SPX 30 min Lets see how this will play out. Not Financial Advice just a thought, the upward movement in open was aggressive enough. Have a stop loss and correct risk to reward.
SPXM trade ideas
Still Vulnerable Here...I'd be cautious in calling a bottom. The major indices all show potential bear flags in the daily chart.
Update on the market 1230 pmStill no change in the idea although they pushed it higher than I expected. I will be out for the rest of today.
S&P500 INTRADAY awaits Fed’s decision and press conferenceThe US Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and release the monetary policy statement on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT, followed by a press conference from Chairman Jerome Powell at 18:30 GMT.
Recent weak economic data from the US, along with new tariffs announced by President Donald Trump, have raised concerns about a possible recession. Despite this, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for the second meeting in a row.
The updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) could provide important insights into the Fed’s future plans. However, the stock market remains wary that the Fed might not take a dovish enough stance. Inflation remains high, and tariffs could push prices even higher, making the central bank cautious about easing policy.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5714
Resistance Level 2: 5770
Resistance Level 3: 5872-5920
Support Level 1: 5500
Support Level 2: 5387
Support Level 3: 5254
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$SPX - Trading Levels for March 19 2025
Today’s Trading Range
The Down-gap from yesterday is near the top of the implied move and the down gap from last week is at the top of the trading range with the big moving averages. With the 30min 200 coming down.
The 200DMA still has a little big of momentum in.
At the bottom to the implied move for the next two days there’s an up gap from last Friday.
The Blue Dashed line is a trendline -you can see it on the 1D timeframe - underneath.
I’m excited. Let’s go.
S&P500/Macro end of Cycle: 2027This chart shows the cyclical nature of the global economy, S&P500.
There is a clear correlation between a Bull supercycle and a 50% correction afterwards, which lasts for half the period of the supercycle.
First SuperCycle had a 27 years long growth, then 13.5 years correction.
Second SuperCycle had 18 years long growth and 9 years long correction.
Current SuperCycle ends in 2027 technically.
It is reasonable to sell your assets in 2026, at least 50% of all your portfolio.
5650 is key todayThey are having problems holding 5650 and so unless they can get over that level, the bias is down and the chances of going further down is likely. I thought we would triangle overnight, but right now this looks like a compressed bear pennant.
We always & forever aim to the Moon
A prevailing theory suggests that adjustments in the channel trend lines within stock markets signal the advent of a digital currency era—a shift towards monetary systems that no longer rely on benchmarking against the U.S. dollar. From a technical analysis perspective, this evolution is interpreted as a natural progression toward a more digitized financial landscape.
Looking back over the 40-year history of stock markets, one might question the overall state of Western economies. Despite intermittent, minor declines that are often sensationalized by the media, major indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have quietly continued to reach all-time highs. This persistent upward trend supports economic theories that highlight market resilience and self-correcting mechanisms, even in the face of periodic volatility.
Moreover, there is substantial evidence that the United States has consistently injected liquidity into its financial system to stabilize and sustain growth. This strategy, while potentially masking underlying vulnerabilities, appears to have worked effectively over the past half-century. The practice can be seen as a self-reinforcing mechanism—one that maintains market momentum and may delay or even avert any catastrophic "Great Reset" or systemic collapse.
In contrast, emerging markets like Thailand have experienced prolonged periods of stagnation, with stock prices moving sideways for approximately 15 years. This divergence raises a critical question: why do developed markets benefit from these self-sustaining policies while some emerging markets do not?
Ultimately, if the mechanisms that have driven developed markets continue to function as they historically have, the anticipated dramatic resets or collapses may never materialize. Instead, the upward trajectory—often colloquially described as heading “to the moon”—is likely to persist in markets where these policies are in place.
Tight Coil, Big Move Coming - FOMC Could Be the TriggerTight Coil, Big Move Coming - FOMC Could Be the Trigger | SPX Analysis 19 Mar 2025
Sometimes, doing nothing is the best trade you’ll ever make.
While I was off enjoying my long weekend, SPX’s bullish move got slapped back into the range. Had I jumped in long, I’d probably be hedging or cursing my screen right now.
Now, price is coiling into a bear flag, and with the FOMC circus rolling into town at 2PM, I’m expecting things to stay tight until the fireworks start.
📌 Bullish above 5705.
📌 Bearish below 5605.
📌 Until then, I sit back and let the market make the first move.
Because in this game, you don’t force trades—you wait for the perfect shot.
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Deeper Dive Analysis:
Some days, doing nothing is the right trade.
That’s exactly what I did over my long weekend, and it ended up saving me from stepping into a bullish trap. SPX’s move up was short-lived, and now we’re right back in the range—but this time, it’s setting up in an interesting way.
📌 The Setup – Bear Flag + FOMC = Volatility Incoming
SPX has:
Fallen back into the previous range—bulls are losing control.
Coiled into a tight bear flag formation—hinting at a breakdown.
FOMC later today, which could be the match that lights the next move.
📌 The Trade Plan – Let the Market Show Its Hand
Right now, I have no interest in guessing. Instead, I’m letting the market come to me.
Bullish above 5705? I’ll consider a long setup.
Bearish below 5605? I’ll ride the downside momentum.
Until then, I sit tight.
📌 Bigger Picture – The Waiting Game
FOMC is always a game of patience. Traders try to guess what’s coming, but most end up whipsawed to oblivion.
I won’t be one of them.
If the market confirms my bias, I strike.
If it fakes out, I wait for a better setup.
No stress, no panic—just disciplined execution.
📌 Bottom Line – The Best Trade Is Sometimes No Trade
For now, I’m watching, waiting, and keeping my capital intact.
Because when the market finally makes its real move, I’ll be there, ready to take full advantage.
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Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? The longest FOMC meeting in history lasted five days—in 1932, during the Great Depression. Traders were left in limbo, staring at their tickers, waiting for an answer that took 120 hours to arrive.
💡 The Lesson? Waiting for clarity isn’t new—it’s just that today, we get our pain in hours, not days.
US500 StanceThe equal lows from the 4H price action had me thinking. If we look at it from a range perspective, there is still a wide gap left from the 4H change of character, ever since it took the last low of the lower lows, it never gave a single percent to the area's retracement. This might be a daily timeframe FOMO trap. whereby recovery of the market from sells to buys will be pumped to only drop again. In terms of entry. There is a zone with mind for us to consider seeing if it holds. because right now there is some dying triangle pattern towards it. should it delay, but keep showing some sell intent. we will wait for the session to sweep its high and sell it. should it fail, a further analysis will take through
the market is in chop modeToday's price action wasn't as bearish as it should have been if we were to keep moving down. 5600 held, and that is significant. Chances are, we will triangle into Powell and then rally briefly to 5750 area to fill the futures gap and test the 200 and 18ma area. if that's the case, we may be in a larger correction period (ABC)
spx500 bearish movewith the push to the upside in the 1hr crossing a previous resistance. using fib retracement getting in on this analysis
SPX - Potential Inverse Head & Shoulders / H&S BottomValid inverse H&S currently forming on SPX. Need to watch for volume expansion at break of neckline to confirm.
Bearish 1 DTE Call Spread SPX-5740 +5745
12.72% gain in premium on cap invested, expecting a bearish week, also first 1 DTE of 2025.
Bear to Bullish to Bear long termAs we go through this short term bear market, early this year, very shiny bright upside is waiting .
EWTSU SP500 H4 minuette (iv) ended
Elliott wave trade setup SP500 H4
minuette (iv) ended
minuette (v) running in 5 waves to minute ((C)) minor X
invalidation: break up 5690 area
US500(UPDATE)Hello friends
Given the downward trend we had, the price has reached a good support area and if the area is maintained, you can enter a buy trade and move to the specified targets with it.
*Trade safely with us*
SPX50 18 March 2025 Market Analysis
Yesterday closed as a bull bar in its upper half with a long tail above.
We said that the parabolic wedge (3 pushes - 28 Feb, 7 Mar, and 13 Mar). That increases the odds of a minor pullback. The pullback is currently underway.
The bulls want the market to form a 2 legged sideways to up pullback.
They need to create credible buying pressure - consecutive bull bars closing near their highs.
Traders will see if they can continue to create follow-through buying.
The next target for the bulls are the 20-day EMA or the January 13 low.
For today, the bulls want a retest of yesterday's (Mar 17) high followed by another leg up.
The bears see any pullback as minor. They expect at least a small second leg sideways to down to retest the Mar 13 low after the pullback phase.
The 9-bar bear microchannel on the daily chart and the 4-bar bear microchannel on the weekly chart increases the odds of sellers above the first pullback. This remains true.
That means the first pullback would likely only be minor.
Because of the climactic selloff and parabolic wedge, the market may try to form a minor pullback which is currently underway.
Traders will see the strength of the pullback. If it is strong (consecutive bull bars closing near their highs), they may look for a retest of the breakout point - Jan 13 low.
If the pullback lacks follow-through buying (overlapping candlesticks, doji bars, bear bars, long tails above bars), the odds of another leg down increases and traders will sell the pullback.
For now, traders will see if the bulls can create a strong retest of yesterday's (Mar 17) high followed by a breakout above.
Or will the retest lacks follow-through buying, stalling around or below yesterday's high area? If this is the case, the market may selloff in the second half of the day.
$SPX - Trading Levels for March 18 2025
Not too much to write today because I’m on Spring Break and even though I am trading I’m not at my computer as much.
You can see the levels running through the chart. They are all labelled the bear gap is there holding the 35EMA and the 200DMA - that is big.
We are Neutral bearish here being above the 30min 25EMA but under the 30min 200MA
Grab this chart and let's GO!!!
Trump Tariffs: Strategic Impact and Investment ImplicationsIn the short to medium term, equity markets will experience significant volatility due to new tariff implementations. However, in the long term, these tariffs could lead to a stronger domestic economy, benefiting the working class and middle class while revitalizing industrial production in the U.S.
Macroeconomic Impact
Depreciation of the U.S. Dollar
A depreciating USD acts as a natural tariff, making imports more expensive while simultaneously boosting U.S. exports. Countries with weaker currencies relative to the dollar, such as Mauritius (where our currency has depreciated by nearly 40% against the USD), already experience higher costs when purchasing from U.S. retailers like Amazon.
Inflation Trends and Precious Metals
Despite widespread fears of inflation—reflected in gold prices reaching all-time highs—actual inflation remains relatively stable (~2%). Factors such as import/export balances, currency devaluation, and consumer demand will likely offset inflationary pressures. Once investors recognize this, precious metals may undergo a correction.
Federal Reserve Policy and Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve's traditional mechanism of recession control—interest rate adjustments—is currently ineffective. With reports of declining payroll numbers, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates to prevent a mass exodus of aging investors (boomers) from the stock market. However, this time, rate cuts may not drive asset inflation as they did during COVID-19.
Investment Strategy: Navigating Market Changes
Short-Term: Uncertainty leading to stability
Bear Market Risks: Until tariff negotiations stabilize and currency depreciation takes effect, expect equity market volatility.
Investment Approach:
Buy high-quality corporate bonds in consumer staples with exposure to multiple currencies.
Hold cash reserves across multiple currencies to mitigate risk.
Prioritizing fixed-income securities (bonds, term deposits).
Consider real estate in stable emerging markets, where high-net-worth investors may shift investment focus.
Mid-Term: Seeds start to reap
Sector Focus: multinational companies benefiting from U.S. exports, particularly in non-tariff-heavy industries.
Stock Selection: Identify firms that continued capital investment during the downturn and are now positioned for growth.
Long-Term (2028+)
Monitoring Indicators:
Track interest rate trends and their impact on asset accumulation by wealthy investors.
Observe precious metal prices as an indicator of capital reallocation to assets.
Investment Approach:
Consider REITs and undervalued real estate investments.
Double down on assets if economic policies shift under a Democratic administration.
SPX500 Move Up Expected!
HI,Traders !
SPX500 made a bullish
Breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 5640.66 and the
Breakout is confirmed
Because the daily candle
Closed above the key level
So on the market open
We will be expecting a
Local pullback and then
A strong move up !
Comment and subscribe to help us grow !
Short S&P - Flat Structure I have a zigzag confirmed ( 5-3-5), this means we could be in larger degree 3-3-5, flat structure.
S&P 500 Reaches Major Support – Will Buyers Take Control?SP:SPX is experiencing a corrective move after rejecting from the upper boundary of the ascending channel. The price has now reached the lower boundary of the channel, aligning with a key demand zone. This confluence of trendline support and horizontal demand increases the probability of a bullish reaction from this level.
If buyers maintain control at this level, we could see a rebound toward the 5,936 level, which aligns with the midline of the ascending channel. This level could serve as a short-term target within the current bullish market structure.
However, failure to hold above this support zone could invalidate the bullish outlook, and signal further downside. Traders should monitor bullish confirmation signals, such as rejection wicks, rising volume, or bullish engulfing patterns, before entering long positions.
If you agree with this analysis or have additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts here!
