shot down in flamesone more wave down is likely to 4600 area. SPX should not get back to 5200 if this is correct.
SPXM trade ideas
SPX500 Short at M5 supply zone due to tariffs uncertainty
Market overview and macro outlook
Rise in the equities market mainly due to the possibility of a 90 days postponement of the tariffs
1. What can kill this optimism: A single Trump administration comment otherwise.
2. We've risen by close to 8% from the lows.
3. Until the postponement is confirmed, i don't think there's much upside, thus, the risk is to the upside, and we should be looking for downside trades now
Upcoming news
1. FOMC meeting on Wed - probably to the downside as it should be comments on keeping rates high to combat the tariffs uncertainty
2. US CPI/Unemployment on Thu - TBD
- If high CPI - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut
- If high unemployment - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut
3. US Core PPI on Fri - TBD
- If high PPI - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut
Thus, I have a bearish view of the market and look to take Short positions here.
Technical View
At a higher time frame, I want to see price hit 5500 for a short position then.
In the short term of today and tomorrow, I want to see prices hit 5267 for me to take a Short position - there's a Supply zone there from the M5 TF.
SL: 5300 (Above supply zone and a major psychological point)
TP: 5130 (Slightly above the lows of the previous trading zone before the breakout)
Execution
1. Limit order
- SL: 5300 (Above supply zone and a major psychological point)
- TP: 5130 (Slightly above the lows of the previous trading zone before the breakout)
- TF: Close limit order before CPI or PPI reports. If no entry by then
Results of ideas thus far:
Number of trades: 2
WR: 0%
Profit: -1.1R
Notes: This is currently for personal practice to write out trade ideas. Feedback is welcome, and please don't mind if none of this makes sense.
S&PThe SPX touched a long-standing overhead, and came down ever-so-slightly to retrace the most recent peak. This is all totally normal. There is nothing here to worry about. In fact, the more touches of this overhead, the more likely it is that we break above it. You can see this has happened many times before in the S&P, where it breaks above an overhead, only to land on top of it, and then launch for a new even steeper part of the curve. The macro parabola that the markets are in.
Is Trump Intentionally Crashing the Econ?I want to preface this by saying I'm a TA and this is just dinner table chat as far as I am concerned.
I've no interest what-so-ever in why a market moves. All the money is made based on how it moves- and the TA is working great for that.
Just sharing a theory that is floating about (It's not mine).
The idea is Trump is intentionally crashing the markets in an attempt to reduce the debt burden on the US.
This would work by this sequence of events;
1 - Markets crash. Making people who care about their money anxious and less eager to take risk in the stocks (etc) markets.
2 - This money moves to bonds. Pushing bond prices up. Rising bond prices push interest rates down. So crashing the econ can lead to lower interest rates.
3 - At a lower interest rate (say 2%) the US can refi its debt.
Inside of this theory, everything we're seeing is part of a calculated plan to, literally, force stocks lower.
S&P 500: Bottoming Out or Just a Bounce?Has the market bottomed?
The S&P 500 has bounced 10% from the critical 4800 level, signaling strong buyer interest and disrupting the bearish trend that’s been in place since February 2025. Selling pressure appears to have exhausted as the bearish pattern reached its target near 5000.
This bounce is a positive sign, suggesting downward momentum may be fading. However, for a stronger confirmation, we need to see the index hold above the 4800–5000 zone. If it fails to stabilize here, the 4500 level could act as the next buffer.
S&P Weekly chart @ 4650 holds huge Price-Demand for a Bounce!1). The S&P 500 could bounce back soon, especially if Tariffs prove to be overwhelming! A). Price is on a wave 5 South towards 4650. 2). 4650 is at the 27% retracement, and typically a reversal level.
SPX - Melt up & Crash series [4]Just sticking to SPX this time due to the constant f'ery of the markets
Not financial advice
SP500: Is This the 2025 Correction? Or Just Another Bounce?Looking at the weekly chart of the S&P 500 with RSI and key support trendlines, it’s clear we’ve entered a historically important level.
🔍 Context:
2020 → COVID Crash, RSI bottomed 💥
2022 → Bear Market, RSI again flagged a major drop 📉
2023 → Healthy correction, price respected trendline support
2025? → RSI flashing oversold, price testing the long-term trendline again.
📊 RSI is approaching the same low levels as the previous two macro shocks — is this a signal of another reversal opportunity? Or could this time be different?
🚨 If we break below this trendline convincingly, it could open the door for a deeper bear leg. But if we hold, we might just see another bounce-back rally like in 2020 and 2022.
📈 Watch for confirmation:
A strong bounce with bullish RSI divergence = potential long
Breakdown + volume spike = more downside ahead
Let’s see if the trendline holds up — it has for 5 years… 👀
#SP500 #Correction #BearMarket #RSI #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketUpdate #2025Outlook #StockMarketIdeas
Watch for a Bull trapWith the market up at open you would expect buyers to come in. It could very well be a trap. Both Vix and SPX rsi is telling me a test of the low - or lower is possible in the next few days.
$SPX Trading Range for April 8 2025SP:SPX Trading Range for April 8 2025
So the arrows are pointing right to the spread I am taking today!! Credit spreads are wide here, y'all!!
Buy Low Sell High (Buy The Fine Dip)
When the market becomes "Cheap" it's time to buy. And when the market is in decline "Sell High, Buy Low". At this time we saw a lot of Institutional activity, they were positioning at the top, when the index was struggling to make new All Time Highs, which according to the Wyckoff theory, it signals a reversal. It happened way harder than anticipated. There was a tiny Dead Cat Bounce not long ago, followed by a flush in the market.
We reached the main trend line that was supported during the "COVID19 recession", the "FED's Soft Landing" and now the moment of truth, the "Tariffs & DOGE" period. If we compare the three critical moments in the market, we realize they all are the same size, 1,200 points. Let's go from there and assume the flush was the same and the support line holds. We have the ingredients for a dead cat bounce, taking the index back to 5,500, which will be another moment of truth. Will the short covering and the "buy the dip" mentality will be able to hold the levels and at least make the market pause the decline and best case scenario, consolidate? This will be answered if the index keeps above the 4,900 - 5,000-ish levels.
I don't see a change in the economic policies of this administration, which makes me think a decline will happen after this Dead Cat Bounce. In which case the markets may fall back to the 3,600 levels, which will be signaled if the main support line doesn't hold, then brace for impact. The interest rates are relatively high, the inflation is ticking up and the unemployment, after the layoffs and the DOGE purge is ticking up as well. I don't see a forced slow down in the interest rates since this would take us to a scenario of high inflation and low rates, similar to what happened during the late 70's during the "Stagflation" period where after the initial high inflation peak, lowering the interest rates only exacerbated the economy.
In the Weeks ahead we'll see the "Back to Normal" and the fanfares of a "quick recovery" in the markets, so I go long in the short term and wait for direction in the range.
Has SPX formed a bottom?SPX500USD - 24h expiry
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
A Doji style candle has been posted from the base.
Setbacks should be limited to yesterday's low.
We look to buy dips.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
We look to Buy at 4900.5 (stop at 4767.5)
Our profit targets will be 5295.5 and 5365.5
Resistance: 5219.6 / 5350.0 / 5500.0
Support: 5100.0 / 5000.0 / 4812.2
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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$SPX Review of Black Monday
Alright - Yesterday - We stayed completely with in the implied move - you can see that both sides got tested which gave us some wild swings. Spreads on both ends paid. 10% intraday moves
We hit the bottom of the implied move, the top of the implied move and we saw resistance at the 35EMA.
S&P INTRADAY oversold bounce backTrump threatened a 50% import tax on China, adding confusion over his global tariffs. China promised to hit back and moved to support its markets.
Stocks bounced slightly as investors looked for bargains, but uncertainty around U.S. trade policy remains. U.S. Treasuries rose after falling on Monday.
Wall Street is getting more cautious. BlackRock downgraded U.S. stocks, and Goldman Sachs warned the selloff could turn into a longer bear market.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5273
Resistance Level 2: 5379
Resistance Level 3: 5510
Support Level 1: 4815
Support Level 2: 4700
Support Level 3: 4585
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPX bounce is dueSPX RSI hasn't been so oversold since the Corona crash, plus bouncing from the 2022 ATH
Relief is due
S&P500 Dead Cat Bounce or V-shaped Recovery?The S&P500 index (SPX) saw a remarkable turnaround yesterday after the Wall Street opening. The early futures sell-off came very close to the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the ultimate Support level since the March 2009 Housing Crisis bottom (the last major Bear Cycle).
It supported the 2022 Inflation Crisis, the 2018 U.S. - China Trade War, the 2015 E.U./ Oil Crisis and 2011 correction. It only broke during the irregularity of the March 2020 COVID flash crash.
Note that the 1W RSI hitting 27.30 has only happened during the COVID crash and the actual March 2009 Housing Crisis Bottom. At the same time, the index reached the All Time High (ATH) trend-line (dashed0 of the High before the 2022 Inflation Crisis (previous correction phase). As this chart shows, previous ATH trend-lines have never been broken during the correction phases that followed them.
In any case, the million dollar question is of course this: Was yesterday a Dead Cat Bounce inside the new Bear Cycle or we are ahead of a V-shaped recovery? Well technically it depends on the 1W MA200 (the market needs 1W candles to close above it) while fundamentally if depends on potential trade deals and of course the Fed (the market needs rate cut assurances).
If this is a V-shaped Recovery indeed, there is no reason not to expect the market to follow all previous rebounds of 1W MA200 corrections that weren't Bear Cycles (Bear Cycles on this chart are 2008 and 2022).
As you can see, all rebounds have been sharp, indeed V-shaped recoveries, ranging from 20 to 27 weeks (140 - 189 days) until they broke their previous High. So this indicates that technically, SPX should make new ATH by October 13 2025 the latest (and September 02 earliest). Of course this is just a projection, this time we have no COVID shutdowns, no Grexits or Brexits, no Oil crises, it is all due to one fact, the tariffs and if deals are reached and the Fed delivers the much needed rat cuts, the recovery may be even faster, as sharp as the correction has been.
The facts are on the historic data on the chart. The conclusions are yours.
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SPX 500 Technical Analysis This is not financial advice and I never recommend trying to pick bottoms and tops of markets. Trade safely and always wait for confirmation, with sound risk management.
US500 - Long-Term Long!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈US500 has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in blue.
Moreover, it is retesting its previous all-time high at $4,800 and round number $5,000.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of previous ATH and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #US500 approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
[H] SPX 4.8.2025This deserves a closer look.... The orange thug is going to destroy the biggest economy inevitably. Sadly, stock charts are just the beginning, and things will escalate fast. Brace for a world order change.
Are we done with the slide, or not? US indices are suffering right now, but is there light at the end of the tunnel?
Let's dig in!
MARKETSCOM:US500
MARKETSCOM:US100
MARKETSCOM:US30
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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Bulls are not of the woods, not by far1. What happened yesterday?
In my weekend analysis covering US indices , I mentioned that US500 (SP500) could drop and test the ascending trend line starting back at the pandemic low. This line is confluent with the horizontal support level given by January 2022 ATH, offering a good opportunity for traders to open long positions.
Indeed, at least on CFDs and futures, this trend line was touched, and the price rebounded strongly from there.
2. Key Question:
Will we have a full V-shape recovery, or will the price drop back below 5k in the coming sessions?
3. Why I expect a continuation of the correction:
🔸 Strong Resistance: The US500 has established a robust ceiling around the 5350-5400 zone(also a gap there)
🔸 Lack of Building Momentum on Support: There's no clear indication that this resistance will be broken anytime soon with the lack of accumulation under 5k
🔸 Potential for Further Decline: Given the current market structure, a drop below 5k remains a realistic possibility in the upcoming sessions.
4. Trading Plan:
🎯 My Strategy: Playing the range.
✅ Buy near the 4800 support.
✅ Sell into the resistance zone between 5350 and 5400.
5. Conclusion:
I’m watching for market confirmations and will continue applying this range strategy until there’s a clear directional change. 🚀
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Could the US500 be setting up for a bounce?Hello,
The US500 is trading near the trend line, a key area where technical investors will be looking for a bounce back. While the current market remains choppy due to tariffs from the US president, technical analysis does offer us key areas where we can look for entries going forward.
What is certain is that this is not the time to panic and sell all your held positions. As always, during moments like these composure + a clear plan are your best line of defence. Probabilistic thinking as well can go a long way in identifying great opportunities. We’re all dealing with known and unknown variables now, and there’s no shame in saying, "I don’t know."
For me I see opportunities in the S&P especially because the news is already out. Additionally, we are coming into earnings season when the market is at the bottom. Companies that show resilience will attract early investors and the index will bounce back. So please keep your long-term view.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
