3pm updatePossible bounce here, technically it looks feasible. If overnight is a bounce, we may have a C wave into Friday. It's very uncertain here.
SPXM trade ideas
Take ProfitsIf you took the trade, good job.
We are at the 200 SMA, and this is a natural location to take profits.
Expecting some additional chop, the market never moves in a straight line... but the worst of it is over. If we retest the lows, I will buy again. If we retest the highs... or take too long... I will monitor for a new short.
S&P INTRADAY ahead of US Consumer Confidence data The Consumer Confidence Index, set to be released today at 14:00 GMT by the Conference Board, measures consumer sentiment on spending, jobs, inflation, and the economy. Since consumer spending drives the U.S. economy, a strong reading can signal bullish momentum for equities, while a weak reading may indicate bearish sentiment. Traders watch this data closely for insights into market direction.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5780
Resistance Level 2: 5844
Resistance Level 3: 5920
Support Level 1: 5660
Support Level 2: 5604
Support Level 3: 5500
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Monthly Chart SPX Cautious Liquidity PositioningThis month, the S&P 500 (SPX) has shown signs of a cautious liquidity shift as investors take a more measured approach to risk. While the index remains near all-time highs, underlying market activity suggests hesitation rather than aggressive buying. I currently have no active positions.
Investors are rotating out of high-growth stocks and into more defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples. This shift signals concerns about potential volatility, possibly due to upcoming Federal Reserve decisions, economic data, or geopolitical risks. At the same time, large tech stocks—key drivers of the market rally—are seeing some profit-taking, further indicating a more defensive stance.
In the options market, there has been increased demand for downside protection. A rising put-to-call ratio and higher implied volatility suggest that traders are preparing for potential pullbacks rather than chasing new highs. Retail speculation has also slowed, with lower volumes in leveraged ETFs and call options.
Another sign of caution is the increase in money market fund inflows, as investors park cash in short-term instruments offering attractive yields. The U.S. Treasury’s ongoing debt issuance is also pulling liquidity away from equities.
While the Federal Reserve has hinted at possible rate cuts later this year, inflation remains a concern, keeping policymakers on hold for now. Market expectations for rate cuts have been pushed further out, tightening financial conditions and limiting excess liquidity that previously fueled stock market gains.
Overall, SPX liquidity trends this month suggest the market is at a turning point. While the index remains strong, the cautious stance in underlying market activity raises questions about whether stocks can continue higher without a fresh catalyst.
0 DTE Call Spread - SPX0 DTE Call Spread
-5755 +5760
4.48% gain on cap invested
Started at 0.5 Delta
Bullish Entry Spotted – Now We Wait...Bullish Entry Spotted – Now We Wait... | SPX Analysis 28 Mar 2025
Imagine the market dressed like Jack Nicholson in One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest—slack-jawed, glassy-eyed, and strapped into a straightjacket made of indecision. That’s been the vibe all week. SPX continues to shuffle back and forth around 5700 like it's lost its meds and forgot where it was going. But if you’ve been following the plan, none of this should be surprising.
We mapped it out on Monday, discussed it live in our Fast Forward mentorship call, and here we are watching it all play out with popcorn in hand. Today’s action may seem like “not much ado about anything,” but if you know what to look for… there’s gold in this grind.
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The end of March has the feel of a market that’s had one too many – not enough to fall over, but just enough to slur its way through price action.
All week we’ve been dancing around the 5700 level – and for good reason. It’s acting as a triple threat:
The GEX Flip Point
The prior range high
And now, the Bollinger Bands have closed in to confirm this as a possible launch (or rejection) zone.
Add in the emergence of a pinch point, and what we’ve got is a market that’s coiling like a spring… but refusing to actually bounce.
📈 Bullish Swing Activated:
During Monday’s Fast Forward group session, we mapped out a key level to watch for pulse bars. Lo and behold, the market obliged. I entered a bullish swing trade after seeing those bars fire right at the expected spot. No surprises, no panic – just execution.
🐻 Bear Swing Trigger Set:
If the market does decide to do a dramatic nosedive, I’ve marked 5675 as my bear/hedge trigger – just under Thursday’s lows. Until then, it’s a game of “wait, watch, and get ready to stack the next trade.”
💤 Nothing Much? Still Profitable:
Look, I get it – this week’s been slower than a BBC period drama. But just because things move at glacial speed doesn’t mean there’s nothing to do. As always, it’s about planning the trade, then trading the plan – not reacting to every twitch like a caffeinated squirrel.
And if you’re wondering how the market feels…
Let’s just say the “moves” this week have been scratchier than usual, so I’ll be looking for a special cream over the weekend.
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The first “stock ticker” was powered by telegraph wires and clock springs. It was invented in 1867 by Edward Calahan… who was just 22 years old at the time.
Before computers, before real-time data feeds, and way before Robinhood traders turned market moves into meme fodder – we had the ticker tape. Edward Calahan, a young telegraph operator, created the first stock ticker machine using the same tech that powered telegrams. It printed stock prices on a long ribbon of paper, allowing traders to see “live” quotes for the first time.
This primitive marvel revolutionised Wall Street – traders no longer had to wait hours (or days) for price updates. And now here we are, trading from our phones while sipping lattes and watching pulse bars ping in real-time. Technology, eh?
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Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
p.s. Ready to stop scratching your head and start stacking profits?
If you want to trade with clarity – not confusion – then it’s time to get serious about structure.
🔥 Join the Fast Forward Mentorship – trade live, twice a week, with me and the crew. PLUS Monthly on-demand 1-2-1's
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No fluff. Just profits, pulse bars, and patterns that actually work.
Look before you leap. Two up days this week on top of pricing holding support in the previous week.
Sound like a good time to be a buyer? Consider this weekly chart of SPX and its trendline over the last year. When was the last time you saw price make a new high that began like this?
Oh it can happen, I'm just point out that it is a low-probability bet right now. It would be far more likely for SPX to break its trendline and head lower than it would for prices to make a new high. Think about that before you make your next purchase in stocks.
S&P500 BuysI've set a buy limit on this indice based on the ICT concept the sell to buy model mixed with the MMBM
S&P 500 eases back from 200-dayThe S&P 500 has been on an impressive two-week rally but is now encountering a crucial resistance zone. The index is currently testing resistance near the 200-day moving average and a previous support level in the 5770-5800 range. This key area, highlighted in grey on the chart, could determine whether the recent bullish momentum continues.
Meanwhile, support is found around 5695-5670, marked in blue on the chart. This zone is significant as it previously served as the launch point for the post-election rally before it lost steam. Reclaiming this level is a bullish signal, but the S&P 500 needs to stay above it through to next week to maintain its upward trajectory.
If support at 5695-5670 fails, the bulls could face serious headwinds. A breakdown at this level may trigger renewed selling pressure, similar to the declines seen in previous weeks. The situation could worsen if the index falls below 5600, which was Friday’s low, when a hammer candle was formed.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Intraday Buy Opportunity: US500Intraday Idea - We look to Buy TRADENATION:US500 at 5735
Technical View
Trades at the highest level in 12 days
The rally has posted a correction count on the intraday chart
An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning
Bespoke support is located at 5735
Previous resistance, now becomes support at 5725
Stop: 5695
Target: 5867
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
#SPX - 26 MarSPX made a nice bottom off PZ yesterday and moved up.
Today, I am looking for a possible move down to 5750, make a new low but find buyers to move higher to 5860.
Hourly Sell DivergenceThere was supposed to be less tariffs, but by the close, it's more tariffs not less. The charts don't lie like politicians often do.
SPX us500The index has a target price range of 5991, there is a possibility of going up from this moment, but another possibility is that the range of 5520 will be touched and then it will move up.
[W] SP500 - 24.3.2025This has been an unusually disturbing prediction that I have ever made, and yet so long expected. It's also probably for the first time, I do it on a weekly chart! The huge question mark here, is how FED will react to stagflation turning into a recession, and to recession with a looming threat to progress further. At some point, they might be tempted to act with low rate and EQ, which will further increase already high Gini index and might eventually cause defaults on loans and mortages. Thus, causing a crisis not seen since 2008. The current president Donald Trump might want to distract from the increasingly worsening domestic situation by seeking and external (and internal) enemy, further strengthening his grip on power. While the entire situation might provide a temporary boost to the defense sector alongside with utilities, foreign capital and trade will likely diminish. Unlike the 2008 crisis that was caused predominantly by internal factors, this case might be marked by geopolitical isolation which threatens to leave a much deeper scar.
US 500 Index – A Deeper Rally or Retreat?The US 500 rallied 0.8% last week to close at 5666 and in doing so managed to lock in its first up week since early February. The bounce also brought some joy to those dip buyers that had to endure watching the index move into correction territory (10% drop from 6144 high) the previous week when it touched a 6-month low at 5505 on March 13th.
Looking forward, it is probably still way too early to say that the selling and rotation away from US stocks into other global indices is over, although what we can say is that traders have taken a pause for reflection ahead of what could be a volatile finish to the end of the first quarter of 2025. Afterall, sentiment towards stocks in the US 500, especially the technology sector, remains fragile.
In the week ahead traders are likely to be focused on the finer details of President Trump’s plan for reciprocal tariffs, which are due to hit all countries, including long-time US allies, on April 2nd. The breadth of these tariffs and the extent of retaliatory measures, particularly from China and the EU, are likely to have knock on implications for US economic growth, inflation and consumer confidence (see below) , all of which are key factors that may impact future corporate earnings and the direction of the US 500 across the week.
Economic Data:
Monday: 1345 GMT US Preliminary PMI Surveys
Tuesday: 1400 GMT US Consumer Confidence
Friday: 1230 GMT US PCE Index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge)
Solid Footing:
The US 500 has opened the week on a more solid footing after a weekend report on Bloomberg suggested President Trump’s wave of tariffs are to be more targeted than the all-out assault he has touted on social media over the last few weeks.
However, this is yet to be confirmed, and while not the worst-case scenario, it would still be an escalation of the current trade wars and may still result in retaliatory measures from those countries that are hit the hardest. It could also mean traders need to be on Trump social media watch again in the early part of this week.
Technical Update: A Question of Fibonacci Retracements
The US 500 index encountered an aggressive sell-off of 10.4% from the February 2025 all-time high at 6144 to its March low of 5505, from which attempts to bounce have materialised.
This low was important from a technical perspective because the sell off tested a possible support level, marked by a Fibonacci retracement. In the case of the US 500 index, it was the 50% level of the April 2024 to February 2025 advance which stands at 5533 (see chart above).
Using Fibonacci Retracements:
Fibonacci retracements are useful as they can highlight potential support levels when any price weakness is seen and potential resistance levels when any price strength is seen.
Closing breaks below retracement support or above retracement resistance can suggest the possibility of a more extended price move in the direction of the break.
We recently published a report on how to use Fibonacci retracements in greater detail, so please take a look at our timeline to read this.
Are Fibonacci Retracement Levels Offering Any Insight into Recent US 500 Index Moves?
Having already rallied following tests of the 5533 retracement level, this has been confirmed as a support focus moving forward. While closing breaks are not a guarantee of further price declines, with much still dependent on future price trends and sentiment across the trading week, it may well be closes below this level that expose the potential for deeper declines.
If this were to happen, downside potential may then shift towards retracement support at the 61.8% level, which stands at 5389 as you can see on the chart above.
Fibonacci Resistance Focus:
We can also run Fibonacci retracements on the February to March phase of weakness to provide potential resistance levels to focus on in case there is an extension of the recent rally. The 38.2% retracement of the February to March decline stands at 5750 and this is a level that might need to be monitored.
If this 5750 level were to be broken on a closing basis, it may be possible to see a more extended phase of price strength which could could skew the focus for traders towards resistance at 5825, which is the higher 50% retracement level, may be even 5900, which is the 61.8% retracement.
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S&P nearing the 38% retracement and flag top! Intraday Update: The S&P futures are up today following possible tariff news being factored in from some weekend headlines about "targeted reciprocal tariffs" for April 2nd, which is allowing for the S&P to near the 38% retracement which would be the top of the beer flag pattern and setup.
Bulls game over now 4820 incoming Monthly TF down move incoming.. Short from 6000 Tp 4820.. Good luck and safe trade
SPX Death Cross Late April?If you look at the 200 and 50 MA we can see they will be converging in late April. If there is a relief rally, it will most likely top out around the 100 MA level. Either way it is not looking good right now.
The Election Was Support. Has it Become Resistance?Last year’s presidential election was a catalyst for stocks. Today’s idea considers its potentially shifting impact on sentiment.
The first pattern on today’s S&P 500 chart is the range between 5597 and 5783. Those prices are the low of November 4 and the high of November 5, the Monday and Tuesday of election week.
On January 13, SPX pulled back to find support at the top of the range. That bounce seemed to reflect ongoing optimism about the coming administration. (Inauguration was exactly a week later.)
The index remained above that zone through early March before sliding below it. Prices have now rebounded but appear to be stalling at the bottom of the price range. Does that show a newer anxiety about policy?
Next, Wilder’s relative strength index (RSI) made lower highs from early December -- despite SPX making incrementally higher highs. That kind of bearish divergence may be consistent with a longer-term trend fading.
Third, SPX is under its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Staying here may confirm a break of its longer-term uptrend.
Finally, the 50-day SMA recently crossed below 100-day SMA. Both are falling. That may also suggest prices have stopped rising.
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What Do the S&P 500 and Nasdaq’s Charts Say?Let's take a look at charts for the S&P 500 SP:SPX S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index NASDAQ:IXIC to see where the market might be heading.
The S&P 500’s Technical Picture
Take a look at the S&P 500’s chart going back to early January:
Check out the market action from last Friday (March 14) -- a day when New York Stock Exchange winners beat losers by roughly 16 to 3.
Advancing volume took a commanding 90.1% share of composite NYSE-listed trade, and an almost as impressive 80.8% share of composite Nasdaq-listed activity.
However, aggregate trade nonetheless dropped 3.1% on a day-over-day basis across NYSE-domiciled names and 0.8% for Nasdaq-listed ones.
In other words, there was less conviction in last Friday's rally than was visible in any of the recent down days that led to that session.
As a matter of fact, that Friday was the quietest trading day for S&P 500 stocks since Feb. 20 -- more than three weeks earlier. Hence, we could probably not call Friday’s rally a change in trend.
Then came the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary-policy statement and press conference this past Wednesday (March 19).
The Fed left rates unchanged, but its “dot plot” reiterated that the central bank still expects to cut rates by 50 basis points this year – news that helped send the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up more than 1% each.
Would technical analysis have told us to expect this?
Well, readers will note that the chart above shows a so-called “double top” pattern of bearish reversal from early January through late February (marked “Top 1” and “Top 2” in the red boxes above.
Next, the S&P saw what we call "Day One" of the bearish change in trend on Feb. 21, marked with an orange box in the chart above.
A “Day One” isn’t necessarily the first day of a trend change. Instead, it’s merely the first day of a trend change that occurs broadly and on sharply increased trading volume.
The S&P 500’s “Day One” above was followed by a so-called "Confirmation Day" on Feb. 27.
A “Confirmation Day” is a session that confirms a trend change. It can come anywhere from two days to several days after the Day One.
However, a Confirmation Day must represent a broad move and come on increased trading volume -- and there’s also a catch. There must be a pause in between the Day One and the Confirmation Day.
This suggests that portfolio managers took some time, thought about what they were doing and then continued to either increase or decrease exposure depending on the Confirmation Day’s pattern (up or down).
Without this pause, what we would have is one long move that doesn’t confirm anything technically.
In the above chart, all of what we saw was a spot-on sign of a double-top pattern.
But next came a so-called "Outside Day" on March 3 -- a one-day pattern that hinted at increased volatility to come.
An Outside Day occurs when the trading range of a given day completely envelopes the day prior and the open and close of said day also encompass the open and close of the day prior. This one-day pattern often signals a coming period of increased volatility.
Next, the S&P 500 saw a so-called "faux Day One” last Friday, March 14. That could have kicked off a bullish change in trend, but the S&P 500 rose on light trading volume.
Additionally, the SPX never made a serious run at retaking its 200-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” marked with a red upwardly sloping line above).
Technical analysis won’t tell us much about the S&P 500 (or the Nasdaq Composite, for that matter) as long as those indexes trade below their 200-day SMAs. That often keeps portfolio managers on the sidelines.
In fact, much of the swing crowd tones down their activity as well as long as the major indices don’t even make a run at their respective 21-day Exponential Moving Averages (or “EMAs,” denoted by the green line above).
Also note that even on the down day of March 18, the S&P 500’s trading volume (marked with gray bars in the chart above) continued to tail off a bit, indicating increasing uncertainty.
That said, readers will see a slight uptick in trading volume for this past Wednesday (Fed Day). The S&P 500 was up nicely that day, and got off to a good start on Thursday (March 20) as well.
Alone, that’s not enough to christen a new "Day One" of a bullish trend reversal, partly because the Nasdaq Composite was not as active (as readers will see below).
Typically, Wall Street would like to see both major indexes up on sharply increased trading volume to declare a “Day One” bullish reversal. The SPX and Nasdaq have come very close to allowing us to do that, but don’t appear to be there yet.
Technical Analysis for the Nasdaq Composite Index
Next, let’s look at the Nasdaq Composite’s chart going back to early December:
The Nasdaq appears more challenged than the S&P 500 at this time, but both are close to giving us the first step of what the bulls need to see.
As with the SPX, the Nasdaq Composite saw a “double-top” bearish pattern in December and January (marked “Top 1” and “Top 2” above).
The index then saw a “Day One” and a “Confirmation Day” in late February, followed by an “Outside Day” on March 3.
It then saw an “Up Day” on March 19, although on lower trading volume. And as with the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite has yet to retake its 200-day SMA (the upwardly sloping red line in the chart above).
The Bottom Line
Add it all up and the major US equity indices look like they remain in a downtrend.
We still need to see a "Day One” move to the upside, then a pause and then a "Confirmation Day."
That could take up to a week, but to rush into things without confirmation is closer to gambling than it is to trading.
Again, the 200-day SMA is perhaps the most important item to watch on these charts. That's where large flows of capital will come from … if portfolio managers decide to increase their overall long-side exposure.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in the securities mentioned at the time of writing this column.)
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