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S&P 500 Index - Standard & Poors 500 (SPX)S&P 500 Index - Standard & Poors 500 (SPX)S&P 500 Index - Standard & Poors 500 (SPX)

S&P 500 Index - Standard & Poors 500 (SPX)

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Bullish Divergence and the Impact of Trump’s TariffsOn the daily chart of the S&P 500, I’m currently spotting a clear bullish divergence. This type of divergence is a technical pattern that suggests that, despite recent price drops, the downtrend is losing momentum and a potential upward move could be on the horizon. It shows that the index has underlying strength, which the price hasn’t fully reflected yet — making a bullish reversal very likely in the short to mid-term. In this context, the recent drop in the S&P 500 has been largely driven by Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, especially targeting China and other countries. However, based on my analysis, I believe that these tariffs were more of a negotiation tactic than a long-term economic strategy. And now that things are clearly not going as expected, I’m convinced that Trump will be forced to scale back the tariffs or start accepting less favorable trade agreements just to stop the bleeding — because I highly doubt he will allow this sharp market decline to continue unchecked. Why tariffs aren’t coherent or beneficial for the global economy Tariffs are additional taxes on imports. Although they’re often marketed as a way to protect local industries, in reality, they increase prices for consumers and destabilize global supply chains. The result is damaging for both the countries imposing the tariffs and those receiving them. In the case of the U.S., despite Trump’s promises, these tariffs are actually hurting American companies that rely on imported materials and products, leading to higher internal costs and squeezing consumers. Worse yet, this ongoing trade war has created a climate of global economic uncertainty, which is driving down investment and confidence. That uncertainty has translated into market selloffs around the world, and the S&P 500’s current decline is a direct reflection of that. Importantly, it’s U.S. businesses — not foreign governments — who are absorbing the cost of these tariffs. What to expect going forward Despite the pressure from tariffs, I believe that Trump — seeing the damage already being done to the markets — will have no choice but to start dialing things back. My take is that to avoid a deeper economic hit and restore investor confidence, the U.S. will likely pursue more balanced deals, even if it means compromising a bit. If this scenario plays out, I expect the S&P 500 to begin recovering, especially as investor uncertainty fades. The bullish divergence on the chart further reinforces the idea that once these external political and economic pressures ease, the market could see a strong and sharp rebound. Conclusion Trump’s tariffs were intended as leverage — but they’re clearly backfiring and doing more harm than good. The current S&P 500 correction, in my opinion, is actually a buying opportunity for those with a long-term view. With potential tariff reductions and fairer trade deals on the horizon, the market is likely to rebound strongly, especially with the bullish divergence we’re seeing on the charts. Markets may have already priced in the worst, and now we’re seeing the first technical signals of a potential turnaround. If confirmed, the price could begin to rally significantly in the coming days or weeks.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EmmanuelCova
1
SP500- Don't be fooled by yesterday's pumpThe markets reacted strongly to Jerome Powell's latest commentary, sparking a notable rally. However, traders should be cautious before assuming this marks the beginning of a new uptrend. While there has been a slight shift in market structure, the broader trend remains intact. Overlooking the strength of the next resistance level could prove to be a costly mistake. The Big Picture: S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis Examining the TRADENATION:US500 posted daily chart, the key question is: has the trend truly reversed? While a green-bodied candle signals some bullish momentum, SP500 remains below critical resistance levels. Notably, it closed beneath what I call the "Do or Die" zone—an area that aligns with prior lows and, more importantly, the daily 200 SMA. This suggests that what we’re seeing could be a lower high forming within the broader downtrend. Hourly Outlook: On the hourly chart, we see a strong reversal from 5500, but the move appears corrective rather than impulsive. It seems to be forming an ABC-style correction, with the market currently in wave C. Calculating the potential top of wave C, we find it aligns perfectly with a key resistance level and the 200-day SMA. Conclusion: While we may see some upside heading into the end of the week, I believe this rally will be short-lived. Once SP retests the broken support—now acting as resistance—I expect the downward trend to resume, with my target remaining at 5200 (as previously discussed). Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
TRADENATION:US500Short
by Mihai_Iacob
19
SPX: tariffs combined with inflationInflation expectations are on the rise again in the US. As markets are closely watching developments with trade tariffs, in combination with increasing inflation, the sentiment ended the week in a red zone. During the week, the S&P 500 was struggling to sustain a bit of positive sentiment, however, Friday's trading session brought back significant sell off of stocks. The week started at 5.780, but it ended at 5.580, losing 1,97% on Friday. In the last six weeks, the index spent five weeks in negative territory. Tech companies were the ones that dragged the rest of the market to the downside. META and Amazon were down by 4,3%, Apple dropped by 2,66%, Tesla lost 3,51% in value. Trade tariffs are still a cloud which brings high uncertainty to the market. News reported that both Canada and the European Union are considering reciprocal measures as a response to the imposed US tariffs. The US Administration announced last week potential 25% tariffs on all car imports to the US. As long as this kind of trade war is in the open space, it could not be expected that the market would consolidate and stabilize. In this sense, further high volatility might be expected. In the week ahead, the NFP and unemployment data for March will be posted, so this would be a day to watch.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
This doesn't look good for SPX500USDHi traders, The price action of SPX500USD last week went exactly as what I've said in my outlook. I said we could see a (corrective) upmove to the higher Weekly FVG. It depends if the upmove is corrective or impulsive what would be the move after that. But also fundamentally we could see more longer term downside for this pair. Price went corrective up, rejected from the Weekly FVG higher and dropped! So next week we could see more downside for this pair. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade shorts. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by EduwaveTrading
S&P500 Huge retest of former Channel Down.S&P500 / US500 took a big hit today following the higher than expected PCE, causing a price rejection on the 4hour MA50. So far however the drop stopped exactly at the top of the former Channel Down of February-March. With the 4hour RSI on the same level as March 10th, if this level holds, it will be a huge retest buy signal and will start a new bullish wave. Based on this, we'd expect the 1day MA50 to be targeted at 5,850. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TheCryptagon
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 5830.Colleagues, the previous forecast is not canceled, but I decided to update it a bit in the form of a new forecast. I have set the target a little closer, so that I don't have to wait too long. I believe that the price will continue its upward movement and will reach the area of 5830. It is quite possible that the price will correct to the area of 5597, completing the wave “2” of small order. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
18
If SPX Was to Make a Slow Topping PatternI've been super bearish indices for a while but heading into the 5000 area in SPX I am becoming increasingly bullish. I think in the extremely bearish setup we bounce to 5500 and if we are actually making a big major top, then it's viable we swipe at the highs a few times. Liquidity ... and all that. This could potentially be a long time of choppy action around the topping zone. If that's going to happen there's epic bear trades coming in the future but to prevent from becoming exhausted as a bear before they happened - you'd be wanting to bank in the rally. Have plans to pick up an assortment of bets on a new high being made within 3 months somewhere a little under 5100. And picking p spot longs at some point which I can trail stops on and wait to see if the bull trap levels fail. I do think at the very least the min risk bears have into 5000 is a 10% bull trap. I'd be very careful as a bear now.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by holeyprofit
SPX - Melt up & Crash series [3]Blue parallel channel held perfectly while many were bearish! Now has a date with the top rail, maybe at 2.618 intersection who knows... Expanding megaphone (green) had false breakdown, if it breaks back in and upwards = huge bullish move. So much room on the RSI to run with huge positive divergence. Not financial advice. Amazes me how long these patterns take to form, for them to be concrete and actionable. Hopefully this series is the last one I post. Realistically just waiting for this low to be set. Think this could be it.
SP:SPXLong
by mypostsareNotFinancialAdvice
SPX On Verge Of A Bearish Decent - Weekly ViewThe S&P 500 is pointing at a long descent downwards based upon simple technical analysis. To further bolster our projection of the market it is no secret the recent trade wars are going to have a major negative impact upon the US & world economy for obvious reasons. With this in mind we can paint a clear picture of where price action is going to head. The question remains where do we enter short? As we can see in our chart we have broke the current upwards bullish weekly trend line #2. Price action has quickly took a swing downwards to our second trend line #1. In short trend lines simply put are the bottom lows of a bullish market. We can clearly define these trend lines over a long period of time where price action has risen, declined, and then continued its current trend upwards. By marking three bottom or more bottoms lows in a bullish market we can project bottom prices of where price action should never cross below. So what happens when price crosses below these said trend lines? Easy, price action will decrease. This is the case on our chart viewing for trend #2. As for where price action will continue downwards and stop we can simply view the past history of the market to determine this. Viewing trend line #1 we can see this was the bottom start of the bullish market was 2023 Oct on the weekly chart. Price action has increased aprox. 48 percent with no more than a 8.5 percent in the summer of 2024. That is until our King Donny Trump entered office. From the top of last peak in this bullish cycle SPX has fallen roughly 6.5 percent. Price has clearly broken trend line #2 and is now testing the resistance of price at trend line #1. If price shall break the trend line #2 we will easily fall into our support zone #1. Support zones are nothing more than where price action consolidated sideways for a period of time. These zones are like magnets. Price almost always 'pulls' towards these zones as it is a proven history of the market resistance and support. The earning moving average(EMA) of the SPX is even more concerning. The red(10 day), blue(21 day), yellow(50day) are the thin lines just below the candles in the chart. The EMA is exactly what it sounds like. The past earning moving average over the past 'x' amount of days. Viewing the EMA data allows you see if the price average is above, on par, or below 'x' amount of past days. This is very important key metric to determine the average market price over a period of time as you can imagine. Even more so important is when price declines below the EMA line. Price going below a 50, 100, or 200 day moving average are levels we want to watch. Currently price action has bounced right off the 50 day EMA. No surprise as this is a very important resistance level day traders will buy only to sell off shortly after. Crossing below the 50 day(yellow line) is known as the 'death cross' for a reason. If price crosses below it we can certainly count on a decline in price action into support zone #1 with easy.
SP:SPXShort
by remarkableCake99061
3
SPX next 5 years outlookIn this chart I show my SPX long term view from covid recovery to about 2030. SPX is moving in a big rising wedge, I think that on the long term prospective we're still in the 3rd bullish wave targeting 6440 area. From there I see a retracement (4th wave) to 4800 area before last bullish 5th wave to 7400 area. From 7440 I see a sharp bearish retracement , the breaking of rising wedge will lead spx to target 4200 area. On the medium term I think that we've to test 3320 area before targeting 6440 (completion of 3rd wave), but on the short term I see a retracement to retest 6000 area before dump to 3320.
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by mpd
Trade War PerspectiveSure, tune in to your favorite youtube finance doomer or the news, and it will sound like the end of the world has arrived. I personally feel like this tariff crisis is cover to air out all the dirty laundry that's been hidden the last few years. The AI bubble, the stimmy repayment, the imaginary gold, the "forgot how to grow economy" (credit that last one to Eurodollar University), etc etc. Take a look at this chart. If this is "the end" we have BARELY begun the descent. These types of corrections happen routinely. The point is, don't panic. STICK TO YOUR STRATEGY and don't get emotional. Good luck out there. Don't get flushed down the tariff toilet.
SP:SPX
by MonsterStockPicks
Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy?Introduction The S&P 500 recently faced a sharp decline, with many rushing to blame renewed trade war tensions under President Trump's second term. But is this downturn truly a political reaction — or was it already baked into the market’s DNA? A deeper dive using Elliott Wave Theory suggests something far more structural: the recent fall is part of a broader wave pattern, and the real crash hasn’t even begun. A Look Back: How the Market Reacted to Tariffs in Trump's First Term During Trump’s first presidency: First Tariff Hike caused an 11.77% drop Second Tariff Hike led to an 8.35% decline China’s reaction triggered a 20% fall Despite this turbulence, the market rebounded sharply, climbing 44% post-trade war — forming a textbook Wave 5 extension. This historical context is crucial: event-based declines often align with technical wave structures, not random panic. Why the Market Fell Now (and Not Earlier) Trump’s second term victory wasn’t unexpected. Neither was his return to tariff-heavy policies. So why didn’t the market react earlier? 📉 Because this isn’t about tariffs. It’s about Wave 4. The current market downturn coincides with the natural Wave 4 correction of a multi-decade Elliott Wave cycle. This phase is often sharp and emotional — yet incomplete. The final Wave 5 rally is still ahead, possibly pushing the index to new highs above 7,000. The Calm Before the Storm: What Comes After Wave 5 Following the euphoric rally of Wave 5, the market is expected to face a massive correction — Wave II — projected to be as severe as the 2008-09 financial crisis, if not worse. Potential triggers: Overleveraged markets Global debt bubbles Geopolitical instability Inflation shockwaves AI and tech overvaluation Conclusion: Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy? This wave analysis raises the question: will Trump’s second term be remembered for a market rally or a devastating crash? The answer may be both. ✅ Short-term triumph via Wave 5 ⚠️ Long-term tragedy via Wave II The smart investor will ride the wave — but also prepare for the fall. Key Takeaways: Current decline = Wave 4, not the final crash Wave 5 (upside) may still take S&P to new highs Post-Wave 5 = Major correction, possibly like 2008 Trump’s tariffs are catalysts, but not the root cause Technical patterns > political events in long-term moves
SP:SPX
by BISHNU_P_BASYAL
SPX to find sellers at previous resistance?SPX500USD - 24h expiry Daily signals are bearish. Short term bias has turned negative. Previous resistance located at 5700. 20 1day EMA is at 5699.8. 5705.4 has been pivotal. We look to Sell at 5699.5 (stop at 5743.5) Our profit targets will be 5585.5 and 5565.5 Resistance: 5630.0 / 5658.9 / 5700.0 Support: 5602.4 / 5564.3 / 5495.3 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA