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KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO.,LTD.KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO.,LTD.KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO.,LTD.

KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO.,LTD.

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600519 trade ideas

How to read the message side? ——My road as a financial analystEvery day, there are many fake articles that spread different positions, both true and exaggerated. In order to judge valuable information from them, we need to have certain critical thinking. Then I will share three dimensions for your reference. In the period when Kweichow Moutai was heavily bearish by market opinion, I saw an article talking about the risks of Kweichow Moutai, and many views in the article could not withstand scrutiny. Examples are as follows: (1) Confusion of concepts. The article points out that Kweichow Moutai's diversified strategy of entering real estate, airport, beer and wine has huge risks, and I fully agree with it. However, these investment projects are affiliated with Moutai Group and have nothing to do with the joint-stock company. Generally speaking, "Kweichow Moutai" refers to the listed joint-stock company, and the holding group company is called "Moutai Group". Kweichow Moutai only produces liquor, not other industries. Obviously, the author confused Moutai Group with Kweichow Moutai. (2) Logic error. I have a different opinion on the viewpoint of "unreasonable high price caused by monopoly damages the interests of consumers" in the section of "Prominent abuses of industry monopoly". Maotai is not daily necessities, and monopoly is market monopoly and not administrative monopoly. There are dozens of well-known baijiu brands, but the government doesn't force people to buy Maotai or restrict them from buying other brands. The price of Moutai liquor is determined by the market. If manufacturers are willing to sell and consumers are willing to buy, the price is not "unreasonable". As long as manufacturers do not shoddy or use other fraudulent means, there is no "damage to the interests of consumers" said. (3) Subjective imagination. "Shortening the brewing time of baijiu is a way to quickly increase production," reads the section on "Increasing the risk of quality degradation." I think it's subjective to make such an assumption without evidence or an adequate chain of clues. Part from Why I Gave up technology Analysis
SSE:600519Short
by Haoge
5
JICPT| Kweichow Moutai reached attractive buy level as expectedHello everyone. This is a follow-up post of my published idea titled 'Kweichow Moutai potential buying level of 1550' on July 28th. Back then, price was CNY 1768 per share. I guess a lot of Chinese investors doubted if it can fell to that level. Now it sat at CNY 1550 and a lot of investors started to concern if there is much room to the downside. In my opinion, the valuation became really attractive for me, though I observed huge sell orders from foreign institutions via the HK and Shanghai connect scheme. On the daily chart, definitely it's still downtrend with no sign of reversal yet. On the weekly chart, it sat at a beautiful sweet spot place. I will keep an eye on this level if any reversal pattern formed on the daily. It'll be a really nice place to buy. When everybody is scared and bearish on a particular stock, bullish buyers should wake up and have a further check. Give me a like if you're with me.
SSE:600519Long
by JICPT
JICPT| Kweichow Moutai potential buying level of 1550Kweichow Moutai is the icon of Chinese stocks. With gross margin of 90% plus, It's been served as the deep value investor's must-have holdings. In addition, the share of Moutai is the most expensive one in domestic Chinese market. However, 2021 is not the year of Moutai. The price has dropped by approximately 37% from around 2630 created in Feb. From the valuation perspective, it fell into the reasonable zone which attracted me. I bought Chinese wine ETF and plan to add more in the next future. From the weekly chart, I identified the level of CNY 1550 be attractive with abcd pattern combined with moving average line. I won't save my bullet if it drops to that level. Moutai is a great company. I think it has very high probability to hit CNY 3000 within the next 2 years. So the annual return is close to 50%. What's your opinion? Give me a like if you're with me.
SSE:600519Long
by JICPT
Moutai on the way to retest 1800 key levelKweichow Moutai is China's most valuable firm outside of the tech industry. It's like the barometer of the market. When Moutai is up, the broad Chinese index will very likely be up. After Chinese New Year, Moutai has been down almost 30% and likely further drop to key level of 1800 where we get several reasons to buy, e.g. flip & demand zone. The attractive price for me is 1500, though I don't know if market will give me the opportunity. With a robust 20%+ yoy growth and room to increase its price, I'm very bullish on Moutai.
SSE:600519Short
by JICPT