SPX500 Indicator on the edge of the bladeIf the support of the red diagonal line breaks, it can correct to the specified ranges. We should certainly see this support lose in the event of bad economic data releases, along with a tariff war.
SPXM trade ideas
BEAR 2025 IN NUMBERS (2.0)🐻 In my May post last year about the U.S. stock market’s mid-term cycle, I promised to estimate the probable amplitude of the forecasted correction in the current cycle.
"When should we expect the bottom of the current 4-year cycle? If we are near the top, considering the current 20-week base cycle that has just begun, we can preliminarily talk about October-November 2024. The average correction from the top of a 4-year cycle ranges from 20% to 50%. Once the cycle’s peak is reached, we will be able to estimate the approximate correction level."
👉 I already made a numerical forecast in early September, but it turned out to be premature. Another base cycle was needed to form the peak of the long cycle, which is now in the correction phase.
☝️ Assuming that:
🔸 The December 9 extreme forecast, made at the beginning of 2024, became the peak of the 4-year and 50-week cycles. On the futures chart, this level is the absolute maximum—see the futures chart.
🔸 The double top of the current 20-week base cycle at the January 29 extreme forecast confirmed the end of the 4-year trend.
This level can be taken as the starting point for calculating target correction levels.
☝️ The calculation is based on technical support levels and the following assumptions:
1️⃣ The average correction from the top of a 4-year cycle ranges from 20% to 50%.
2️⃣ When coinciding with the 4-year cycle, the final phase of the 50-week DJIA cycle often tests or breaks the low of the previous 50-week cycle.
3️⃣ The start of a new 4-year cycle will be bullish. Ahead of a more severe crash in the next 1.5 years due to the 7-year crisis cycle, the risk of a stock market drop greater than 25% in the current base cycle is low.
👉 The resulting target levels are:
🔸 **DJIA** -17% to 1st level **38,000**
🔸 **DJIA** -20% to 2nd level **36,000**
🔸 **SPX** -20% to 1st level **4,900**
🔸 **SPX** -25% to 2nd level **4,600**
⚠️ The current 4-year cycle has clearly been prolonged, resembling the situation during the 1987 crash. The next 4-year cycle may be shortened to 3.5 years.
Remember that the new 4-year cycle should complete the current 7-year crisis cycle, bottoming out in 2028, with tops in summer 2025 and spring 2026. The timing is perfect so far.
SPX chart update after calling moves to the $ for 3 yearsHere is the 1st chart I did of SPX back in Jan 2022:
I called the drop to the yellow line on chart. Nailed it to nearly the exact $.
Then in October 2023 I mentioned this:
The rally was confirmed for the next 6 months minimum.
Then in Jan 2024 I posted a red horizontal line as target for the rally:
Now you can see on current bottom chart that price hit the red line target.
This chart setup you see on bottom chart also shows relevance to the 1st chart I did on SPX where when the blue EMA8 went below the orange MA21, a drop happened as per the red X marks and price changes shown on chart. This is close to happening currently which is easier to see on the top chart as I give a close up view on current price action and the EMA/MA's.
Are we about to see a drop as per yellow price change on chart or can SPX bounce from here and move up to the green horizontal line on chart? The EMA/MA crossunder will tell us.
Even though I called the moves all correct previously, at this time in the markets, things are alot trickier so I cannot say with conviction this time around as to which way it will go.
I will update the analysis once the bounce or cross under is confirmed.
Banker Candle levels - UntouchedA chart with untouched, higher time-frame, "left behind" aka banker calls aka flat-bottom candles. Darker color indicates multiple time fram correlation (monthly/daily/4-1hr) and includes overnight session range.
spx daily chartPossible bottom on daily chart for stock markets.
If there was a chance for a bounce, it's now!
peak volume on bottom
Market SnapshotI really wonder how 1600 Pennsylvania Ave is going to explain away what happens later this year and into the next
This is not good people...this is not good
S&P500 Index Goes 'Draconian', ahead of Roller Coaster ExplosionThe S&P 500's "roller coaster" behavior stems from its sensitivity to various economic, geopolitical, and market-specific factors that influence investor sentiment and corporate performance.
Economic Factors: Changes in interest rates, inflation, and Federal Reserve policies significantly impact the index. For example, rising interest rates can reduce corporate earnings and valuations, leading to market sell-offs. Conversely, expectations of rate cuts can boost optimism and drive rallies.
Investor Sentiment and Volatility: The S&P 500 is closely tied to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often called the "fear gauge." The VIX rises during market downturns as investors seek portfolio protection, amplifying price swings. This inverse correlation highlights how fear or optimism can drive sharp movements in the index.
Global Events: Geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, or pandemics can disrupt markets by creating uncertainty about future economic performance. Such events often lead to sudden spikes or drops in the S&P 500 as investors react to perceived risks.
Valuation Cycles: Overvaluation or bubbles in specific sectors can lead to corrections. For instance, high price-to-earnings ratios combined with slower economic growth can result in prolonged periods of stagnation or volatility.
These factors collectively create the "roller coaster" effect begun in the S&P 500.
// Life is like a roller coaster, as you don't know what's going to be thrown at you next, so all you can do is give us your best shot.
--
Best wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team 😎
SPX500 is heading to a major correction.Just reading the charts—and if history repeats itself, we’ve entered a weekly MACD and RSI downtrend.
I called this for Bitcoin a month ago, and some argued it could be invalidated. Now, we can see that’s nearly impossible.
Macro Outlook
The economy is in bad shape—you see the news.
Trump’s tariffs are scaring investors for a good reason. He wants to avoid money printing and tighten supply, but how will companies and institutions get cash? By selling their stocks.
No more free money—profits will have to come from selling assets, which will intentionally crash the market under Trump’s policy.
Cycles & Recession
We’re at the end of a cycle—everything is overbought and needs a reset before moving higher.
We’re in a recession, even if no one wants to admit it.
Conclusion
📉 Target price: 4850
📅 Estimated bottom: September 15, 2025
Expect volatility, occasional pumps, but on a weekly scale, the trend is down—unless something drastic happens. Q3 and Q4 will be bullish.
🚨 DYOR!
S&P Weekly... One More Shoulder?When we take a look at the weekly chart of the S&P with some indicators, seems like we are close to the end of a trend. RSI with the negative divergence, Stoch RSI and Macd heading down, possible head & shoulders pattern. Fibonacci (retracement) is also turning down from the 200 mark. 20 week average is broken down. Fibo 161 is almost at the same level as the 50 week average, which might hold the trend if we are lucky. Considering the pattern between Jan 2nd 2022 and Jan 2nd 2024 as a cup and handle, seems like we have reached its target level as well. One other option is the Elliott wave. If so, there might be a 5th leg, not sure if it will be higher though. Time will tell. However, the monthly chart is not looking bright either. Being cautious is a good idea.
The Golden Age 7000 EOY SPXThe Golden Age (year) is here!
Have cash ready for May in April. Be heavy hedges going in to 26.
We're going to juice earnings with all the investments pouring in for just about every single industry. Once the injection is complete, we will reset while all the invested money completes projects.
GL!
Better Buy Bitcoin
Strangle options $SPX target +/- 300 points RSI weakness is quite notable . Friday volume raise and large red candle suggest more volatility into coming weeks . suggest wide swing +/- 300 points so SPX heading to 5700 or 6300 . My idea is to watch Monday close then enter the strangle options combo .
spx yükseliş ihtimali yüksek satmayın !!!Many people interpreted this as a sell signal due to the sudden drop, but this is not a sell signal, it is an increase in voltitre. You can also see it on VIX and it is within expectations, the risk will be incredibly high, but what I will do is to add gradually (in large amounts).
It is not investment advice.
SPX Shorts on Retracement SPX appears to be in a downtrend.
If we are, then the optimal trades should be shorting the 76 retracements.
One fiilling now.
Shorts here.
$SPX Fractal IdeaI've been watching this 2023 fractal play out very similarly since Summer '24.
It would mean a drop around 5,500 by late March/early April before continuation of the uptrend into late 2025.
S&P 500: Short-Term Rebound Before a Deeper Drop?Expecting a rebound for the SP500 from current levels until mid-March (around the 13th). We anticipate a strong sell-off after that, lasting until late March or early April, potentially bottoming between $5,100 and $5,400. Afterward, a massive bottom followed by a strong upward move for both the S&P 500 and the broader U.S. stock market, including crypto.
SPX path from here 12/6/2024Refer to the chart for two potential scenarios in the SPX:
Bullish Scenario: A break and sustained hold above 6100 could confirm an upward move.
Bearish Scenario: The current level may act as resistance, leading to a gap fill at 6050, followed by a retest, offering a strong shorting opportunity targeting 5750-5850.
SPXRetested previously filled pre-election gap and now reclaiming January's low as support.
Unfilled gap near first quarter of yearly range and another unfilled at highs.
Simply want to see it hold this level.
Zelenskyy deal soon?
SPX and PCE. So when is it time to short?The crowd is betting on a drop at the worst possible time. The blue line represents the SPX, the red line represents the put buys. Will the price bounce off the 200-day moving average or are we headed lower? We'll find out in this week's data dump.
Stay calm.
S&P500 breakdown indicates new downtrend? S&P's price get to the level of 5869 which could have been a good buy option (looking at the trandline)
(it's also middle of fvg created in November)
However price after short pullback, rejected and went through trendline.
It might indicate strong pressure from sellers and new down trend.
For now waiting for confirmation on next candles, possible entry point for sell: around 5890.
SPX BOUNCETop is in unless a new ATH, this is the start of a longer leg down. We had a great close over the 50% fib the last few days so i am ready for a bounce to reload shorts. It s tight stop, if we fail to hold above the 50% of this current move around 6030-6050 then the move is over and the leg down will continue. Also we could just take out this current low and go for 5800.
$SPX $SPY We are at the 200 Day Moving Average
We are right at the 200 day moving average - a major level. I think we see a small bounce here. The weekly 35EMA is here too and the two together can be a force.
$SPX is the Sky Falling? Not just yet, if at all. while it looks gloomy, lets consider the precedent established in the past few weeks. Between 5700 and 5860 we have 2 volume shelves, where we've seen an increase in buying volume. Couple this with the converging anchored VWAPs and a 150 Daily Moving average hovering there, I think we have a good basis to at least pause in the "sky is falling" narrative. It could very well be falling but its not confirmed. This level is key, IMO.
$SPX - Top of the MountainSPX is once again, since its uptrend began on 11/06/2023, breaking below the 3-month simple moving average and now also the Monthly Heiken Ashi average (black stepped line).
This time, it seems to have the conditions to start its descent from the mountain and confirm that we reached the top on 02/18/2025.
Looking at the vast majority of stocks in today’s pre-market, this appears to be the scenario.
And this impacts my recent positions. In this scenario, it will seek the 1-year simple moving average, where it should make a pullback (HH or LH?).
Time for caution and to avoid new long entries.
