$AMZN - Break of StructureThis market has recently picked up my attention not only because of that ascending triangle base, but also because of its context.
Firstly, let's not forget that this market has been trading below a downward sloping 10 EMA, since the beginning of 2022. Therefore, by default, the bias has been to look for a short opportunity, a set up agreeing with the major trend, a downtrend.
However, that July 2022 bullish candle, with an overwhelmingly above average size, should have been scary enough to leave the bears in this market uncomfortable, at the very least. Yes, bull runs also happen in downtrending markets, but their momentum and candle size tend to be a lot more shy, at least if the bearish dominance in the market is healthy.
Still no bullish trade after that, unless you didn't know what you were doing.
Thereafter the price tested but respected the 10 EMA twice, to resume its downtrend, but this time, the new lower low nearly came with an RSI bullish divergence. Another oversized bullish candle erupted in Jan 2023, concluding a bullish kicker signal candlestick pattern, unveiling once again the presence of the bulls in this market.
And once again, price below the 10 EMA, so you don't want to be bullish on this market ... but now you had 2 above average bullish candles in this market ... would you really feel convertible on the bearish side here? With so many other markets out there, where you can step in once it becomes highly likely that the contrary forces have a weak presence in that market , why would you risk it for ambiguous scenarios?
Only this time, look at the profile shift in this market. Strictly from a price action perspective, look at how the dominant color in this market became green instead of red.
And this ascending triangle pattern took from under the described context.
What's so special about this market that earned it this whole text? A breakout from this base just popped up.
A breakout, which, if sustained, also entails a breakout above a key EMA, which has been respected by the price. And also a breakout which entails a rupture with the previous market structure (lower highs and lower lows) and transition to a new one (higher highs, higher lows - or just a range, we'll see) where bullish trades could become our bias.
Before all the bulls out there jump with joy, remember that the month is still going through its equator. But if the breakout holds and closes, this might as well be a trigger for a bullish trade like the one displayed on the chart ... always with the utmost and paramount respect for sound risk management principles.
Cheers,
Tenacious Tribe - Back Tested Trading Strategies & Studies
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