SUGAR trade ideas
Sugar SellAs I was taking another look at Sugar, I realized that a bull flag (my previous analysis) is now out of the question and a symmetrical triangle has now broken down. The initial measured move target was hit about a week after the breakdown occurred and price has just pulled back to a horizontal resistance area just below the triangle. This area has now been rejected twice by two shooting starish candles and I'm now short. My target is just above the larger expanding triangle where the previous leg up stemmed from.
Sugar Bull FlagAfter breaking out of an expanding triangle (not shown on chart), Sugar has had a massive run to the upside. A bull flag pattern has formed and pricehas just testedand rejected flag support along with a horizontal support level. I like this instrument to upside and decided to open a small position here just before the week's close (bullish engulfing pattern at supports). If we break upwards out of the flag pattern, then I'll be looking for another long entry.
SUGARUSD Bearish ShortTrading AnalysisSUGAR RAWUSD
Bearish trend forming for Sugar Commodity
We are seeing a Elliot 5 pattern way theory occurring as well on the 2-3 hour charts.
But most importantly sugar is spiraling down towards a major support level. Clearly the uptrend has broken it's trend line with a fake cat bounce/retest making it definite the reversal has occurred.
FIB LEVELS also mention that the support is a crucial zone of interest. As it could reverse or keeping it's bearishness due to it's heavy many spikes of volume.
A parallel channel has formed. I would place a sell limit in it's latest order block as seen in the picture, also to mention that there are many inside bar candles in this order block which can be used efficiently for the right trade, in this scenario shorting.
A nice 650+ pip move if all goes as speculated.
- David van Delden
SUGAR BULISH SCENARIOPrice boost and upward momentum on Raw Sugar, after India declared that a downward revision on its sugar cane crush. Being the second largest manufacturer of sugar in the world, this news had a positive effect on the price of the raw material.
Both MACD and RSI are confirming the current trend. If it continues, the price might reach levels of 25.539
As a pivot point levels of 22.43 can be used, and if the price breaks below it, can test levels of 21.58
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Sugar no. 11 heading to resistance then a retrace is anticipatedRaw sugar prices raises as Oil prices raises and manufacturers prefer producing ethanol over sugar. Next resistance at the mentioned level then a bull back or correction is most likely to happen. Oil has to fill the huge gap and that might be the time.
us sugarselling may come around 20.40-20.46. if crosses this level further upmove till 20.85, in short term consolidation here / profit booking can come at this level , above this level good to go for 24.
short below 19.50 or take sl of this level
Forecast SUGAR#FOOD #SUGAR
Cheap sugar is only in our dreams.
At the moment, the accumulation phase is nearing its end. The technical figure "flag" begins to be traced, the exit of the market from which, according to the canon, should take place upwards.
The first target will be the resistance level ~24.
Its breakdown will send futures with a high degree of probability to cross the global level at 39, which is approximately x2 from current prices.
This is possible if the world system plunges into hyperinflation, the signal for which is already given by the actions of central banks (yesterday's post on the Bank of England).
Under such a scenario, it would be wise to buy food and essentials at current prices.
SugarSugar has been trading within a large rising channel for almost a year. After recently testing and confirming channel support, price has rebounded and we're just about halfway up the channel. A falling window (gap down) served as resistance on the way down to support and has also temporary stalled the current rally.
Now, after a strong daily close above the falling window we are currently testing old resistance as new support. I'm now long and looking to take a small piece out of this market as price moves towards channel resistance.
How does the surge in sugar futures affect Coca-Cola’s profit?
Sugar is used in food, beverage, and in biofuel production, and its importance in global trade gives it a strong position in the commodity futures market. The price of sugar has surged 17% since the beginning of January 2021.
Reduced Brazil production
Sugar prices have recently been affected by production levels in Brazil, a key sugarcane producer and exporter. In May, Brazilian mills reportedly had to cancel sugar export contracts as they shifted to ethanol production, seeking to capitalize on high energy prices.
Brazil supplies half of the world’s sugar, producing 654.8 million tonnes of sugarcane, 41.25 million tonnes of processed sugar and 29.7 billion liters of ethanol annually.
As the Ukraine crisis triggered a global energy crisis, Brazilian farmers shifted to ethanol production. However, the US Department of Agriculture estimates that sugarcane crop in Brazil will recover 6% year over year to 613 million metric tons in the 2022-2023 marketing year.
Strong output in India and Thailand
Still, India and Thailand, which also export substantial volumes of sugar, are making up for the reduced output in Brazil. Last month, a trade group in India said the country could produce a record 36 million tonnes of sugar in 2021/22, up 3% from early estimates.
The record output in India and improving production levels in Thailand could bring global sugar prices down. But concerns that the Indian government could curb exports recently pushed the prices of sugar futures higher.
Sugar users bear brunt
While concerns of lower sugar production can be a win for sugar futures traders, users of the commodity are bearing the costs of low sugar supplies and higher inflation.
Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), known for its namesake sugary drink, is considering additional price hikes as record-high inflation is eating away companies’ profit margins.
Last year, Coca-Cola raised the prices of its products to counter higher commodity costs, joining other consumer brands like PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) and J.M. Smucker (NYSE:SJM).
The price hike helped the soda manufacturer grow its full-year revenue in 2021 by 17% year over year to $38.7 billion. Household brands like Coca-Cola, which continues to dominate the global market for soft drinks, have strong pricing power, allowing them to pass on higher input costs to customers.
Thus, Coca-Cola’s stock price has risen in line with the price of sugar since the beginning of 2021, up by ~20%.
However, Coca-Cola and rival PepsiCo recently suffered from lower margins despite strong revenues. The companies warned in February that rising costs are weighing on their profit margins, prompting them to lower their sales expectations.
Banking on pricing power
"We control our supply chain basically all the way to the shelf. That puts us in a relatively better position, but I wouldn't say we're not going to have challenges. We're not immune to that," Johnston reportedly said.
PepsiCo’s stock climbed 13% over the past year as of Tuesday.
Coca-Cola CFO John Murphy echoed Johnston’s concerns, telling analysts in an earnings call in February that the company continues to expect commodity price inflation to have a mid-single-digit impact on comparable cost of goods sold in 2022.
But Murphy remains bullish on the company’s pricing power, saying commodity pressures will be offset by the company’s “pricing power and brand leadership.”