"Tariffs are like whiskey, a little whiskey under the right circumstances can be refreshing. Too much whiskey under the wrong circumstances and you end up drunk as a goat." - Sen. John Kennedy
BTCUSDT Puts are trading at a premium to calls, signaling a spike in demand for downside protection. This skew is most pronounced in short-term maturities - a level of fear not seen since BTC was in the $20Ks in mid-’23.
Despite this, BTC hasn't broken down like equities did on recent tariff headlines. That disconnect - rising panic without a price collapse - makes the current options market setup especially notable.
Skew like this usually appears when positioning is one-sided and fear runs high. TLDR: panic is elevated, but price is holding. That’s often what a bottom looks like
SPX500 Honestly, valuations are still pretty high considering the economy is moving from growth worries to a full-blown recession.
Over the past five years, we’ve seen the market consistently price in the worst-case scenario before things start to turn around, even when the data suggests a recession is underway.
If this trend continues, I’m thinking we might see the market hit rock bottom somewhere between 4100 and 4600. A lot will depend on what the banks say about their earnings. If they start cutting back on hiring, buying back, and paying dividends, it could trigger a wave of selling that might push us toward the lower end of that range by May or June.
NDQ how are you guys trading options rn? I want to peel my face off. This trump market makes charts useless. I’m going to the casino instead, goodnight🫡 Or maybe I’ll put my child’s education fund on puts…
SPX Currently still under a 13% correction. The 2022 mid term correction was 25% (4800 down to 3600). It also happened after a year of pump from previous daily swing high.... just like now.