30 year logarithmic trend shows overvaluation30 year trend clearly shows overvaluation and a correction due.
SPXM trade ideas
spx yükseliş ihtimali yüksek satmayın !!!Many people interpreted this as a sell signal due to the sudden drop, but this is not a sell signal, it is an increase in voltitre. You can also see it on VIX and it is within expectations, the risk will be incredibly high, but what I will do is to add gradually (in large amounts).
It is not investment advice.
S&P 500 - What after 6010 – Key GDP Data in FocusS&P 500 (SPX500) Analysis – February 27, 2025
The S&P 500 has declined to 5937, as expected , after rejecting the 6010 pivot zone. Market sentiment remains mixed following Nvidia’s earnings, which were neither overly bullish nor bearish, while investors now shift focus to today’s GDP release:
If GDP comes in below 2.3%, a bullish reaction is likely.
A stronger-than-expected GDP could reinforce downside pressure on indices.
Technical Outlook
📉 Bearish Scenario:
As long as the price remains below 6010, the downtrend remains active, with the next key support at 5979 and 5937.
A 1H or 4H candle close below 5937 would accelerate the decline toward 5920.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
A break and 1H or 4H close above 6010 would indicate a bullish shift, targeting 6031.
Stability above 6031 would strengthen momentum toward 6055 and 6086.
⚠️ Market Impact:
GDP data will drive today’s market movement—watch for increased volatility.
Key Levels to Watch
🔸 Resistance: 6031 | 6068 | 6102
🔹 Pivot: 6010
🔻 Support: 5979 | 5952 | 5920
📉 Directional Bias: Bearish below 6010, but a confirmed break above 6010 could trigger a bullish shift.
S&P500 Index Goes 'Draconian', ahead of Roller Coaster ExplosionThe S&P 500's "roller coaster" behavior stems from its sensitivity to various economic, geopolitical, and market-specific factors that influence investor sentiment and corporate performance.
Economic Factors: Changes in interest rates, inflation, and Federal Reserve policies significantly impact the index. For example, rising interest rates can reduce corporate earnings and valuations, leading to market sell-offs. Conversely, expectations of rate cuts can boost optimism and drive rallies.
Investor Sentiment and Volatility: The S&P 500 is closely tied to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often called the "fear gauge." The VIX rises during market downturns as investors seek portfolio protection, amplifying price swings. This inverse correlation highlights how fear or optimism can drive sharp movements in the index.
Global Events: Geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, or pandemics can disrupt markets by creating uncertainty about future economic performance. Such events often lead to sudden spikes or drops in the S&P 500 as investors react to perceived risks.
Valuation Cycles: Overvaluation or bubbles in specific sectors can lead to corrections. For instance, high price-to-earnings ratios combined with slower economic growth can result in prolonged periods of stagnation or volatility.
These factors collectively create the "roller coaster" effect begun in the S&P 500.
// Life is like a roller coaster, as you don't know what's going to be thrown at you next, so all you can do is give us your best shot.
--
Best wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team 😎
S&P Retest of IMPORTANT support, The week ahead 03rd March '25 The S&P 500 (US500) index maintains a bullish bias within the broader long-term uptrend. However, recent price action suggests a period of consolidation following the retest of the all-time high on February 19, 2025. The market is currently at a critical juncture, with the 5918 level acting as a key support zone.
Bullish Scenario:
The 5918 level serves as a newly established support, aligning with the consolidation range and prior resistance.
A corrective pullback towards this level, followed by a bullish bounce, could confirm continued upside momentum.
Upside targets include:
6000 (50-day moving average)
6055 (20-day moving average)
6100 over the longer term
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed loss of 5918 support with a daily close below this level would invalidate the bullish outlook.
This could trigger a deeper retracement, exposing the following downside levels:
5854 (next key support)
5800, with a potential extension to 5777 if selling pressure accelerates
Market Outlook:
The 5918 level remains pivotal—holding above this support sustains the bullish bias, while a decisive break below it signals potential downside continuation. Traders should closely monitor price action and volume around this key level to assess the market’s next move.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
S&P 500: Short-Term Rebound Before a Deeper Drop?Expecting a rebound for the SP500 from current levels until mid-March (around the 13th). We anticipate a strong sell-off after that, lasting until late March or early April, potentially bottoming between $5,100 and $5,400. Afterward, a massive bottom followed by a strong upward move for both the S&P 500 and the broader U.S. stock market, including crypto.
SPX and PCE. So when is it time to short?The crowd is betting on a drop at the worst possible time. The blue line represents the SPX, the red line represents the put buys. Will the price bounce off the 200-day moving average or are we headed lower? We'll find out in this week's data dump.
Stay calm.
US500- A buy setup coming upHello,
A nice correction happening on this pair US500. The S&P 500 Index, also known as the Standard & Poor’s 500 or the US500, is an American stock market index that tracks the performance of the top 500 companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market or the New York Stock Exchange. It is a free-floating index covering US firms with the largest market capitalization and book value, representing approximately 80 per cent of the total value of the country’s equity market.
I expect a smaller correction on the US500 lower timeframe before a continuation to the upside. Look for entries on lower timeframes with a target at the top. Stop loss below the bottom. Zero crossover on the MACD to be used as confirmation as well.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Good luck.
SPX similaritiesshowing a similar pattern of volatility and technical recession patterns are showing. The difference between this and the 2022 is the yields have uninverted on the yield curve. This might lead to a real turn down if there is not a government to step in.
Will Trump’s Tariff Wars Bring the S&P’s Uptrend to an End?Donald Trump’s latest round of tariffs has rattled global markets, reviving memories of the trade wars that defined his first term. With China, Canada, and Mexico retaliating in kind, the fear of an escalating economic conflict has sent stocks tumbling. But will this shake-up be enough to break the S&P 500’s long-term uptrend?
Trump’s New Tariff Wars
The sweeping trade measures target the US’s largest trade partners, imposing a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports, along with an additional 10% levy on Chinese goods. The White House has framed these moves as a response to fentanyl trafficking and border security concerns, but markets are treating them as a renewed assault on global trade.
China wasted no time in hitting back, slapping tariffs on US agricultural products and restricting exports of key biotech equipment. Canada, too, announced retaliatory measures, targeting $30 billion worth of US goods. The fallout was immediate—Wall Street suffered a sharp selloff, with the S&P 500 closing nearly 2% lower and the Nasdaq shedding 2.6%. Futures suggest European stocks will follow suit, while currency markets have seen a dip in the US dollar.
Is the S&P’s Uptrend Cracking?
The S&P 500’s relentless 2024 uptrend has struggled to extend into 2025. The index has now failed twice to break above the December highs, breaking last year’s pattern of higher swing highs. Instead, price action has settled into a range, with resistance forming at the December, January, and February swing highs, while support sits near the January lows—right at the bottom of the early-November election gap.
For swing traders, the key question is whether a bullish reversal will emerge at the lower end of this range. A strong bounce here could reinforce the current consolidation phase rather than signal a breakdown. Momentum traders, however, will be watching for a decisive break below the range, which could trigger panic selling and accelerate downside momentum.
From a long-term perspective, a single shakeout isn’t enough to derail a multi-year bull market. Even a break below the 200-day moving average—while significant for shorter-term trend followers—is unlikely to change the broader outlook for long-term investors. Trends of this magnitude take time and substantial effort to reverse.
S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
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2000 TP next collapse long term projection This how market cycle works once all stocks or mother of stock blow off top it tends to dropp this drop if history repeat it self it drop to 2000 area to find support
as per fibo retracement see chart areas to likely to trade
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for March 3rd
Alright, y’all… I am still sick and still dealing with the fatigue so I’m not going to write a whole lot but here are the levels.
You know what to do with them… lol
And we will go over it all tonight.
Don’t forget to hit the “Grab this Chart” button under this chart is you want to use it.
The stock market is not "Crashing"!I keep hearing people saying the stock market is crashing, a mild pullback is hardly a crash, we are not crashing, at least not yet, and maybe not for an extended period.
We use the S&P 500 because it is the best gauge of our markets with the most diverse representation of any of our indices.
A short history of the trend of our stock marker since 1992, correlated to presidencies.
1992-1999 Clinton: Stock market transitioned from fairly flat to a steady ascending path, we reduced our yearly deficit 6 years and had a budget surplus 2 years.
2000-2007 George Bush Jr: Descending or neutral trend most of the 8 years, we broke our 15 year ascending trend and started an overall descending trend. Deregulation led to the recession via predatory lending giving Walmart cashiers $300k loans, banks labeling bad debt as Grade A and banks leveraging 80% of all of Americans money on risky investments. 2008 was devastating for the US Stock market. Increased the yearly deficit 6 of 8 years.
2008-2015 Obama: Converted descending trend back to ascending trend and trended up in a tight ascending channel for the rest of his presidency, while implementing an array of regulations to prevent banks from doing this to America again. Decreased the yearly deficit 6 of 8 years.
2016-2020 Trump.v1: Maintained tight ascending channel and broke out of 15 year resistance, introduced a lot of lot of volatility and uncertainty, ultimately ended term with the market on the same trajectory it was when he took office. Diluted all US Dollars by 50%, 25% of the dilution was in 2020, coupled with $3T of quantitative easing in a single year (2020) and more than $2T direct stimulus, this dilution and excessive stimulus during a supply chain crunch directly conveyed into rising inflation the following 2 years. Increased our yearly deficit every year in office.
2021-2024 Biden: Broke out of ascending path to a much steeper and unsustainable ascending path, likely due to all the stimulus pumped into the market in 2020 & 2021. Hard pull back in 2021/2022 as Interest rates were increased to deter spending to reduce interest rates which skyrocketed to 10% in 2021 and was brought back down to just above 2% by 2024. We saw a volatile and sharp ascending channel form. At the end of his term, the market was at top of channel and well above all time highs with some of the most growth in the stock market ever witnessed anywhere on earth, ever, as seen in the charts, nearly doubling the S&P 500 in 4 years, the American economy was booming! Decreased the yearly deficit 2 of 4 years.
2025-2038 Trump.v2: Inherited the market at all time highs on the steepest incline we have witnessed to date, and at a point the market is expected to retract based on the charts. Currently it looks like the S&P could lose 15% or so of its value and still be in our ascending channel of 6 years now. As you can see recent pullbacks don’t even register on a weekly candle. Yes these tariffs and subsequent tariff wars will almost certainly wreak havoc on markets as we already see increase in unemployment, significant drops in consumer confidence, increase in debt ceiling, increase in debt through corporate tax breaks, uptick in inflation and uncertainty in policy but --- we still have a long way to fall before we can call this a bear market or a crash. If we do breakdown from the ascending channel, we can expect the S&P to eye around 3200, or nearly half of its current value. If this administration takes over the federal reserve, they can stimulate the economy to fight the decline and prolong the consequences but those measures will involve further dilution, further debt, further smoke in mirrors, further uncertainty and will likely ignite a ticking time bomb with even greater consequences then outlined here.
So in short, stop saying the market is crashing, it is not. But, be vigilant, there is a high probability of short term pullback and a long term crash based on the charts, historical precedence and current administrations activities.
S&P500, US GDP grew by 2.3% in Q4 The U.S. GDP grew by 2.3% annually in Q4, confirming the initial estimate and meeting market expectations. S&P (US500) index pair price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation after a retest of an all-time high on 19th Feb ‘25.
The key trading level is at the 5918 level, the consolidation price range and also the previous resistance is now a newly formed support zone. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 5918 level could target the upside resistance at 6018 followed by the 6060 and 6106 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 5918 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 5866 support level followed by 5827 and 5777.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SP 500 roadmap for the next few days The chart posted is the cash sp 500 based on lots and the Math we should hold the 6009 area if this is correct and then drop into some bad news in a 3 wave drop to .786 or a minor new low at 5886 Not sure yet .I am back in Cash 100 % just relaxing and watching the MATH best of trades the WAVETIMER
SPX Pop After Drop ?What's up people? I'll tell you what I think might go up !
I think I just might see enough accumulation going on to cause a pop. Yep, you read right.
A pop to 6045.5 area on SPX/USD if and IF price can get and hold above 5994.1 area.
That's around 48.3 points. Nice little pop after that big drop.
Get your bulls ready to display at the local fair.
Break above 5994.1 area
Target 48.3 points 6045.5
SP500 | Long | 3hrsThis technical analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Remember to always research and consult with a professional before making investment decisions. Good luck! 📈💼🚀
S&P 500 Elliott wave - shortNot many bulls on the SP500 anymore, I'm waiting for a correction and the possibility of another bounce upwards...
Market SnapshotI really wonder how 1600 Pennsylvania Ave is going to explain away what happens later this year and into the next
This is not good people...this is not good
Wave structure and TIMING sp 500 I am in cash 100 % I am waiting on what could be the final up leg from 3/23/2020 Best of trades Major and minor turn date 3/10 to 3/13th best of trades WAVETIMER
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 28, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the recent weekly trading session, the S&P 500 did not succeed in retesting the Mean Resistance level of 6082. Instead, the index experienced a notable decline, reaching the Mean Support level of 5939 and narrowly approaching the Key Support level of 5827.
Following this downturn, a significant rebound occurred, resulting in the establishment of a new Mean Support level at 5860. The index is now positioned to target the Mean Resistance level of 5967. Should the index initiate an upward movement from its current level and successfully surpass the critical Mean Resistance of 5967, it may continue to rise toward the Mean Resistance level of 6032, potentially reaching the Key Resistance level of 6143.
Conversely, if the index declines from its present position, it may create a retest pullback to revisit the Mean Support level of 5860 before resuming further upward momentum.
U.S. Indices on the Brink: A 10-15% Market Correction Ahead?At Vital Direction, our Elliott Wave, Fibonacci, and Gann analysis suggests that the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, and broader U.S. markets are approaching a major topping formation, setting the stage for a sharp 10-15% correction.
We anticipate this downturn to unfold between now and mid-April, with potential bottoming phases emerging either in early March or mid-April. From there, we expect a strong recovery, leading indices back to their all-time highs or near them by August to November 2025 before a massive reversal unfolds.
Investor Caution Advised!
Sentiment remains extremely bullish, but we urge traders to prepare for heightened volatility and downside risks in the short term. This could be a pivotal moment before the next major bullish phase!
