SPXM trade ideas
Nikkei, S&P500, Nasdaq, Hang Seng Short: Educational UpdateThis is really an extra video that I made because I see some educational value. I use Nikkei 225 to show repeating of patterns and the fractal nature of the market, S&P and Nasdaq to demonstrate the usage of Fibonacci levels and study of historical support and resistance, and finally Hang Seng to discuss on placing stop losses and how noise in lower time frames may require us to ignore certain "unclean" waves.
Overall, I still put this idea as a short because all the indices used are still short ideas in my opinion.
Good luck!
Bull vs Bear: The 5700 FlipzoneBull vs Bear: The 5700 Flipzone | SPX Analysis 27 Mar 2025
Some days, the best trade is no trade at all.
It’s Thursday, the kettle’s on, the charts are up… and I’ve done absolutely bugger all from a trading perspective. Not out of laziness (though I do love a good sit-down), but because nothing’s screaming "go". And when nothing’s screaming, I don’t go running.
We’re smack-dab in the middle of the “flip zone” - right around 5700. The market’s pacing like a nervous cat, pretending to pick a direction, but mostly just knocking things off the shelf to keep us on our toes. And honestly? I’m good with it. Because when the market hesitates like this, it’s usually winding up for something worth waiting for.
Stick with me and I’ll show you how to turn “nothing happening” into “something smart”.
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Deeper Dive Analysis:
Today felt a bit like turning up to a party early and realising no one’s there yet. Just me… and the punch bowl.
I’ve barely done a thing trade-wise. And I’m perfectly happy about it. Because when there’s no clear setup, the smartest thing you can do is absolutely nothing.
Here’s why:
The 5700 level continues to act like the social bouncer of this range - nobody gets through without a convincing ID. It’s the pivot point where bulls and bears are circling, eyeing each other like it’s a West Side Story dance-off.
Bear pulse bars? None yet. So while price has dribbled downward in that slow, lazy style, we’ve had no real confirmation of fresh bearish momentum.
Bull pulse bars? Not exactly punching through the ceiling either. For that, we need to see solid moves above 5720 and, ideally, a breakout-pullback pattern to load up a fresh bull swing.
What’s more interesting is the GEX (Gamma Exposure). This week’s setup highlights 5700 as the flip point, reinforcing what we’ve already seen in price behaviour. When the options market lines up with technicals, I start paying even more attention.
The ES futures chart (with overnight data) shows the same range boundaries a little more clearly. It’s painting a picture of compression. And as you know from experience, compression always precedes expansion.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: patience pays.
We're in the eye of the storm - the kind where people get twitchy, traders get emotional, and portfolios get wrecked... unless you're working the system.
So here's the play:
No new bear trades until pulse bars form below 5700.
Bull trades only trigger on solid breaks above 5720.
Until then? Watch. Wait. Brew tea.
Because I’d rather miss the first 10 points of the move than get slapped for trying to be clever.
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Fun Fact
There’s a stock ticker called YUM. Yes, really.
YUM Brands – owner of Taco Bell, KFC, and Pizza Hut – trades under the very appropriate ticker: YUM. Now that’s branding you can taste.
YUM Brands spun off from PepsiCo in 1997 and has since become a global fast food empire. With over 50,000 restaurants in more than 150 countries, it’s been gobbling up global market share like it’s a late-night snack. The ticker symbol “YUM” is one of Wall Street’s more deliciously accurate tickers – and proves that branding doesn’t stop at the menu. Fun fact: KFC was once known as “Kentucky Fried Chicken” until the name got a trim for health-conscious times. Go figure.
SPX500 H4 | Bullish uptrend to extend further?SPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 5,704.90 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 5,590.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 5,848.75 which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
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S&P 500 Correction Channel Keeps Bulls in Control, for NowThe S&P 500 has formed an uptrend channel after breaking out of the "tariff panic" downtrend, which had dragged the index down more than 10%. But is this new short-term uptrend merely a correction, or has the real direction changed? That’s the key question, one that will likely be answered in early April when the new tariffs take effect.
February consumer confidence data didn’t look promising, but much of the negativity had already been priced in during the earlier 10% sell-off. However, this week’s PCE report, combined with next week’s tariffs and jobs report, could become a catalyst for determining the short- to medium-term direction.
The 200-hour SMA has now reached the upper line of the trend channel. Together, they may create a strong resistance level. To the downside, 5700 is a key horizontal support level. By the end of this week, it will converge with the lower boundary of the channel, right as both the GDP and PCE data are released. Including the time factor, this confluence could mark the main short-term support.
As long as the trend channel holds, bulls remain in control.
SP500US Markets has pulled back nicely, It now provides a wonderful opportunity to get back into the market, I expect another drop to take the previous low set couple of days ago. April tends to be a good month for indices as the first quarter closer and rebalancing occured.
my plan would be to buy the SP500 and ride the trend
SPX: Bear Flag? On the 4hr or a bounce off the 1D trendline?Market has been in a funk. Trump announces 25% tariffs on auto imports. Surprised markets didn’t tank more in AH.
Gap filled on a lot of charts today (3/26/25). Wondering now, on the daily if it bounces off this purple trend with unemployment data and PCE Friday.
A short on S&P at 5770S&P has been moving up quick strongly over the past few days. It has reached a level that is a strong resistance and we will show this pair today.
1) There is deep crab pattern
2) H1 is overbought
3) There is RSI divergence on M15, M30 and H1
We will take profit when RSI is oversold.
03/24 SPX Weekly GEX Outlook, Options FlowYou can see that every expiry has shifted into a stronger bullish stance heading into Friday, with GEX exposure moving upward across the board—though total net GEX is still in negative territory, while net DEX (delta exposure) is positive. This combination points toward a likely near-term rebound this week, which makes sense after testing the 5600 range last week….
Here’s a more detailed breakdown of the key zones and likely moves this week:
Bullish Target:
The current uptrend could reach 5750 on its first attempt (already reached in Monday, thx bullsh :) ). If a positive gamma squeeze emerges at that level, we might see an extension to 5800 or even 5850 as a final profit-taking zone for bulls this week.
HVL (Gamma Slip Zone):
Placed at 5680, this threshold currently supports a low-volatility environment. A drop below 5680, however, could reignite fear and fuel bearish momentum.
Put Floors & Net OI:
The largest net negative open interest (OI) cluster is at 5650, with the next key level near 5600. At 5600, net DEX reads fully positive, suggesting strong buying support if the market tests that lower boundary.
Soft US data stokes recession fears | FX ResearchA round of discouraging survey data out of the US on Tuesday has fueled more selling of the US dollar as the market prices in increased odds for recession. Philly Fed services and consumer confidence polls plunged to post-pandemic lows, while consumer expectations faltered on worry over personal finances. US equities, on the other hand, remained in demand—perhaps feeling good about the implication of the softer data in that it will invite an even more dovish, investor-friendly Fed reaction.
Of course, investors are also still worrying about the state of US tariffs and trade, though we have also seen tensions alleviated somewhat on this front in recent days on the news that tariffs will be more targeted.
Key standouts on Wednesday's calendar come from UK inflation data, Canada wholesale sales, US durable goods, the Bank of Canada summary of deliberations, and some ECB speak.
S&P500 - Donald Trump Is Crashing Markets!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is starting a correction:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Since Donald Trump was elected the markets have been super volatile and clearly not too easy to trade. But now it seems like bears are slowly taking over the entire U.S. stock market after we just saw a drop of -10% within a couple of days and a correction becomes more and more likely.
Levels to watch: $6.100, $4.800
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
S&P500: Recovered the 1W MA50. Best buy opportunity of 2025.The S&P500 is marginally neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.606, MACD = -47.070, ADX = 35.637) as it is in the process of recovery from the previous oversold condition. What the index did recover however, and which is a massive buy signal, is the 1W MA50. Technically this trendline held two weeks ago, despite marginally crossing under it, and provided the basis for a new long term bottom. Basically it is the exact same pattern as the October 23rd 2023 bottom, which was also a HL on the 3 year Channel Up, declined also by -11% and the 1W RSI was almost on the same level as today's low (the S1 level).
Every bullish wave inside this 3 year pattern hit at least the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. Given that this bottom was made on the 0.618 Channel Fib level, like both of the last two HL (Aug 5th 2024, April 15th 2024), we expect a test of the Channel's top by the end of the year. A TP = 6,700 would still be under the 2.0 Fib extension and that's out long term target.
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Buy SnP500Ready to Rally? I think so.
My best trading strategy is to follow the big money—to follow the actions of the market conductor. Right now, I see buying activity in the market and believe this idea has strong potential.
This is a med-term trade, so size your position wisely to avoid overloading your portfolio with a single trade. There are and will be plenty of great opportunities in the market. Give this position the time and space to realize its full potential.
Exact targets are unknown.
The best way to proceed here is by using a trailing stop-loss.
The first Stop Loss is set at 5495.
As the asset rises. move the stop loss higher.
S&P 500 eases back from 200-dayThe S&P 500 has been on an impressive two-week rally but is now encountering a crucial resistance zone. The index is currently testing resistance near the 200-day moving average and a previous support level in the 5770-5800 range. This key area, highlighted in grey on the chart, could determine whether the recent bullish momentum continues.
Meanwhile, support is found around 5695-5670, marked in blue on the chart. This zone is significant as it previously served as the launch point for the post-election rally before it lost steam. Reclaiming this level is a bullish signal, but the S&P 500 needs to stay above it through to next week to maintain its upward trajectory.
If support at 5695-5670 fails, the bulls could face serious headwinds. A breakdown at this level may trigger renewed selling pressure, similar to the declines seen in previous weeks. The situation could worsen if the index falls below 5600, which was Friday’s low, when a hammer candle was formed.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Trading a Pause in the Price Action
Some candlestick patterns shout their intentions, while others quietly mark a pause before the next move. The Doji falls into the latter category—it doesn’t tell you which way the market is going next, but it does highlight a moment of indecision that often precedes a meaningful move.
While traders sometimes mistake it for a reversal signal, the real significance of a Doji comes when price decisively breaks beyond its range. Let’s explore what a Doji represents, why its range is key and how traders can use it in different market conditions.
What Is a Doji?
A standard Doji forms when a market opens and closes at or very near the same price. This creates a candle with a thin or non-existent body and wicks on either side, showing that price moved up and down during the session but failed to establish a clear direction by the close.
The key takeaway? A Doji does not indicate a directional bias—it simply reflects the natural market cycle between indecision and decisive direction. It tells us that neither buyers nor sellers had the upper hand during that period.
Standard Doji Pattern
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
The Doji’s Range: Why It’s Important
Rather than trading the Doji itself, the focus should be on its high and low. When price breaks and closes beyond the Doji’s range, that’s when a potential trade setup forms:
• A close above the Doji’s high suggests buyers have taken control, increasing the likelihood of further upside.
• A close below the Doji’s low signals sellers are in charge, making downside continuation more probable.
This makes the Doji a pattern that doesn’t rely on lagging indicators. It provides a forward-looking view, allowing traders to anticipate where momentum might emerge.
A single Doji can be significant, but clusters of Doji candles—where price hesitates over multiple sessions—can create even stronger setups, particularly when they resolve with a decisive breakout.
Doji’s Range Becomes Significant
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Doji Breakout
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
How to Use the Doji in Trading
The Doji pattern works across all timeframes, from intraday charts to daily and even weekly price action. Looking at USD/JPY on the daily timeframe (see chart below), four Doji formations highlight how the pattern plays out in real-world trading:
USD/JPY Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Pattern 1 (Monday, 25th November 2024): A Doji formed, followed by a strong break below its range, leading to a clear move lower.
Patterns 2 & 3 (Early December 2024): Two Doji candles appeared close together, forming a Doji cluster. This hesitation phase was followed by a steady directional move higher.
Pattern 4 (Early February 2025): The initial break below the Doji’s range led to a short-lived move lower. However, price then pulled back, retested the Doji, and only after that retest did a more sustained downside move develop.
These examples show that the Doji is not a trading signal in isolation—it needs a decisive break to confirm the next move.
Trading the Doji Breakout
If a trader is looking to enter based on a Doji setup, they should consider the following:
• Wait for Confirmation – The most important factor is the breakout. A Doji on its own is just indecision; it’s the next candle that provides the real clue.
• Identify the Key Level – The high and low of the Doji form a mini-range. A close outside this range is the real signal.
• Manage Risk Properly – A common approach is to place a stop-loss just beyond the opposite side of the Doji’s range.
Because Doji candles highlight hesitation, they often form at key support or resistance levels. When price is already in an established trend, a Doji can act as a temporary pause before continuation.
Summary:
The Doji is a pause in price action, not a guarantee of reversal or continuation. The real significance lies in how price reacts after the Doji forms—a decisive break and close beyond its range is the key trigger.
While traders often focus on patterns that appear to provide clear direction, the Doji offers something different—it marks the moment before clarity emerges. Whether it leads to a breakout, a trend continuation, or a reversal depends entirely on the price action that follows.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
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SPX Stalls at Resistance - Here's What I’m Watching SPX Stalls at Resistance - Here's What I’m Watching | SPX Analysis 26 Mar 2025
You know that scene in every action movie where someone’s finger hovers over the big red button… and they don’t press it?
That’s me right now.
Because once again, sitting back and waiting for a cleaner entry zone is paying off. SPX tagged the upper Bollinger Band – like a polite tap on the shoulder – but hasn’t turned with any conviction.
No pulse bars. No reversal. Just a stall.
And that, my friend, is where we earn our edge – not by reacting early, but by knowing when not to act at all.
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Deeper Dive Analysis:
Markets don’t always reward the busy. Sometimes, the biggest wins come from doing… nothing.
And today is one of those days.
📍 SPX tagged the upper Bollinger Band
⏸️ But instead of turning sharply, price paused
🚫 No bearish pulse bars yet – which means no confirmed reversal
We’re in “hover mode”.
Which, translated to trader speak, means:
"Don’t be clever. Just wait."
🎯 I’m staying bullish above 5700
🧭 But I’m not placing blind trades just to feel productive.
If price breaks and holds above 5700, I’ll consider scaling in for a bullish continuation.
If we slip back below 5700, I’ll reassess for bearish setups and pulse bar confirmation. But until then? My finger’s off the button.
Why? Because I know this pattern.
The tag-with-no-turn often just means we’re not done yet. The trend might still have gas in the tank, or it’s winding up for a more dramatic move later.
Either way, I’m not front-running it.
And honestly? Watching others flinch and overtrade while I sip tea and wait is one of life’s great pleasures. 😎
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Fun Fact
📢 In 2006, someone accidentally sold 610,000 shares of a stock instead of 1.
💡 This infamous “fat-finger trade” cost Mizuho Securities $225 million in one afternoon — and became one of the most expensive typos in trading history.
Moral of the story?
In trading – as in typing – sometimes doing nothing is smarter than doing something fast.