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SUGARUSD trade ideas

GBP/NZD and SUGAR/USD on watch for me today.GBP/NZD: • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our lower rayline and it does so correctively, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just below a one hour or a fifteen minute rejection from it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. SUGAR/USD: • If price corrects and a tight one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
OANDA:SUGARUSD
by StewySongs
1
Sugar 1-day classic patternsQ: What has the highest probability of occurring? There are bearish pattern failures followed by bullish pattern validations into an uptrend. There are 2 classic patterns 1 is validated the other has not validated. The cup & handle is in breakout and is approaching its target. The pattern projects $0.2175 per pound as the target. The bull flag is not validated. This pattern projects $0.2200 per pound as the target. Objectively $0.20 per pound is a psychological resistance level. The price for a pound of sugar has increased and the breakout from bullish patterns coinciding with the failure of bearish patterns reflect this. Volatility is declining and the rate of change has dropped below 0. Declining fear and a break in the trend's momentum. Since the cup and handle has validated the bias is for long positions. Confirmation of the bull flag provides a starting point for trend continuation.
OANDA:SUGARUSDLong
by xciiitradingco
EUR/GBP and EUR/NZD on watch for me today.Good morning one and all. I hope you're well. So yesterday I took another loss, this time on SUGAR/USD which has now rocketed to the upside and although I'm now consistent enough to be able to trading professionally based on the very large sample size of fully documented and journalled trades that I have this is currently my worst run of form from a results perspective since I started doing so. This doesn't worry me in the slightest because of this edge that I have over the market which I know will continue to consistently play out over a subsequent large enough sample size of trades, because it's been tried and tested over several decades worth of data. But since I'm running my trading career like a business I'm always keen to make tweaks and improvements where I can. So yesterday I did a lot of assessing and re-evaluating and with trading being a predominantly psychological affair I've made several tweaks and improvements to my processes which are designed to improve my psychology moving forward. That said I did identify one key area of my trading from a technical perspective which needed improvement and I've now made an amendment to this which based on the fully documented and journalled trades that I've placed should see my trading results improve dramatically over a large enough sample size of trades. The latter resulted in me getting long on EUR/GBP last night just before I went to bed with price currently floating around my entry point as I type, but I wouldn't be surprised if some momentum kicks in to the upside when the London Session opens this morning. Below is the forecast which I created last night and of course my EUR/GBP forecast gave me the entry that I was looking for, so I'll now only be watching this today for monitoring purposes and as always I will not be looking to get long on EUR/NZD until my 1% risk exposure to EUR/GBP has been completely removed from the table. EUR/GBP: • If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/NZD: • If price pushes down to and ideally just below the lower descending trend line of our most recent piece of structure, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If price only pushes down to and ideally just below our lower rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll once again be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll again be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
OANDA:SUGARUSDLong
by StewySongs
EUR/CAD, EUR/GBP and EUR/NZD on watch for me today.Good morning guys and girls, I hope you're doing well. I placed a short trade on SUGAR/USD yesterday. It met all of the criteria which has made it possible for me to trade professionally, but once again the liquidity just hasn't come into the market in my forecasted direction. On the lower time frames this trade no longer looks great from a structural perspective in my opinion and in my experience when this happens it almost always means that a trade that I'm in will result in another loss. However as professionals it's important that we're not as zoomed in as most people are on TradingView and we observe the bigger picture and on the daily chart yesterday's trading did leave SUGAR/USD with a confirmed evening star formation at structure, although admittedly still with a little bit of wick to the downside. So we'll see how this one plays out. As I keep saying, trading isn't about making money every single time you place a trade, if it was then none of us would be professional traders. It's about having an edge over the market and letting that edge play out over a large enough sample size of trades, something which the majority of people who trade aren't patient or probabilistically minded enough to do. Where today is concerned it's all about the Euro for me today and pasted below is my Tuesday forecast for your viewing... Have a great day! EUR/CAD: • If price pushes down to and ideally just below the lower trend line of our most recent piece of structure and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking to get long with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just above a one hour rejection from it. • If price pushes down to and ideally just below the lower trend line of our most recent piece of structure and it does so impulsively, then I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/GBP: • If price pushes down to and ideally just below the lower trend line of our most recent piece of structure and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking to get long with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just above a one hour rejection from it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/NZD: • If price pushes down to and ideally just below our lower rayline and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking to get long with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just above a one hour rejection from it. • If price pushes down to and ideally just below our lower rayline and it does so impulsively, then I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
OANDA:SUGARUSDLong
by StewySongs
EUR/CHF, SUGAR/USD and EUR/NZD on watch for me today.Good morning guys and girls, I hope that you had a great weekend. I've got quite a lot to get through this morning. So I was tagged out of my EUR/CAD trade on Friday for a nice little profit of +1.94%. As price broke below our daily double bottom area I was keen to start locking in profit even more aggressively just above it and when price printed a one hour retrace at this double bottom area that's exactly what I did and then I was taken out by volatility shortly afterwards. It was touch and go whether I had this pair on watch again today for a potential buy, but I think what's looking more likely now is that price will push back up before it pushes back down to potentially given us an even better setup by way of a 1, 2, 3 touch structure which breaks below our daily low and then I will be most definitely looking to get long. But I think that this if this does happen it might take until tomorrow to do so and to give me the setup that I'll be looking for, so I'm happy to sit on my hands until then where this potential trading opportunity is concerned. I placed another trade last night which was a short trade on NZD/JPY. It ticked all of the boxes and more and shortly after I placed my order I was triggered in and a lot of momentum came into the market in in my forecasted direction almost immediately and then I went to bed. However during the night price retraced aggressively and it took me out for a -1.00% loss. A lot of people question themselves when they take a loss, but I've been in this game long enough to know that if I took this trade 100 times it would make me money and therefore I don't think when such setups present themselves, I execute because through repetition and experience I've acquired a probabilistic mindset, which is vital to our success as traders. As I've said before we just roll the dice as traders and if we have an edge of the market as I do then that edge will play out over a large enough sample size of trades. Once again I considered having this pair on watch again today as I think just as with EUR/CAD price might be giving as an expanding pattern at structure which we can potentially capitlise on, however just as with EUR/CAD I think that this trade setup will likely not be ready until tomorrow. So once again I'm happy to sit on my hands until it does (if indeed it does). Listed below is what I'll be looking for today and posted as separate screenshots this morning are both trade recaps and all three forecasts. Have a great day! EUR/CHF: • If price corrects and a tight one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. SUGAR/USD: • If price impulses down further, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/NZD: • If price pushes down to and ideally just below our rayline and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking to get long with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just above a one hour rejection from it. • If price pushes down to and ideally just below our rayline and the last part of the move is impulsive, then I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
OANDA:SUGARUSD
by StewySongs
1
CHF/JPY, SUGAR/USD, EUR/CAD and CAD/JPY on watch for me today.Good morning guys and girls, I hope you're well. Before I explain what I'll be looking for today let me just say before I forget that I made a slight mistake with my forecasting yesterday morning. By that I mean that what I said I'd be looking for from each pair beside the bullet points which I list beneath each currency pair subheading in my forecast description was actually what I said I'd be looking for from the pairs which I had on watch the previous day, which is why you might have noticed that what I said I was looking for was at odds with what I said I'd be looking for in the callout bubble descriptions on my screenshots. As you may or may not have guessed I use a template for the text in my forecast descriptions and I changed the currency pair subheadings to reflect the pairs that I was looking for yesterday, but I forgot to change the bullet points beneath them before pasting them over to TradingView, hence why the latter were my entry requirements for the pairs which I had on watch the previous day. Thankfully there will be no such problems this morning. Moving on and I'm currently running at just over +1.5% profit with my EUR/CAD trade. Whereas I would normally lock in profit above the highs I locked in profit more aggressively just above our most recent swing low as price approached the bottom of structure where a reversal is much more likely and although it does look like a tight bull flag has formed to push back up it's important to note that price never quite broke our previous low on the daily chart and that the bull flag is becoming very wide relative to the impulse up which preceded it, making perhaps a slow trickle down to this liquidity point more likely. So I have EUR/CAD on watch again today for this reasons for a potential buy if price does break our stand out daily low. If it does and we got a strong one hour close below it I will lock in profit just above the daily low and then be ready to flip my bias if I'm tagged out for around +2% profit in anticipation of a subsequent tight bull flag back above it which I'll be looking to get long on the break of and of course if that doesn't happen and we either slowly or quickly start to push lower then with a bit of luck and if I manage it well then I'll still be in the short trade which I'm currently in and this is why I constantly talk about the importance of remaining neutral in trading so that you don't become too attached to a bias. With regards to my potential long trade on CAD/JPY I'm just being a little bit careful where the tight one hour bull flag that's formed is concerned. a) Because there have been two subsequent one hour corrections since the move up which broke and retraced back above our previous daily low and b) Because the Canadian dollar is trickling up against several currency pairs across the board making some kind of sell off more likely which would make it more likely that I could be tagged in and tagged out of this trade. So what I'll be doing is waiting to see if price will give us an ever so slightly flatter bull flag, that it so say one where the gradient of the highs at the top of it doesn't have quite as much of a descent to it before I look to get long on the break of it, especially since it's also starting to become wider and wider relative to the impulse up which preceded it. But without further ado today's forecast is listed below. Have a great day and a great weekend and I'll be back on Monday morning with another one of these forecasts! CHF/JPY: • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. SUGAR/USD: • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/CAD: • If price pushes down to and ideally just below our rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. CAD/JPY: • If price impulses up, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If price only pushes up to and ideally just above our rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll again be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll again be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
OANDA:SUGARUSD
by StewySongs