S&P 500 Short: Break of trendline for wave 3 of C downAs explained in the video, we are in wave 3 of C down and I expect that we will make a new low. Good luck!
SPXM trade ideas
SPX500 on the Brink: Unveiling the Critical 4800 Gann Pivot ThatThe chart is drawn inside a Gann Square from the 2020 low (March COVID bottom) to a projected 2030 high, mapping both time (X-axis) and price (Y-axis) in 1:1 ratio (Square of Time & Price).
The blue ascending diagonal (45° line) represents the ideal balance of time and price (1 point per unit of time). A break of this line is often seen as a major trend reversal signal.
Colored zones:
Green zone (top-right triangle): bullish expansion territory.
Yellow zone (center): consolidation/transition.
Red zone (bottom-right): bearish decline/major correction zone.
🟢 Bullish Continuation - Bounce from current level or 4800 support - Next Target 5,800–6,200 - maximum by 4 2025–Q2 2026. (Bounce from 0.5 level means trend is intact and accelerating into green zone)
🟡 Sideways/Neutral - Holds between 4800–5400 - TP could be 6,400 ±200 pts range Until ~March 2026 (0.618 time). This Indicates market is digesting gains; triangle pattern may form!!
🔴 Bearish Breakdown - Break and close below 4,800 - TP could be 4,100 (Fib 0.382) then 3,200 (Gann 0.25) Through 2026.Fall into red zone begins if 0.5 support fails — major cyclical top in place
The Yield Curve is NOT InvertedLately I've been seeing a lot of people incorrectly state that the Yield Curve is currently inverted.
IT IS NOT.
Easily measurable 10Y - 2Y.
Google the definition if you need to.
I laid out the impact of the yield curve inverting against the S&P 500.
In most cases, you can see SP:SPX sells off slightly after inverting.
The higher the spread, the healthier the market is.
You want funds buying longer dated securities for market stability and confidence.
Don't Panic. Global Financial Crisis Relief RalliesThis is your daily reminder not to panic. No fear mongering here, friends. Take advantage of the relief rallies (aka "Bear Market Rallies").
What you see here is a chart of the Global Financial Crisis ('GFC'). I wanted to show that even in the GFC we had frequent relief rallies. I've highlighted a number of them in this chart.
Relief rallies are the times when you can unload garbage positions, take profits on swing trades during the descent, or just free up cash (to collect interest in money market while you wait the crisis out).
Also note that some of the relief rallies last multiple weeks. These are where "they" (yes, THE "THEY") try to draw you fully back in.
Relief rallies are frequent, and, unless society as we know it completely collapses, there will be a bottom.
Stick to your strategy! No panicking here.
The moment of truth for ETH has comeThe moment of truth for ETH has come, either Ethereum is going to be a worthless asset or it will retest the December highs, 2025 is only at the beginning...
Pectra 07 may bullish for eth!? doesn't it?
ETH at 1500 is a buying opportunity... tariffs are distractions
SPX500 Long - Bounce of 5200 key psychological level
Tariffs are paused. CPI data was good, coming in at 2.4 instead of 2.5, indicating room for Fed to lower interest rates if economy gets worse. I expect prices to climb back up instead of getting pulled down by just China trade war.
Entry: 5200
SL: 5160
TP: 5500
Results of ideas thus far:
Number of trades: 4
WR: 25%
Profit: 0.9R
Notes: This is currently for personal practice to write out trade ideas. Feedback is welcome, and please don't mind if none of this makes sense.
The next shoe to dropIn my mind the rally was a C wave and likely ended yesterday. I would expect bigger players to get out while prices are still high. Target 4600 - lower Monthly Bollinger Band area. If they get over 5400 something else is happening and I will update.
Trump Tariff Bloodbath!SPX Trump Tarrif Bloodbath…
The SPX just experienced a brutal 21% drop from its previous all-time highs, wiping out an entire year’s worth of gains in just a few short weeks.
However, the market has found support at a critical level — the golden pocket between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. This area also aligns with the Anchored VWAP, offering solid support around the 4900 level. Despite the recent turbulence, we’re still holding within the rising parallel channel that’s been supporting the broader bullish trend.
Holding this confluence zone (Fib + AVWAP) would be a strong signal for a potential continuation higher.
That said, I’ve highlighted a potential capitulation zone between 4450 and 4070. While reaching that level would require a powerful impulsive correction from here, it’s wise to be aware of what’s still on the table.
We’ve also formed a bullish shark fin, and the RSI briefly dipped below the oversold 20 level. Historically, when the weekly RSI hits that extreme, it’s often marked excellent entry points.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves — we also need to consider the pattern seen in the last major correction: a bounce to the 30 RSI level, followed by a lower low that formed bullish divergence. I’m watching closely for a similar setup, which would suggest another leg down after this interim rally.
Key resistance now sits near the 50-week SMA, currently between 5480 and 5680. Both the 21 and 50 SMAs are starting to curl down — something to watch, as they could act as headwinds going forward.
One last thing: the last time we lost the 50 SMA on the weekly, it took nearly 260 days of correction before we finally reclaimed it (that’s the green line on the chart).
Bottom line — buckle up. If we lose the lower bound of the rising channel (around 4900 on a weekly close), I’m expecting more downside ahead.
S&P 500 ( INTRADAY ANALYSIS ) - Thursday 10th AprilS&P 500 can remain volatile on Thursday's trading session. Even then, I'm expecting a positive closing . Support on the downside would be 5396, and if it slips below 5396, then it can fall upto 5351-5294. On the upside, upon crossing 5498, we can expect good upside upto 5607-5636.
SPX resistance is clear for the dayIntraday Update: The SPX stalled at previous (flag) support at the 5500 level as noted in the end of day analysis. The "line in the sand" has been drawn intraday for the session now.
A break above this level would continue yesterday's epic squeeze
Trump Pump Just Broke the Charts12% Up in a Day. Now What?
What a difference a headline makes.
Monday:
Markets dump. Panic. Retail sells the low.
We hit our bearish targets like clockwork.
Wednesday:
Markets explode like they found a cheat code.
SPX rallies 9.5% in a day.
Nasdaq? A completely unhinged 12% up.
All because… tariffs might be paused again.
You can’t make this stuff up.
But you can trade it.
When Euphoria and Edge Collide
The Trump Pump Parade
After last week’s fake-news-induced dump, we now have headline euphoria.
No earnings beat. No rate cut. No macro shift.
Just one rumour:
“Trump might pause tariffs.”
Cue the biggest one-day rally since 1933.
Nasdaq: +12%
SPX: +9.5%
SPX now kissing the 5400 bull trigger level
Financial media?
Throwing a rave.
Retail?
FOMOing back into the top.
It’s madness.
But it’s not structure.
The System Trader’s Reality
Meanwhile, in the AntiVestor camp…
The bear swing is still on but under review.
Why? Because we trade levels, not vibes.
And 5400 has always been our pivot.
We’re now sitting right on it, with overnight futures starting to drift lower – like the market just realised it left the oven on.
The decision zone is here.
Hold 5400?
It’s time to shift gears.
Bull thesis activates. Tag ‘n Turn setups. Bull Pulse Bars. GEX Bulls Eye trades.
Lose 5400?
We go right back to feeding the bears.
It’s not emotional. It’s mechanical.
This is what system trading looks like.
---
Expert Insights: The Market Owes You Nothing
Mistake:
Getting emotional after missing a rally or overstaying a short.
Fix:
Use a system with defined levels.
5400 was always the line.
You don’t need to guess the pivot. You just need to trade it when it confirms.
This rally may be overblown.
But until the market proves otherwise, you don’t fight the tape – you ride it with structure.
---
Fun Fact
The last time the Nasdaq moved more than 10% in a day?
March 13th, 2020 – the height of COVID panic buying.
That rally was followed by… a further drop.
Then a V-bottom.
Then a massive bull market.
So… is this the start of something new?
Or just another overcaffeinated bounce?
History says: Don’t decide early. Let price confirm.
Trump Delays Tariffs for 90 Days. The S&P 500 Rebounds SharplyTrump Delays Tariffs for 90 Days. The S&P 500 Rebounds Sharply
As shown in the chart of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the index is currently trading near the 5,500 level.
This result is highly encouraging, considering that as recently as yesterday morning, the index was hovering around 4,900.
Why Have Stocks Risen?
The strong rebound seen yesterday evening was triggered by a statement from the US President — he announced a 90-day delay in the implementation of wide-ranging global trade tariffs, which had originally been unveiled on 2 April and led to a sharp drop in the index (as indicated by the arrow).
However, this does not apply to China, for which tariffs were not delayed but increased. "Due to the lack of respect China has shown towards global markets, I am raising the tariff imposed on China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately," said Donald Trump, according to media reports.
Overall, US stock markets responded positively to the news, and Goldman Sachs economists have withdrawn their US recession forecasts.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)
Despite yesterday’s sharp rebound, the stock market remains in a downtrend (as indicated by the red channel).
From a bullish perspective:
→ A Double Bottom pattern (A–B) has formed around the 4,900 level;
→ Price has moved into the upper half of the channel.
From a bearish perspective:
→ Bulls must overcome key resistance near the psychological 5,000 level;
→ While tariffs have been delayed, they have not been cancelled. As such, the risk of an escalating trade war is likely to continue putting pressure on the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) in the coming months.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Potential Short Move to 5000This idea is in accordance with the Price slipping out of the cloud but closes below it and with strong downwards trends over a few months, price has retraced to the golden ratio zone so it may be a good opportunity to sell right now after confirmation of a downwards trend due to this price being a key level. Hence it could be a potential short position, I'm not in the trade but this is a likely outcome from the technicals and fundamentals
It’s Buy Time, Buddy!👉 The market has just handed us a limited-time discount on high-quality stocks.
🎯 With the 90-day window in play, this is your opportunity to collect strong businesses at cheap valuations before sentiment flips and prices catch up.
SPXA few days early but not wrong.
SPX looking good having bounced from confluent support at 2008 to present channel mid AND 2021 highs...
Yesterday's "largest intraday reversal ever" filled gap at Monday's close; better to have filled that instead of leaving it unfilled -- now all relevant gaps below filled.
And today is largest SPX daily gain ever.
I believe you would agree, bottom is in. New highs by DJT's birthday. Never fade a time traveler.
The Bearish Cycle of SPX has begun.TL Overshort, rejected, recent price action(PA) has been bearish, the market seems to be overvalued.
The AI rush will subside due to the lack of data storage, and questions about how to sustain energy consumption, among other concerns about the sustainability of the tech rush, remain.
I think the tech industry will be the leading factor in the bearish cycle as the market continues finding lower levels from higher highs (HH). The forecast predicts a movement towards 4,400 points on the S&P 500 (SPX).
S&P 500 April 2nd week Analysis Looks like US markets have substantially digested the Trump tariffs. From now on, I don't see further big downside without any fresh bad news .Levels to watch S&P 500 for downside would be 5022 and 4934, and only after breaking 4934 decisively can we expect sharp downside movement towards 4757. On the upside, upon crossing 5138, we can expect strong short cover upto levels of 5363-5403.
ALL LEVELS ARE MARKED IN THE CHART POSTED!!!
Update on Gold and SPX - 12pmGold looks like an objective short trade again, although testing 3100 first is expected. SPX looks like it's consolidating before the move down I still expect.
S&P500: Rebound or Correction before another fallFRED:SP500 moving below 200 Days EMA on Daily Chart and taking a support on same EMA on Weekly Chart. Due to current situation in the market, high volatility due to Tariffs and announcements, Traders should be cautious as current rebound might be a correction before another fall with support at 4587
S&P 500 still testing 5,000Some participants in stock markets had hoped for negotiations to make some progress in the first week of April and at least some countries to be exempted quickly from the latest round of tariffs. However, now it’s a full-scale trade war: China in particular, under 104% tariffs, is very unlikely to back down. The main uncertainty for markets now is less how major countries such as China will continue to react and more whether the American government has discipline of policy to stick to what was announced.
So far there hasn’t been a full-day close below 5,000, which suggests that this area is still a support and it’d be possible to see another attempt at a bounce soon. However, it’s important to consider the bigger picture: the current retracement has barely touched the highs from late 2021 and early 2022 plus the losses in the last two months haven’t so far been bigger than in early 2022, just faster.
A very obvious bullish interpretation of the chart would be inverted head and shoulders, suggesting a return to 6,000 around this time next month. Perhaps obviously, that’s very questionable given how quickly the trade situation can change. Traders also need to monitor the upcoming earnings season in the USA, particularly banks’ reports on Friday 11 April, and sentiment on the Fed’s upcoming meetings.
This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
