$SPX BOOOM Perfectly Nailed the Bottom in last nights video
5505/5485 Bull put spreads were the money play today on that drop. And of course that would have been the place to go long on the day.
SPXM trade ideas
Strong Buying Zone with Confident The Green 4h Zone Acts as Strong Buying Zone.
The Blue Zone POC/IC (Point Of Interest or Institutional Candle) is weak Support now since it been tested before.
The Fresh Zone is the Green 4h which acts as Decent Support Zone.
We have two Scenarios indicating Buyers step in Strongly Within Green Buying Zone:
Scenarios One: strong buying volume reversal Candle.
Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of green Buying Zone.
Both indicate Buyers Stepping in strongly.
Once One Showed Up a safe entry would be 50% Fibo from the buying Candle at 1h TF.
Regards,
Take care.
Opening (IRA): SPX May 16th 5130/5160/5850/5880 Iron Condor... for a 10.20 credit.
Comments: High IVR/IV >21. Hesitant to add more long delta here, so going delta neutral in SPX and structuring the trade such that I receive one-third the width of the wings (30) in credit.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 19.80
Max Profit: 10.20
ROC at Max: 51.52%
50% Max: 5.10
ROC at 50% Max: 25.8%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, rolling down oppositional side on side test, but won't hesitate to take profit quickly if IV crushes in dramatically post "Liberation Day."
Weekly Forex Outlook Sun.March.31.2025 - Fri.April.4.2025Like and Comments would be appreciated :D Not Financial Advice, Just my outlook/opinion
Tweet and ideaYou can use tweet and idea on ideas. For example, you can use Elon Musk tweets and ideas GameStop’s Bitcoin Bet Fails to Wow Traders.
Tweet and ideaYou can use tweet and idea on ideas. For example, you can use Elon Musk tweets and ideas GameStop’s Bitcoin Bet Fails to Wow Traders.
Aggressive 0.16 Delta start - 0 DTE SPX Call Spread-5590 +5595
Normally I don't do Sell Side at such a high Delta, but SPX is crashing hard, technicals are hard to deny atm, taking advantage. Short term 0 DTE trade.
15% gain in premium.
S&P500 INTRADAY down 1% in pre market tradingS&P 500 futures are down 1%, with global markets falling on US tariff concerns and tech weakness (Nasdaq 100 -1.4%, Nvidia & Tesla -3% premarket). The S&P 500 is down 5.1% for Q1, its worst quarter since 2022, as uncertainty over Trump’s tariff plans (starting April 2) and a potential Russian oil ban weigh on sentiment.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5711
Resistance Level 2: 5788
Resistance Level 3: 5863
Support Level 1: 5487
Support Level 2: 5412
Support Level 3: 5262
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Bear Hedge Trigger Hit - It’s Risk-Off This WeekBear Hedge Trigger Hit - It’s Risk-Off This Week | SPX Analysis 31 Mar 2025
Well, it’s officially the start of a new week... and the end of the month. A time when markets often go a bit boing-boing as portfolio managers do their monthly “window dressing.” But let’s not get distracted by the glitter - Friday’s price action just ripped the rug out from under the bulls.
My SPX slippers barely had time to get comfy before I was forced to swap them for spiked bear boots. Again.
Friday’s break through my bear hedge trigger flipped the script, and now I’m locked into bear mode until the charts convince me otherwise. And right now? They’re not even trying.
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Bear Flag Breakdown: What the Charts Are Screaming 🐻
Let’s break it down trader-to-trader...
Friday’s move confirmed the break of a textbook bear flag.
My target for this bear swing now sits at 5140, and unless we break above 5700, the bear case remains fully intact.
Short-term? I'm bearish through 5500, watching 5555 as a gamma inflection point which could accelerate the bear move.
Here’s what makes this particularly spicy:
Overnight futures are down nearly 1% - not the Monday morning bounce you’d expect if bulls were in charge.
GEX is stacked with puts - if we breach 5555, market makers may accelerate the drop by hedging and reducing positive gamma exposure.
Momentum is gaining. And it feels like we’ve seen this film before...
🎞️ Rewind to 2022…
Remember that slow grind lower in 2022 where every bounce got sold, and traders kept trying to “buy the dip” only to get steamrolled?
Yeah. This move is shaping up the same way.
A pattern break. A bearish continuation. And if we follow the 2022 script... buckle up. The bears may just be getting started, and the rest of the year could get nasty.
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Expert Insights: Avoid These Bear Market Mistakes
🔻 Mistake #1: Trading What You Hope Will Happen
Stop “buying the dip” because you want it to bounce. Trade what’s in front of you.
🔻 Mistake #2: Using the Wrong System for This Environment
Bullish systems don’t work in bear trends. You need a mechanical system that thrives on volatility (like mine).
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Fun Fact
In 2018, the S&P 500 plunged nearly 20% in December alone, marking one of the worst year-end sell-offs in history. The culprit? A mix of Fed tightening and market-wide panic.
🧐 Fast forward to today… and while the catalyst may differ, market structure patterns have a funny way of rhyming, don’t they?
SPX500 Long at 55301. All timeframes are massively oversold due to the huge sell-off on Friday night
2. It is the start of the week, and it opened at the low, which tends to mean there would be some strength to go up
3. Unfortunately, I cannot check if there is a harmonic pattern due to technical difficulties.
4. This is at excellent support as it is at the year low
5. There is a lot of divergence due to this not being a long consolidation try to exit at M15 overbought
6. Stop loss below 5500
SPY divergenceI see a lot of divergence in the SPY.
Looks like a push into trend-line support for me then we add tier 3 buys.
#SPX - 31 MarWas wrong on the move on Friday, as market trended down.
Need a bullish daily candle to negate this down move. Pullback to 5638/68 is a possible short for a move lower.
spx slip up Let me start by saying SPX is my baby—this market gave me vision and taught me what I now call Cerberus. It pains me deeply to see such sloppy price engineering lately. These folks have gotten real careless with their price delivery, and that sloppiness is starting to spill into the broader global market.
However, it's clear from the Thursday error that they aren't planning to completely collapse the market just yet—just wanted to instill some pain and signal to everyone it's time to gear up for the long road ahead. Here's what's about to go down, so pay close attention:
Price will sweep below the low of 3.10.25, trigger a profit-booking event, and restore some hope in the market since it'll mark the second leg of the three-drive pattern currently forming. Now, let me flex real quick: SPX WILL HIT THE 4950 AREA BEFORE MAY 2026—mark my words.
Now, back to tradable events:
Mark 5680 as your sell level.
Price will accumulate around the 5480-5460 range, and the real end of this bounce comes at 5350.
Once these trades manifest, your buy-side target is 5790.
Again, don't be the fool who tries to swing-trade buy ideas before these key levels get hit. You've been warned.
US500 (S&P 500 ) INDEX TRADE IDEA 1 APRIL 2025Based on technical analysis, the US500 (S&P 500) has broken below its long-term ascending channel, signaling a potential trend reversal or deeper correction. The bearish momentum is evident as the price has closed below the lower trendline, and a pullback to the 5,558 - 5,794 supply zone could provide a shorting opportunity. This area aligns with previous structural resistance, making it a key level for institutional sellers. If price action confirms rejection within this zone, a sell setup targeting 5,279, 5,157, and ultimately 4,803 could be viable. The trade remains invalid if price breaks above 5,860, as this would indicate a shift in market sentiment.
From a fundamental perspective, growing concerns over US-China tariff tensions could pressure corporate earnings and drive further downside. Additionally, economic slowdown indicators, including weakening consumer spending and rising corporate debt, are weighing on investor sentiment. The upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report in April 2025 will be a key event to watch; a strong labor market report may keep the Federal Reserve on a hawkish stance, leading to further stock market declines, while a weak report could reinforce recession fears. Given these factors, a short position remains favorable as long as the market respects the supply zone resistance. However, traders should remain cautious of unexpected shifts in monetary policy or geopolitical developments that could impact overall market direction.
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 24.3-28.3 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 11th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which began with the pivot forecast on January 13. We are in the second phase, which appears bearish by all indications. This is a significant bear market completing the overdue 50-week and 4-year cycles. Target levels are outlined in my previous posts. My preliminary timeline projections for the base cycle completion were mentioned in the previous post.
⚠️ The extreme forecast on March 24 – the midpoint of retrograde Mercury – turned the market downward after a small bullish correction. This was anticipated last week. The market lacked the strength even to reach the resistance level at 5850. A short position has been opened. The next extreme forecast is April 7.
S&P 500 Technical Breakdown – Bearish Momentum Building?Looking at this SPX Daily Chart, we’re seeing some clear signs of weakness in the market.
🔹 Breakdown from the Rising Channel – After months of uptrend, SPX has broken below its previous rising channel, signaling potential downside ahead.
🔹 Failed Recovery Attempt – The recent bounce formed a bear flag (highlighted in brown), but today’s sharp drop indicates that the relief rally has been rejected.
🔹 Key Fibonacci Levels in Play –
The 0.382 Fib retracement was acting as support, but price has now slipped below it.
Next key level: The 0.5 Fib (around 5,550) and the 0.618 Fib (near 5,438) could act as crucial support zones.
A deeper retracement to 4,982 (0.786 Fib) isn't out of the question if selling pressure accelerates.
🔹 Moving Averages & Volume –
The price is now under the 200-day moving average (blue line), which is typically a bearish signal if confirmed.
Volume has been increasing on red days, hinting at stronger selling conviction.
🔹 Support & Resistance Zones –
Resistance: ~5,822 (recent bounce level) and ~6,097 (previous high)
Support: ~5,402 and ~4,982 if selling intensifies.
🚨 Final Thoughts: The technical structure is turning bearish, and if the S&P 500 doesn’t reclaim key levels soon, further downside could be on the horizon. Bulls need to step in fast to avoid a deeper correction.
My last warning To Donald Trump and Americansif you Attack Iran's infrastructure, America enters a shitty situation that will last for not years but for decades. you can fix the problem by supporting the Iran's King Reza Pahlavi and the people and the mullahs will be overthrown easily but you are Unknowingly doing it in a very wrong way, if you do it Stockholm syndrome will happen.
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Price has ping on the channel edges. I hope it becomes just a simple correction but Americans ego is is in line with technicals.
SPX Update - DowntrendThe S&P 500 (SPX) is showing signs of a downward trend, aligning with the 123 wave target around 5220. This critical area could offer insights into the next potential moves in the market.
US500US500 Price Action Analysis and Trade Setups (March 28, 2025)
Price Action Summary:
Weekly Chart: Long-term uptrend intact, but recent rejection near 6,200 signals a medium-term correction.
Daily Chart: Price is consolidating near 5,600 after a sharp drop from highs. Bearish momentum persists.
4H Chart: Lower highs and lower lows confirm short-term bearish bias. Resistance at 5,750 is holding.
1H Chart: Intraday range between 5,550 and 5,750. Price struggling to break higher.
Trade of the Day (Day Trading Setup)
Short Setup:
Entry: 5,700 after rejection at resistance
Stop Loss: 5,770
Take Profit:
TP1: 5,620
TP2: 5,550
Reason: Short-term bearish structure with resistance holding at 5,750.
Swing Trading Setup
Short Setup:
Entry: Below 5,550 after daily close confirmation
Stop Loss: 5,650
Take Profit:
TP1: 5,300
TP2: 5,100
Gold not looking good I thinkI do not think gold looks good, It is falling from the Head and Shoulder inverted patter.
#SPX - 28 MarI was bearish SPX yesterday and the PZ held the rallies and price just sold down to new lows.
Overall, price is still in consolidation and the flush to new lows could see another move back to the highs of yesterday. Looking for an up from here.
3/27/2025 SPY outlook_bearishHello traders,
Hope you’re doing well in this choppy market. I initially expected a squeeze after rebounding from the 5500 area, but that didn’t happen. Instead, the 200 SMA acted as resistance, forming a bear flag over the last few trading days. I expect a break below the bear flag support line, leading to a move toward the 5100 area.
I’m not trading SPY directly, but since most stocks follow SPY these days, I wanted to share my outlook. Buying UVXY could be a good option.
May the trend be with you.
AP
