GOLD MCX:GOLD1! Weekly bullish chart setups with parabolic formation in India MCX market, whereas Gold comex trading at new lifetime high. Macd shows positive momentum with like a fast and furious moves possible in near future.
GDF1! trade ideas
Gold long termStill going in the right direction. Resistance at 3200 to 3400 area give or take 50. Then next big move up to final target #1 is around 6k and if we over shoot in the madness then 9 to 10k.
Gold vs Oil RatioGold vs Oil Ratio. Along with the simple Gold graph to highlight what drives this ratio change.
This is Wyckoff VSA Buying at a Supply Line with SMIIn this short video, Author of "Trading in the Shadow of the Smart Money", Gavin Holmes, explains a very important set up to go long. It is called buying into a supply line and is clearly shown in this video.
COT Strategy - Gold ShortDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Gold (GC)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in GC if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Valuation: Overvalued vs Treasuries
Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Only thing that would be better is SS's making an extreme in long positioning, but no luck with that yet (but something I'm watching).
OI Analysis: OI has been increasing on up move since June. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the OI increase"? When it is caused by Large Specs & Small Specs, it is bearish. In the case of Gold, it is being caused by LS & SS's, which is bearish.
Spread: Bearishly diverging.
ADX: Diverging, implying the trend lacks integrity.
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dis , %R, Stochastic & Momentum (not yet triggered)
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
GC! TO THE MOON
Price Trend
Gold futures (GC1!) are currently showing a strong upward trend. The chart indicates that the price has formed a clear upward channel since the end of 2022, and has recently broken through the upper boundary of this channel, demonstrating even stronger upward momentum.
Key Data
Current price: $2,646.2 per ounce
Change: +35.5 (+1.36%)
Trading volume: 893,122 contracts
Technical Analysis
Trend: The long-term trend is clearly upward, with short-term acceleration in price increases.
Support and Resistance:
Major support is at the lower boundary of the ascending channel, around $2,400.
The current price has broken through previous highs, with no obvious resistance at the moment.
Volume: Recent trading volume has remained at relatively high levels, supporting the price increase.
Seasonality: According to the seasonal data at the bottom of the chart, September is typically a weaker month for gold performance, but this year has shown exceptionally strong performance.
Market Sentiment
There is currently strong demand for gold in the market, possibly influenced by global economic uncertainties and inflation concerns.
Risk Warning
Although the current trend is strong, the price is at historical highs, posing a risk of correction. Investors should closely monitor changes in the global economic and geopolitical situation.
Summary
Gold futures are currently in a strong uptrend, with the breakthrough of key resistance levels indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market. However, considering that prices are at high levels, investors should remain cautious when making trading decisions and set appropriate stop-losses.
Sell Russell and Gold tomorrowTomorrow I will be looking for shorts if everything went like expected. Setups are explained in detail in the video #trading #goldtrading
GC1: Sell ideaSell idea on GC1 as you can see on the chart because we have the breakout with force the support line and the vwap indicator....
2024-09-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - Bull trap above the bull wedge as I wrote. Bears confirmed it with the close today. I look for shorts tomorrow and expect 2560 or lower to be hit tomorrow. Anything below 2540 would be a huge surprise and we could see an acceleration down to 2500. If bulls reverse this and trade back above 2610, bears will most likely give up until we hit 2700.
comment: Another spike and new ath but huge rejection. I do think the rejection was strong enough to expect follow through and test the lower bull wedge trend line around 2550/2560.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 2550 - 2630
bull case: Bulls tried to break above the bull wedge and failed. Odds now favor a retest of the lower trend line (daily ema is also there), where I expect buyers to step in more strongly again. If bears somehow fumble this again, bulls would need a reversal of the huge 1h bar and get back above 2600. The longer bulls can stay around 2600, the better.
Invalidation is below 2540.
bear case: Bears want to keep the momentum strong tomorrow (after the 50+ point rejection from the new ath) and test down to 2550. If they somehow manage to break below 2540, we could see an acceleration down to 2500/2520 but I highly doubt that. Since we had a spike up and then a huge spike down, the dominant pattern is still the bull wedge and there is not much more magic to it than what I described. Bears absolutely need to keep it below 2600 to have a chance of lower prices.
Invalidation is above 2605.
short term: Neutral until bears get follow through below 2570 or 2600 is clear resistance now.
medium-long term: 7 consecutive months where Gold barely went below previous month’s low. Strong buying on the monthly chart but also the third push up we are currently in. I highly doubt bulls get another one so if it continues, it’s without me. I am waiting for a bigger correction.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: How could you predict those spikes today? You can’t. How can you trade them? Only viable could have been shorting the spike above 2620 but those are hard to take. You would need a wide stop and scale in. One time you short it correctly and make the trade of the week and next time you blow your account if you are not humble enough. Today was no obvious good trade to be honest.
Gold to 2530From what we saw during the FOMC meeting I predict to see the price of Gold more lower than the Monthly opening;
GC Short 09/18/24Selling inside of the previous day premium area. Looking to take out 11am sell side liquidity. Price already showing signs of weakness and looking to trap impatient sellers.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 9-17 : Wednesday is CriticalIf you were paying attention to my SPY Cycle Patterns today - boy, a beautiful "top" pattern setup today. Just like my SPY Cycle Patterns predicted more than 3 years ago.
If you've been following my research, you already know I've identified dual excess Phase Peak patterns that should resolve into a rollover topping pattern, sending the SPY/QQQ moving downward towards the end of this week (Sept 19-20). If the current Ultimate High price level continues to act as resistance, there is a real potential for the SPY/QQQ to move into a downward momentum breakdown the following week (Sept 23-30).
But, the one thing that throws the whole topping pattern into a mess is that the RSP has already broken to new ATHs and appears to be attempting to hold above the previous high-price fractals. Thus, we are seeing the equal-weighted S&P already moving into a broad value-based rally phase.
Watch this video to understand why I continue to suggest traders avoid engaging in any big trades or get greedy, thinking they are going to WIN BIG on their trades. Yes, I'm sure some people will hit their targets over the next 3-7+ days, but others will get run over (hard).
Unless you really like taking the risk of getting run over by the markets or market makers, I suggest sitting back and reading a good book while the markets or traders struggle to find their exits.
One thing is certain: the markets will move into a trend by the end of September—either into a breakaway rally phase or into a rollover topping phase.
You'll have lots of time to position for these trends because my research shows the next cycle phase is October 7-10 (nearly two+ weeks away).
So, why stress out about tomorrow's Fed Rate decision? Just sit back and wait for the markets to give you a clearer understanding of what's next.
I'll create another morning video tomorrow morning.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
GOLD FUTURES MCX ANALYSIS ( LOOKING BULLISH )Gold futures looks bullish and we can expect levels upto 82300 once it crosses 76100 in near term ( By 30th November ).levels are marked in chart posted. Before we witness breakout of 76100 view is cautious and one should remain bullish with buy on dips strategy .
FOMC event - leaning bearishThe RSI is above 80 and looking at the past times in this area, I think we go lower after the FOMC news.
You can call this "Priced in", as we had a run up to this event.
I follow seasonality and september is not the best month for Gold.
October to december are very good months for gold, so be patient and wait for a pullback
Good Luck!
New Plan! Buying MGC Contracts until the (DXY) Smoke Clearsthe markets opened up for the week and DXY - the US dollar index - immediately started selling off, down almost 0.5% within the first couple hours of trade.. i think its time to leave that market alone until it sees some stability. i will now be looking over to the gold market
[Daily Bias] Gold - Thu 091612024 - Drop lowerThe price opened within Friday's value area, tested the value area high (VAH), and then dropped today. After a significant move, the price needs to stabilize before deciding on the next direction, especially with tomorrow's news
2024-09-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - There it is. Another break above, which was expected more than bears breaking below 2500. Bulls want 2600 and I expect more profit taking and more sideways movement at that level. No interest in selling it.
gold
comment: New ath, which I have been writing about for many weeks now on the premise that as long as bears could not even break below 2500, there was no alternative to being bullish. The breakout was a matter of when and not if. Market refused to close below the daily ema for 5 days despite touching it 4 times. That’s strong bulls scaling into longs. What’s next? We are at the top of the bull channel and every time market made a new high, bulls took bigger profits. Will this time be different? I doubt it. Can bulls break above the bull channel for much higher prices? Doubt that too. Will look for weakness and scalp some shorts tomorrow.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 2500 - 2600
bull case: Bulls want 2600 and somewhat above to run stops. Nothing unexpected. I highly doubt that have bigger interest in printing much higher than 2600, given the previous sell offs after new ath. 15m 20ema was not touched on the whole move up, so look for longs once we get there before we hit 2600.
Invalidation is below 2550.
bear case: Bears gave up above 2560 and I can’t see them coming around big time below 2600 so don’t waste energy on looking for shorts until it’s clear that bulls have no interest in buying anymore. Bears need a break of the 15m and 1h ema to begin with.
Invalidation is above 2610.
short term: Bullish for 2600 and then only interested in shorts again.
medium-long term: Will update on the weekend. Bulls are clearly much stronger than most expected. Market refuses to go down.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day : If in doubt, zoom out. 1h chart showed only strength since Globex. Buy anywhere and make money.
GOLD FUTURES SHORTAnalysis
- Market reaches for trendline which would be a retest of a bullish trend
- Once trend line has been touched the market can potentially move into the previous resistance level turned to support and continue its bullish momentum.
WE ARE CLOSE TO END OF *GC* BULLISH STORYIn the monthly time frame, I can see that 2647$ for the GC is the end of the story
you can enter for a short position at this price, with a max of 25 pips SL, the correction range is 1500 to 1800 pips.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : GOLD Breakout WINNERGetting through my morning with phone calls and coding - I took a break to check on the markets and what did I see? A huge breakout rally in GOLD.
This huge move higher (+$40) is a massive win for those who followed my Plan You Trade Videos.
I've been saying any price move above $2565-$2575 would be a gift and traders should attempt to BOOK PROFITS as Gold moves above these levels. I warned not to hold positions above $2585-2593.
In fact, I'm expecting a bit of a metals flash-crash event to take place near mid-October.
But, today is a winner day for gold traders. A HUGE WINNER day.
I'm so happy to hear from all of you about your success with my Plan Your Trade videos.
This is what it is all about - help you become a more skilled trader.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
[Daily Bias] Gold - Thu 091212024 - Drop lower Following the significant drop after yesterday's CPI release, I anticipate further downside today, especially as the market transitions from the Asian to London session.
If the previous day's Value Area Low (VAL) holds, we may see a retest of the Value Area High (VAH) or the Developing Point of Control (DPOC). However, if the VAL fails to support the price, a deeper decline is likely
