Get started
S&P 500 Index - Standard & Poors 500 (SPX)S&P 500 Index - Standard & Poors 500 (SPX)S&P 500 Index - Standard & Poors 500 (SPX)

S&P 500 Index - Standard & Poors 500 (SPX)

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Seasonals

SPXM trade ideas

$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets For Today & Tomorrow We are above the 50 day moving average the one hour to under moving average and 35 EMA on the 30 minute timeframe and then we have that up gap from last Friday all on the downside of the trading range. We are currently at a resistance level here, and above it we have another one at 6045 (top of the implied move) which was a support in December before we broke down and then it turned into a resistance. We have an island gap underneath the 30 minute tun removing average above the four hour to removing average and just remember they always do fill. It doesn’t have to be this week but it definitely could be so if you’re bar that might be a good place to look to take profits if we do go down. I will dive much more deeply into these levels on tonight's video, but for now we at least have them. Things to Watch this Week: Earnings Reports: Major companies like Netflix (NFLX), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Procter & Gamble (PG), United Airlines (UAL), General Electric (GE), Alaska Air (ALK), American Airlines (AAL), CSX Corporation (CSX), Verizon (VZ), HCA Healthcare (HCA), and American Express (AXP) are set to release their earnings. These reports can significantly influence market sentiment and stock prices. Manufacturing PMI: The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing will provide insight into the health of the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 suggests contraction. This data can influence expectations about economic growth and interest rates. Services PMI: Similarly, the Services PMI will give an overview of the service sector's performance. Given the service sector's substantial contribution to the economy, this data is critical for understanding overall economic trends. Home Sales: Data on existing home sales can shed light on consumer confidence and spending in the housing market, which is a major component of economic activity. Changes in home sales can signal shifts in economic health. Jobless Claims: Weekly initial jobless claims numbers are a pulse check on the labor market. Rising claims might indicate economic slowdown, while falling claims suggest job growth and economic strength. Market Volatility: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has been noted to be fluctuating, which might continue this week. Monitoring the VIX can help assess market fear or complacency. Interest Rate Sensitivity: With the Federal Reserve’s actions on interest rates being a focal point, any indication of future policy direction from Fed officials' speeches or economic data releases could sway markets. Look for comments from Fed members or economic reports that might hint at rate adjustments. Sector Performance: Particularly, keep an eye on sectors like Technology (with companies like Nvidia potentially leading AI trends), Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary, which have shown movements or are expected to with upcoming earnings. Global Economic Indicators: International developments, especially from major economies like China or the Eurozone, can impact U.S. markets due to globalization. Look for news on global manufacturing, services, or policy changes that could affect investor sentiment. Geopolitical Events: Although not directly mentioned in recent market summaries, geopolitical tensions or developments, like trade negotiations or conflicts, can influence markets. Keep an ear out for any significant international news that might ripple through financial markets.
SP:SPX
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
US500 1. Weekly Timeframe 1. Ascending Parallel Channel & Middle Line • The US 500 has been moving in a broad rising channel. Respect for the midline (the “median” of that parallel channel) can indicate strong internal structure to the uptrend. • Price repeatedly holding near or above the 20 EMA on the weekly bolsters the view that buyers are active on dips. 2. Order Blocks • The 5800 area (per your chart scaling) served as a weekly order block where price reacted sharply upward, underlining that region as a significant support/demand zone. 3. Ichimoku • A bullish Ichimoku profile on the weekly suggests the higher timeframe trend remains up. Cloud support has not been violated. 4. Momentum & Capital Flows • RSI in the 60+ zone and a MACD that, while it’s in a “bearish waning” phase, is not strongly diverging from price yet. • CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) staying above zero indicates consistent capital inflows, reinforcing a buy-the-dips sentiment on the weekly timeframe. Weekly Summary The weekly trend remains structurally bullish, with dips finding support both at EMAs and near identified order blocks. Momentum is not overheated. Any near-term pullback would likely remain within the broader bullish framework unless it severely violates key structure or the 20/50 weekly EMAs. 2. Daily Timeframe 1. Channel Structures • You mentioned an ascending channel from the September low that was broken to the downside during the recent consolidation. Since that channel is now invalid, it’s prudent to monitor price action to see how a new channel or range might form. • The invalidation of a channel can simply mean the market has shifted into a different angle of attack—a new channel or wedge may emerge. 2. EMAs & Bollinger Bands • Despite the consolidation, the daily EMAs (particularly the 50 and 100) remain upward sloping, which is a hallmark of an intact bullish trend on a medium-term basis. • Multiple wicks into the 100 EMA, followed by strong closes back above shorter EMAs, highlight that area as reliable dynamic support. • Hovering in the upper Bollinger band region often correlates with bullish continuation, though it can also precede a near-term pullback if price spends too long “riding the band.” 3. Ichimoku • Price briefly dipped below the Cloud but has now pushed back inside it. Generally, a close back above the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily would be more definitive proof of renewed bullish momentum, so staying watchful here makes sense. 4. Daily Order Blocks • You mention the 5842 level and the possibility that the market “closed below” it but then reversed after tagging the 100 EMA. That underscores that not every technical zone breaks price conclusively; strong dynamic support (EMAs) and overall liquidity hunts can overshadow a single daily close below an order block. 5. Momentum Indicators • RSI’s move back over 50 is a bullish sign of momentum improvement, and the MACD turning positive again on the daily further underpins that reading. • However, your logic that a short push higher could trigger a contrarian fade (especially if the put-call ratio is extremely low) is consistent with typical overbought or euphoric conditions. Daily Summary Still leaning bullish with strong evidence of higher lows and reliable EMA bounces. A near-term pullback could be triggered by an overextension or liquidity sweep. However, dips may be limited or quickly bid up given that daily momentum has reasserted itself to the upside. 3. Four-Hour & Lower Timeframes 1. Recent Bearish Structure / Falling Triangle • You noted that price broke out of a near-term bearish pattern (descending wedge/triangle). • The typical post-breakout playbook suggests a retest is likely—this could coincide with the broad idea of not chasing the market. Let it come back, see if a retest holds, and then it’s a safer entry. 2. Order Blocks & Overextension • The next 4H order block (e.g., ~6056) may be a target on a momentum spurt. If that run materializes quickly, it can “tap” that level and then retrace. • On the 4H RSI or Stochastics, any overextension into 70-80 zone often leads to a temporary pause. The presence of a contrarian put-call ratio environment lends further credence to expecting a short-term fade. 3. One-Hour Minor Trendline • Price is riding a minor uptrend line. Intra-day, these lines can break quickly, sometimes triggering algorithmic or retail stops. You anticipate that break, a sell-off that then loses momentum (bearish momentum wanes), and the broader uptrend resumes. That is a classic scenario for trading the “fake breakdown” or retest to see if the higher-timeframe bullish structure is truly intact. Intraday Summary The short-term structure has turned positive after the recent breakout. However, be prepared for a retest or a quick liquidity sweep that fakes out short-term traders before resuming the uptrend. Patience is key; avoid FOMO entries. 4. Seasonality & Macro Considerations 1. January Barometer • The adage goes: “As goes January, so goes the year.” While not a guaranteed prophecy, a strong January often sets a bullish tone for the year. • We’re seeing typical January volatility. The fact it’s net positive so far supports an overall bullish tilt for 2025 (in your chart’s labeling). 2. Put-Call Ratio • A low (or persistently dropping) put-call ratio can be a contrarian indicator. Extreme complacency in the options market sometimes precedes short-term pullbacks, even if the bigger trend remains bullish. 3. Economic Backdrop & Earnings • While you haven’t delved deeply into fundamentals or macro, remember that news flow (earnings, rate expectations, etc.) can disrupt purely technical plays. • If the fundamental backdrop remains supportive, it can help keep corrections shallow. Overall Synthesis analysis points to a medium- to long-term uptrend that is intact (weekly and daily) while acknowledging a near-term risk of an overextension or liquidity sweep (4H and below). The best general approach to avoid FOMO is: 1. Stay Aligned with the Higher Trend • The weekly/daily structure and indicators (EMAs, RSI, MACD) lean bullish, so buying dips is generally more favorable than trying to short. 2. Wait for a Retest or Waning Bearish Momentum on Lower Timeframes • Confirmation after a minor pullback, retest of a broken trendline, or a known support (like the 4H or 1H EMAs, Ichimoku Cloud bottom, or an order block) is more reliable than chasing. 3. Manage Risk • Even if everything looks bullish, the market can and will surprise. Ensure stop-losses are strategically placed below a key structural level (e.g., below the 100 EMA on daily or a prior pivot low). 4. Seasonality Provides a Tailwind • A positive January frequently begets further strength in equities. However, remain mindful that short-term bouts of volatility are common in any bullish trend. technical picture: it’s a bullish environment on higher timeframes, with only short-term signals hinting at a possible pullback. The key is patience—focus on a tactical entry when (or if) the market dips rather than FOMO buying into the overextension. If no dip comes and it runs higher, wait for the next consolidation pattern to form and enter on that next, higher low.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by EliteMarketAnalysis
4-hr US500: Setting up for a 100 Point JumpAfter a 300-point correction from its December highs, the SP500 appears to be rebounding as bulls regain control. This recovery is supported by positive economic data, including strong NFP numbers, low unemployment, and CPI readings meeting expectations—all favorable for stocks. Additionally, the earnings season began yesterday with exceptional results from the financial sector, providing further momentum. Technically, the index is breaking above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. If the price closes above the critical 5,980 level, it could signal a trend reversal rather than just a correction. A break above this level may trigger more buying, with upward momentum potentially pushing the price toward forming a Double Top chart pattern at 6,090. This target represents a potential 100-point profit for buyers aiming to capitalize on the move. The combination of strong fundamentals and technical indicators suggests a favorable outlook, but sustained momentum will be key for bulls to maintain control and achieve these higher levels.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by Trendsharks
US Inflation: A Break in Core Trends Sparks Market OptimismThe December US inflation data presented a mixed picture, but with a nuance that markets have chosen to interpret optimistically. After a prior week where robust economic data cooled expectations for rate cuts in 2025, the newly released figures offer a welcome relief. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.9% year-over-year, in line with market expectations, marking its third consecutive increase since September. However, the real surprise came from the core measure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Contrary to expectations of stability, the annual core metric fell to 3.2%. This unexpected decline has infused optimism into markets, creating a "glass half full" sentiment. This key data, alongside the Producer Price Index (PPI) published the previous day, has triggered a positive movement in financial markets. US equities rose midweek, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.6%. Meanwhile, Treasury yields fell, and the US dollar depreciated. This market reaction suggests that investors see these numbers as an indication that inflationary pressures might be easing, potentially influencing future decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The unexpected drop in core inflation is an encouraging sign, suggesting inflationary pressures could be diminishing faster than anticipated. Coupled with a moderated PPI, it bolsters the narrative that the Fed may have room to adopt a more accommodative stance in its monetary policy moving forward. It is worth noting that the equity rally has also been driven by strong corporate earnings, particularly in the banking sector. Results from financial giants like JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs, which exceeded market expectations, have helped boost investor confidence. While headline inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, the moderation in the core measure offers a glimmer of hope. Markets are now increasingly anticipating the possibility of the Fed resuming rate cuts in the second half of 2025, although the resilient labor market, with 256,000 new jobs created in December, remains a key consideration. While it’s premature to declare victory, today’s data provides a more optimistic perspective on the inflation trajectory. It is crucial to closely monitor economic data and market reactions as the inflation situation evolves, particularly under the leadership of the new Donald Trump 2.0 administration.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
[Education] The Truth About Why You Still Can't Manage You know you should risk only 1% per trade. You understand the math behind proper position sizing. You’ve read all the books about risk management. Yet somehow, you still find yourself breaking these rules “just this once.” I get it. I’ve been there. Even after blowing multiple accounts and losing over $10,000, I still struggled with risk management. Not because I didn’t understand it, but because understanding isn’t enough. Let me share something embarrassing. Last year, I was managing a $200,000 funded account. I had my risk management rules clearly written down. Never risk more than 1%. Never hold through high-impact news. Never average down on losing trades. Then one day, I saw what looked like the perfect setup. Everything aligned. Multiple timeframe confluence, key level, perfect structure. Instead of my usual 1% risk, I convinced myself this trade deserved 3%. After all, with my experience and track record, surely I could handle larger position sizes now? That one decision wiped out two months of profits in 15 minutes. The Psychology Behind Our Self-Sabotage Here’s what makes risk management so tricky. We can intellectually understand its importance while emotionally rejecting it. It’s like knowing exactly how many calories are in a chocolate cake but eating it anyway. The problem isn’t knowledge. When you’re trading a $10,000 account and risking 1% per trade, you’re only risking $100. Even with a 2R winner, that’s just $200 profit. It’s just a day’s worth of salary. Proper risk management feels like you’re making slow progress. When you’re scrolling through social media. you see other traders posting insane gains. Your friend tells you that he turned $1,000 into $10,000 in a week trading crypto. Your mind knows these are likely fake or cherry-picked results, but your emotional mind starts whispering: “Maybe just this once…” The Hidden Cost of “Special” Trades We all have them. Those trades that feel different. The setup looks so perfect that our normal risk management rules seem too conservative. We tell ourselves this is a “special situation” that deserves special treatment. I learned this lesson the hard way with prop firm challenges. I would be up 6% on a challenge, nearly at the profit target. Then I’d see a “perfect setup” and increase my risk to “speed things up.” Almost every time, these “special” trades would end up failing the challenge. What’s worse, even when these larger positions worked out, they reinforced bad habits. Each successful oversized trade became ammunition for my brain to justify breaking rules in the future. The Compound Effect of Risk Management Violations The real danger isn’t just the immediate loss from one oversized trade. It’s the psychological damage that comes from breaking your own rules. Each time you violate your risk management rules and survive, you reinforce the behavior. This is even worse when you violate your rules and profit from the market. You will think that you’re invincible. Think about your last few trades. How many times did you do these? Move your stop loss to “give the trade room”? Add to a losing position because the price looked “even better”? Increase your position size because you were sure about the setup? Each of these decisions might seem small at the moment. But they create a compound effect that eventually leads to huge losses. The Professional’s Reality Want to know what real professional trading looks like? It’s mind-numbingly systematic. I now manage multiple six-figure funded accounts, and my risk management is completely automated. Before each trading day, I calculate my maximum position size based on 1% risk. I set up my position calculator with my account size. I write down my maximum loss for the day. During trading, I input my stop loss distance into my calculator. I take the position size it gives me. No exceptions I set my orders and walk away This isn’t exciting. It’s not flexible. It doesn’t allow for “special situations.” But it works. Building Systems Instead of Relying on Discipline The solution to risk management isn’t more knowledge or better discipline. It’s building systems that make it impossible to break your rules. After losing enough money, I finally created a system that works: First, I removed the trading app from my phone. This prevents me from making unnecessary trades during my non-trading hours. It is also difficult to trade using a phone as I do not have the tools needed for my analysis. Second, I use a position size calculator. It automatically calculates my maximum position size based on stop loss distance with my account size. Third, I track every risk management violation in a journal. This forces me to confront my mistakes instead of ignoring them. The Reality of Recovery Let’s talk about something most traders don’t want to face. The mathematics of recovery. A 20% loss requires a 25% gain to break even A 30% loss requires a 43% gain to break even A 50% loss requires a 100% gain to break even But knowing these numbers isn’t enough. You need to experience first hand the pain of trying to recover from a large drawdown. Only then, will you truly understand why risk management matters. I’m sure you have experienced it one way or another. Wins and losses are not made equally. I remember sitting at my desk, staring at a 40% drawdown in my account. I was entering all sorts of entries on my entry time frame, without considering the context of the higher time frames. I needed a 67% return just to break even. The feeling of wanting to break even led me to take even bigger risks, trying to recover faster. Instead, I dug myself into an even deeper hole and eventually lost my account. The Path to Consistent Risk Management The hardest part about proper risk management isn’t understanding what to do. It’s being satisfied with the results when you do it correctly. When you’re risking 1% per trade, a good month might only yield 5–10% returns. This feels painfully slow compared to the potential returns of larger position sizes. But here’s what I’ve learned: those “slow” months compound into significant returns over time, while aggressive trading eventually leads to blown accounts or even giving up on trading forever. Taking Action: Building Your Risk Management Framework I know it’s not easy to adhere to your risk management rules. You know this skill is essential for your growth in your trading career. If you’re still struggling with risk management, here’s what you need to do: First, accept that your current approach isn’t working. If you’re consistently breaking your rules, you need a complete system overhaul, not just better discipline. Second, automate everything you can. Use position calculators, set up your orders in advance, remove the ability to trade from your phone. Third, create accountability. Share your trades with a mentor or trading community before entering them. Make it embarrassing to break your rules. The Choice Ahead You already know proper risk management is crucial. The question is: Are you ready to build systems that force you to trade properly? This means accepting that: Your returns might look “small” compared to aggressive traders. You’ll have to watch others take risks you “know” would work. Your account will grow slower than you’d like. Your trading will become boring and systematic Want to learn how to build these systems and finally master risk management? My newsletter focuses on creating frameworks that make proper risk management automatic. No relying on discipline, no room for “special” trades, just systematic execution. The market doesn’t care about your knowledge. It only cares about your actions.
SP:SPX
by Keeleytwj
S&P 500: Levels That Could Shape the MarketThe S&P 500 is facing its first real test of 2025 as robust economic data and shifting Federal Reserve expectations create turbulence. Let’s take a look at the fundamental factors behind the pullback, along with the sector dynamics, and the key technical levels in play. Why Is the Market Wobbling? Last week’s payroll report delivered a surprise, with 256,000 jobs added in December, smashing expectations. This has thrown doubt on the prospect of multiple interest rate cuts in 2025. Swaps markets now predict just one quarter-point cut this year, with some analysts suggesting the easing cycle might already be over. The result? Treasury yields have climbed to 4.8%, their highest since late 2023. Historically, yields nearing 5% have triggered corrections of around 10%. Meanwhile, the dollar index has surged to its strongest level since November 2022, adding pressure on exports and multinational earnings. Even tech heavyweights like Nvidia, Apple, and Meta have felt the strain as investors reassess risk. Winners and Losers: Sector Trends Sector performance over the past month has been a mixed bag. Energy has been the standout, up 2.40%, helped by resilient oil prices and geopolitical factors. Technology has managed to tread water, but the rest of the market paints a different picture: • Real Estate: -7.24% • Consumer Staples: -5.71% • Consumer Discretionary: -5.46% • Materials: -4.75% • Financials: -4.44% These figures underscore growing caution, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors like Real Estate and Consumer Staples. Key Levels to Watch Since hitting new highs in early December, the S&P 500 has been in mean reversion mode. A descending channel, formed by lower swing highs and lows, has taken the index below its 50-day moving average, reflecting waning momentum. • Support Levels The 5,700-5,670 support zone is significant, featuring a cluster of historic swing highs and lows from July, August, October, and November 2024. Below this, the upward-sloping 200-day moving average serves as a pivotal line in the sand, linked to the index’s long-term bullish trend. • Resistance Levels The top of the descending channel marks the first major resistance. Beyond that, the December trend highs are the next big challenge for the bulls. S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by Capitalcom
Trump Returns to the White House: Tariffs EyedToday’s inauguration is undoubtedly a big event for traders, analysts, and the global economy. Everyone is watching. Let’s be frank: regardless of your opinion of Donald Trump or his proposed policies, his Presidential election win over Democrat candidate Kamala Harris on 5 November 2024 was nothing short of remarkable. It was a sweeping victory, and Trump returns to the White House today. Trump’s inauguration is expected to begin at 5:00 pm GMT (midday EST) and marks the start of his second term in office. Robust Economy Provides ‘Tariff’ Legroom for Trump While tariffs are undoubtedly inbound, it is unclear what plans Trump will pursue and when he will implement these strategies. Investors are concerned that imposing tariffs could stoke inflation and hinder consumption (and consequently put the brakes on economic growth). According to the latest data (December 2024), we have seen an uptick in US inflation. Year-on-year (YY), CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index) rose for a third consecutive month to 2.9%, PPI inflation (Producer Price Index) also increased for a third straight month to 3.3%, and the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) primary measure of inflation, the PCE Index (Personal Consumption Expenditures), is hovering just north of the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target at 2.4% (for November 2024). This, coupled with real US GDP (Gross Domestic Product) running at an annualised rate of 3.1% in Q3 24 and jobs data showing that the US economy added 256,000 new payrolls in December 2024, reveals Trump has legroom (some ‘cover’ if you will) to impose tariffs early on in his tenure. Trump Tariff ‘Threats’ So Far Speculation regarding the possibility of as many as 100 executive orders being signed today has been circulating the wires. Plenty of ambiguity is unquestionably present heading into today’s event, and the market dislikes uncertainty. Concerning tariff ‘plans’, Trump has floated several possible approaches, including 100% tariffs against BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) unless their governments commit to the US dollar (USD), as well as tariff threats against Canada, China, and Mexico. Trump voiced intentions of introducing 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico and adding an additional 10% tariff on goods from China. What Will I Be Watching Today? Today, I will primarily be looking for any direction on tariffs, particularly concerning Canada, Mexico, and China. Let’s assume Trump follows through on his threats to Canada and Mexico. A 25% tariff (or more) applied on goods from Canada and Mexico will prompt upside in currency pairs like the USD/CAD (US dollar versus the Canadian dollar) and USD/MXN (US dollar versus the Mexican peso) – for those who monitor implied volatility, check out USD/CAD; we are at levels not seen since early 2023! A 25% tariff on the aforesaid countries will also likely trigger a bid in the US Dollar Index and absorb offers around major resistance at 109.33. In contrast, major US equity indexes are expected to take a hit in this scenario. Another observation I feel needs some consideration is the USD positioning heading into this event. The USD is particularly stretched to the upside for those who monitor COT data (Commitment of Traders report). However, although this may be the case, I still expect USD outperformance on the back of 25% tariffs. Nevertheless, were Trump to pursue a lower tariff rate for Canada and Mexico or not to pursue tariffs at all, a considerable unwind in USD longs is possible, and downside in USD/CAD, USD/MXN, as well as the US Dollar Index, would be on the table (upside in US equities). A situation without tariffs would create considerable volatility and open the door to shorting opportunities in key currency pairs. Regarding China, if Trump were to follow through and impose a 10% additional tariff, this would likely send USD/CNY northbound (US dollar versus the Chinese yuan). Additionally, I expect the AUD/USD (Australian dollar versus the US dollar) and NZD/USD (New Zealand dollar versus the US dollar) pairs to trade lower, given their trading relationships with China. I also believe US and Chinese equity markets will sell off. Less than a 10% tariff or no tariffs on China would likely underpin AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and the noted equity markets (but weigh on the USD/CNY). Looking closely at the S&P 500, you will note that longer-term weekly action ended last Friday in the shape of a bullish engulfing formation, following a shallow correction from all-time highs of 6,099. This, together with the clear-cut uptrend and daily price climbing above its 50-day simple moving average at 5,967 (and a lack of obvious daily resistance), places bulls in a favourable position to challenge all-time highs, technically speaking. Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
SP:SPXLong
by FPMarkets
SPX MegaphoneHere's a one month chart for SPX. We have a giant megaphone that started at a peak near the beginning of 1973 and the bottom in 1974. This will obviously take a while to play out, but I truly believe the black swan event and major crash I've been warning about will happen very soon. 2025 will be the beginning of a time of great tribulations for all of us on Earth, but I do believe there will be a light at the end of the tunnel and there will be a generational wealth building opportunity eventually, probably around 2030ish. I do not want to be a permabear and fear monger. I have seriously never said anything like this in my life and I won't ever again because this is it. We are living through a time that will be talked about and studied for centuries, I truly believe that with every fiber of my being. I began posting my thoughts and analysis in early 2024 and honestly the whole reason why I did that is because I felt like i knew we were about to have a melt up/blow off top for the ages followed by a devastating crash and I wanted people to know about it and the reasons why it happened. It's been a wild ride and we have witnessed a historic rally, but the end is near. The crash will be every bit as historic as the recent rally, it will be worse than 1929. We will have full scale World War 3, pandemics, currency collapses, and everything in between. This is my final warning, things are about to get very weird and it's time for me to take a step back and focus on things that are more important to my family and I. Money is not the answer to your problems. I'm not sure if I made the right decision or not by attempting to teach people what I know about the stock market. If you've been following me, you have probably realized that I have very strong opinions about how and why stock prices move the way they do. This is a very difficult game and in the end it all comes down to psychology. No matter what I do or say, I'm not sure I can actually help anyone because it is very difficult, even if you know what is going to happen, you can still get completely destroyed. I'm starting to feel like it's not something I should promote. I just felt strongly that I had a duty to talk about this because I know what I know and most people don't pay attention to this or have any real knowledge about markets. Those who try seem doomed to fail due to the amount of misinformation on social media and speculation about why prices move. Stock prices move because wholesale stock operators manipulate stock prices by accumulating stocks, pushing them to the highest point humanly possible and then they distribute. After they are done, stock prices begin to fall until they start accumulating again and once they are done, the whole process starts again. The fed plays a major role in this and runs the entire thing. They have finally started to pull liquidity after increasing the money supply by over 400% in just a few years, a completely insane thing to do. In December we finally saw a huge drop in liquidity and it's going to continue. Keep an eye on the M! and M2 money supply charts. Stock prices move because there are either more buyers than sellers or vice versa, that is all. People want to speculate about why and talk about various events they think will happen or because of what they think about the economy. This is a big fallacy that has plagued retail traders since the stock market was created. Wholesalers know what will happen before it happens, they know the news that's coming most of the time and if they don't, they still use it to generate enough volume that allows them to enter and exit positions, they could not do what they do without volume from retail. If we have a bull market, negative news is ignored and positive news is highlighted. In a bear market, negative news is highlighted and positive news is ignored. There is a reason why it costs $50k+ for just a few minutes of air time on CNBC. Inverse Cramer works because he is paid to say what he says, he says the opposite of the truth and so do the rest of the financial media outlets. 99% of retail traders are not profitable after 7 years of trading and 80% who try are finished within 2 years. It is this way by design. We all attempt to do it because we want financial freedom and to provide for our families. The problem is greed takes over and he who hastens to be rich will be punished, that is a certainty just as much as death and taxes are. I don't know the exact time or what the exact event will be and I have no idea when it bottoms either. I do have some ideas, but that's just speculation. Either way, I know it's coming. This chart and path is my best guess as to how this will play out and it may go even lower than the 2009 low, but at that point I don't think it really matters anyway. If you want my honest opinion (not financial advice), I think the best thing to do is to simply exit all long positions on US equities, buy gold and silver and forget about it. Focus on the important things in life instead, you will outperform almost everyone in the next 5 years if you do this. In the end, you have to do whatever you think is best and you cannot trade based on what someone else says. If you do that, you will have no idea how to manage the trade, what to expect, or how to manage emotions if it doesn't go as planned. You will lack the conviction necessary to make good decisions because you won't have any conviction if you just follow someone else and don't actually believe in the trade or know why you took the trade. Thank you for all the support, I appreciate it and I'm sorry if you have lost money due to any of my analysis. I was just trying to help... It is time to focus on what's important in life, it is too short to spend your whole life chasing the dragon of unlimited wealth, that is not the way. I wish you all the best, Godspeed.
SP:SPXShort
by AdvancedPlays
3
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 17, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the recent trading session, the S&P 500 attained our designated downside target of Mean Support at 5775, which initiated a robust rally. This rally enabled the index to reach our target of Mean Resistance at 5920 and advance further to the newly identified Mean Resistance at 6035. The market is currently exhibiting strong and consistent upward movement. The bullish trend appears poised to continue towards our subsequent target, the Outer Index Rally at 6123, which will be approached via Key Resistance at 6090. Following that, additional targets of 6233 and 6418 are also anticipated. However, it is essential to acknowledge that reaching the initial rally level and the subsequent targets will result in a price pullback. Such a pullback is expected to prepare the market for the next phase of the bullish trend.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
S&P Scenario 2.1.2025In this market, in order to consider some long setups, we need to hold the 6060 level or something around it, and since we didn't hold this support, we had a way to go short after the breakout. Now I see a scenario like this: the market should come for the sfp below the low as shown, or it will start to rise directly into the long, but as long as we are below the 6060 level, I'm considering a long setup. I would take that if the sfp below the low was met.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Sony97
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.17.2024🔮 📅 Fri Jan 17 ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Building Permits: 1.46M (prev: 1.49M) 💡 Market Insights: 📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: On a gap up, we will get pinned down by the weekly zone before dropping lower. 📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: People finally decided to be bullish after seeing yesterday's price action. Let’s bet against them first, then close it around 5925. 📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: We will likely get a small bounce and hold. #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SP:SPXShort
by PogChan
Short Sellers: Liquidity Providers or Market Disruptors?█ Understanding Short Sellers: Liquidity Providers or Market Disruptors? Short sellers often have a controversial reputation, viewed by many as market manipulators who profit from falling stock prices. However, recent research sheds light on an unexpected and valuable role they play: providing liquidity to the market, especially during critical moments like news releases. Let’s break down this concept in a way that’s approachable for everyone while maintaining the insights of the academic findings. █ What Is Short Selling? In simple terms, short selling is a trading strategy where an investor borrows shares of a stock, sells them, and hopes to buy them back later at a lower price to pocket the difference. While this might sound straightforward, it’s a high-risk activity because the potential losses are unlimited if the stock price rises instead of falling. For long-term investors, the goal is usually to buy strong companies that will grow over time, benefiting from compounding returns and supporting broader economic growth. On the other hand, short selling tends to attract risk-seekers who aim to profit from price declines. Unfortunately, many inexperienced short sellers get burned by the complexities of market dynamics, including the balance of supply and demand for liquidity. █ Why Is Short Selling Important? Despite the risks, short sellers are essential to the financial markets. They help correct overpriced stocks and bring balance to valuations, contributing to more accurate pricing. Moreover, they provide critical insights during times of market euphoria or uncertainty. One example of their importance is the role of short sellers during events like the “short squeezes” in GameStop or Volkswagen. These situations occur when a stock’s price skyrockets, often fueled by retail traders or unexpected news, forcing short sellers to buy back shares at higher prices. While dramatic, such events highlight the complex interaction between short selling and market liquidity. █ A Fresh Perspective: Short Sellers as Liquidity Providers Traditional thinking often casts short sellers as aggressive traders who demand liquidity—placing orders that consume existing bids or offers in the market. However, a recent study challenges this view, showing that some short sellers do the opposite: they provide liquidity. Using transaction-level data, the study reveals that informed short sellers strategically supply liquidity by posting and maintaining limit orders. These orders help stabilize markets, especially during volatile periods like news days. This behavior contrasts with the common perception of short sellers as disruptive forces, instead positioning them as contributors to market efficiency. █ Key Findings from the Research The research, titled Stealthy Shorts: Informed Liquidity Supply, presents several critical insights: ⚪ Liquidity-Supplying vs. Liquidity-Demanding Short Sales: Liquidity-supplying short sellers place limit orders, offering to sell shares at specific prices. Liquidity-demanding short sellers use market orders, which take the best available prices. The study found that liquidity-supplying short sales are more predictive of future stock returns than liquidity-demanding ones. ⚪ Predictive Power of Liquidity-Supplying Shorts: Stocks with high levels of liquidity-supplying short sales underperform those with low levels over a 21-day holding period. This pattern suggests that these short sellers have a long-term informational edge. ⚪ Impact on Price Discovery: By providing liquidity, these short sellers help narrow bid-ask spreads, making it easier for other investors to enter or exit positions at favorable prices. ⚪ Informed Trading: Liquidity-supplying short sellers often act on information not yet fully reflected in stock prices. For example, they are particularly active and accurate around news days when fresh information enters the market. █ Implications for Investors and Regulators The findings challenge regulators and market participants to rethink their views on short sellers. While short selling is often criticized for its potential to destabilize markets, this study highlights a more nuanced role: informed short sellers contribute to market liquidity and efficiency. For everyday investors, this means that short sellers aren’t just betting against companies but also helping ensure that stock prices reflect their true value over time. █ Takeaways for Beginners If you’re new to investing, here’s what you should know: Short selling is risky and generally not recommended for beginners. The potential for unlimited losses makes it a strategy better suited for experienced traders. Short sellers play a vital role in financial markets by helping correct mispricings and improving liquidity. Understanding the mechanics of liquidity supply and demand can provide valuable insights into how markets function. █ Final Thoughts This research highlights the dual role of short sellers, particularly the most informed ones, as both traders and market stabilizers. By offering liquidity and acting on long-lived information, these traders help create more efficient markets, benefiting everyone from retail investors to large institutions. As always, a deeper understanding of market dynamics can empower better investment decisions and help you navigate the complexities of the financial world with confidence. ----------------- Disclaimer This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only. The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
SP:SPXEducation
by Zeiierman
US500/SPX morning analysisTechnical analysis of US500/SPX. Three different counts, one bullish (green) and two bearish (yellow, red). Green count has primary double combo wave to complete the correction, bottom in at 5756.90. Yellow and red counts both have an expanded flat correction starting on 20 December and are projecting wave (c) to complete above 6039.6. Yellow count has the expanded flat as a wave ((B)), looking for ((C)) below 5500. Red count has top in, expanded flat as a wave ((2)), looking for wave ((3)) below 5500.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by discobiscuit