SPXM trade ideas
SPX cycle tell me we are in a bear market this yearThe cycles and the crosses are clones, therefore not exact fit.It doesn't look like a correction when I look at the cycles and pattern. I am more convinced that it is going to be a bear market in USA not just on technical but even on fundamentals:
China has just finished a recession and will grow with higher cost of production, unlike 2000-2015. Market and Fed is under illusion that inflation will come down to 2% (Thank chinese cheap goods for that before covid, but not now and going forward). Higher cost of chinese goods and trump tariff are sure to jack up inflation to 4%+ this year in my opinion. People are addicted to low interest rate since 2000's, but historically they ware always higher at 6% mean.
Any rallies would be temporary
SP500 - Long Strategy with FED effectI think that FED can give a pump to SP500, probably we will go directly to first 2 target than we can have a retest of support area. In any case there is a volume pressure under this price level so is aspected a long wave.
S&P 500. First 5 waves upIm aiming for this. First need to see the 5 waves to the upside. Then draw fib tool over all the 5 waves and buy at the 0.5 or 0.382 fib to go op more. Trade save
S&P 500 Setting Up for a Breakout – But Not Before One More TrapAs I’ve said before, the FOREXCOM:SPX500 is a key reference for my crypto trading . That’s why I sat down and took a closer look at the chart – and I’m now ready to place a limit order , based on what I’m seeing.
I believe we’re still in a correction phase , and it’s far from over . However, I think it’s realistic that we’ll see a move toward $5,832 next week . Before that happens, I expect either today’s Monday Low or next week’s Previous Weekly Low to get swept, ideally triggering a dip into the 12-hour Fair Value Gap just below.
That’s where I see my entry zone forming. It’s also the exact area where Wave B overshoots the starting point of Wave ABC, making it a clean Flat correction pattern, with Wave C completing to the downside before we get a solid move upward.
I’m setting my stop-loss below the $5,500 low. If this setup plays out, I expect the S&P to push toward $5,832 , and after that, I’m anticipating a larger correction that could take the index back down to $5,500 or even $5,450 over the coming weeks.
Timing remains unclear for that move after, but the structure is here , and I’m looking forward to seeing how it plays out.
Still more upside for SPX500USDHi traders,
SPX500USD did exactly what I've predicted.
Last week I said we could see a (corrective) upmove to the higher Weekly FVG. It depends if the upmove is corrective or impulsive what we will be the move after that.
But also fundamentally we could see more longer term downside for this pair. This scenario is still in progress for next week.
So let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction down to finish on a lower timeframe to trade longs.
If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis.
If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 21, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the course of this week's trading session, the S&P 500 achieved the designated target for the Inner Index Rally at 5576, which occurred midweek. This target was accompanied by considerable volatility, ultimately hindering upward movement. On the week's final trading day, the index experienced a notable decline, resulting in a significant drop that reached our critical target, Mean Support, at 5603.
Consequently, the index is now poised to target a retest of the Inner Index Rally level 5712, with a subsequent potential target identified at the Mean Resistance level 5840. It is essential to consider that upon reaching the Inner Index Rally target of 5712, a decrease in the current price level is anticipated, which may lead to a retest of the Mean Support at 5601. Furthermore, an extended decline is possible to revisit the completed Outer Index Dip at 5520 before the resumption of an upward rally.
Buy SnP500Ready to Rally? I think so.
My best trading strategy is to follow the big money—to follow the actions of the market conductor. Right now, I see buying activity in the market and believe this idea has strong potential.
This is a med-term trade, so size your position wisely to avoid overloading your portfolio with a single trade. There are and will be plenty of great opportunities in the market. Give this position the time and space to realize its full potential.
Exact targets are unknown.
The best way to proceed here is by using a trailing stop-loss.
The first Stop Loss is set at 5495.
As the asset rises. move the stop loss higher.
S&P500 Next Key Levels I will be waiting to see if we get some short term buying before continuing down to $5,200 levels.
Waiting for price to reach the $5,800 area and anticipating a strong rejection to continue the bearish trend.
After confirmation of the rejection, I will be looking for simple lower lows, lower highs before entering a sell, preferably around the $5,600 mark.
What are your thoughts on the AMEX:SPY and the THINKMARKETS:USDINDEX in general?
SPX Present Day vs. 21-22 Price PathTVC:SPX
An interesting chart setup into next week (close underneath the broadening pattern), and current price action overlaid with the 2021-2022 price path for an idea of where price might go.
Goodluck!
SP500Bearish ABCD is forming which shows that if this patteren b point is break then sellstop order will be execute and stoploss will be point c and TP is at D Point . This point is very crucial due to lot of conflunces here so if sustain this point it will be a potential reversal point looking for long open position
Rolling Crisis': How one solution tends to feed the next problemThe Cycle of Crisis: How Fed Interventions and Post-Crisis Policies Set the Stage for Future Turbulence
Research suggests that solutions to financial crises—ranging from the Federal Reserve’s early market interventions in 1922 to post-2008 policies—often create conditions that later lead to new crises.
Historical evidence indicates that measures such as deposit insurance, deregulation, and quantitative easing can inadvertently encourage risk-taking, creating a cyclical pattern of stabilization followed by vulnerability.
================================
Historical Context and Analysis
================================
The Fed's Role Since 1922
In 1922, the Federal Reserve pioneered the use of open market operations to manage the money supply.
By purchasing government securities, the Fed aimed to stabilize credit conditions and influence interest rates. This early intervention set the stage for modern monetary policy and demonstrated how central bank actions can have far-reaching effects on market behavior.
Post-Great Depression Reforms and Moral Hazard
Following the Great Depression, a series of reforms restored public confidence:
Glass-Steagall Act (1933): Separated commercial and investment banking to limit excessive risk-taking. Creation of the FDIC: Insured bank deposits, boosting consumer trust. Fed as Lender of Last Resort: Provided emergency liquidity to prevent bank failures.
These measures, while stabilizing, also introduced moral hazard. Banks, knowing they were protected, gradually assumed more risk—a trend that contributed to later financial instability.
Deregulation and the 2008 Crisis
In the 1990s and early 2000s, financial deregulation intensified:
Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (1999): Repealed parts of Glass-Steagall, allowing banks to merge commercial and investment functions. Commodity Futures Modernization Act (2000): Deregulated derivatives markets, increasing the complexity of financial instruments.
Intended to modernize the financial sector, these changes inadvertently enabled risk buildup. The mixing of high-risk investment activities with traditional banking practices contributed to vulnerabilities that eventually led to the 2008 financial meltdown.
Post-2008 Policies and Unintended Consequences
In response to the 2008 crisis, policymakers adopted aggressive measures: Quantitative Easing (QE): The Fed injected liquidity by purchasing large quantities of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities. Low Interest Rates: Keeping rates near zero spurred borrowing and spending. While these policies stabilized markets and averted deeper recession, they also contributed to unintended outcomes such as asset price bubbles and rising inflation, which may sow the seeds for future economic challenges.
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Cyclical Nature of Crisis Responses
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A review of historical episodes reveals a recurring pattern where each crisis response, while effective in the short term, can alter market incentives and build vulnerabilities that later trigger new crises.
Comparative Analysis
1922–1929: Open market operations stabilized credit but contributed to speculative booms. Post-1930s: Safety nets restored confidence but led to increased risk-taking (moral hazard). 1990s–2000s: Deregulation modernized finance yet enabled risk buildup that precipitated the 2008 crisis. Post-2008: QE and low rates stabilized recovery but fueled asset bubbles and inflation.
Lessons for Policymakers
Tailored Responses: Each crisis is unique; policies must account for long-term impacts. Guard Against Moral Hazard: Safety nets should be paired with measures to discourage reckless behavior. Balanced Regulation: Financial innovation requires robust oversight to prevent systemic risks.
Conclusion
From the Fed’s pioneering steps in 1922 to today’s complex economic environment, history shows that every crisis solution has its price.
Emergency measures—though vital for short-term stability—can reshape market incentives and create vulnerabilities that may lead to future crises.
S&P 500 Below 200-Day Average: Double Top Targets 5400I wrote before about the S&P 500 when it was at its peak, showing that "head and shoulders" pattern, and it hit its target. Now, the index has been tradin’ below the 200-day moving average for 10 sessions and is strugglin’ to get back above it. There’s also a "double top" pattern formin’, targetin’ around the 5400 level. Next week’s gonna be big—needs to climb back above that 200-day average, or the odds of more downside are gonna go up. And that 5400 level might not be the final stop, ‘cause there are other patterns that ain’t done yet. Once it hits that level, they’ll complete and signal even lower targets.
SPX Long Term Levels - Jinny Gann FanzJinny Gann Fan Levels are on the Chart possible Trendlines my WAY.
Jinny Gann Fan/Horizontal Lines Works as Support / Resistance.
Important levels for the Big Cycle on the chart.
Support Levels:4926 - 4863 - 4804.88
Resistance Levels :5055 - 5175
Rest of levels on chart ;)
Trade Wisely.
S&P 500 Analysis: Markets Start the Week on a Positive NoteS&P 500 Analysis: Markets Start the Week on a Positive Note
A week ago, while analysing the S&P 500 index chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), we noted that the market had officially entered a correction phase, as the price had declined more than 10% from its February 19 peak. This drop was driven by mounting uncertainty over the potential economic damage caused by the Trump administration’s tariff policies in international trade.
However, this morning, markets are showing signs of optimism following reassuring statements from officials over the weekend.
According to Reuters:
→ Trump announced plans to hold talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, while the U.S. Trade Representative is set to meet his Chinese counterpart this week.
→ The European Union has taken a conciliatory stance, delaying its initial countermeasures against the U.S. until mid-April.
As a result, sentiment appears to have shifted towards optimism, with the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) trading approximately 4% above this month’s low.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)
As noted on 17 March:
→ The price is forming an ascending channel (marked in blue).
→ The fact that the price has reached the lower boundary of the channel suggests that bearish momentum may be fading.
Currently, we are witnessing an attempt at a bullish reversal from the channel’s lower boundary.
From a bearish perspective, resistance may emerge around the 5750 level, where the price has previously reacted (as indicated by the arrows).
From a bullish perspective:
→ Bears have lost control of the 5600 level.
→ A bullish gap at the start of the week indicates a significant shift in market sentiment. If positive news continues to emerge throughout the week, the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) could attempt a rise towards the median of the identified channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Market Maker Buy Model 1h time frame The price produces repetitive actions within three days - accumulation, manipulation, distribution. I expect the movement until a week break of fair value in the form of "volume GAP", and after receiving the model I will look at short positions
Bearish drop?S&P500 (US500) is reacting off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 5,705.61
1st Support: 5,507.00
1st Resistance: 5,814.09
Risk Warning:
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
S&P 500: Bull Run Reversal Underway S&P 500 increased by just 0.08% to close Friday's trade at 5,667 after a four-week decline. It is now down over 7% from February's peak of 6,147. The index has broken its bullish daily structure, signalling the start of a major correction. Critical support at 5,542 must hold to avoid further downside.
If support holds, a temporary rebound could reach targets of 5,662, 5,737, 5,858, and 5,932. Failure to maintain 5,542 would lead to the second stage, targeting 5,151. Given current economic pressures, a four-stage correction resembling past corrections is plausible, potentially reaching as low as 4,564.
"US500 / SPX500" Index CFD Market Heist Plan (Day or Swing)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (5700) then make your move - Bullish profits await!"
however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level.
📌I strongly advise you to set an alert on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs.
Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 2H timeframe (5600) swing trade basis.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 5850 (or) Escape Before the Target
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"US500 / SPX500" Index CFD Market Heist Plan (Swing/Day) is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors.
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As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
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Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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Is the history goign to repeat? SP500Checking the seasonality and the history, looks like SP500 is going to reverse soon (for a short term). I placed my long limit order (but i also entered now) targeting 5900 level.
Good luck
Short s&p500Bear flag
Potential Wave 3 of a decline starting.
Or could be a c wave starting
I suspect it's the start of a wave 5 decline, with wave 3 starting now
Date target 8th of April, price target 5100 area
S&P 500 Market Update – 20 March 2025Following a notable sell-off in US indices, the S&P 500 recently tested levels around 5500, marking its lowest point since September 2024.
Key Levels in Focus:
* Recent market activity has seen 5650 as an important level for traders.
* 5500 has previously been an area of increased investor interest.
* The 5680 level has played a role in past price movements, with some market participants monitoring its potential significance.
Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Why I Took the L (and Feel Great About It)Why I Took the L (and Feel Great About It) | SPX Analysis 24 Mar 2025
The markets are meandering again, and I’m starting to feel like a one-man tribute band for “Brimful of Asha” on repeat. Another grindy week, another re-run of the up-a-bit, down-a-bit SPX drama.
Today’s vibe? Picture those magnificent men in their flying machines… looping up diddely up-up and down diddely down-down with zero destination in sight.
The overnight futures opened with some energy - but landed us smack back into the call wall zone at 5700/5720. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands are pinching tighter than my jeans post-Christmas, confirming what we already know: this market’s stuck in a range.
But here's the thing… I’m not stressing it. I’ve seen this dance before. And I know exactly what I’m waiting for.
---
Deeper Dive Analysis:
Another week, another range, and here I am again – sipping coffee, muttering to myself like a budget oracle, watching SPX push a few points higher and thinking… "Didn’t we just do this yesterday?"
The overnight futures gapped higher, but the market basically landed us right back into the same call wall we’ve been dancing with all week – 5700/5720. It’s like déjà vu… but with less excitement.
And don’t even get me started on the Bollinger Bands. They’re pinching so tightly now you could use them as a tourniquet. Yes, we’re consolidating. Yes, we already knew that. But now it’s like the market is actively mocking us.
🎯 So what’s changed? Nothing.
The plan remains exactly the same:
Wait for a breakout-pullback – either direction.
Don’t force trades.
Stay sharp, but don’t get twitchy.
Friday’s rally? It messed with the last of my bear swings, and instead of dragging the positions out like a bad soap opera, I just let them expire and took the loss. Not because I had to. But because they were irritating me.
Sometimes, the smartest move is not about managing the trade – it’s about managing the trader. I cleared the decks, reset the headspace, and now I’m ready for what comes next.
So here we are:
Bullish trigger is still 5720+
Bearish trigger stays below 5605
Everything in between is just noise.
And yeah, I’m still leaning bearish, but I’m not forcing it. We’ve seen this pattern before – the grind, the stall, the fakeout. And when the real move comes? That’s when I’ll strike.
Until then, it’s back to the charts, back to the tea, and back to waiting with the quiet smugness of someone who knows patience pays better than panic.
Let’s see if today delivers… or if we’re just rolling the same episode again.
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Fun Fact
📢 In 1997, when the VIX dropped below 10, traders called it "nap time."
The market stayed so calm for so long, many option traders took part-time jobs just to stay busy - including one notorious story of a floor trader who moonlighted as a nightclub bouncer.
💡Lesson? When volatility vanishes, don’t force action – prepare for the return of chaos.
