TSLA Approaching a Critical Reversal Zone! Can $280 Hold? Feb.28Technical Analysis (TA) & Price Action
Tesla (TSLA) remains in a strong downtrend, trading within a well-defined falling wedge pattern. The stock is currently testing a major support zone around $280, which aligns with the highest negative NETGEX and significant PUT walls. A breakdown from this level could open the door for a steeper decline toward $250, while a bounce could lead to a sharp reversal rally.
Key observations:
* Trend Structure: TSLA is in a clear downtrend, but nearing exhaustion based on technical indicators.
* Support & Resistance:
* Major Resistance: $297-$300 (breakout confirmation level).
* Key Support: $280 → If this breaks, expect further downside toward $250.
* Breakout Target: $310 - $350 if momentum shifts.
* MACD Indicator: Showing a slight bullish divergence, which could signal an upcoming reversal.
* Stoch RSI: Oversold at 37.67, indicating potential upside pressure if buyers step in.
Options Flow & GEX Analysis
The GEX (Gamma Exposure) indicator suggests that TSLA is heavily weighted on the PUT side, with the highest negative gamma near $280. This implies that if $280 breaks, the next big support is around $250. However, if $280 holds, a short squeeze could push TSLA toward $300+ quickly.
* IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): 74, with IVx avg at 77.9%, showing high volatility expectations.
* Call Side Bias: 31.9% of options flow, indicating some bullish positioning.
* Key GEX Levels:
* PUT Wall & Key Support: $280 → A breakdown could bring $250 as the next stop.
* CALL Resistance & Upside Target: $300 → A move above this level could send TSLA toward $350+.
Trade Plan & Suggestions
📌 Bullish Reversal Setup (Preferred Play)
* Entry: Above $285 with strong volume confirmation.
* Target 1: $300
* Target 2: $310-$350 (Extended breakout target).
* Stop-loss: Below $278
📌 Bearish Breakdown Setup (Hedge Play)
* Entry: Below $278 with strong selling pressure.
* Target: $265 → $250
* Stop-loss: Above $285
Final Thoughts
TSLA is at a crucial inflection point, with $280 acting as the major battleground. If buyers defend this level, expect a short squeeze rally toward $300+. But if this level fails, the next leg down could accelerate toward $250. Volume confirmation is key before making a trade.
📢 Risk Management: Keep tight stop-losses, wait for confirmation, and be ready for volatility.
🔹 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk accordingly before trading.
