Analysis 16 What do you call it when you wake up, sip your tea, and realise the market is exactly where you thought it would be? Answer: another day following the damn plan. Yesterday’s price action? Snooze city. But tucked away inside that inside day was a lovely little income win, all thanks to those glorious GEX levels we’ve had our eyes glued to for weeks. 5400/5425 was once again the no-go zone. SPX tiptoed up, chickened out, and reversed politely on cue. While retail traders yawned or second-guessed, we quietly hit our numbers. Again. And while the surface was calm, beneath the charts... something’s stirring. --- 🎯 "Same Setup. Same Result." Some traders chase action. We wait for systematic decision-making framework. While the masses complained about a boring market day, we snagged another payday. The setup was textbook: resistance at 5400/5425, backed by GEX, ADD extremes, and the ol’ "...oh and..." wedge-in-the-making. Throw in a mechanical bear Tag 'n Turn and we were go for launch. The overnight futures have started to crack the two-day range. One of the perks of short-dated expirations? You don't need massive moves - just a push in your direction, and the premium does the work for you. And here's a wildcard for your "...oh and..." notebook: 👀 Possible Wolfe Wave forming. If valid, we could be looking at a gravity slide down to 5000. Is it the holy grail? Nah. But if it lines up with pulse bars and structure, I’ll be ready. --- GEX Analysis Update 5425 again 🎓 Expert Insight – "Pattern First, Prediction Later" Common Trading Mistake: Jumping on a trade just because the news made your pulse spike. Fix It: Let your levels do the talking. GEX, ADD, Tag 'n Turns… the market leaves breadcrumbs. Follow those, not the headlines. Don’t predict. React with structure. Trade setups, not emotions. Repeat winners are born from repeatable processes. --- 🤓 Fun Market Fact The Wolfe Wave pattern is named after Bill Wolfe and is often misunderstood as some esoteric mystery. But really? It’s just a glorified channel break with attitude. It projects a reversal target based on converging trendlines, often in five-wave structures. The magic? The final wave usually slams to a specific line, called the EPA/ETA - and can happen quickly if volatility kicks in. Most people don’t spot it until it’s too late. But if you know what to look for, it becomes a spicy tool in the AntiVestor arsenal. 🐺📉 Happy trading, Phil Less Brain, More Gain …and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
SPY/SPX500: Bearish Setup Ahead of Key Macro Events🔍 15-Min Chart Analysis – April 30, 2025 The S&P 500 (SPX500) is currently facing resistance near the 5,560.65 zone, a confluence of a key Fibonacci level (0.382 retracement) and a rising wedge upper boundary. Price has shown signs of rejection after a recovery from the ORB low of 5,505.88, and is struggling to break above 5,557–5,560, which aligns with a prior supply zone. 🔧 Technical Breakdown: Bearish Rising Wedge Formation: Price is respecting the wedge trendlines, suggesting a potential breakdown. Fibonacci Confluence Zones: Resistance: 0.382 at 5,557.18 Support: 1.382 extension aligns with 5,508.75, which is just above the ORB low and a possible target. Short Bias Trigger: A clean break below the wedge support (~5,545) could accelerate downside. Target Zones: 🎯 First target: 5,524.39 (ORB low) 🎯 Second target: 5,508–5,505 area (Fibo 1.382 + ORB range support) 🔮 Probability Outlook: Bearish bias: 65% Bullish breakout: 25% Sideways consolidation: 10% 🧠 Macro Context: With U.S. GDP and FOMC decisions imminent, volatility is expected to spike. A break below wedge support could trigger a retracement toward key support zones. Be cautious of false breakouts as macro catalysts come into play. 📌 Watch the 5,545 level closely. Rejection + volume drop = high-probability short setup.
FX:SPX500Short
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
S&P500 INTRADAY resistance at 5510A wave of earnings reports is due today, with Microsoft and Meta in focus. The tech sector remains under pressure, highlighted by a 15% drop in Super Micro Computer after disappointing results. In Europe, banks are seeing strong revenue growth, benefiting from recent market volatility linked to Trump’s trade policies. However, Mercedes and Stellantis have joined the list of companies withdrawing guidance due to uncertainty. Donald Trump has again criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell and defended his tariff strategy during an event marking his 100th day in office. Investors are now awaiting key US data, including inflation and GDP figures. Meanwhile, China’s factory activity has contracted to its lowest level since December 2023, signaling the early impact of US tariffs and increasing pressure for government stimulus. US consumer companies are also sounding cautious, pointing to a weaker economic outlook ahead. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 5670 Resistance Level 2: 5740 Resistance Level 3: 5820 Support Level 1: 5380 Support Level 2: 5310 Support Level 3: 5236 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
Will April Close with a Bang?You ever get that feeling the market’s just waiting for a reason to move? That’s where we are. It’s been a quiet start to the week – barely a pulse. And Tuesday? One signal. Just one. But it was a bullish pulse bar, and it paid. Price is still coiling, compressing tighter, and Bollinger Bands are pinching harder than a crab on Red Bull. We’re seeing the classic signs of range contraction – which usually means a range expansion is coming. So what’s the move? Stay bullish. Stay patient. And be ready to pounce the moment price breaks free. Today’s calendar gives us a few nudges – ADP, GDP, ECI, PCE – nothing major, but enough to cause a wobble or spark. The bias is bullish. The system’s ready. And if we break out of this pinch, I’m looking at 6106 on the swing. Even a dip to 5400 wouldn’t change the structure – just another spot to reload the bulls. Let’s finish April strong. Let’s grab another one by the horns. --- SPX Market View Let’s call it like it is – the market’s been locked in a deep freeze. Monday and Tuesday barely moved. Why? No real news. Month-end positioning. And a crowd of big players too busy doing their internal accounting gymnastics to push buttons. But while it looked like nothing happened, Tuesday’s single bullish pulse bar delivered the goods. One bar. One setup. One result: Profit. Now as we roll into Wednesday, things get spicy – not because the economic data is explosive… but because compression like this doesn’t last. The Bollinger Band width is pinched tighter than a tax refund cheque. And we know what that means: Tight range = pressure building. Breakout = opportunity waiting. So today’s plan? Stay bullish until proven otherwise. Use the pulse bar system to play range edges or trigger entries. Look for breakout confirmation to ride it toward 6106. Remain calm if we dip toward 5400 – structure still holds. Economic data today (ADP Jobs, GDP, Employment Costs, and Core PCE) might trigger volatility, but it’s not about reacting to the numbers… It’s about watching how price responds. We’re not forecasting. We’re not feeling. We’re waiting for the setup – then pulling the trigger. Price is whispering right now. Soon, it’ll yell. Be ready. --- Expert Insights: Mistake #1: Assuming news equals movement. Just because data drops doesn’t mean price pops. Fix: Always wait for price confirmation. Pulse bars > economic guesses. Mistake #2: Ditching the bias at the first wobble. A dip isn’t a collapse. Fix: Know your structure. Dips to 5400 are still within a bullish regime. Mistake #3: Forgetting the role of compression. Tight ranges often precede big shifts. Fix: Don’t ignore the squeeze. Bollinger Band pinch = breakout fuel. --- Rumour Has It… In a desperate bid to solve market stagnation, Wall Street has reportedly hired a motivational speaker named Terry the Turnaround Candle. His credentials? He once convinced a doji to become a dragonfly. Sources say he opens every session with, “Are you going to let that Bollinger Band define you?!” Meanwhile, the Fed is beta-testing new AI price models based on squirrel hoarding patterns in Central Park. Traders remain cautiously optimistic. Squirrels remain heavily long acorns. This section is entirely made-up satire. Probably. --- Fun Fact Did You Know? The term “month-end rebalancing” sounds official… but it’s really just fund managers shuffling things around so their spreadsheets look prettier. They often trim winners, pad laggards, and balance sector weights. But in low-volume markets like this week, even tiny shifts can cause weird little waves that trigger setups. So when price “randomly” spikes or dips late in the session on month’s end? It’s often not news – it’s bookkeeping chaos in disguise. Which is why we trust setups, not headlines.
SP:SPXLong
by MrPhilNewton
SPX500 rebound will finish in the range of 5650 to 5750.Trump’s tweet on April 9 regarding the moderation of tariff measures triggered a strong market rebound. Retail investors are buying the dip, contributing to this recovery, while institutional investors are actually net sellers. In April, capital flowed out of U.S. equities and mid- to long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. We anticipate that both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 will rebound to the Fibonacci 0.618 level or slightly above, recovering about 62% of the entire decline since December 2024. We believe this rebound will be temporary, followed by another decline. Currently, both indices are approaching the Fibonacci 0.618 level. While many people focus on tariffs and the trade war, the Trump administration is also facing an imminent national debt crisis. The total national debt stands at $36 trillion, with interest payments this year expected to be around $1 trillion—about one-fifth of the federal government's tax revenue. Additionally, $8 trillion will reach maturity this year, and $6 trillion will need to be rolled over in June. This is a significant amount, yet demand for mid- to long-term U.S. Treasury bonds remains weak. The Federal Funds Rate (short-term rate) is currently between 4.25% and 4.5%, while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is around 4.3%, both of which are high. Trump wants to see these rates much lower, but Powell must first assess the inflationary impact of the tariff measures before considering any rate cuts. If inflation resurges beyond expectations, the Fed may be reluctant to cut rates. Consequently, the U.S. stock market could experience a sharp and rapid decline amid these uncertainties. A recession is likely arriving.
FX:SPX500Short
by AlbertCheng
1
Grab Some Points To Upside In SPX/USD $$$Hey fellow traders and followers! How go's the profits so far? Market movin & groovin to the beat of the Orange drum. I'm here to help if you are having any troubles or confusion with SPX. Let's have a quick look. We have a V pattern in the 1hr chart so let's trade this baby! Breakline is 5530.3 so we wait to see a break above before getting long. Pattern support is around 5510, a break below that price area would likely cancel out the bullishness of this pattern so keep eyes on that. Daily low support sits around 5484.9. A break below that support spells a short down for 29 points. A break above the breakline is a long good for around 29 points. RSI is 55.77 (Bulla). Easy money if the V gets flyin $$$. Don't listen to any news or rumors, listen to your charts. Wait! Did you hear that? Your 1hr chart is whispering something about easy money if you pay close attention to the numbers and the rules laid out within. Hey! best of luck in all your trades people ! Wishing all of you prosperous trades. $$$
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Trade-Farmer
1
Trading the Impulse Rally Retracement — Price and Time Symmetry Fundamental — Trend is observed from an impulse run’s lowest/highest point and projected outwards in symmetrical fibonacci retracement via price/time from the first reversal candle to the end of the rally, creating crosshairs. These ‘crosshairs’ visually represent the trending ‘price distribution projection’ in price/time symmetry. Using this concept, I draw a ‘projection trend line’ from the bottom or top of the impulse run thru the projected 78.6% price/time retracement value, to identify the price distribution structure in a linear form. Now to introduce my STOP LOSS TRIANGLE. This is a concept of decaying price and time as an underlying move towards our theoretical projection, where if the underlying enters our built faded cross-section, the SL is triggered to avoid sideways consolidation and decaying contract premiums. This ‘right’ triangle that is ‘sclene’ by nature is created by taking the furthest projection in price/time symmetry (78.6%) and drawing a vertically placed straight line to the highest/lowest point in the rally previously identified. Here, I create a ‘right triangle’ by turning 90 degrees towards my final point, which is made by the nearest projection in price/time symmetry (38.2%). In its entirety, this forms the stop loss triangle
SP:SPX
by splitmyIVandmelt
1
Mongoose Desk Alert | SPX Gravity vs Macro Reality — Recession 📈 Mongoose Capital | Macro Heat Check — April 28, 2025 Chart Overview: US500 fighting gravity at 5475. Macro Score: 2/7 — only 28.57% bullish probability. Inflation is sticky, unemployment is rising — recession risk is quietly creeping higher. Credit markets are holding... for now. (KRE > 50, HYG > 78) Signal: ✅ Smart Hold signals prevented panic buying. ⚠️ Recession Score now climbing — 3/5 triggered. 🚨 Risk-Off conditions remain dominant. Desk Outlook: "Price relief is illusionary. The underlying engine is sputtering — without liquidity, rallies will fail. Patience and precision: Mongoose Style." Mongoose Capital Tactical Bias: Short bias into major resistance zones. Long volatility setups favored. Recession trades preparing for launch. #MongooseCapital #MacroTrading #SPX #US500 #RecessionWatch #TradingDesk #MarketUpdate
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TheRealMongoose
Option Insights – Trading the Greeks Part 3 of 4: Gamma ScalpingOption Insights – Trading the Greeks Part 3 of 4: Gamma Scalping Gamma Scalping is a trading strategy that combines long option positions with a hedging position in the underlying asset to isolate and profit from the convexity of options. It is essentially a non-directional swing trading strategy that aims to capture price swings—regardless of direction—by neutralizing the linear component of option value changes and focusing on the convexity gains. ________________________________________ How It Works Gamma Scalping begins by purchasing a single option or a strangle, and simultaneously entering a hedging position in the underlying to achieve Delta neutrality (the "Delta hedge"). The strategy then waits for a swing in the underlying price in either direction. Because of the long Gamma position, the position’s value is a convex function of the underlying price. This means that the position will either: • Gain more than the Delta hedge in a favorable move, or • Lose less in an adverse move. The combined position becomes profitable as the underlying moves, regardless of direction. The linear component of the option’s value change—driven by Delta—is hedged, so any residual profit comes from the convexity, i.e., the Gamma. To realize this convexity profit, the Delta hedge is re-adjusted after the swing has played out. In other words, after the market appears to have reached a turning point, the position is brought back to Delta neutral. The optimal adjustment points are at the sequential peaks and troughs of the market. Rebalancing at intermediate points captures some convexity value, but typically less than adjusting only at clear turning points. This is illustrated in the two subcharts of the introductory chart. ________________________________________ How Does Gamma Scalping Make Money? The change in the value of an option due to a change in the underlying price is approximately the sum of the Delta-weighted change in the underlying (the linear portion) plus a Gamma-weighted convexity component (convexity portion). • The linear portion is hedged by the underlying. • The convexity portion remains and represents the profit opportunity. While the convexity component is typically smaller than the potential linear gain, it is always positive—unlike the linear term, which is only profitable when the direction is predicted correctly. ________________________________________ What’s Being Traded? Gamma scalping involves adjusting the hedging position—not the options—at perceived turning points in price swings. The options position is kept intact as long as it maintains sufficient Gamma to deliver meaningful convexity. Even in volatile markets that demand frequent trading, all activity is confined to the underlying, which tends to be liquid and low-cost to trade. Once the option’s Gamma decays significantly, the entire position (options + hedge) may be reset to “refresh” the Gamma exposure. ________________________________________ What’s the Catch? The convexity value isn’t free—it comes at the cost of time value decay, as measured by Theta. If Delta neutrality isn’t re-established promptly during a swing, even a brief counter-move in the underlying can erode the accumulated convexity gains due to time decay. Gamma scalping thus becomes a race between capturing convexity and losing value to Theta. The key challenge lies in timing: • Too early: Frequent adjustments reduce overall convexity capture. • Too late: Time decay eats into the gains. • Too slow: As expiration approaches, the range in which sufficient Gamma exists narrows, shrinking the window of opportunity. Despite these challenges, Gamma scalping offers an appealing alternative to traditional directional swing trading, with a more nuanced risk profile. However, it does require experience in managing Theta—especially with short-dated options. ________________________________________ Is Gamma Scalping the Opposite of Time Value Trading? In a way, yes, but not quite. Time value trading involves selling options and Delta hedging them—such as in volatility premium strategies (e.g., selling index strangles). These traders aim to minimize realized volatility and capture the decay of implied volatility. By contrast, Gamma scalping buys options and seeks to maximize realized volatility—through the trader’s own hedging actions. The subtle differences in hedge execution distinguish these two approaches. This contrast—and what it means to minimize or maximize realized volatility in a hedging strategy as well as time value trading itself—will be explored in more depth in Part 4 of the “Options Insights – Trading the Greeks” series. ________________________________________ Coming Up Next: 📘 Part 4: Time Value Trading and Volatility Premium by parsifaltrading
TVC:SPXEducation
by parsifaltrading
The Bear Is Dead. Long Live the Bull.From Fakeout to Full Send - SPX Flips Bullish You could almost hear the financial media pop champagne today. “Markets Surge Amid Easing Trade Tensions” they yelled. “Global confidence returns!” they assured. And sure, that’s a cute story. But for us, Wednesday’s bear push now looks like a feint. A setup. A spring. By Friday, the bull had not only taken the ball - it ran with it. That V-shaped reversal pattern on the daily chart? It’s live. And it’s loud. Technically, it’s now pointing to a projected upside of 6106. That’s not just some random number. That’s the prior range high zone coming back into focus. And in case you needed a reminder… The bear is dead. Long live the bull. (until it isn't) --- SPX Market View - Bullish Flip Confirmed Wednesday gave us a classic tease. Bearish energy. A flicker of downside. But it fizzled fast. Then came Thursday - and with it, a clean sweep into Friday. The V-shaped daily reversal triggered. Price pushes off the lows Sentiment flipped And a new upside target emerged at 6106 It’s not just technical fluff. This level marks a structural return to the previous range highs - a natural magnet for bullish continuation. Meanwhile, I’ve done a bit of chart housekeeping myself. After two months of letting bias sneak in and lines and notes multiply like rabbits, I’ve hit the reset button. 🧹 Clean charts. Clean mind. Just the essentials. The direction has changed - and I’m treating it with fresh eyes. One line I am keeping? 5400. It’s been the pivot point for weeks. A battle-tested zone. It now serves as the bull’s first major checkpoint. If price respects that level on any dip, it’s game on. And if we breach it? That’s when the doubt returns. --- 💡Expert Insights: Common Trading Mistakes & How to Avoid Them MISTAKE: Letting cluttered charts and old bias cloud current decisions. FIX: Regularly clean your charts — strip them down to what matters. Use setups that speak for themselves (like the V-shape). Don’t bring yesterday’s opinion into today’s trade. A new direction demands a new perspective. And as price shifts, so must your lens. --- 🗞️Rumour Has It… BREAKING: Powell Declares Bull Market, Blames Moon Phase for Midweek Bear Tease Financial news outlets were caught scrambling when the SPX reversed higher through thursday despite Wednesday’s doom-and-gloom. “Clearly the moon was in retrograde,” Powell reportedly muttered, while clutching a Fibonacci ruler. In other news, China's trade delegation released a statement saying, “We’re not sure what’s happening either.” (This section is entirely made-up satire. Probably.) --- 🤯Fun Fact - The Original “Clean Chart” Addict Was… Jesse Livermore Before indicators, algos, and triple-screen madness, Jesse Livermore – the OG speculator – was famous for trading from price and price alone. In fact, he refused to use charts with clutter. He would manually draw his price levels, log his trades by hand, and sometimes go days without placing a trade – waiting for the market to tip its hand. His trading edge? Patience. Price action. And a clean, unobstructed read. One of his favourite tricks? He’d mentally mark key inflection levels (like your 5400) and wait until price either exploded past or rejected hard before acting. So next time you reset your chart – you’re not just decluttering… You’re channelling Livermore.
SP:SPXLong
by MrPhilNewton
SPX on threshold of bullish breakout? I am cautiously bullishNations may be lining up to kiss Trump's a??? but SPX has come to kiss a confluence of trendline resistance as well as POC Also markets we approaching month end. You only need to look at the past month ends and see what happens to the price, yes they tend to reverse very often if not always, specially if the prices are below 200 ema as it is now. I would be watching how the market behaves next week. Soft economic data are pointing to weaker economy and the underlying problem of highly leveraged Hedge Funds remain. I wonder if they begin to deleverage some more at this level. Any future decline would be a good entry point
SP:SPX
by krisoz
Option Insights – Trading the Greeks (Part 2 of 4):Gamma Effects# Option Insights – Trading the Greeks (Part 2 of 4) ## Option Convexity and Gamma Effects ### Gamma – The Convexity of Options Gamma measures how much the Delta of an option changes in response to movements in the underlying asset’s price. Mathematically, it is the second derivative of the option’s value with respect to the price of the underlying. In simpler terms, Gamma quantifies the curvature—or convexity—of the option’s price sensitivity. - Positive Gamma: Accelerating Delta as the underlying moves. - Negative Gamma: Decelerating Delta as the underlying moves. This convexity becomes especially important for traders managing exposure. A directional trader might seek: - Positive Gamma near anticipated breakouts to increase exposure during favorable moves. - Negative Gamma in areas where they want to taper exposure, such as in covered call setups (where the short call reduces gains as price rises). --- ## Gamma and Delta Hedging Traders who Delta hedge their option positions using the underlying (or a Delta-1 instrument) face the reality of nonlinearity: Delta changes as the market moves, and Gamma determines how fast. In practice, this means hedgers must adjust frequently to maintain a neutral Delta—Gamma tells them how often and how aggressively. --- ## Hedging a Position with Positive Gamma When hedging and holding positive Gamma: - If the underlying price rises → Delta increases → Sell the underlying. - If the underlying price falls → Delta decreases → Buy the underlying. This results in countercyclical trading, i.e., trading against the market trend. **Advantages:** - Potentially dampens volatility. - Allows for limit order execution (e.g., sell at offer when price rises), capturing bid-offer spreads. - Automated or semi-automated setups possible. --- ## Hedging a Position with Negative Gamma With hedging and holding negative Gamma, the adjustments are procyclical: - Price rises → Delta drops → Buy more underlying. - Price falls → Delta rises → Sell more underlying. **This means:** - You're chasing the market, increasing exposure in the direction of the move. - You likely cross the spread to ensure execution (lifting the offer or hitting the bid). - This behavior tends to amplify volatility and incurs transaction costs. --- ## Summary: Gamma's Impact on Hedging - Long Gamma → Hedge countercyclically, dampen market movements, and potentially profit from spreads. - Short Gamma → Hedge pro-cyclically, amplify market movements, and pay the spread. This distinction underscores a critical point: hedging Delta is not just about neutralizing exposure—it’s about managing how that exposure evolves, which is precisely what Gamma represents. --- ## Can You Hedge Delta Without Gamma Risk? **In theory?** Yes. **In practice?** Not really. Hedging an option (a nonlinear instrument) with the underlying (a linear one) means you’re using a linear approximation of a curved payoff structure. This hedge is only locally accurate—it must be rebalanced frequently to remain effective. While it’s theoretically possible to hedge both Delta and Gamma using other options, this introduces complexity: - Other Greeks (like Theta and Vega) enter the equation. - Option hedges are often illiquid, expensive, or difficult to scale. For most traders, hedging Delta with the underlying remains the simplest, most liquid, and most cost-effective approach—despite the need for Gamma-based adjustments. --- ## Gamma Trading & Gamma Scalping Even in non-directional strategies, Gamma has value. Gamma scalping involves actively trading the underlying around an options position to exploit short-term price swings: - You buy low and sell high as the underlying fluctuates, - Profiting from volatility, not direction. This is a powerful technique for monetizing Gamma, particularly when implied volatility is elevated relative to realized moves. --- ## Coming Up Next: 📘 Part 3: Gamma Scalping – Monetizing Convexity Through Active Hedging by parsifaltrading
TVC:SPXEducation
by parsifaltrading
Narrative Noise vs. System ClarityApparently, the market was “uncertain” today. Somewhere between Trump retracting his Powell shade, the Fed playing PR dodgeball, and tariffs being simultaneously on and off the table… headlines were doing what they do best: explaining yesterday with confidence. But the chart? The chart spoke first. We came into the session ready for bullish confirmation. Instead, we got a clean rejection of 5400, with early signs of downside pressure before lunch. This is why we follow price, not PR. Today’s action didn’t invalidate the bull bias completely, but it sure made the case that bears aren’t done just yet. Let’s unpack what we saw and where we’re headed next. --- Additional images mentioned can be seen on my main blog --- SPX Market Outlook - Structure Rejected, Futures Rolling While the headlines continue to spin post-news confusion, the price action remains our guide. Yesterday, we came into the session prepared for a bullish continuation, but 5400 acted as a firm barrier once again. The daily chart showed a clear rejection, and despite the bullish lean in the morning, the structure leaned bearish by session’s end. Now, as I write this before the cash open, overnight futures are pushing lower, indicating potential follow-through. That doesn’t confirm anything just yet - but it does tilt the bias. Here’s what I’m watching: 5400 = still key resistance 5300 = GEX flip level - will reassess bearish view if we break and hold below it 5000 remains the target for the Wolfe pattern continuation Upper Bollinger tag is in - another technical sign of short-term exhaustion No bear pulse bar yet, but a clean V-shaped reversal is visible on the chart ADD remains near bull extreme - offering more bear potential than bull in the short term Bias remains bearish below 5300, and I’ll reassess to add in below that level. --- GEX Analysis Update 5500 - 5400 - 5350 all look interesitng levels 5300 is the current flip point --- Expert Insights: React to Price, Not PR ❌ Mistaking news for a setup Narratives are seductive. They come with headlines, urgency, and lots of confident pundits. ✅ Stick to the chart Price told us today’s story long before CNBC tried to. 5400 rejection. No pulse bar. Bullish exhaustion on ADD. That's not confusion. That's confirmation — if you're paying attention. --- Rumour Has It… Trump was overheard saying, “Maybe Powell’s alright. Maybe.” Dow gained 0.3% and then shrugged. 5400 is reportedly suing for emotional damages after being rejected for the third time this month. A Wolfe Wave ghost briefly appeared on the chart, waved, and vanished near 5300. (This section is entirely made-up satire. Probably.) --- Fun Fact - News Always Arrives After Price Markets don’t wait for clarity. They move first, then the headlines scramble to explain why. The pattern is timeless: Price shifts. Smart traders react. Media catches up. Retail says, “Oh, THAT’S why.” Yesterday was no exception. So if the news says “flat and uncertain,” but the chart shows a failed breakout, don’t wait for a CNBC blessing to press the button. The system already said what it needed to say.
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
Tariff Talks Flip the Tape - 5400 Under FireWolfe Gasping, Bulls Grinning Well, this is exactly what every bear didn’t want to wake up to… Overnight, markets surged higher after Trump hinted at easing tariffs and gave Powell a thumbs-up. It’s like watching your opponent trip mid-game, then suddenly recover, score a hat trick, and throw you a smug grin. That line in the sand we’ve been talking about? 5400. It’s been the invalidation level for weeks – and now it’s being bulldozed like it never mattered. This isn’t about guessing the news. It’s about having a clear point where your bias says, “Okay, I’m out.” The Wolfe was working… until it wasn’t. And that’s okay. Because while the bear swing has been fantastic, we’re now seeing what might be the higher low reversal we flagged a few weeks ago - just without the drop to 5000 first. Frustrating? A little. Unexpected? Not really. Tradable? Absolutely. Let’s look at how this flips our setup for today. --- SPX Market View - Bull Bias Activated (Finally) Well, that escalated quickly. With the overnight futures surge and 5400 now breached, the Wolfe Wave is officially off the board. Our long-standing bear bias has been invalidated — and we flip bullish for the first time in weeks. This is the power of having a system. You don’t need to guess. You just need a line in the sand. Ours was 5400. Price crossed it. The bias flips. Here’s what I’m watching now: 5400 is now the breakout zone – if it holds at the cash open, bulls have full control Higher low structure playing out across the daily chart GEX positioning will be key — I’ll be watching for hedging demand shifts to confirm upside stability This doesn’t mean we go all-in bull mode with blind optimism. It means we assess new setups in line with the price action, and if they confirm – we act. Bull’s got the ball (for now). Let’s see if he fumbles or scores. GEX Analysis Update 5300 acting as the updated flip point overnight SPX prices potentially gaping 100+ points assuming the futures hold their gains. --- Expert Insights: Know Your Invalidation ❌ Clinging to a bias too long It’s tempting to hold on to the story. “Wolfe’s still in play,” you tell yourself… even after price says otherwise. ✅ Know your invalidation level 5400 was the line. It’s been clear for weeks. Once price punched through it — the plan said, “That’s it. Game over for the bear.” No ego. No hoping. No rewriting the script mid-trade. Your system needs boundaries. Otherwise, it’s not a system — it’s a story. --- Rumour Has It… Trump’s tweet this morning: “Tariffs are dumb. Powell’s alright. Markets UP!” Dow gained 200 in 10 seconds. CNBC now referring to 5400 as “The Enlightenment Zone.” The Wolfe Wave was last seen howling into the wind and fading into the distance. (This section is entirely made-up satire. Probably.) --- Fun Fact - The 5400 Flip Here’s a kicker for you… 5400 has flipped bias more times than any other round number level in the SPX this year. It's the psychological equivalent of a market mood swing. And every time price hits it, traders start reaching for different narratives: “It’s resistance.” “Now it’s support.” “No wait, it’s just a number.” “Actually, it’s Fibonacci-magnet-retrograde!” Sometimes it’s just this: 5400 = The Line Where We Flip. Meme of the Day - “Wolfe’s Out. Bull’s In.” IMAGES ON MAIN BLOG Happy trading, Phil Less Brain, More Gain …and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton