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S&P 500 Index - Standard & Poors 500 (SPX)S&P 500 Index - Standard & Poors 500 (SPX)S&P 500 Index - Standard & Poors 500 (SPX)

S&P 500 Index - Standard & Poors 500 (SPX)

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S&P500: Identical so far with 2018/20. October rally possible.S&P500 just turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 57.810, MACD = 53.820, ADX = 46.107) and that should give a new boost to the already bullish 1W timeframe (RSI = 63.805, MACD = 167.870, ADX = 40.687), which showcases the long term trend. And that long term price action can't be shown more effectively than on the 1W timeframe. We have spotted that the index is repeating the 2018-2020 trend. Starting with a Channel Down under the 1D MA50, the index recovered massively and when it slowed down on a Channel Up, the 1W RSI turned ranged. We are now where the past fractal started rising aggressively again on the October 21st 2019 1W MACD Bullish Cross, as last week it completed a new such Cross. With the support of the 1W MA50, it is more likely now to see a strong rally to the 2.5 Fibonacci extension, where the 2020 fractal abruptly stopped with the COVID market meltdown, which is an event that can't be put into chart analysis. This pattern shows that we have a clear target for early 2025 on the 2.5 Fib (TP = 6,500). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:SPXLong
by InvestingScope
SPX: pricing the soft landingThe US equity markets were traded in a mixed manner during the previous week. On one side there should be considered funds outflows to China's stocks, after the announcement of significant stimulus measures by their Government. In anticipation of non-farm payrolls data, the S&P 500 was traded with a negative sentiment, moving from the level of 5.760 down to 5.680. Still after a release of 254K of new jobs in the US economy in September, which was far above the market expectation, the optimism was back on the market. The Index ended the week at the level from the beginning of the week, 5.751. Majority of analysts are now in agreement that a soft landing for the US economy is the most likely scenario, and that the US economy is more resilient from their initial expectations. Tech mega-cap companies were the ones that led the market to the upside on Friday's trading session, followed by companies from the financial sector. As per analysts, the financial sector is expected to gain during the following period, as an environment of decreased interest rates would support the credit activity. In this sense, JPMorgan and WellsFargo gained more than 3% for the week. Additional support for the index rally on Friday came from oil companies included in the S&P 500. Namely, as tensions in the Middle East continue, the price of oil has increased bringing companies within this sector higher by 7%.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
SPX500 H4 | Falling to overlap supportSPX500 is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 5,693.65 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 5,595.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 5,826.06 which is a level that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Long
by FXCM
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Oct 6th—> Oct 11th)Looking Ahead: Next week will bring several key events: Monday: Fed Speak; Nvidia AI Summit ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) Tuesday: PepsiCo Earnings ( NASDAQ:PEP ) Wednesday: Fed FOMC Minutes; 10-Year Bond Auction Thursday: CPI Inflation, Jobless Claims; Tesla Robotaxi Event ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) Friday: PPI Inflation, Consumer Sentiment; Bank Earnings ( NYSE:JPM , NYSE:WFC , NYSE:BLK ) As we move forward, these developments will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and guiding investment decisions. If you have any questions or need further insights, feel free to reach out. Here’s to another week of informed investing and strategic decision-making! 🌟
SP:SPXLong
by WallSt007
S&P 500 – Wyckoff Distribution: Potential UTAD Bull Trap The S&P 500 is shaping up into a clear Wyckoff Distribution pattern. Based on price action, volume analysis, and the current market structure, a possible Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) could be forming, setting up a classic bull trap. Let’s dive into the key phases of this distribution cycle. Wyckoff Distribution Phases with Volume Analysis: Preliminary Supply (PS) Early signs of distribution begin as smart money starts selling into the uptrend. This phase sees an uptick in volume, with price still moving higher. Larger players are offloading positions while retail traders continue to buy, unaware of the distribution at play. Buying Climax (BCLMX) Price reaches a peak, marked by a significant volume spike. Retail traders are buying heavily here, but smart money is quietly selling into this rally. Despite increasing volume, price struggles to make meaningful gains beyond the climax, indicating that supply is starting to dominate. Automatic Reaction (AR) Following the Buying Climax, the market enters an Automatic Reaction, where price pulls back sharply. This phase is characterized by large candles, showing strong selling pressure. Volume remains elevated, as the sharp decline reflects the market’s initial response to the excess supply that was introduced during the Buying Climax. Tests After the AR, the market attempts to retest previous highs, but volume decreases during these upward moves. Each test of the highs shows a lack of buying strength, with price struggling to regain momentum. The weakening demand during these tests confirms that the distribution is still in play and buyers are losing control. Upthrust (UT) The Upthrust is a false breakout above resistance, where volume spikes again. However, the price fails to sustain the breakout, signaling that market makers are absorbing buy orders. The combination of higher volume with limited price follow-through is a clear sign that the larger participants are offloading positions while retail traders are still buying into the move. Sign of Weakness (SOW) In this instance, the SOW didn’t fall as far as expected, suggesting that much of the supply was absorbed earlier. Volume increases, but the shallow price drop indicates that the market is preparing for a potential UTAD. A shallow SOW often precedes a more powerful Upthrust After Distribution, where price rises to trap buyers before the final markdown. Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) The UTAD represents a final false breakout above the previous highs (BCLMX and UT), with high volume as breakout traders jump in, thinking the market is turning bullish again. Once these buy orders are absorbed, expect a sharp reversal. The UTAD serves as the final trap, marking the completion of the distribution phase and leading to the markdown. Absorption, Bull Trap, and Market Psychology: In this distribution, market makers have been absorbing buy orders throughout the phases, especially during the Tests, and should see the same during the upthrust. The shallow SOW gave retail traders the false impression that the market found support, leading them to buy dips with confidence. A powerful UTAD would act as the perfect bull trap, drawing in breakout buyers and triggering stop-losses for short sellers. This false breakout would generate liquidity for smart money to sell into before the markdown phase. The psychology behind this setup is simple: retail traders are lured into thinking the price is breaking out, only to be caught off-guard by a sharp reversal. If we do see a breakout and a relatively quick return back into the range, we should see continued absorption at remaining levels, then the markdown begins.
U
by OnlyProfits888
Down for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD started a correction down (wave 2). I think we could see a continuation of the downmove next week to finish the correction. Trade idea: Wait for a change in orderflow to bearish and a correction up on a lower timeframe to trade shorts. If you want to learn more about wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by EduwaveTrading
2
SPX500 Trade Idea: Bearish Reversal SetupI am currently watching SPX500 for a potential bearish reversal to the downside. The price action is indicating a weakening uptrend as we approach key support at 5666.40. Key Support Level: 5666.40 Trigger: A daily close below this level will confirm the breakout, flipping the previous support into resistance. In turn, that will be a fakeout in the market If the price closes below 5666.40, I will be looking for a retest of this level. Once confirmed as resistance, it would signal a continuation of the downward move. Trade Plan: Entry: Upon a successful retest of 5666.40 (now acting as resistance). Stop-Loss: Above the previous high formed during the retest. Target: I am aiming for the next support area near 4790.95, which aligns with a key historical level of demand. This setup provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio if the bearish reversal plays out as expected. I will be closely monitoring for confirmation before entering the trade. Eddy C | Swing Trader
FX:SPX500Short
by eddychuksuniversity
2
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 4, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the preceding week's Daily Chart Analysis for the Week of Sep 27, the index adhered to the anticipated behavior by attaining the robust support level at Mean Sup 5700. This notable resurgence in the primary trend will likely prompt a robust bull movement toward the completed Inner Index Rally at 5763, with a high probability of surpassing it and progressing towards the awaited Outer Index Rally at 5840 within the upcoming trading session. It is imperative to acknowledge that reaching these objectives will trigger a volatile downward sentiment price action.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Invite Only to Followers (Seasonal Investing with Dynamic Kelly)The indicator builds on top of the existing seasonality indicator in some simple, but powerful ways. It's invite only and only to followers. I don't ever charge for scripts but I want to grow my followers so I'm setting this to invite only to try and break 1000 followers. Believe it or not, this can be used as a drop in replacement for DCA, or used for options trading. The goal here get people away from the emotions involved in price based indicators and instead focus their attention on long term, risk adverse % returns... In other words, buy below the average % return or sell when its above the average return, in combination with technical indicators. Risk Management: Behind the hood, I use a modified Kelly Criterion that provides a mathematical approach to optimizing position sizes, but it requires careful consideration of probabilities and user risk tolerance. Misestimation of these factors can lead to increased risk. Users are encouraged to combine this tool with other risk management techniques to protect their capital. Seasonality Limitations: Past performance does not guarantee future results. The seasonal trends presented by this indicator are based on historical data and may not be predictive of future outcomes, especially in a highly volatile or unpredictable market environment. Tool Limitations: The Seasonal Investing indicator is best used as a supplementary analysis tool rather than as the sole basis for trading decisions. It is recommended to use it alongside other forms of technical and fundamental analysis. Position Sizing with Dynamic Kelly Criterion: This indicator calculates position sizes dynamically using the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Ratio is used to determine the optimal position size that aims to maximize returns while managing risk. The position size is then adjusted using the Adjusted Kelly Fraction, which takes into account user-defined risk preferences and broader economic conditions (e.g., a dovish or hawkish Fed stance). Users can input values for their capital available, risk tolerance, margin rate, and other parameters to tailor position sizes to their own requirements. Visual Representation Using Boxes: The indicator draws projection boxes on the chart to visually represent each month's expected performance. These boxes are color-coded to reflect the calculated average return and extend from the beginning to the end of the month. This visual feature allows users to easily spot seasonal patterns and assess the expected price movement for the current month. User Interface Settings: The indicator provides a variety of customizable settings: Table Position: Users can choose the position of the heatmap table (left, center, or right) to best fit their trading interface. Table Dimensions: Users can adjust the width and height of the table to control its appearance on the chart. Skipping Specific Months: Users can input specific months (e.g., YYYY-MM) to exclude from the analysis, allowing for greater flexibility if some months are deemed to have unreliable or anomalous data. Heatmap Metrics Toggle: Users can choose which metrics (average return, standard deviation, positive percentage, and position size) are displayed in the table. Dynamic Data Updates: The indicator's data updates dynamically as new data becomes available. This means traders are always working with the latest analysis, which is crucial for making informed decisions in a fast-paced trading environment. How to Use the Indicator Customize Inputs and Settings: Start by entering the starting year for analysis to define the historical range for evaluating seasonality. Set the available capital, risk tolerance, margin rate, and maintenance rate to tailor the position size calculation to your financial situation and risk appetite. Customize color settings for both positive and negative values to better visualize monthly trends. Review Seasonal Patterns: The heatmap and summary table will help you assess how different months have performed historically. Use the projection boxes on the chart to visualize the expected monthly price movement based on historical averages. Analyze Risk and Position Size: - Review the Position Size metric for each month to determine the appropriate amount of capital to allocate. The Adjusted Kelly Fraction helps to account for different market conditions (e.g., Fed stance) to ensure that position sizing is optimized in response to external factors. Ignore Specific Months if Necessary: If there are specific months that should not be included in the analysis, use the Ignored Months input to exclude them from the calculations. Make Data-Driven Decisions: By leveraging the average return, volatility (StDev), and positive return percentage, traders can identify which months are more likely to be favorable and adjust their trading strategy accordingly. The heatmap makes it easy to visualize trends, identify patterns, and determine which months are more reliable for trading. Important Notes Conclusion The Seasonal Investing Indicator offers a powerful combination of seasonality analysis and risk-based position sizing, making it a valuable addition to any trader's toolkit. By presenting information through an intuitive heatmap, detailed metrics, and dynamic position sizing, this indicator helps traders make data-driven decisions while managing risk in a disciplined manner. It provides a flexible, interactive interface that can be customized to fit individual needs, making it suitable for both novice and experienced traders.
SP:SPX
by livingdracula
S&P 500 Index Market Exposure and Sector Insights The S&P 500 Index is currently in a confirmed uptrend as of October 4th, maintaining support above its 21-Day Moving Average (DMA) . With 4 distribution days , market conditions suggest some caution, but the overall uptrend remains intact. Our current market exposure is recommended at 100% , reflecting confidence in the strength of the broader market. Key Points: Market Condition: The S&P 500 remains above the critical 21-DMA level, indicating continued positive momentum. This key support should be monitored in the coming sessions for signs of potential changes in market direction. Industry Strength: Strong sectors include Technology and Communication Services , with leading stocks showing resilience. Weaker sectors such as Utilities and Consumer Staples are underperforming, with multiple stocks trading below their 50-DMA and 200-DMA . Opportunities: Leading stocks continue to demonstrate setups for potential gains, with key players in the Tech sector showing strong bases or breakout potential. We advise focusing on high-quality setups in stronger sectors while avoiding underperforming segments trading below critical moving averages. The key takeaway here is to remain invested in leading areas while keeping an eye on market exposure and distribution day count for any shifts in sentiment. Let us know—are you focusing on defensive sectors, or do you see opportunities in growth industries? Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you could lose some or all of your investment. Always do your own research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
SP:SPXLong
by TradeVizion
Market might push higher in the short term, but....Market has refused to fall in the past few weeks. Whatever Fed is doing is working in the short term. With US election around the corner, it is highly unlikely the market will make any drastic moves until the end of this year. Seasonality is also on the side of the bulls. Geopolitical headwinds have stalled the progress but couldn't turn the tide; for now. The path of least resistance is up, and we will most likely see the run up to fib level resistance at 6300 before the end of year. Market maybe also foreseeing turmoil right after US election. No matter who wins, the opposing party will most definitely fight the results; specially if it is close. There might be civil unrest and riots and markets do not like that. This could be the backdrop for the primary wave 4 drop which could last 6 to 8 months until the situation calms down and regular life ensues. even in ending diagonal situation, wave 4 might not come all the way down to wave 1 territory. And bearish sentiment will most definitely will be the prevalent one. Market might do what no one expects and put in another high by end of 2026 and make everyone bullish again only to start the super cycle correction. I have no idea how bad the super cycle correction will be and how we will survive it. But one thing for sure, it is coming!
SP:SPXLong
by mukit1
7 Ways to Optimize Your Trading Strategy Like a ProYou’ve got a trading strategy—great. But if you think that’s where the work ends, think again. A good strategy is like a sports car: It’s fast, fun, and dangerous… unless you keep it tuned and under control. And given how volatile modern trading is, yesterday’s strategy can quickly become tomorrow’s account-drainer. So, how do you keep your trading strategy sharp and in profit mode? Let’s dive into seven ways to fine-tune your setup like a pro. 1️⃣ Backtest Like Your Profits Depend on It (Spoiler: They Do) Before you let your strategy loose in the wild, backtest it against historical data. It’s not enough to say, “This looks good.” Run the numbers. Find out how it performs over different time frames, market conditions, and asset classes — stocks , crypto , forex , and more. If you’re not backtesting, you run the risk of trading blind — use the sea of charting tools and instruments around here, slap them on previous price action and see how they do. 💡 Pro Tip : Make sure to backtest with realistic conditions. Don’t cheat with perfect hindsight—markets aren’t that kind. 2️⃣ Optimize for Risk, Not Just Reward Everyone gets starry-eyed over profits, but the best traders obsess over risk management. Adjust your strategy to keep risk in check. Ask yourself: How much are you willing to lose per trade? What’s your win-loss ratio? A strategy that promises massive returns but ignores risk is more like a ticking time bomb than a way to pull in long-term profits. 💡 Pro Tip : Use a risk-reward ratio of at least 2:1. It’s simple: risk $1 to make $2, and you’ve got a buffer against losses. Want to go big? Use 5:1 or why not even 15:1? Learn all about it in our Asymmetric Risk Reward Idea. 3️⃣ Diversify Your Strategy Across Markets If you’re only trading one asset or market, you’re asking for trouble (sooner or later). Markets move in cycles, and your strategy might crush it in one but flop in another. Spread your strategy across different markets to smooth out the rough patches. 💡 Pro Tip : Don’t confuse this with over-trading. You’re diversifying, not chasing every pop. 4️⃣ Fine-Tune Your Time Frames Your strategy might be solid on the 1-hour chart but struggle on the 5-minute or daily. Different time frames bring different opportunities and risks. Test your strategy across multiple time frames to see where it shines and where it stumbles. 💡 Pro Tip : Day traders? Shorten those time frames. Swing traders? Stretch ’em out. Find the sweet spot that aligns with your trading style. 5️⃣ Stay Agile with Market Conditions No strategy is perfect for every market condition. What works in a trending market could blow up in a range-bound one. Optimize your strategy to adapt to volatility, volume, and trend shifts. Pay attention to news events , central bank meetings, and earnings reports — they can flip the script fast. 💡 Pro Tip : Learn to identify when your strategy isn’t working and take a step back. Not every day is a trading day. 6️⃣ Incorporate Multiple Indicators (But Don’t Go Overboard) More indicators = more profits, right? Wrong. It’s easy to fall into the trap of loading up your charts with a dozen indicators until you’re drowning in lines and signals. Keep it simple — combine 3 to 5 complementary indicators that confirm your strategy’s signals, and ditch the rest. 💡 Pro Tip : Use one indicator for trend confirmation and another for entry/exit timing. 7️⃣ Keep Tweaking, But Don’t Blow Out of Proportion Here’s the rub: There’s a fine line between optimization and over-optimization. Adjusting your strategy too much based on past data can lead to overfitting — your strategy works perfectly on historical data but crashes in live markets. Keep tweaking, but always test those tweaks in live conditions to make sure they hold up. 💡 Pro Tip : Keep a trading journal to track your tweaks. If you don’t track it, you won’t know what’s working and what’s not. Get familiar with the attributes of a successful trading plan with one of our top-performing Ideas: What’s in a Trading Plan? 💎 Bonus: Never Stop Learning The market’s constantly changing and your strategy needs to change with it. Keep studying, keep testing, and keep learning. The moment you think you’ve mastered the market is the moment it humbles you. Optimizing a trading strategy isn’t a one-and-done deal—it’s an ongoing process. By fine-tuning, testing, and staying flexible, you can keep your strategy sharp, profitable, and ahead of the curve. Optimize smart, trade smart!
Editors' picks
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
7
Bearish Pressure Builds Amid Middle East Tensions, Targets 5675Middle East uncertainty after Iran attack makes for tricky trading Beyond tensions in the Middle East, there are several potential catalysts that could keep investors on edge, including the upcoming U.S. election in November and a key jobs report this week that will help shape the Fed's policy direction. Technically: The price has reached our target and continues to decline towards 5675 and 5643 while remaining below 5713 and 5732. To shift to a bullish trend, the price must break above 5732. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5715 Resistance Levels: 5732, 5784, 5820 Support Levels: 5675, 5643, 5584 Trend Outlook: Bearish while under 5732 previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Don’t be misled by the initial NFP reactionAll the attention is on the upcoming release of US jobs report, which is critical for the Fed’s outlook on interest rate rates. But with so much going on with regards to the Middle East and oil prices, and given the weekend risk, the initial NFP-related market reaction may not hold into the close, especially if the data turns out to a bit weaker than expected. NFP expectations: What to look out for As we look towards the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report, expectations are that the US economy has added around 147,000 jobs in September, a slight improvement from the 142,000 we saw in the previous month. Nothing earth-shattering here but do watch out for revisions for the prior months. The unemployment rate is projected to stay steady at 4.2%, while Average Hourly Earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% y/y for the second month in a row with a projected month-over-month reading of +0.3%. If these numbers hold, it’s a sign that the labour market remains surprisingly resilient, and that might just embolden the Fed to keep its foot on the brake when it comes to deciding the size of their interest rate cuts. After all, the Fed has made it clear: if the economy stays strong and inflation doesn’t cool down, they’re going to ease off on loosening monetary policy slowly. How will the US dollar, gold and indices react? A solid jobs report could trigger a bullish reaction for the US dollar, especially if it takes some of the wind out of the sails for those hoping for another 50-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting. The logic is simple: a healthy labour market reduces the need for aggressive rate cuts, making the dollar more attractive to traders. On the other hand, if the NFP report disappoints, then this could trigger a potential recovery in pairs such as EUR/USD, and give gold another boost. Once the NFP dust settles, the focus will return to geopolitics and the situation in the Middle East. With the markets obviously closed during the weekend, oil, index futures and the dollar pairs could all create a gap at the Asian open Monday should something big happen between Israel and Iran on Saturday or Sunday. Given this risk, we could see the dollar finding renewed support later, even if NFP misses slightly. By the same token, indices may be unable to hold onto much of their potential NFP-related gains. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
S&P MACRO BULLISH 2025Hello RSI 50 macro analysis show a break in the trendline, and a short period for retest before making continuation like in 2017, the patterns are identical. We are in the begging of a new increase of M2 Money Supply, big stimulus around the world, so be bullish and optimistic. The vertical yellow line are the Halving Bitcoin Cycles, the election years. Like always, in the second part of October things come to uptrend right away. The chart is having the Gaussin Channel and Pi Cycle for bitcoin. Bullish forward to 2025, toward the red trenline on the chart, making new highs until reach it and then...taking all out of the markets.
SP:SPXLong
by cipriancodau
Spreads never lieThe 2-year sell and 10-year buy spread has returned to levels above 0, stabilizing around the 0.15 range. Historically, since 1966, a return of this spread from the zone below 0 has inevitably led to either long-term or short-term crises. In this case as well, we have all the necessary preconditions for at least short-term shocks in the securities market, despite the fact that the labor market remains at an acceptable 4.2%, inflation continues to stay above the Fed's target level, and both the manufacturing and services sectors are in a growth cycle. As the U.S. presidential elections approach, particularly following the success of the Democrats, the SP500 could lose 15-20% in just a few months. The forecasts from global banks are interesting, with JP Morgan's prediction standing out significantly. It is the only global bank expecting a roughly 20% drop in the benchmark index.
SP:SPXShort
by gorgevorgian
2
Is cheap valuation a reason to buy ?Valuation can remain cheap for months and years without any decent increase in share price. So on its own , it is not a good barometer to purchase it. However, given the QE stimulus/rescue package that the Chinese Government has rolled out a week ago and creating more chaos and euphoria amongst the institution and retail investors worldwide, I would say this combo is definitely giving the stock market (HSI, CSI300) like morphine to a cancer patient. Over 8% rally in a single day ! We are not referring to the individual stock but the index as a whole and this is BIG news, never happen since 2008. Now we compare the two index against the others , we can clearly see how high India, Taiwan and US have gone up thus far. At 30x earnings, US is definitely overvalued. But, just because it is overvalued, it does mean the share price will keep tumbling down immediately. Not to forget, this is the election year and October is a boring/down month but towards Nov/Dec, whoever wins, we can expect another surge in the stock market in US. Next year, what is going to happen , your guess is as good as mine. Returning to HK and China market, we can see they are cheap in terms of valuation , 4.5 years bear market and the consumer confidence is at all time low. Socially, this is not good for the government and the risk of a liquidity trap can be high. That is, government continue to pump money into the economy but consumers refuse to spend , taking only the vouchers to spend and that's it, causing no real growth to the market. The fear is employment market is bad, wages are not increasing, AI are replacing jobs (and creating ), only and main asset for wealth accumulation - property is at all time low. So, form your own decision and allocate your capital to China .
SP:SPXLong
by dchua1969