T/R zonesThis idea is based on transient/recurrent zones
Very high probability (90%+) for the price to hit TP.
Probability was calculated on TF 5min.
SPXM trade ideas
Selling could be exhausted. Excellent few trading weeks,. During this time we've done over 30% profit on low risk (for context, our max drawdown to get that is less than the SPX drop of the high, and we've done 3 times the annual SPX average in a little over a week) with the best trade coming yesterday paying close to 3,000 on OTM daily puts.
But I feel the tides may be turing. We maybe see a capitulation wave 5 in the end of yesterday.
I do longer have a bear bias for the immediate future.
Exited all indices/crypto and stocks shorts.
U.S. Indices on the Brink: A 10-15% Market Correction Ahead?At Vital Direction, our Elliott Wave, Fibonacci, and Gann analysis suggests that the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, and broader U.S. markets are approaching a major topping formation, setting the stage for a sharp 10-15% correction.
We anticipate this downturn to unfold between now and mid-April, with potential bottoming phases emerging either in early March or mid-April. From there, we expect a strong recovery, leading indices back to their all-time highs or near them by August to November 2025 before a massive reversal unfolds.
Investor Caution Advised!
Sentiment remains extremely bullish, but we urge traders to prepare for heightened volatility and downside risks in the short term. This could be a pivotal moment before the next major bullish phase!
S&P 500 Drops Below 100-Day Moving Average The S&P 500 has broken below its 100-day simple moving average (SMA), a key technical level that many traders and institutions use to gauge trend strength. Historically, when the price falls below this moving average, it often signals a potential shift in market sentiment.
What This Means:
🔹 Potential Trend Reversal? If the index fails to recover above this level, we could see increased selling pressure, leading to further downside.
🔹 Bearish Confirmation: A sustained close below this moving average might attract more short sellers, reinforcing a downward move.
🔹 Buying Opportunity? If buyers step in and reclaim the 100-day SMA, this could be a temporary dip before resuming the uptrend.
Are we looking at the start of a deeper correction or just a pullback before new highs? Let’s see how the market reacts!
#SP500 #TechnicalAnalysis #MovingAverages #TradingStrategy
Bulls and Bears zone for 02-28-2025We had six down days in a row which we have not seen in a while. S&P is probably testing January Lows.
Level to watch: 5888 --- 5886
S&P INTRADAY previous support new resistance?S&P (US500) index pair price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation after a retest of an all-time high on 19th Feb ‘25.
The key trading level is at the 5918 level, the consolidation price range and also the previous support is now a newly formed resistance zone. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bullish breakout above the 5918 level could target the upside resistance at 5967 followed by the 6014 and 6056 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed rejection at the 5918 resistance and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 5853 support level followed by 5827 and 5780.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPX500 Bearish Breakout!
HI,Traders !
SPX500 is going down
And the Indice made a bearish
Breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 5938.38 and the
Breakout is confirmed so we
Are bearish biased and we
Will be expecting a further
Bearish move down!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow !
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 6140.Dear Colleagues, price has gone lower than I thought it would and now we need to redraw the waves. Apparently, the price has updated the minimum of wave “2”. Therefore, I believe that the price will soon continue the upward movement in wave “3” anyway.
The “ABC” correction seems to be completed and the 5915 area served as support for the second time.
I expect the price to touch this area once again and then continue to the resistance area of 6140.
Or it will immediately start moving towards this area.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Shorting the S&P at 6000We previously picked the turning point of the S&P at the all time high.
We now expect this to continue with the downtrend as it approaches the strong 6000 resistance.
1) There is pattern
2) H4 and D1 are down
3) M15 is overbought, awaiting divergence
We target the low of 5915 which will give a 1:2.5 R:R
S&P 500 Breakdown | What’s Causing the Drop? The S&P 500 has broken down from a rising wedge pattern, triggering a sharp decline. Let’s break down why this is happening and what it could mean for the market.
🔍 Key Reasons for the Sell-Off
1️⃣ Rising Yields and Interest Rate Fears
The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates remains a major driver of market movement.
Recent economic data has delayed expectations of rate cuts, leading to a spike in Treasury yields.
Higher yields make equities less attractive, pushing investors toward bonds instead of stocks.
2️⃣ Overextended Market & Profit-Taking
The S&P 500 hit all-time highs recently, and many stocks had become overbought.
Large funds and institutions may be taking profits, especially in high-growth tech stocks.
This type of rotation can trigger a broader market pullback as traders lock in gains.
3️⃣ Technical Breakdown of Key Support Levels
The S&P 500 broke below critical support at 5,866, which has now turned into resistance.
The index also failed to hold key moving averages, confirming a technical breakdown.
Volume on red days has increased, showing strong selling pressure.
4️⃣ Weakness in Mega-Cap Tech Stocks
Big Tech stocks like NVDA, AAPL, and GOOGL, which have led the rally, are seeing a pullback.
This weakness drags down the overall index, as these stocks have an outsized influence on the S&P 500.
5️⃣ Geopolitical & Economic Uncertainty
Global tensions and rising oil prices are adding pressure to markets.
Concerns about slowing economic growth are also weighing on investor sentiment.
Earnings reports from major companies have been mixed, adding to the uncertainty.
What’s Next?
The S&P 500 could find support around 5,750 - 5,800 if the selling continues.
A rebound above 6,000 would signal strength, but failing to reclaim key levels could mean further downside.
The 200-day SMA is still holding, so bulls still have hope unless we see a deeper break.
Is this just a pullback, or are we seeing the start of a larger correction? Let me know your thoughts!
S&P 500 Index Wave Analysis – 27 February 2025
- S&P 500 index broke support zone
- Likely to fall support level 5800.00
S&P 500 index recently broke the support zone between the key support level 5925.00 (low of the previous waves a and c), the support trendline of the daily up channel from September and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from January.
The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active short-term correction ii – which belongs to the higher raves 3 and (C).
S&P 500 index can be expected to fall to the next support level 5800.00, a low of the previous minor corrections a and 2.
Getting CloserLately the market has been confusing. It appears traders are not clear minded on the economy, the recently voted in administration's policies, and that uncertainty is definitely showing up in the price action.
Be that as it may be, this is an update on the SPX cash index I posted last week as more of the price action fills in. I'll try to update this weekly.
Best to all,
Chris
SPX heading for daily 200 or weekly 50 in next week or twoTargeting 5700-5730 in next week or two. This is still only about 5-7% correction from peak. Ideally we need a10% correction. Which means 5650 should be doable.
The stock market is not "Crashing"!I keep hearing people saying the stock market is crashing, a mild pullback is hardly a crash, we are not crashing, at least not yet, and maybe not for an extended period.
We use the S&P 500 because it is the best gauge of our markets with the most diverse representation of any of our indices.
A short history of the trend of our stock marker since 1992, correlated to presidencies.
1992-1999 Clinton: Stock market transitioned from fairly flat to a steady ascending path, we reduced our yearly deficit 6 years and had a budget surplus 2 years.
2000-2007 George Bush Jr: Descending or neutral trend most of the 8 years, we broke our 15 year ascending trend and started an overall descending trend. Deregulation led to the recession via predatory lending giving Walmart cashiers $300k loans, banks labeling bad debt as Grade A and banks leveraging 80% of all of Americans money on risky investments. 2008 was devastating for the US Stock market. Increased the yearly deficit 6 of 8 years.
2008-2015 Obama: Converted descending trend back to ascending trend and trended up in a tight ascending channel for the rest of his presidency, while implementing an array of regulations to prevent banks from doing this to America again. Decreased the yearly deficit 6 of 8 years.
2016-2020 Trump.v1: Maintained tight ascending channel and broke out of 15 year resistance, introduced a lot of lot of volatility and uncertainty, ultimately ended term with the market on the same trajectory it was when he took office. Diluted all US Dollars by 50%, 25% of the dilution was in 2020, coupled with $3T of quantitative easing in a single year (2020) and more than $2T direct stimulus, this dilution and excessive stimulus during a supply chain crunch directly conveyed into rising inflation the following 2 years. Increased our yearly deficit every year in office.
2021-2024 Biden: Broke out of ascending path to a much steeper and unsustainable ascending path, likely due to all the stimulus pumped into the market in 2020 & 2021. Hard pull back in 2021/2022 as Interest rates were increased to deter spending to reduce interest rates which skyrocketed to 10% in 2021 and was brought back down to just above 2% by 2024. We saw a volatile and sharp ascending channel form. At the end of his term, the market was at top of channel and well above all time highs with some of the most growth in the stock market ever witnessed anywhere on earth, ever, as seen in the charts, nearly doubling the S&P 500 in 4 years, the American economy was booming! Decreased the yearly deficit 2 of 4 years.
2025-2038 Trump.v2: Inherited the market at all time highs on the steepest incline we have witnessed to date, and at a point the market is expected to retract based on the charts. Currently it looks like the S&P could lose 15% or so of its value and still be in our ascending channel of 6 years now. As you can see recent pullbacks don’t even register on a weekly candle. Yes these tariffs and subsequent tariff wars will almost certainly wreak havoc on markets as we already see increase in unemployment, significant drops in consumer confidence, increase in debt ceiling, increase in debt through corporate tax breaks, uptick in inflation and uncertainty in policy but --- we still have a long way to fall before we can call this a bear market or a crash. If we do breakdown from the ascending channel, we can expect the S&P to eye around 3200, or nearly half of its current value. If this administration takes over the federal reserve, they can stimulate the economy to fight the decline and prolong the consequences but those measures will involve further dilution, further debt, further smoke in mirrors, further uncertainty and will likely ignite a ticking time bomb with even greater consequences then outlined here.
So in short, stop saying the market is crashing, it is not. But, be vigilant, there is a high probability of short term pullback and a long term crash based on the charts, historical precedence and current administrations activities.
SPX500 Bullish Reversal CallThe index is on good daily trendline support. Plus, there is a divergence with the breaking previous LH and giving all evidence to start a new bull trend on 1H TF. Planning to get 1:2 with the given trade plan.
S&P500, US GDP grew by 2.3% in Q4 The U.S. GDP grew by 2.3% annually in Q4, confirming the initial estimate and meeting market expectations. S&P (US500) index pair price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation after a retest of an all-time high on 19th Feb ‘25.
The key trading level is at the 5918 level, the consolidation price range and also the previous resistance is now a newly formed support zone. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 5918 level could target the upside resistance at 6018 followed by the 6060 and 6106 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 5918 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 5866 support level followed by 5827 and 5777.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Bounce Doesn't Look Convincing SPX made a bit of a bounce off the support levels but it's not shown the strong properties I'd have expected to see in the bat D leg or the C leg I spoke of.
All trailing stops on longs hit.
If we can continue to break out to the upside I'll probably have to buy breaks with tight stops but I think the more likely looking setup here is we make a new low.
If a new low comes from the setup we have a butterfly forms just under the last lows. This is a big inflection point. Either a low is made or we trend down strong under it.
This would also agree with the big 1.61 inflection area.
Starting to think I was wrong about the bigger bull trap idea and we might see a break. Back in shorts.
Possible Bat Forming In my initial mention and entry at the low I posted the Elliot ABC corrective pattern.
Then I remembered we live in the age of eternal stop hunting. Upon some further consideration, I suspect if my bear thesis is correct we'll likely see a new high first.
Probably the short being 6160.
The difference between the ABC and the bat D leg does not matter at this point. Both are strong buys to the retracement levels.
Just a heads up because the possible bat pattern changes the way we go about fading the rally (And I will be trying to fade a rally if it comes).
At things stand, I suspect 6160 is the destination for SPX.
All long stops are in profit now, just waiting to see if we can break up.
17 Year cycle for SPXThis is a seventeen year cycle chart for the SPX. Data earlier in the century is adapted from the DOW.
It shows a consistent topping pattern every 17 years.
LongLong.
Looks like good trades
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice.
SPX the bullish case to 7k or is the top in now? or bearish?Here are the levels for bull or bear on the SPX based off a fib extension from the macro lows.
What is interesting is how the price has reacted off the 0.618 and 0.5 levels suggesting that it has further to go because we have broken out
However if you draw another fib extension from the lows it shows a top around 6100-6150 range where we are now.
Good luck - lets hope the bulls win out and crypto takes off too. If you do the same analysis on the Nasdaq fib tops out at 26,400 where fib is equal to 1. that implies Nas to over perform to 20-25% from todays levels hence supports the argument here for higher prices on the SPX
SPX500For follow-up and to evaluate the movement at these levels,
in case this pattern is adopted ..
SPX needs to close above $6,700 next month to be bullish. The 3 month on a breakout indicator is doing a higher low which signals a market reversal. The Red line on the Breakout indicator is a simulation if SPX will close above $6700. Usually, the market tops at the red step average, if SPX can close above that, it will be a massive move to the upside, if it touches it or barely touches it, it might be on a reversal. The support is the Step Average Blue line but im looking for it to go easily on the Green Step Average line.
