Recovery or Pain?Will this be the infliction point or breaking point? Here we have multiple points of importance. Will this be a bounce or a crash?
SPXM trade ideas
This might be wave 5 of the drop complete The action today I feel is a bit suspicious. Doesn't feel like what I'd expect in a usual legit breakout at this level.
This could be a butterfly low, which could setup a rally to over 6000.
Bears should be careful now if we rally.
RSI Divergence : S&P 500 and NASDAQ Giants Due for CorrectionOn monthly timeframe, a RSI divergence has formed on the S&P 500, currently trading at 6044, signaling a potential reversal.
Similarly, to name only a few, NASDAQ, Tesla, Bitcoin, NVIDIA, and Apple are exhibiting the same bearish divergence. Is a healing correction imminent?
Will it happen this year or will the market delay the inevitable until next year ?
Will you be able to avoid these 7 bear traps?Will you be able to avoid these 7 bear traps?
What if the next rally in stocks is simply one of these?
Failed cycle after failed cycle.
Don't be a hero, don't try to catch these.
SPX500 at Key Support Level: Rebound Towards 5,860?FOREXCOM:SPX500 has reached a significant support zone, highlighted by previous price reactions and strong buying interest. This area has acted as a key demand zone, increasing the likelihood of a bullish bounce if buyers step in.
The current market structure suggests that if the price confirms support within this zone, we could see a bullish reversal. A successful rebound could push the price toward 5,860. However, if the price breaks below this zone, the bullish outlook may be invalidated, opening the possibility for further downside.
Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management.
Best of luck!
SPX edges towards the final buy zoneSPX has an anticipated market top of 6650 (view our long term analysis below)
We can see that the ascending channel which the SPX is trading in has been respected since October 2022 (below idea)
Now that the equilibrium level has been broken, we would expect to see a test of the lower channel support trend line, which lines up nicely with previous structure, as well as a 38 Fib retracement on the most recent move. Multiple confluences strengthen the validity of a particular level and add weight to our decision.
Therefore, we will wait for the SPX to come down and test this level at around 5756 which could take another month. Sitting on our hands, being patient, waiting only for the most likely trades is the logical way to play.
Long term SPX:
Tariff Wars, NFP & Range-Bound Markets – What’s Next? Tariff Wars, NFP & Range-Bound Markets – What’s Next? | SPX Market Analysis 07 Mar 2025
The market is acting like a drunk sailor, stumbling between a sideways range and a downsloping channel, leaving traders scratching their heads and redrawing trendlines daily.
If this feels frustrating, welcome to the real evolution of price action—the part nobody talks about.
Traders love to show off the perfect trade after it happens, but the real challenge is navigating price movement as it unfolds. One day, it’s a range, the next, it’s a channel, and by the time you’ve figured it out, the market’s already moved on.
For now, I remain hedged and in a no-lose position, watching how this range resolves.With Trump pulling a 2018-style tariff play, and NFP looming, we could be in for a big move soon—or just more of the same slow churn.
Either way, I’ll be ready when the market finally decides to commit.
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Price action is in full “make up its mind later” mode, bouncing between a short-term range and what could evolve into a downsloping channel.
The only certainty? Traders who force trades in this mess will get chewed up.
The problem with trendlines and pattern analysis is that they’re constantly evolving. One day, it looks like a clean range, the next, it’s a slanted consolidation, and suddenly, what looked like a breakout yesterday is just noise today.
This is why I never rely on one rigid framework—instead, I follow my six money-making patterns that adapt as price action develops.
At the moment, I see three scenarios playing out.
If price respects the range, we get a bounce toward the highs.
If it breaks the range, we could see a sharp downside continuation.
And if we keep drifting in no-man’s land, then it’s just more of the same.
Forcing trades when the market hasn’t committed is a recipe for frustration.
Thankfully, I don’t need to guess.
My hedge is holding firm, keeping me in a no-lose position while the market sorts itself out. I’m not eagerly adding trades or picking a direction yet—I’m waiting for the market to show its hand first.
Meanwhile, in tariff news, Trump just announced a temporary removal of tariffs under the USMCA agreement until April 2nd.
If this feels like déjà vu, that’s because it is.
The market is mirroring the 2018-19 trade war, where even in a declining market, we saw strong rallies. No two market cycles are ever exactly the same, but they do tend to rhyme.
So, will NFP be the trigger that finally kicks this market into gear?
Or will we be stuck with another day of watching paint dry on the charts?
Either way, I’ll stay patient, stay hedged, and be ready for when the next real move arrives.
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📢Did you know? In 1987, a trader at Salomon Brothers coined the phrase “Dead Cat Bounce” to describe a brief market rally during a larger downturn. The idea? Even a dead cat will bounce if dropped from high enough.
💡The Lesson? Short-term rallies don’t always mean the trend has changed—a bounce isn’t the same as a recovery.
S&P 500 Index (#US500): Bearish Breakout and Continuation📉 The US500 is showing a bearish trend after breaking below a key support level within a tight consolidation range on the 4-hour chart.
The price is likely to continue its decline, with the next potential support level at 5,710.
Trendline broken - Bounce at 50 EMA or Weekly Trendline Been looking at spx and things are looking interesting on the weekly, we could bounce on the weekly 50EMA but if that is broken the next strong support is the 200 with a broader trend on the weekly.
Retest of the rising wedgeHuge buyings took place today, but on bigger timeframes it looks like just a retest of the rising wedge. There are also hidden bear divergences on 1-4 tf on US500, US100 and US30. I guess we will see continuation of the correction to 5730-5650 area next week. The idea will be invalidated if the price returns into the rising wedge (crosses the purple trendline).
S&P500 INDEX (#US500): Breakout & Bearish ContinuationThe 📉US500 appears to be in a bearish trend after breaking below a support line within a tight consolidation range on a 4-hour chart.
It is likely that the price will continue to decline, with the next potential support level at 5,710.
SPX Daily Analysis - 7 Mar 2025 Pullback or Breakout?
• The daily candlestick was a bear bar with a prominent tail below, closing above the March 4 low.
• The market gap lower at the open and formed a pullback (bounce) in the first two hours. The market then reversed lower to retest the March 4 low and broke below it. The breakout lacked follow-through selling and stalled around the March 4 low area.
• The bulls see the market trading in a broad bull channel and want the move to continue for months. They want an endless pullback bull trend.
• They want a retest of the all-time high (Dec 6) followed by a breakout and trend resumption. They see the current move (Mar 6) as a bear leg within the trading range.
• They want a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (Jan 13 and Mar 6), a wedge bull flag (Nov 9, Jan 13, and Mar 6) and a wedge (Feb 25, Feb 28, and Mar 6).
• They hope the bottom of the 22-week trading range will act as support. They want a failed breakout below the January 13 low.
• At the least, they want a retest of the middle of the trading range (around the 20-day EMA).
• They must create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to show they are back in control.
• If the market trades lower, they want the November 4 or October 3 low to act as support.
• The bears got a reversal from a higher high major trend reversal, a wedge top (Dec 6, Jan 24, and Feb 19), and a smaller double top (Jan 24 and Feb 19).
• They see the market as being in a 22-week trading range.
• They got a bear leg to retest the January 13 low and hope to get a breakout followed by a measured move based on the height of the 22-week trading range.
• So far, the breakout below the January 13 low is not yet strong.
• The move down is in a tight bear channel which increases the odds of at least a small second leg sideways to down after a pullback.
• The move down has a lot of overlapping candlesticks which also indicates that the bears are not yet as strong as they hoped to be.
• If the market trades higher, they want the bear trend line or the 20-day EMA to act as resistance followed by a retest of the recent leg extreme low (now Mar 6).
• So far, the market is trading in a 22-week trading range.
• The SPX broke below the January 13 low (Mar 6) but the follow-through selling is still somewhat limited.
• The selling pressure in the move down is stronger (consecutive bear bars, bigger bear bars) than the weaker buying pressure (bull bars with no follow-through buying).
• The move down is strong enough for traders to expect at least a small second leg sideways to down after a pullback (bounce).
• For now, traders will see if the bears can continue to create follow-through selling below the January 13 low.
• Or will the market stall around the current levels and form a minor pullback (bounce) instead?
• The bulls need to create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to show that they are back in control.
• The bears must create a strong breakout below the January 13 low with follow-through selling to convince traders that a breakout could be underway.
I want you to think real hard about this.I want you to think real hard about this.
Be really honest with yourself.
What do actually think is gonna happen to Bitcoin when stock markets enter a bear era?
Short answer: it won't be pretty.
Every bull market needs a bearhistory likes to repeat itself
200 daily ma - if we break it lower, this will trigger a new bear market
Tarrif Wars Bear Market
What we saw in 1929 and 2000 is happening in 2025With how bad the economic data is right now, there's no way we can push through this trendline. Short SPY long TLT
SPX price geometry using channel gridsIf you appreciate market geometry like me than this one will interest you. This may look like a mess to untrained eyes, but it gives valuable information. 3640 is the next stop according to the grid intersection that happens at a very good horizontal price support. I dont like to use a single channel because it can be very subjective and you see what you want to see. But when the angle and width is tested by past history it removes personal bias and more accurate
SPX Price patterns and past correctionsI have drawn identical channels and even stacked them over each other at some places. Considering SPX has corrected only 6% I think this time it may have more to go when comparing past corrections. If 5700 breaks (most likely to ) then 5400,which would be about 10% correction. During Trumps last term his tariff caused a fall of 20% in 2018 Oct-Dec. This time the tariffs are more severe. So one should be cautious and not fall for short bounces
SPX similaritiesshowing a similar pattern of volatility and technical recession patterns are showing. The difference between this and the 2022 is the yields have uninverted on the yield curve. This might lead to a real turn down if there is not a government to step in.
SPX-Will history repeat itself or just rhyme?We have come down to the 200-day moving average. The macd indicator shows the same as on August 7, 2024. The big question is whether it will become even more oversold.
SPX into a SUICIDE ded Support ZoneIt must support on top of this fibonacci zone. Days will go and the market should stay here to accumulate. or use it to bounce up when the market get a better return (considering it breaks the support and go deeper). Bitcoin is moving quite similar, with a fibonacci zone that represents the same.
Crash or Boom? A look at what's nextFor those that have eyes to see (you don't even need ears to hear) a look at the charts can show us trends of new and old. These trends encapsulate psychology. Here's what I see.
Take a look at the chart, and ask me what all this means. OR, if you don't agree with the annotations, give me your take.
$SPX500USD Potentials <3Personally, I am super bullish and gonna be buying any dips.
There are some complications that appear on the chart as of this time.
Buy Targets at:
4600-4700
5250-5350
5650-5750
In my opinion the market is looking to run to 7600-10000 points by the end of 2028.
Miraculous, I know.
Enjoy,
Mr. Storm
