I spy an Evening Star Doji on SPXso alot is going on. when we gapped up and ran nonstop 3/25-3/26, i decided to look for reversal signals. tues was a tight range. it formed a doji; which was suspect. the move below the open print today was the second. and now i see we are up on a tweet and a prayer. this 3 candlestick pattern confirms that. however... the higher timeframes are in a wide range. so, if we reverse the bearish candlestick >5720 i believe we can retrace a bit... maybe revisit the sell fell off area.
***to invalidate the sell trigger, we need to bet above the doji.
***if we do keep rocking and rolling... note this area. it is an unfilled gap as of now. if it gaps down, wait to see how 1st 15-30mins react. looks like ES-emini gapped down a bit. that may be it, but this is an A+ set up for a trip back to take out short term lows at least. tootles!
For more on the pattern... I love the breakdown/visual provided here:
alchemymarkets.com
SPXM trade ideas
1 April 25 - Double Bottom of forming Double Top Bear Flag
Yesterday's candlestick closed as a big bull bar in its upper half with a long tail below. The market gapped down and traded below the March 13 low but lacked follow-through selling.
The bulls see the current move as a retest of the prior extreme low (Mar 13).
They want the market to reverse from a lower low major trend reversal pattern.
At the very least, they want the market to form a larger 2-legged sideways to up pullback testing the 20-day EMA or the Mar 25 high.
They must create follow-through buying today to increase the odds of higher prices.
The bears got a retest of the Mar 13 low and saw yesterday simply as a pullback.
They want the pullback to form a lower high to Mar 25 high, forming a larger double top bear flag.
They want the 20-day EMA or the bear trend line to act as resistance.
Today, traders will see if the bulls can create follow-through buying. If they can, the market may trade a little higher towards the Mar 25 high area.
After a big move yesterday, the odds of a couple of hours of sideways trading early in the day increase.
S&P INTRADAY awaits tariffs clarity capped by 5711Resistance Level 1: 5711
Resistance Level 2: 5788
Resistance Level 3: 5863
Support Level 1: 5487
Support Level 2: 5412
Support Level 3: 5262
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Don’t Let a Green Candle Fool YouDon’t Let a Green Candle Fool You | SPX Analysis 01 April 2025
We got the “boing” – but not the bounce that changes anything meaningful.
Monday opened like a trap door - gap down, quick poke near 5500, and then a full day of rallying that had CNBC anchors high-fiving like they just called the bottom of the century.
Except… they didn’t.
We’ve seen this act before. One-day rallies that puff up like a balloon, then vanish. And just like before, I’m not chasing a single green candle or headline optimism. I’m not a bull until 5700 is reclaimed - simple as that. That’s the bear flag failure point, the GEX pivot, and my personal line in the sand.
So while the crowd celebrates a maybe-double-bottom, I’m keeping my slippers firmly on the bear side of the wardrobe. And if Monday proved anything, it’s this…
Sometimes, the trades you forget about end up being the ones that pay.
This Bounce Doesn’t Fool Me – Here's Why I’m Still Short
Let’s call it what it is: a rally inside a bearish structure. Until we break the top of that structure, it’s just noise.
Here’s what really matters:
Monday gapped down, dropped toward 5500, and then staged a rally.
Everyone’s calling “double bottom!” - but I’ve seen more convincing bottoms on a bowling ball.
These reversal days have been common lately – I counted five in the last six weeks.
We’re still under 5700, which is the GEX flip, the flag failure, and the bullish invalidation.
That means I’m still riding:
Bear Swing #1 – opened last week, still on.
New aggressive shorts – 10-min bearish Tag ‘n Turn below 5500 only.
Bonus: A Forgotten Trade Hit Target on Monday
You’ll love this.
I had a bearish swing from around 20 March. Honestly, I forgot about it. Wrote it off. It was gathering dust in the corner of my options book.
Then, boom – Monday open… "Order Filled".
Target hit. Gap did the job. Payout in the pocket.
It’s a reminder every trader needs:
“It ain’t over until expiration… and sometimes not even then.”
GEX Analysis Update
Whole and half numbers acting as support and resistance
Expert Insights: Avoid These Rookie Mistakes
❌ Mistake #1: Getting Sucked Into Green Candles
Just because the market bounced doesn’t mean it’s time to flip bull. Watch the levels, not your feelings.
❌ Mistake #2: Cancelling Too Early
The Trade’s Not Over Just Because You’re Bored
Most traders kill good trades because they get impatient.
They cancel too soon. They “manage the trade” to death. Or worse, they chase a green candle and flip bias on a whim.
Here’s what Monday reminded us:
✅ Let the trade breathe.
That bear swing from 20 March? Forgotten. Ignored. Hit target anyway.
✅ Stick to your plan, not your mood.
The market rallied. But did it change the structure? No. Still below 5700. Still bearish bias.
✅ A good trade doesn’t need your babysitting.
Set the rules. Place the trade. Walk away. Check back later with a smile.
The traders who win are the ones who stop trying to outsmart their own system.
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Fun Fact
In 1999, a 15-year-old stock trader named Jonathan Lebed made over $800,000 pumping penny stocks from his bedroom... before the SEC came knocking.
Moral of the story? Markets will always reward confidence, consistency, and a little bit of cunning – but it’s the trader who sticks to a rule-based system who lasts beyond the headlines.
SPX next 5 years outlookIn this chart I show my SPX long term view from covid recovery to about 2030.
SPX is moving in a big rising wedge, I think that on the long term prospective we're still in the 3rd bullish wave targeting 6440 area. From there I see a retracement (4th wave) to 4800 area before last bullish 5th wave to 7400 area.
From 7440 I see a sharp bearish retracement , the breaking of rising wedge will lead spx to target 4200 area.
On the medium term I think that we've to test 3320 area before targeting 6440 (completion of 3rd wave), but on the short term I see a retracement to retest 6000 area before dump to 3320.
US500 Price ActionHello Trader,
As you can see, the market is currently moving to the downside, approaching a clearly identified Demand Zone. Remember, as I always emphasize: no liquidity, no valid zone. Therefore, I've also marked liquidity levels located just above this Demand Zone, along with a suggested safe Stop Loss (SL) placement. However, please keep in mind that no level is truly "safe" in trading, which is precisely why we always use stop losses and actively manage risk on every trade.
Additionally, I've highlighted two potential Take Profit (TP) areas: one where you might consider closing your trade early for safety, and another where you could hold your position if price action continues to move favorably.
As always, avoid greed, prioritize risk management, and trade responsibly.
Wishing you all the best and happy trading!
Thank you.