SUI Elliott Wave Meets Fibonacci: Wave 5 Setup ExplainedSUI has once again delivered a textbook display of wave structure, Fibonacci precision, and anchored VWAP interaction. After finishing Wave 4, price surged upward, tagging key fib levels and now consolidating at a critical decision point. The next high-probability trade opportunity is forming — and it’s one worth watching closely.
📈 Recap of the Current Move
After completing Wave 4, SUI surged right into the golden pocket — the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the entire 90-day downtrend (measured from the $5.3687 high to the $1.7174 low). That golden 0.618 sits at $3.9739, with price currently hovering just below at around $3.965.
In our previous analysis, we noted SUI’s tendency to respect trend-based Fib extensions. That pattern is holding beautifully.
Projecting from Wave 1 to Wave 2 of the current impulse wave, price once again nailed the 2.618 Fib extension — at exactly $4.10. That extension aligned perfectly with the 0.65 retracement of the 90-day wave at $4.0907, forming a significant resistance confluence.
2.618-1.618 fib:
The result? A healthy ~7% rejection, pulling SUI back into a support zone formed by three previously broken swing highs — $3.875, $3.8121, and $3.7666 — now acting as support.
🔺 Wave 4 Structure: Triangle Formation & Key Retest Levels
SUI has now been consolidating for ~1.5 days, and price structure shows a developing triangle — a classic Elliott Wave Wave 4 pattern.
But while triangles often resolve higher, we can’t ignore the Fibonacci roadmap:
The 1.618 trend-based Fib extension (drawn from Wave 1 → Wave 2) sits at $3.7619.
This level aligns almost perfectly with the key swing high at $3.7666.
In the previous Wave 3–4 sequence, price also retested the 1.618 extension — a pattern that could repeat now again.
So, despite the bullish triangle breakout potential, there’s still a high likelihood that price dips slightly to retest the 1.618 Fib zone at $3.76–$3.77.
📊 Anchored VWAP Confluence: Even More Support
To further strengthen this thesis, we’ve anchored VWAP from the recent swing low at $3.12. That VWAP (yellow line) now sits at $3.745 — just beneath the 1.618 Fib and in perfect confluence with the swing high cluster.
This creates a tight demand pocket between $3.74 and $3.77, where four technical tools align:
→ 1.618 trend-based Fib extension
→ Anchored VWAP from $3.12
→ Broken swing highs now acting as support
→ 0.382 Fib Retracement of Wave 3
This is where smart money looks to accumulate — not at the top of the triangle, but where liquidity gets transferred.
🧠 Outsmarting the Crowd: Trap & Trigger
Many breakout traders are positioning within the triangle, with stop-losses just beneath. If price dips into the $3.74–$3.77 range, it would sweep those stops and fill orders from traders waiting patiently at this confluence.
This creates a classic “switching hands” moment: breakout longs are stopped out, and Fibonacci-aligned buyers step in just as price hits the sweet spot.
To be part of the 1% in trading, you need to be thinking one step ahead — not where price is now, but where it needs to go to trap the many and reward the few.
🎯 Long Trade Setup
Entry Zone:
$3.77 preferred
Laddered from $3.76–$3.74
Stop-Loss Options:
Tight: Below $3.70 (2% buffer)
Loose: Below $3.52 (golden pocket of previous Wave 3)
Targets:
Conservative: $4.28
Primary: $4.41
Aggressive Extension: $4.5873 (0.786 retracement of full 90-day move)
R:R Potential:
Tight SL: ~2.5:1
Loose SL: 6:1+
📆 Weekend Trading Note
We’re currently in weekend session flow — often thinner liquidity and more prone to wicks. While the structure is strong, wait for confirmation and avoid FOMO entries at the top of the triangle.
✅ Wrapping It Up
SUI remains in a clean, bullish market structure and continues to respect Fibonacci and trend-based extensions to the letter. With price above key swing highs, holding structure, and anchored VWAP adding confluence, the $3.74–$3.77 zone is setting up as a high-probability entry for the next wave.
Smart money doesn’t chase — it anticipates. Be the 1% who sees beyond the triangle and understands where the real opportunity lies.
Happy Trading!
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