Sold my SUI, but I will buy back I sold most of my SUI positions today.
My overall bias for SUI is still bullish. However, there are some bearish signs in weekly and daily charts. My main concern is if the bear trend resumes in the higher time frame, it will take weeks and months for the price to recover. Meantime, I identified long opportunities in other crypto currencies. I rather realise the profit and reallocate it to others.
The reasons for concerns:
Weekly:
Both RSI and Stochastic have reached the overbought territory and are rolling down.
MACD is losing bull momentum and MACD lines are about to cross to the downside. The similar setup happened in April 2024 and the price continued to drop for four months.
Daily:
The daily MACD and RSI are presenting clear negative divergence. The price also dropped and closed below the ascending trendline (orange line in the chart), and retested and dropped below the trendline as well as Fib 0.236.
All daily momentum indicators are entering the bear zone.
The reasons for not selling:
Although the current chart setup looks pretty bearish, there is a chance it can be a bear trap. Large crypto exchanges and market makers can drop the price to liquidate long positions.
For instance, the price fell and closed below the trendline on Oct 25th 2024 ( red vertical line in the chart) after forming negative divergence. But the price quickly recovered and started a parabolic leg up. There is a possibility the same scenario can play out this time as well. I might regret selling my positions, however, although the last time,the price dropped below the trendline, it stayed above EMA 55. This time, it is dropping below EMA55.
In summary, I sold my SUI positions because I cannot ignore some strong bearish signs in the higher time frames. Although I still think SUI will perform in the long run, I have identified other crypto currencies that will outperform SUI for now. The opportunity cost of not taking profit and reallocating to others is too great to miss. I will let go of SUI for now, but I will definitely buy back when the bull momentum comes back.
