Bulls and Bears zone for 02-19-2025So far S&P 500 has been trading sideways this week.
Any test of yesterday's Close could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch : 6136 ---6138
Report to watch:
US: FOMC Minutes 2:00PM ET
SPXM trade ideas
S&P corrective pullback after bullish breakout to new ATHS&P (US500) index pair price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation after reaching the intraday all time high.
The key trading level is at 6080 level, the consolidation price range and also the previous resistance now newly formed support zone. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 6080 level could target the upside resistance at 6140 followed by the 6160 and 6200 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 6080 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 6030 support level followed by 6000.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Feb 19 SP:SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Feb 19
ATH’s right in the middle and above that uncharted territory with 6160 as the top of the expected move (6165/6175 bear call spreads?)
Previous resistance and 35EMA as support underneath us.
Red signal line.
Bull put spreads 6095/6085
SPX In Limbo - Which way will it break?SPX in Limbo – Will It Break Up or Down? | SPX Market Analysis 19 Feb 2025
Still waiting. Yep, that’s where we are.
The market is about as exciting as watching paint dry, but this is not the time to get impatient. As much as I’d love to jump into a trade just to feel productive, I know better—waiting for the right entry beats chasing the wrong one.
Let’s break it down while we sip on tea and pretend to be Zen masters of market patience.
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SPX Deeper Dive Analysis:
Why Patience is Everything in Trading
There’s an old trading rule that never fails—the market will always move… eventually. But right now, it’s in one of those frustrating, indecisive moods where:
Nothing is confirming (so forcing a trade is a bad idea)
It’s stuck between two key levels (meaning we wait for the breakout or breakdown)
Volume is sluggish (which means false moves are more likely)
Still Watching Two Scenarios
☑ Scenario #1 – The Bullish Breakout Entry
Needs price to confirm above key resistance
No fakeouts—just clean, strong momentum
Only then do I consider a bullish trade
☑ Scenario #2 – The Bearish Reversal Entry
Needs clear rejection at resistance
No weak, choppy movements—just a solid confirmation
Only then do I take a bearish setup
Why Forcing Trades is a Losing Game
Let’s be honest—waiting is boring. But do you know what’s worse? Jumping into a trade just because you're impatient… and then watching it immediately go against you.
Every trader, at some point, has thought:
"It looks like it’s going to move, maybe I should enter early…" (Nope.)
"I don’t want to miss the move…" (You won’t—if you follow the plan.)
"Other traders are jumping in—should I?" (Nope. They’re probably wrong.)
The right trade at the wrong time is still the wrong trade.
What’s Next?
✅ Stay patient—the market will tip its hand soon enough
✅ Wait for clear confirmation—not “I think this might be it” confirmation
✅ Don’t trade out of boredom—trade because the setup is 100% valid
📌 Final Takeaway? Patience = profit. I’m still waiting, tea in hand, and when the market finally makes its move, I’ll be ready.
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Fun Fact
📢 Did you know?
The stock market used to take 5 months to process a trade before the 1970s. Now? It happens in milliseconds—but traders still struggle to wait a few hours for the right setup.
💡 The Lesson?
Patience has always been a trader’s best tool. Some things never change.
SPX500USD Will Go Down From Resistance! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for SPX500USD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 6,134.7.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 6,040.9 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Elliott Wave View: S&P 500 (SPX) Breaking to New All-Time HighShort term Elliott Wave in S&P 500 (SPX) suggests that pullback to 5774.1 ended wave ((4)). The Index has resumed higher in wave ((5)) and broken above previous wave ((3)) peak. Wave ((5)) is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((4)), wave ((i)) ended at 5871.9 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 5805.4. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 5964.69 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 5930.72. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 6128.18 and this completed wave 1 in higher degree.
Pullback in wave 2 unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 5962.92 and rally in wave ((b)) ended at 6120.91. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 5923.9 which completed wave 2 in higher degree. The Index has resumed higher again in wave 3. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 6101.28 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 6003. Up from there, wave (i) should end soon, and the Index should pullback in wave (ii) to correct cycle from 2.12.2025 low before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 5774.1 low stays intact, expect pullback to find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
SPX500 - let's see how it worksSPX500 - let's wait for the price standing on daily support, and buy while revised pattern will be formed.
Short - 2nd tradeUse proper risk management
Looks like good trade.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice.
Channel patternThe price has formed a channel pattern and now the price has broken out signaling a bullish run, we have also seen a pullback after the breakout which is confirmation of a bullish impulse
WE ONLY TRADE PULLBACKS
S&P500trend is strong Bulish
test the trend line with Bulish divergence beak the range area .
anticipate price retrace at fib level 0.50%.
entry price (Buy limit) 5953
Stop Loss 5760
Take profit 6143
RRR 1:1
SPX Long Trade Setup Analysis (3H Timeframe - Vantage)🔹 Current Setup:
- 🦈 The Bullish Shark Pattern has completed at D (5912.17), indicating a potential reversal zone.
- 📉 Price is currently bouncing off the 1.001 Fibonacci extension level.
- 📍 Key Resistance Levels (Take Profit Targets):
- 🎯 TP1: Fibonacci 27.2% extension (~6201.66)
- 🎯 TP2: Fibonacci 61.8% extension (~6286.52)
- 📍 Key Support Levels:
- ❗ Critical Stop Zone: 5889.73 (inside the previously broken channel)
- 🔻 Deeper Bearish Target: 5782.41 (161.8% Fibonacci extension)
📈 Bullish Scenario (Long Setup)
- 🟢 Entry: Above 5945 (current market price)
- 🎯 Take Profit 1: 6201 (27.2% Fibonacci extension)
- 🎯 Take Profit 2: 6286 (61.8% Fibonacci extension)
- 🔴 Stop Loss: Below 5890 (to avoid whipsaws)
✅ Justification:
- 🔹 Price has bounced from a strong Fibonacci support level
- 🔹 Harmonic pattern suggests a potential bullish reversal
- 🔹 TP targets align with Fibonacci extension levels and previous structure resistance
📉 Bearish Scenario (Short Setup)
- ❌ Invalidation Level: Below 5880
- 🔻 Downside Targets:
- 5820: First support area
- 5782: 161.8% Fibonacci extension
✅ Justification:
- ❗ If the price breaks below 5890, the harmonic pattern fails, signaling more downside
- ❗ 5782 aligns with channel equilibrium, meaning a further drop could happen
⚡ Key Takeaways
- 🔹 Bullish bias above 5912, bearish below 5890
- 🔹 A break above 6000 will confirm the uptrend
- 🔹 A break below 5880 could lead to 5782 or lower
S&P 500 BREAKOUT?! 18.2.25Simple as can be.
1. November 2024 - Feb 2025 wedge pattern, converging support and resistance with higher highs and lows.
2. Descending trend-lines within the wedge, first line broken Jan 16th (highlighted) - 3% jump in 3 days of trading, second line broken today, Feb 18th.
3. Potential rise to the top of the wedge pattern, around the mid 6300's.
Stay logical, with a plan and consistent.
Fortune favors the brave!
(Read) Comprehensive Analysis of Potential S&P500 Market CrashThe S&P 500 Index, a barometer of U.S. equity market health, faces heightened scrutiny as analysts debate the likelihood and severity of a potential market correction or crash in the coming years. Synthesizing forecasts from leading financial institutions, historical patterns, and macroeconomic indicators reveals a complex landscape of competing narratives. This report evaluates the evidence for a near-term market downturn, projected crash magnitudes, and the interplay of factors that could catalyse or mitigate such an event.
Historical Context of S&P 500 Corrections and Crashes :
The S&P 500 has experienced 27 corrections exceeding 10% since 1928, with an average decline of 13.7% over four months. True crashes—defined as drops exceeding 20%—have occurred 14 times, most recently during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic (-34% peak-to-trough) and the 2022 inflation-driven bear market (-25.4%). Historical analysis shows crashes typically follow periods of excessive valuations, monetary policy tightening cycles, or exogenous shocks.
The index’s current forward P/E ratio of 21.8 sits 32% above its 25-year average, raising concerns about overvaluation. However, this metric alone proves insufficient for timing corrections, as demonstrated during the late 1990s tech bubble when valuations remained elevated for years before the eventual 49% crash from 2000-2002.
Current Macroeconomic Conditions and Risk Factors:
Federal Reserve Policy and Interest Rate Trajectory:
The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment creates policy tensions as core PCE inflation remains at 2.8% year-over-year (January 2025) against a 3.9% unemployment rate4. With the Fed funds rate at 5.25-5.50%, real rates stand at 2.45%—their highest level since 2007. Historical precedent suggests such restrictive policy environments precede recessions 70% of the time within 18 months.
Earnings Growth and Valuation Concerns:
Analysts project 14.8% earnings growth for S&P 500 constituents in 2025, driven primarily by the technology sector’s AI investments. However, this growth assumes no recession and continued margin expansion—a precarious assumption given rising labour costs and potential demand softening. The index’s Shiller CAPE ratio of 32.6 exceeds 1929 levels (32.5) and approaches the 2000 peak (44.2).
Geopolitical and Systemic Risks:
Ongoing conflicts in Eastern Europe and the South China Sea, coupled with U.S.-China trade tensions, introduce supply chain vulnerabilities. Energy markets remain volatile, with Brent crude at $92/barrel as of February 2025—a 28% year-over-year increase—pressuring corporate input costs.
Divergent Institutional Forecasts for 2025-2026:
Bull Case: Technology-Led Growth Continuation
UBS and Goldman Sachs project 2025 year-end targets of 6,600 (+13%) and 6,400 (+9.8%) respectively, citing:
AI-driven productivity gains adding 1.2% to annual GDP growth
Fed rate cuts totalling 75bps by Q3 2025
Corporate buybacks exceeding $1.2 trillion annually
Bear Case: Valuation Reset and Policy Error
Stifel’s analysis of 139 years of market data identifies parallels with 1929, 2000, and 2020 manias, forecasting:
A final speculative surge to ~6,400 (+26% from current levels)
Subsequent crash to 4,750 (-26%) by late 2025
Decadal underperformance with real returns averaging 2.1% through 2035
Independent analysts like Sven Carlin warn of 30% corrections as normalized rates (10-year Treasury at 4.5-5%) pressure equity risk premiums. This aligns with the Buffett Indicator (market cap/GDP) at 188%—surpassing 2000 and 1929 extremes.
Crash Probability Analysis and Potential Triggers
Quantitative Models and Leading Indicators
Recession Probability Models:
NY Fed’s yield curve model: 58% chance of recession by Q3 2026
Conference Board Leading Economic Index: -4.1% annualized decline
Technical Analysis:
Monthly RSI at 72 (overbought territory last seen pre-2008 crash)
Advance-Decline Line divergence since November 2024
Likely Catalysts for Correction:
Trigger Probability Potential Impact
Fed Policy Mistake 45% -15% to -25%
Geopolitical Shock 30% -10% to -20%
Earnings Recession 55% -20% to -35%
Systematic Leverage Unwind 25% -25% to -40%
The convergence of multiple triggers—such as stagflationary conditions combined with derivative market stress—could amplify losses beyond 30%.
Sector-Specific Vulnerabilities and Opportunities
High-Risk Sectors
Technology: 35% of index weighting trades at 32x forward earnings. 40% of AI-related revenue projections lack concrete use cases.
Consumer Discretionary: Rising delinquency rates (6.1% on auto loans) signal demand destruction.
Real Estate: Commercial property valuations down 18% from peaks with $1.5 trillion in maturing debt through 20262.
Defensive Opportunities
Utilities: 4.2% dividend yield with 85% regulated revenue streams.
Healthcare: Demographic tailwinds and 12.8x P/E multiple 23% below 10-year average.
Consumer Staples: Pricing power demonstrated through 6.4% organic growth despite volume declines.
Historical Crash Patterns and 2025 Scenario Analysis
Comparative Scenario Modeling
Scenario S&P 500 Path Probability
Soft Landing 6,900 (+17%) 25%
Mild Recession 5,200 (-12%) 40%
Systemic Crisis 4,100 (-30%) 20%
1970s-Style Stagflation 3,600 (-39%) 15%
The base case (40% probability) anticipates a rolling correction:
Q2 2025: Peak at 6,400 on AI hype and Fed cut hopes
Q3 2025: -18% decline as earnings disappoint
Q4 2025: Partial recovery to 5,600 on policy response
This aligns with VIX futures term structure showing heightened volatility expectations from June 2025 onward.
Risk Mitigation Strategies for Investors
Portfolio Construction Recommendations:
Equity Exposure: Reduce beta to 0.8 through:
15% cash allocation yielding 5.3% in money markets
20% minimum volatility ETFs (USMV)
5% long-dated put options (Jan 2026 4,800 strike)
Fixed Income: Ladder 2-10 year Treasuries capturing 4.6-5.1% yields.
Alternative Assets:
10% commodities (gold, copper, uranium)
5% managed futures (DBMF) for trend following
Behavioral Considerations
Avoid performance chasing in Mag-7 stocks trading at 40x average P/E
Rebalance quarterly to maintain risk thresholds
Stress test portfolios against 35% equity drawdown scenarios
Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty in Late-Cycle Markets
The S&P 500 faces its most complex macroeconomic environment since the Global Financial Crisis, with valuation extremes colliding against technological transformation. While crash probabilities remain elevated (55-60% chance of >20% decline by Q2 2026), the timing and magnitude depend critically on:
Fed Pivot Timing: Premature easing could reignite inflation, delaying cuts risks debt crisis
AI Monetization: Current $4.3 trillion market cap attributed to AI must materialize in earnings
Geopolitical Stability: 34 national elections in 2025 introduce policy uncertainty
We should prioritize capital preservation through disciplined asset allocation while maintaining exposure to structural growth themes. Historical analysis suggests that even severe crashes (30-40%) present generational buying opportunities for those with liquidity and fortitude to withstand volatility.
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Feb 18SP:SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Feb 18
OK - SPX - my baby.
Expected move on the day is between 6080 - 6155
Expected move on Wednesday’s contract 6065 - 6165
30 Day average is a bit wider 6050 - 6180 so might not be a bad plan to find the midpoint as well. Everything between 6165 and 6180 is extreme overbought and likewise everything between 6050 and 6065 is extreme oversold on the week.
That downtrend line that is facing down is not downward momentum. Look to the Moving averages instead.
We are just underneath ATH’s here and if we break above 6155 is the next target on the day
Underneath us we have the 35EMA and at the very bottom we have the 30min 200MA.
These two are bullish here after inflation data.
S&P500 Remarkable 16year Time Cycles call the Top and CorrectionThe S&P500 index (SPX) just made a new All Time High (ATH) and even though it hasn't picked up the pace since the initial very aggressive post-elections rally, it is entering a bullish phase.
In fact that is technically the last rally phase of the Bull Cycle that started at the bottom of the 2022 Inflation Crisis in October 2022. The reason behind this is the index' very reliable and consistent Time Cycle pattern that is repeated over and over again within the 16-year Channel Up that had been holding since the bottom of the 2009 Housing Crisis.
As you can see on this remarkable trading blue-print, ever since the index recovered the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) and turned it into its long-term Support, strong Cycles of Growth (Bullish Leg) and correction (Bearish Leg) phases became the norm.
Using the 1M RSI specific overbought pattern, we can see that from those points onwards, the Bull Cycle usually took around 12 months before it topped (Higher High on the Channel Up) and then corrected.
This suggests that by September 2025 we may have a new peak and it would be a good idea to have sold stock investments by then. The first two 12-month rallies (2014, 2018) posted +22.10% increases while the third (2021) posted +27.80%.
As a result this gives us a potential range of 6800 - 7200 within which selling should occur, in preparation for the 2026 correction.
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S&P 500 Trade Idea – Bullish OutlookS&P 500 Trade Idea – Bullish Outlook
The S&P 500 has been ranging since November 11, 2024, consolidating within a well-defined structure. A Wyckoff Spring occurred on January 13, confirming a strong demand zone and establishing a firm floor for price action.
Currently, price is trading above a key level at 6,100, signaling bullish momentum. As long as price holds above this level, any bullish pattern presents a strong buy opportunity with a long-term target of 6,400.
Trade Plan:
📈 Bias: Bullish
🔹 Entry: Look for bullish confirmations above 6,100
🔹 Target: 6,400
🔹 Invalidation: Breakdown below 6,100
This setup aligns with the larger trend and market structure. Let’s see how it plays out!
S&P 500 Trade Idea – Bullish OutlookS&P 500 Trade Idea – Bullish Outlook
The S&P 500 has been ranging since November 11, 2024, consolidating within a well-defined structure. A Wyckoff Spring occurred on January 13, confirming a strong demand zone and establishing a firm floor for price action.
Currently, price is trading above a key level at 6,100, signaling bullish momentum. As long as price holds above this level, any bullish pattern presents a strong buy opportunity with a long-term target of 6,400.
Trade Plan:
📈 Bias: Bullish
🔹 Entry: Look for bullish confirmations above 6,100
🔹 Target: 6,400
🔹 Invalidation: Breakdown below 6,100
This setup aligns with the larger trend and market structure. Let’s see how it plays out!
S&P 500 SELL ANALYSIS SMART MONEY CONCEPT Here on S&P 500 price form a supply around level of 6113.79 and is likely to continue moving as more seller is likely to come and push the price down so trader should go for short with expect profit target of 6031.38 and 5943.86 . Use money management
$SPX RECAP of Last Week Feb 10-14
SP:SPX RECAP of Last Week Feb 10-14
Last week was inflation data week and Monday and Tuesday we opened with a gap up and then stayed flat from there until CPI on Wednesday where we dropped down and filled the Monday gap and bounced on the 50 Day Moving Average.
After CPI (which came in HOTTT) and the bounce on the 50Day we took it to the downtrend and then pushed passed resistance And then saw resistance at ATH’s - not making new ATH’s even though we did see that in SPY
Friday closed Flat, SPY 0.00%, SPX -0.01% Vix UP 4.06% and we closed within the implied move on the day.
——
Watching just the 35EMA and the 30min 200MA we opened the week neutral and when price dropped to the 50DMA the 35EMA bounced on the 30min 200MA and we bounced it from there.
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Stupid Willy reading overbought with initial red signal line
S&P500: 1D MA100 in support going for a Cycle high.S&P500 just turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.850, MACD = 26.670, ADX = 18.407) a week after it tested the 1D MA100. Every time the 1D MA100 gets tested and holds a +15% rally starts that tests the HH trendline. Go long, TP = 6,650.
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