S & P Index - Volatality Magic StudyThis is for the study purpose based on the index volatility and the level are based on no of points it can move within the short span of time.
SPXM trade ideas
SP500 Ready to RetraceS&P doesn't look good for next week. Probably a gap up to get rid off shorts then drop.
Important structure reached FridayThe trendline structure from the top was reached FRiday and I believe we may rally back to it at open but fail. There are a LOT of traders calling for a test of the 200 ma again, but I'm not sure it will actually occur. Vix also did not fill it's gap on Friday which could be interpreted as bullish for the VIX
S&P500 is set to rebound to new highsDual EBP on the weekly and daily indicative of bullish price action and time frame allignment. S&P500 is set for new highs.
Major shift on the S&P 500: Is the bull market really over ?
After three years of almost uninterrupted gains, the U.S. market has finally shifted gears.
In early March, following a sharp escalation in trade tensions between China and the United States, the S&P 500 officially entered a bear market.
The tariff shock acted as a catalyst: buyers failed to defend critical levels, and the bullish momentum broke down.
Today, my scenario is clear:
I believe we are entering a wide range similar to what we saw in 2022, between 4700 and 5500 points.
In this controlled volatility environment, both investing and trading strategies must adapt.
💰 For long-term investing:
I'm staying fully in cash.
I prefer to wait until my personal indicator flashes green again before re-entering the market.
Patience is my best weapon in uncertain environments.
🎯 For swing trading:
The approach here is more active.
Each touch of the lower boundary (around 4700) will be considered a tactical buy, aiming to resell around 5500 points at the top of the range.
No rushing, no chasing moves: I only act at the extremes.
Mechanical Over Mood. AlwaysWell, this week really wanted to test both my trading discipline… and my tech patience.
My laptop decided to kick the bucket mid-session.
But honestly? Not even mad.
Because it reminded me of something traders forget too often:
Simple is better. Mechanical is best.
No charts? No problem.
Noisy bias? Ignore it.
Just follow the system and let the setups do the work.
And right now?
The market gave us a Tag off the lower Bollinger Band…
Then a Turn with some clean bullish pulse bars…
Now we’re tagging the upper band again.
Textbook mechanical structure.
No predictions. No overlays. Just rules.
Yes, compression still lingers – the bands are squeezed tighter than my laptop battery casing.
But until something breaks out (or explodes), I’m trading it simple.
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SPX Market View
Some days the market whispers.
Some days it screams.
And then… there are days like this – where it quietly tags, turns, and retags like a kid playing solo hide and seek.
Welcome to compression.
Welcome to Tag ‘n Turn 2: Return to the Band.
Yesterday gave us exactly what we needed:
Tag off the lower Bollinger Band
Bullish pulse bars firing in sequence
Now back to the upper BB as of this morning
It’s a full mechanical cycle playing out in slow motion.
The band width? Still squeezed.
So unless we get a confirmed breakout – no compounding, no fireworks, no fast lane.
That’s not a problem.
It’s a feature.
Why?
Because in environments like this, the strategy doesn’t just work – it filters the noise.
No guesswork. No hoping. No “is this the one?”
Just a defined setup, and a playbook that responds only when the price earns it.
I’m staying bullish as long as this range holds.
Pulse bars off the highs or lows? I’m in.
Breakout confirmed? Let’s ride it.
Dip to mid-band? Still valid.
The structure is intact.
The setup is valid.
And even if my laptop’s dying breath is a warning beep, I’ll still be trading off what matters.
Trade the system. Trust the sequence. Let the rest break down.
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Expert Insights:
Mistake #1: Overcomplicating compressed conditions.
Compression doesn’t mean “do more” – it means “do less, better.”
Fix: Let the pulse bar do the talking. Keep your setup clean.
Mistake #2: Ignoring band re-tags as valid setups.
Returning to the upper or lower band doesn’t invalidate the prior move.
Fix: Use structure. Re-tags can still deliver if pulse bars confirm.
Mistake #3: Letting tech failures bleed into trading decisions.
Just because your screen flickers doesn’t mean your system broke.
Fix: Stay mechanical. Even from a mobile. It’s not the gear – it’s the method.
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Rumour Has It…
Wall Street insiders are reporting that Apple’s next product will be the MacBook Trader, a laptop designed specifically to fail whenever Bollinger Bands compress.
Features include:
An auto-dimming screen whenever pulse bars form
A built-in “Hope Mode” that deletes your rulebook
And a random error that whispers “maybe just this once…”
Traders are advised to plug directly into their mechanical setups or, failing that, scribble strategies on a coffee-stained napkin like it’s 2002.
Rumour has it that a squirrel from Central Park is currently outperforming several hedge funds using nothing but broken Fibonacci tools and pure optimism.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
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Fun Fact – Did You Know?
The term “Frankenstein” originally came from Mary Shelley’s story of a scientist trying to control something he didn’t fully understand…
Which is what most traders do with indicators.
They bolt on RSI here, MACD there, sprinkle in some Fibonacci dust, and hope it walks.
But the real monsters aren’t the tools – they’re discretionary trades pretending to be mechanical.
Moral of the story?
You don’t need a stitched-together algo monster.
You just need a clean pulse bar, a set of rules, and the ability to sit still.
Weekend Trading Note - 3 May 2025A couple of interesting dynamics in the market over the latter half of the week:
- Minimal reaction to economic data suggests that traders are weighing the pull between deflation and tariffs, which are undoubtedly putting the fed in a bind. Can they raise rates at a time of uncertainty when it comes to tariff-induced inflation. Recent data suggests deflation and a strong economy. Nothing is clear.
- The temporary uncoupling of BTC and the Nasdaq100 is interesting, but such narrative-led decoupling has happened on a short-term basis before. Perhaps this time the anti-dollar trade will continue a while longer, until calm is restored.
- Businesses seem to be reacting to the Trump uncertainty by slowing down their trading activity and hesitating to invest or grow until more clarity is available. The loss of confidence and reassurance of clear direction may be damaging in the longer-term, elevating the potential for a technical recession as business enter more defensive posturing.
- Theres still some potential for good news around a deal between the US and China leading to a return to a risk-on regime in the near-term. The question on whether this will be enough to propel US equities to new all time highs will depend on the pre-existing structural issues with the macroeconomy
Enough macro. Here’s what I’m looking at in markets:
- SPX has retraced back up to the 0.618 fib of the recent downside move. This coincides with the POC on the anchored volume profile (anchored from the ATH). If the SPX is going to retest the lows, I’d expect it this begin in the next 5-10 days. A complete breakdown below its current lows is unlikely at this stage, but a wick slightly below current lows marking the bottom is definitely on the cards.
- BTC’s relative strength is encouraging. A retest of the $88700 level would offer a good entry for a trade back up to the current high at around $109K and perhaps more.
5700 reachedWe are floating up on little volume. I believe qqq is a better chart for fibs and structure - so I show what I see there. VIX likely fills it's gap at 21.80 by the end of today. The close will probably stay bullish, but I think next week will be the start of a move down.
S&P 500 ChartSupport, Resistance, Trendlines.
Not a recommendation to buy or sell the market. For informational purposes only.
April 25 crypto and stock market results📈 April portfolio recap: $2,293 in profit despite market decline
Each month, I publish performance reports to stay accountable and track the real results of my trading strategies across both stock and crypto markets.
In this post, I’ll break down my April 2025 performance — where my portfolio grew, even as the broader market declined.
🏛️ Stock market results: $1,144 profit
Despite a red month for the broader market, my equity portfolio performed well:
• Monthly return: just above 1%
• S&P 500 performance: -44 basis points (−0.44%)
Outperforming the S&P 500 in a down month is never easy, but my holdings managed to stay in the green.
🪙 Crypto portfolio: $1,139 recovery
My crypto allocation also showed strength in April, largely thanks to my liquidity pool strategy, which is finally beginning to yield real results.
• Monthly crypto return: just over 6%
• By comparison, simply holding BTC would have yielded around 14%
While my strategy didn’t beat Bitcoin in raw percentage terms, it offered recovery after previous drawdowns.
📊 Portfolio Overview
• Cumulative profit: $10,000+
• Average portfolio return since inception: ~11.5%
I began investing in 2020, and have steadily built a portfolio that balances growth with risk control. My approach involves both active management (via options and selective equities) and passive yield strategies in DeFi.
🔍 What’s Next?
I’ll continue to post live trade updates, monthly recaps, and strategy breakdowns. If you’re interested in real portfolio transparency and real-time insights — follow along.
Bias still up but....Watch for a bear trap into the close today as a C wave. Vix could reverse before filling it's gap. Chances are we reach the Bollinger Band at 5710 but they could have another down move on the SPX before that occurs.
US500 Reversal Zone? My Thought Process Explained 🎯 📉 Earlier today I posted an analysis on the US500, highlighting how price has traded into a weekly bearish order block 🧱 — a key distribution zone where I believe smart money could look to unwind positions. The market is currently overextended and sitting at a premium, which raises the risk of a potential aggressive retrace 🔄, especially heading into the weekend. ⚠️
💭 Here's a video where I break down that exact setup and walk you through my full thought process, including why I’m exercising extreme caution at these levels and what I’m looking for in terms of confirmation.
📚 As always, this is for educational purposes only — not financial advice. 🚫💼
Mixed signals in the MarketBoth the market and VIX are showing bullish and bearish signals. I try to explain what the possibilities are if we - rally higher, or sell down below 5550. Good luck
$SPX Resistance and Downward Momentum Resistance and Downward Momentum at the Top of the Gap, which is also the top of Friday’s Implied move.
I took 5645/5675 0dte bear call spreads, 1/4 width to start and so far so good.
Let’s see if we get the downward pull of todays trading range here.
Short Pullback Bigger RallySPX Daily Chart
SPX has made two island reversals and gapped up.
There are two resistances near 5500 and 5700. Some short pull backs in this region.
Thereafter, a rally up to the earlier high of 6200.
The SPX Sell Off at 5500Hi all,
It has been a while since we posted as we waited for a really good trade setup. The SPX is hovering at 5500 and we believe it is the right level to sell.
1) There is a shark pattern at this level
2) RSI is overbought on every time frame except H4 and D1
3) There are smaller patterns to sell
4) There is very strong structural resistance at 5510 to 5520
The first target will be 5306 which has a great risk to reward of 1:5.
We will wait for M15 divergence and a trend line break to enter.
SPY/SPX500: Bearish Setup Ahead of Key Macro Events🔍 15-Min Chart Analysis – April 30, 2025
The S&P 500 (SPX500) is currently facing resistance near the 5,560.65 zone, a confluence of a key Fibonacci level (0.382 retracement) and a rising wedge upper boundary. Price has shown signs of rejection after a recovery from the ORB low of 5,505.88, and is struggling to break above 5,557–5,560, which aligns with a prior supply zone.
🔧 Technical Breakdown:
Bearish Rising Wedge Formation: Price is respecting the wedge trendlines, suggesting a potential breakdown.
Fibonacci Confluence Zones:
Resistance: 0.382 at 5,557.18
Support: 1.382 extension aligns with 5,508.75, which is just above the ORB low and a possible target.
Short Bias Trigger: A clean break below the wedge support (~5,545) could accelerate downside.
Target Zones:
🎯 First target: 5,524.39 (ORB low)
🎯 Second target: 5,508–5,505 area (Fibo 1.382 + ORB range support)
🔮 Probability Outlook:
Bearish bias: 65%
Bullish breakout: 25%
Sideways consolidation: 10%
🧠 Macro Context:
With U.S. GDP and FOMC decisions imminent, volatility is expected to spike. A break below wedge support could trigger a retracement toward key support zones. Be cautious of false breakouts as macro catalysts come into play.
📌 Watch the 5,545 level closely. Rejection + volume drop = high-probability short setup.
SPX Peaks at 6,100; Correction Toward 4,600 LikelyThe SP:SPX ’s rally, which kicked off at 3,500 in late 2022, climaxed around 6,100 in February 2025.
Since then, the trend has clearly reversed, and I expect the correction to persist. As long as the index remains below 5,800 (supply), downward momentum should continue.
A pullback toward 4,600 by 2026 appears plausible, with that level likely acting as resistance or support—warranting a fresh assessment upon arrival.
In the near term, the SPX is likely to trade within a 5,100–5,700 range.
SPX is entering into a new phase of complex corrective waveThe SPX downside is likely to be over after the index was seen invalidating the wave-4 rule of the 5-wave impulse Elliott wave structure. Furthermore, theres a bear trap as price never closes below 6% from 5,120 major support and strong bullish pressure was seen thereafter, and returning back above the uptrend with strong bullish pressure was seen as a strong upside.
Stochastic Oscillator has confirmed the oversold signal.
Target is likely to see 5,792 as the next immediate target. But we do not foresee a new high yet. We think that the correction is likely to unfold in a three wave manner.
SPX500 rebound will finish in the range of 5650 to 5750.Trump’s tweet on April 9 regarding the moderation of tariff measures triggered a strong market rebound. Retail investors are buying the dip, contributing to this recovery, while institutional investors are actually net sellers. In April, capital flowed out of U.S. equities and mid- to long-term U.S. Treasury bonds.
We anticipate that both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 will rebound to the Fibonacci 0.618 level or slightly above, recovering about 62% of the entire decline since December 2024. We believe this rebound will be temporary, followed by another decline. Currently, both indices are approaching the Fibonacci 0.618 level.
While many people focus on tariffs and the trade war, the Trump administration is also facing an imminent national debt crisis. The total national debt stands at $36 trillion, with interest payments this year expected to be around $1 trillion—about one-fifth of the federal government's tax revenue. Additionally, $8 trillion will reach maturity this year, and $6 trillion will need to be rolled over in June. This is a significant amount, yet demand for mid- to long-term U.S. Treasury bonds remains weak. The Federal Funds Rate (short-term rate) is currently between 4.25% and 4.5%, while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is around 4.3%, both of which are high.
Trump wants to see these rates much lower, but Powell must first assess the inflationary impact of the tariff measures before considering any rate cuts. If inflation resurges beyond expectations, the Fed may be reluctant to cut rates. Consequently, the U.S. stock market could experience a sharp and rapid decline amid these uncertainties. A recession is likely arriving.
SPX bullishI am now bullish in near term. For those following me, I have updated HILO EMA squeeze band with an option to plot more lines as seen this chart. I see a swing high of 5770, although a bit cautious about the month end. Market is tired of Trump tantrums and more focused on earnings which have been great so far. For near term month or two I would be looking for bye the dip
Into the Close, some thoughts about the price actionA difficult and choppy day again. We did rally from the low to 5525 as I thought, but it's possible this was a squeeze to take shorts out before the bigger move down into the rest of the week. it's difficult to say with big earnings about to hit. The daily candle is forming a hanging man, and it could be a clue. We'll see how it looks tomorrow.
SPX as an exampleCorrect me if I'm wrong, but this has got to be one of the craziest monthly candlesticks the stock markets have ever printed, and perfectly completes a potential wave 4 in a 5 wave count.
