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S&P 500 Index - Standard & Poors 500 (SPX)S&P 500 Index - Standard & Poors 500 (SPX)S&P 500 Index - Standard & Poors 500 (SPX)

S&P 500 Index - Standard & Poors 500 (SPX)

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The world is going crazy , who's to blame ?Unless you have been hiding in the rocks, most people would know what President Trump has done to the world at large. The social media is full of half truth, fake news and sensational news, to the advantage/motives of certain groups of people. That is why you always read it with a large dosage of salt, laugh it off and do your own critical thinking. I know is hard, afterall, this has not happened before, at least not in the presidency of US government thus far. Most of us feel like stepping onto quick sand, a wrong move could land you much deeper than you were previously. Seeing your portfolio growing from nice chunks of profits to bloody red , oh my God ! Yes, on hindsight, we wish we could have listened to the wise guru, Warren Buffett. Let's not get too far ahead and stay calm in this turmoil, volatile time. Deep breath........ And definitely do not lose sleep over money, health and family is more important ! Here, in the SPX 500 index, we are at a precarious position. After the 90 days pause, the market rally up but the fear remains and yesterday market proves itself. So, the first line of defence is the bullish trend line. If this breaks, then we are heading to the yellow support line. Now, this is no ordinary line, it is the weekly 200EMA indicator where in the past, each time it hits this level, the price action bounces up. Could President Trump knows TA, haha? Timing is near perfect ! Stay calm everyone ! Again, do not use margin to trade/invest no matter how attractive the market looks to you or you received a good tip from a friend. Stay with money you can afford to lose.
SP:SPX
by dchua1969
Update on my thoughts on long term fibs thesis I wanted to give an overview update for those who've followed my macro thesis over the years. I've used various different things to support it but when it's come to my thoughts as to when the idea has failed I've always thought the only thing I really use for that is the big 4.23' of the 2008 crash. Since 2019 I've used the thesis big fib levels will foretell big moves in SPX, and it's worked really well. Inside the theory of trend formation through a fib swing I have been using, the 4.23 is the final boss. It's the biggest most important swing and at it everything is high stakes. 4.23 rejections can lead to 1.27 retracements. In the context of this chart, that would be a depression style move. When this area was first hit in 2022 it made the high there. One of my known for 4.23's is they'll often bluff and then have some sort of spike out. So if the 4.23 is actionable, we'd be in the end game now. Trying to work out exactly how much spike tolerance is very difficult but in the bear thesis this trading above the 4.23 should turn into a strong rejection. I'm talking conditions where weekly charts look like the 4 hour charts did in the original 10% break. What would happen on a 4.23 reversal would be unspeakably bad with the size of these swings, and this 4.23 principle can be found time and time again marking the end of extreme moves (both up moves and crashes). That's a concerning thing. If there's even a 5% chance of that happening I feel I have to think about it. Based on the odds of the fibs, the odds would be higher. It'd be fair to say thinking a fib can affect such big things is irrational. But it would be honest to accept to ignore the fact they actually have right in front of us is all the more irrational. But the 4.23 might break! It's difficult for me to tell you the specific price at which I'd consider the 4.23 to have been broken but I can tell you the idea that it might break is something I deeply consider- because if that is going to happen, my bear thesis would never be correct inside a workable time/price move. This isn't a "Right eventually" sort of thing. The patterns have expectations. If the 4.23 is not a top, then the plan totally changes. Because I know from my intraday / week trading that I really love to be fading 4.23s and 4.23 spikes regularly but if and when they fail the most exceptional of things happen. These are not all that notable intraday to anyone other than levels traders, but what if the same concept scaled up - I wondered. I wondered this a while ago and noticed it was something I'd never really checked. As it happened, all the 4.23s I looked at in indices reversed. Initially I found it tricky to find them but then I noticed the highest probability place to find them was heading into bubbles. And this makes me super wary of the fact my bear thesis could be spectacularly wrong. Because around about this zone Nasdaq was getting into a 4.23 - and this looked quite bubble-like. If I'd seen this in real time in the 4.23, I'd have thought that worth a fade. 1998. The Nasdaq did not make a high in 1998! 1998 was in fact a rather bad time to have a persistent bear thesis. But you could have made money. For a while there was a flux. During this you could have made some money. You'd just have to know when to stop doing that. Inside a thesis such as this, when there is a drop you always have to consider we might be in a spot something like this. From this move Nasdaq would go into a rally that literally changes the perspective of the chart. As you click through bar by bar the previous crash bars become hard to see. Nothing but up. Then sideways. Nothing but up. Then we're inside of the topping zone. If you didn't decide before the fact, where do you drop the bear thesis there? It's tough. Because the rally section would seem like a blow off. Then we go sideways. Which feels like the steam has ran out. Then we go into the real blow off. Where to close your short would be handled for you if you didn't - but it's hard to know when you'd flip bull there. For me, at least. Because I'd want to buy a crash move. And there really are not all that many of them. My style of trading is optimised for trading reversals (either of corrections or absolute) and steady and persistent pullback-less trends are trickier for me. I need to have a really good idea of where I'd want to switch to that style and my failure conditions (because all that momentum trading with no stops stuff isn't for me - I could not sleep at night - being someone who's benefited from so many major trend reversals and seeing how fast they happen). Looking through different examples of 4.23 breaks (which really are mostly found before bubble like moves or crashes if inverted) I have come to conclusion that the best thing to have done would have probably been to buy the low of the last crash before the bubble. Just buy the low before the bubble. That's it. Thanks for reading! Of course, on a more practical level - we actually have to try to do that. Now...if the break was coming, we'd maybe actually be AT that spot. I think to give the bearish 4.23 thesis its full fair chance we have to accept some sort of stop running above this recent high. Stuff like that is totally fail game. Even something a bit more spikey would be fine if it rejected. But if we trend up here, break highs and then continue to trend up, I really do think that would be the conditions where I would stop generating bear short levels. I'd switch my methods to generating bear risk areas but main using these for bullish trail/breakout decisions. I first came into indices in 2019 with my bear thesis on SPX. Which was spectacularly half right. But I'd forecast a two leg crash. Fortunately enough for me, when the high was broken I became disinterested in SPX and went back to Forex. Only setting an alert for the next big level, which triggered 2021. This is when I setup the "HoleyProfit" username. This period of time has been the best time to be a bear inside of my trading lifetime. But I believe if we're not somewhere deep inside the end game for this bull market we could head into conditions where if you trade flawlessly as a bear you can perhaps scrape breakeven eventually. Which are not good times to be a bear. They'd be good times to be a bull. If I don't think about this, we could have a move that looks like an obvious blow off in SPX to me. And ends up looking like this. Which I don't want to be short into. And realistically I'm not. I'd hit stops well before any of that madness affected me. But I don't want anyone who's followed my ideas and seen these having the big previous successes thinking it's a slam dunk sort of thing. I do believe if my bear thesis failed it would be spectacularly. I believe we're in a bubble. Whether we're late or mid bubble I am open minded to. Being mid bubble and being aware of it would be INCREDIBLE. Some people think I am determined to be a bear just because I want to be. I'd be happy with massively awesome markets. A trend one way or the other pay just as much to me. It's better to make money in conditions your broker and bank are not going out of business. I really don't mind being bullish. It's just sketchy doing it at major resistance levels with all the other weird confluences (like interest rate patterns etc). We are somewhat close to crux in this thesis. Hopefully you can easily understand how it's not practical to put a price on specifically but I do want to note that while I have plans to short different bull trap levels / spike outs on this rally - we are getting the point where my net thesis may be proven wrong on the large reversal. If that happens, my option and style will be become polar opposite. For me to continue to be bearish above the 4.23 would be me just wandering off into a jungle of random for trying to have an overall plan. And in fact, for me to not switch my bias from bear to hyper bullish on a 4.23 would be intellectually dishonest and directly fading the edges that the original idea bet on. Markets may make big reversals at major resistances, but if they break- can be much different. I wanted to be clear and thorough on this while while are still generally low. While I've discussed some different bear plans into a rally, it is also one of my considerations that this rally could end up spelling out the end of my bear thesis if we made new highs and were persistent. The net bear thesis will be right or wrong inside a specific zone. That zone is big and tricky to define, but it's specific. Specific in the fact that I'm saying we're specifically in that zone. There's potentially for setups that could take a lot of time to complete, but in terms of the zone and conditions what's accepted is getting narrower and narrower. It is entirely placeable within the next 6 months my entire macro swing bias will have changed. Or this might all just be the bull trap taking. We'll see how it goes.
SP:SPX
by holeyprofit
4
SP500: Optimism in the markets !! No Fear !!Mr. Trump MANIPULATES THE WORLD as he pleases, and WE AS ANALYSTS have to BE COLD and be VERY ATTENTIVE to the news MORE THAN EVER!! And of course, NO FEAR. --> What does the SP500 and the rest of the indices and stocks look like? From my point of view, yesterday's news of granting a 90-DAY TRUCE on tariffs GIVES US THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSIDES for at least the next 2 months (ALWAYS with Trump's permission). Furthermore, we've also learned that US inflation fell to 2.4% in March, and the core rate to 2.8%, below expectations, which is VERY GOOD for the markets. With this data and the SHARP FALLS accumulated so far this year!!, UPSIDES ARE COMING!! Yesterday, the indices rose by nearly 10%, and it's normal for them to be falling by 5% today. If we observe the H1 chart above, the price has fallen to the 50% Fibonacci zone, meaning we are already in a good entry zone. --> We can do 2 things: When the price in lower timeframes (M15 chart below) shows us a bullish signal (Bull), make the long entry. Go long in the zone between the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci (current zone). -------------------------------------------------------------------- Strategy to follow: ENTRY: We will open 2 long positions when the price enters the Fibonacci zone (50% - 61.8%) or when a lower timeframe chart gives us the bullish signal (Bull). POSITION 1 (TP1): We close the first position in the 5,490 zone (+5.8%) --> Stop Loss at 4,900 (-3.5%). POSITION 2 (TP2): We open a Trailing Stop type position. --> Initial dynamic Stop Loss at (-3.5%) (coinciding with the 4,900 of position 1). --> We modify the dynamic Stop Loss to (-1%) when the price reaches TP1 (5,490). SETUP CLARIFICATIONS *** How to know which 2 long positions to open? Let's take an example: If we want to invest 2,000 euros in the stock, we divide that amount by 2, and instead of opening 1 position of 2,000, we will open 2 positions of 1,000 each. *** What is a Trailing Stop? A Trailing Stop allows a trade to continue gaining value when the market price moves in a favorable direction, but automatically closes the trade if the market price suddenly moves in an unfavorable direction by 1 a determined distance. That determined distance is the dynamic Stop Loss. --> Example: If the dynamic Stop Loss is at -1%, it means that if the price falls by -1%, the position will close. If the price rises, the Stop Loss also rises to maintain that -1% on the upside, therefore, the risk becomes lower and lower until the position becomes profitable. This way, very solid and stable trends in the price can be taken advantage of, maximizing profits
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by jmesado
S&P500 Still a Short: Be mindful of Alternate CountI discuss how the additional wave up could have a larger implication on the entire outlook of S&P500 and could cause a re-labelling of the entire wave structure. What we want to see in order to keep our primary count, is a breakdown below the low of where I plotted wave 1 of C. That is, below 5119.8. But no matter the primary count or the alternate count, it is still a short opportunity. But there is an implication on the Take Profit target.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by yuchaosng
Could See a Huge Pop in a Bull Trap I think the odds of this turning into a spectacular short are unusually high for indices but even if so there could be some massive stop gunning to come first. I've a big bearish bias into a rip but it would likely be exceptional rally if I have the idea right. Picked up some longs targeting 5800. Ideally looking to make some profit and use it to bankroll the short attempt. Would dump these quite quickly if structure broke. ATR is too big to mess about.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by holeyprofit
1
Warning: what can save us from a collapse: must read.⚠️This analysis isn’t purely chart-based, but in this macro environment, understanding the bigger picture is essential for predicting market movements. Hopefully, TradingView will allow this idea so that everyone can read it. What Can Save Us? Before looking for a solution, we must first acknowledge the problem—and then determine if and when a resolution is coming. 1. Trump’s Tariffs & Policies: A Market Shock Trump’s economic strategy marks a radical departure from the policies of the past 30 years. However, previous administrations weakened U.S. global influence, shifting power in favor of China. Since Trump's motto is "Make America Great Again", serious changes are inevitable. Until investors fully grasp these policies, uncertainty will persist. Let’s break down the key areas of impact and Trump’s expected responses: 2.Monetary Policy & The Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve (FED) and Jerome Powell are not aligned with the White House. Powell is sticking to his monetary policy approach, but Trump needs 0% interest rates to implement his vision. Markets hate uncertainty, and this is fueling volatility. 🔴 Trump's Response: Expect a bombshell move—Trump will fire Jerome Powell and replace him with a Fed chairman who supports rate cuts to 0%. This will cause short-term chaos but ultimately fuel a massive market rally as: ✔️ The housing market recovers ✔️ Liquidity surges ✔️ Stocks skyrocket 3.U.S. Dependence on China & Russia for Raw Materials The U.S. imports essential resources from China and Russia, making it vulnerable. The BRICS alliance is strengthening, further threatening U.S. dominance. 🔴 Trump's Response: Trump has openly expressed interest in acquiring Greenland, citing its rich natural resources. He will take it by military force if necessary, positioning the U.S. as a raw material powerhouse on par with Russia. 4.Lost Allies: Canada, Mexico & South America Canada is aligning with Europe Mexico & South America are leaning towards BRICS 🔴 Trump's Response: To counter this: Canada will be pressured into rejoining a U.S.-led trade bloc—or face potential annexation. South American economies will be crippled by tariffs, forcing them to reintegrate under U.S. influence. 5.Geopolitical Conflicts: Middle East & Ukraine Iran is aligned with Russia & China Ukraine relies on Europe (France, UK, EU), rather than the U.S. The U.S. is not benefiting from these wars 🔴 Trump's Response: If Zelensky continues to align with Europe, Trump may order a full-scale U.S. bombing of Ukraine, flatten Kyiv, eliminate Zelensky live on TikTok, and then split Ukraine with Russia. This move would: ✔️ Strengthen U.S.-Russia relations ✔️ Secure a deal on Greenland ✔️ Humble Europe 6.Conclusion: A Global Power Shift Expect a period of chaos and fear. However, what investors must understand is that Trump is 100% serious about these moves—and he will execute them regardless of global opinion. If Trump’s strategy works: ✅ The U.S. will regain dominance ✅ Markets will rally hard ✅ Confidence in the U.S. economy will be restored If Trump fails: 🚨 A prolonged economic downturn (15-20 years of stagflation) 🚨 U.S. & Europe suffer major losses 🚨 Best move? Relocate to Asia or the Middle East before the crash. So, even if Trump’s policies seem insane, the best-case scenario is that he succeeds. 💡 DYOR (Do Your Own Research) #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trump #MAGA #Geopolitics #StockMarket #SPX500 #Trading #Investing #Economy #FederalReserve #RateCuts
FX:SPX500
by CryptoNikkoid
7
SPX....An interestng observation!10/4/25 spx....an interesting observation.. index has been travelling between the blue median which is a very strong support and the red median which is a very strong resistance.............this travel started s0me time in 2009....and is still ongoing! only during 2008/2009 lehman collapse and 2020 covid did the index go below the blue median.... will it slip the blue median again or move north again to retest the red median? only time will tell.. but we have the contours to monitor!
SP:SPX
by Nattyshotstocks
S&P500: Trump's 90-day tariff pause just saved the day??S&P500 is having so far a +9.50% rise from today's low as even though Trump announced a 125% raise to China tariffs, he lowered and paused tariffs for 90 days to all countries that contacted the U.S. for negotiation. The 1D technical outlook is about to get neutral (RSI = 42.537, MACD = -181.510, ADX = 39.036) as the rebound is taking place at the HL bottom of the Bullish Megaphone, while the 1W MA200 stayed intact. A similar Megaphone was last seen during the previous 2018 Trade War and was completed with the COVID crash that started an abnormal rally to new ATH to correct the equally abnormal crash. Needless to say, it was based on quick rate cuts but the situation isn't all that different today. Trump's stance towards negotiating, coupled with highly anticipated rate cuts, can deliver an equally abnormal rally now. The previous HH of the Bullish Megaphone hit the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. This time if the rally extends to the end of the year, targeting the 1.5 - 1.618 Fibonacci Zone would be considered fair (TP = 6,900). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:SPXLong
by InvestingScope
S&P 500 Index Under Pressure – Another -10% Drop Incoming?Today, I want to analyze the S&P 500 Index ( FOREXCOM:SPX500 ) for you. This index is one of the most important indices in the US stock market , which has been determining the direction of parallel financial markets such as crypto and especially Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) for the past few days, so an analysis of this index can be important for us. The S&P 500 Index started to fall after Donald Trump imposed new tariffs on countries around the world, which was like a coronavirus . The question is whether this fall is temporary or will continue . To answer this question, we need to consider many parameters, but if we look at the sds chart from a technical analysis chart , we can expect a further decline . The S&P 500 Index is moving near the Resistance zone($5,284-$5,095) and is completing a pullback . It also lost its important Uptrend lines last week, which is not good news for the S&P 500 Index and US stocks . From an Elliott wave theory , the S&P 500 IndexS&P looks like it has completed the main wave 4 , and we should expect the next decline(-10%) . I expect the S&P 500 Index to attack the Heavy Support zone($4,820-$4,530) at least once more. The area where we can expect the S&P 500 Index to pull back is the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . What do you think? Will the S&P 500 Index continue its downward trend, or was this decline temporary? Note: If the S&P 500 Index touches $5,408, we can expect further Pumps. Note: There is a possibility of a Bear Trap near the Heavy Support zone($4,820-$4,530) and PRZ. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD),4-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by pejman_zwin
26
If SPX Was to Make a Slow Topping PatternI've been super bearish indices for a while but heading into the 5000 area in SPX I am becoming increasingly bullish. I think in the extremely bearish setup we bounce to 5500 and if we are actually making a big major top, then it's viable we swipe at the highs a few times. Liquidity ... and all that. This could potentially be a long time of choppy action around the topping zone. If that's going to happen there's epic bear trades coming in the future but to prevent from becoming exhausted as a bear before they happened - you'd be wanting to bank in the rally. Have plans to pick up an assortment of bets on a new high being made within 3 months somewhere a little under 5100. And picking p spot longs at some point which I can trail stops on and wait to see if the bull trap levels fail. I do think at the very least the min risk bears have into 5000 is a 10% bull trap. I'd be very careful as a bear now.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by holeyprofit
1
Buckle Up for the Next Part of the Huffy CycleAs everyone knows, indices move on a predictable 4 month cycle - known as the "Huffy cycle", and this is programmatically built into markets are Donald Trump switches from being "Huffy" (Down moves) to "Less Huffy" (Parabolic organic growth moves). Donald has been huffy lately ... so we ALL KNOW what comes next ...! Are you mentally prepared for the next glorious breakout of the Huffy cycle? I'm sure everyone has noticed the 4 month huffy cycle which can be extensively studied, understood and used to forecast the future flawlessly because if we look at markets over 12 months we can see it looks a little bit kinda like a pattern - so long as you just ignore or remove the parts that are not a pattern. Which is how market cycles work. If you see something a few times, you can be sure it will happen again forever. And if it doesn't you can be sure at worst it can only go down 70% and then it's probably a buy from there. So the huffy cycle is basically risk free, if you look at it in the right way. "But what about all the the things happening" I hear you ask. Lol. NGMI! If you're too stupid to understand the huffy cycle, that's your problem. Not mine! HFSP. Now, of course we all know SPX is not where near gambley for us to generate our birth right generational wealth from the markets. It could take literally YEARS to make money in SPX. Who has time for that? Of course, we want to be looking at the most stupid and speculative things we can - because those are the ones the savvy investors are buying. That's right folks .... "Squeeze season" is upon us. It's been 4 years since we seen anything make any truly irrational hyper parabolic moves in stocks. As we all know, this is too long. Stonks are not allowed to go this long without there being a squeeze cycle. Some doomers out there are even saying squeeze season has been cancelled (lmao ok boomer) - but we know the truth. Squeeze season has just BEEN DELAYED and it being delayed actually means it will just be BIGGER THAN EVER! I don't really have any logic or ideas to back up why it was delayed and why this means it will be an even bigger move, but if I say the word "Whales" I think that covers everything. There are some idiots who are sceptical of the huffy cycle, but I am only writing my post for the future billionaires who are not too bothered about checking the details. And we all know what comes next!!! WGMI, fam.
SP:SPXLong
by holeyprofit
27
S&P 500 Index vs PresidentIn this layout you can see how the S&P has been performed on each presidency. Presidency terms, Obama 1st term: after the financial recession, the index was trying to recover and we saw falls from 16 to 21%, market went up 83%. Obama 2nd term: the index saw falls from 10 to 15%, Market went up 50%. Trump 1st Term: the index saw falls 3 big times 11, 21 and 34% Market went up 68%. Biden 1st Term: the index saw falls 27% and 10%, Market went up 55%. Trump 2nd Term: we are in the 1st fall 21% not sure if it will continue going down. The price wants to get closer to the 200MA every time Fibonacci levels, we are on 0.5, we still have 2 more levels down so these 3 levels could be a good entry point 😊
SP:SPX
by JorgeMz10
1