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GDF1! trade ideas

Tracking Crisis with This Ratio – US Markets vs GoldThese are the 3 major crisis over the last 25 years. The dot com, 08 and the recent 9% inflation crisis. Before each crisis get into its full swing, I have observed there was a surge in gold. In this tutorial, I will share: 1) Why a surge in gold before each crisis? 2) What are the key variables that we should be looking out for this year? and 3) I hope I don’t sound too ambitious in discussing how to time this move? E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options Ticker: NQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $5.00 Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
6
**Gold Futures: Current Trends and Analysis****Gold Futures: Current Trends and Analysis** Gold futures have been experiencing significant volatility recently, driven by a combination of economic data, geopolitical tensions, and market sentiment. The price of gold has been fluctuating within a range, with key support and resistance levels being closely watched by traders. **Market Drivers** 1. **Economic Data**: Recent economic reports have shown mixed signals, with some indicators pointing to a strong economy while others suggest potential slowdowns. This has led to uncertainty among investors, pushing them towards safe-haven assets like gold. 2. **Geopolitical Tensions**: Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and trade disputes have added to market uncertainty. Investors often turn to gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks. 3. **Interest Rates**: The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates has been a major factor influencing gold prices. Expectations of rate hikes or cuts can significantly impact investor sentiment towards gold. 4. **Currency Movements**: The strength of the US dollar plays a crucial role in determining gold prices. A weaker dollar typically makes gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies. **Technical Analysis** Technical indicators suggest that gold futures are currently in a consolidation phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are showing mixed signals, indicating that the market is indecisive. Key levels to watch include the weekly high, previous day high, and previous week high, which have acted as resistance, and the previous day low and previous week low, which have provided support. **Current Statistics** - **Gold Price**: As of the latest data, gold futures are trading at approximately $2,911 per ounce. - **Volume**: Trading volume has increased by 12% over the past week, indicating heightened interest and activity in the market. - **Open Interest**: Open interest in gold futures has risen by 8% in the last month, suggesting a growing number of contracts outstanding. - **Volatility**: The volatility index for gold futures has increased by 4% over the past month, reflecting the current market uncertainty. **Historical Context** To put the current trends into perspective, gold prices reached an all-time high of approximately $2,070 per ounce in August 2020, driven by the economic uncertainties brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, gold prices were as low as $1,050 per ounce in December 2015. Comparing current prices to these historical highs and lows can help investors gauge the market's direction. **Market Sentiment** The general sentiment among traders and investors is mixed. While some are optimistic about gold as a safe-haven asset amidst ongoing uncertainties, others are cautious due to potential economic improvements and higher interest rates. Monitoring sentiment indicators and trader positioning can provide additional insights. **External Factors** Several external factors may influence gold prices in the near future: - Upcoming economic reports, such as employment data and GDP growth rates, could impact market sentiment and gold prices. - Central bank meetings, particularly the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates, will be closely watched by traders. - Geopolitical events, such as trade negotiations and conflicts, could add to market volatility and affect gold prices. **Investment Strategies** Based on the current trends and analysis, here are some potential investment strategies: - **Long-Term Holding**: Investors who believe in gold's long-term potential as a hedge against economic uncertainties may consider holding gold futures for an extended period. - **Short-Term Trading**: Traders looking to capitalize on short-term price movements can take advantage of the current volatility by employing technical analysis and setting clear entry and exit points. - **Diversification**: Diversifying with other precious metals, such as silver and platinum, can help spread risk and potentially enhance returns. **Conclusion** In summary, gold futures are currently in a state of flux, with various factors influencing price movements. Traders and investors should keep a close eye on economic data, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies to make informed decisions.
COMEX:GC1!
by OakleyJM
5
Gold is poised for a bullish run; consider long positions for ne - Key Insights: With gold climbing approximately 85% year-to-date, strong investor sentiment amid economic uncertainty is palpable. Psychological barriers near the $3,000 mark can spark further interest. Pay attention to potential bullish opportunities amidst short-term bearish signals which may prompt temporary pullbacks. - Price Targets: - Next week targets: T1=$2,950, T2=$3,040 - Stop levels: S1=$2,820, S2=$2,780 - Recent Performance: Gold has displayed a robust market presence, notably after reaching an all-time high this trading cycle. Currently, it stands at $2,910.69995, with the trend signaling a continuation of this upward movement. However, a cautious approach is warranted given recent short-term bearish signals. - Expert Analysis: Analysts emphasize gold's crucial role as a safe-haven asset amidst stagflation worries, with many central banks enhancing their gold holdings. Expectations of resistance near $2,940 to $2,980 could influence short-term dynamics, but the long-term outlook remains positive, especially with gold's historical value against inflation. - News Impact: Recent discussions around delivery issues of physical gold present potential challenges to traditional pricing and could lead to noteworthy price divergences. Additionally, concerns about dollar weakness heighten liquidity risks, making gold increasingly appealing as a secure financial asset during these volatile times.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by CrowdWisdomTrading
My thoughts for GCIm looking for areas of consolidation on a higher time frame preferably the one hour then on the 5min wait for a bullish engulfing to print to enter for buys, now Monday is a holiday so I know NYSE will be closed so for the entries already taken, during Asian opening will only be technical trades, but there is high impact news, and depending on descolations with Russia, I plan for contiunation buys, but I plan to watch the dollar and the yields for any potential reversals to the. downside
COMEX:GC1!Long
by FuturesBaddie
GOLD - WEEKLY SUMMARY 10.2-14.2 / FORECAST🏆 GOLD – 14th week of the base cycle (15-20+ weeks). The pivot forecast on February 11 worked as a reversal on Tuesday and set a new high. Based on cycle timing, this pivot forecast may mark the top of the current base cycle. The cycle is quite mature. However, we should not forget about strong support at the October 28 extreme forecast level (2850 on the current futures contract). ⚠️ Next pivot forecast: February 24. Next extreme forecast: March 3 – the beginning of the retrograde Venus period, which I mentioned in early December. 👉 The working range of movement for the GC futures contract from the February 3 pivot forecast was between $5K and $10K per contract, depending on the exit strategy. Congratulations to those who entered – a great trade.
COMEX:GC1!
by irinawest
Short Selling in Gold MCX and Comparison with Global MarketsShort selling in gold on the **MCX (Multi Commodity Exchange)** involves betting on a decline in gold prices. Traders borrow gold contracts, sell them at the current market price, and aim to buy them back at a lower price to profit from the difference. However, this strategy carries risks, especially in a volatile market like gold. ### Key Factors to Consider for Short Selling in Gold MCX: 1. **Price Trends**: - Analyze technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, support/resistance levels) to identify bearish trends. - Look for signs of weakness, such as breaking key support levels or forming lower highs and lower lows. 2. **Global Gold Prices**: - MCX gold prices are influenced by international gold prices, typically tracked via benchmarks like **COMEX gold** (New York) or **London Bullion Market (LBMA)**. - A strong correlation exists between MCX and global gold prices, but currency fluctuations (USD/INR) can cause deviations. 3. **Dollar Strength**: - Gold prices often move inversely to the US dollar. A strengthening dollar can put pressure on global gold prices, potentially supporting a short-selling strategy. 4. **Geopolitical and Economic Factors**: - Safe-haven demand for gold during geopolitical tensions or economic uncertainty can drive prices higher, making short selling risky. - Central bank policies, interest rates, and inflation data also impact gold prices. 5. **MCX-Specific Factors**: - Domestic demand for gold in India, especially during festivals or wedding seasons, can influence MCX gold prices. - Import duties and local market dynamics may cause MCX gold to deviate from global trends. ### Comparison with Global Gold Markets: - **MCX vs. COMEX**: MCX gold prices are derived from COMEX gold prices but are adjusted for the USD/INR exchange rate. If COMEX gold falls, MCX gold is likely to follow, but a weakening rupee can limit the downside in MCX. - **Volatility**: MCX gold can sometimes exhibit higher volatility compared to global markets due to local demand-supply dynamics and currency fluctuations. - **Trading Hours**: MCX trading hours differ from COMEX, leading to gaps in prices when one market opens after the other closes. This can create arbitrage opportunities but also increases risk. ### Risks of Short Selling in Gold: - **Unpredictable Surges**: Gold is a safe-haven asset, and sudden geopolitical or economic crises can trigger sharp price rallies. - **Carry Costs**: Holding short positions in futures contracts may involve rollover costs. - **Leverage Risk**: MCX trading involves leverage, which can amplify both gains and losses. ### Conclusion: Short selling in gold MCX can be profitable during bearish trends, but it requires careful analysis of both domestic and global factors. Traders should monitor global gold prices. Want to learn more connect us on 9325432783
MCX:GOLD1!
by trad_corn
Gold Weekly Analysis – Bullish & Bearish ScenariosCurrent Market Structure: Gold is trending upward within a well-defined weekly ascending channel and has not broken out yet. The market is currently near the upper boundary of the channel, meaning a breakout or a potential rejection could occur. Expected Movement This Week: Bullish Scenario (Higher Probability If Momentum Holds): A clean breakout above the channel resistance would signal continued bullish momentum. The price could consolidate briefly at the breakout level before pushing higher toward $3,000+. If a pullback happens after breaking out, we expect a retest of previous resistance (now support) before continuing upward. Confirmation: Strong bullish candles with increasing volume. Bearish Scenario (If Gold Fails to Break Above Resistance): If gold fails to break out and rejects from the upper boundary, a correction is likely. The first key downside target is around $2,760 (weekly level), aligning with previous structure. A deeper decline could lead to $2,571, which is another weekly support zone. Confirmation: A strong rejection wick, bearish engulfing pattern, or increased selling pressure. ⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: Trading involves significant risk and can result in substantial losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any trading decisions.
COMEX:GC1!
by ScalpMasterPlus
Gold Options Activity Point to Continuing RallyNot a single macro portfolio manager was fired for adding gold to their portfolio over the last two years. Such has been gold’s stunning performance. Will Gold’s ascent continue? Narratives and numbers signal unstoppable and solid bull run in gold for now. BULL CASE REMAINS INTACT AND IS INTENFISYING This paper will not delve much into fundamentals. We have covered it previously in Gold to Shine Bright on Fundamentals, Seasonality & Sentiments . In that we highlighted the three main forces at play: (a) Continued central bank purchases, (b) Rising consumer demand in China & India, and (c) Trump administration’s fiscal policies favouring gold. In addition to the above, US Dollar weaponization, De-dollarisation fears, and Tariff tensions, serve as additional tailwinds. TradingView Wizard, Konhow , has comprehensively covered the historical impact of tariffs on Gold in his recent paper and video . SENTIMENTS HAVE SURRENDERED IN FAVOR OF RISING GOLD This research note will not dive into the weeds of technical analysis either. TradingView’s Technical Analysis dashboard summarises it all elegantly. TradingView Momentum is in favour. Oscillators are neutral indicating little risk of price reversal. Overall, sentiment remains bullish gold. Gold prices as represented by CME Micro Gold Futures front month contract formed a golden cross on 10th January 2025. Since then, prices are up 8.5% as of 13th February 2025. Current prices are well above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day DMAs. RSI is in overbought zone. Expect some pull back in gold prices from time to time on profit taking. But the upward trend is undeniable. The MACD shows that Gold momentum continues to be on the rise but with waning bullishness. Readers can access the entire library of technical ideas focussing on Gold on TradingView’s Gold Ideas Page ideas page . OPTIONS MARKETS ARE SIGNALLING A SOLID BULL RUN AHEAD This paper aims to unpack recent activity in CME gold options market and its impact on prices. No contrary signals there either. Options market also signal bullish gold. QuikStrike is a free-to-use tool for registered participants on the CME Group website. The tool provides a vast range of analytics to guide portfolio managers & traders to better comprehend the underlying market. Each report comes with a helpful user-guide to describe the data covered within the report. Some key takeaways below: Open Interest Profile page shows that as of close of markets on 11th February 2025, total call open interest (“OI” for short) stood at 634,815 lots across all expiries and strikes. Aggregate put IO totalled up to 357,305 lots resulting in a put-call ratio (p/c ratio) of 0.56. Calls are options contract that represent a bullish view. While puts are contracts representing bearish outlook. At 0.56 p/c ratio, there are twice as many bullish positions for each bearish one. Source: CME QuikStrike Most Active Strikes allow portfolio managers and traders to analyse top strikes with shifts in open interest. Table below shows top 10 strikes registering the largest change in open interest between 4th February and 11th February. Starting first with the Calls (left section of the table below), participants have been building up open interest in strikes 4000, 3200, 3250, 4500, 4032, and 3,975. Call options have also booked reduction in open interest at strikes 3000, 3075, 3100 and 3025. On a net-basis, open interest is up 10,312 lots across these top ten strikes over various expiries this year. Source: CME QuikStrike Puts (right section of the table above) shows rising build up in open interest for strikes ranging from 2740 to 2880. Collectively, this indicates that market participants are rooting for gold prices to rise through USD 3,000/oz and to even rally past USD 4,500/oz. Will that happen? Only time will tell. Given that risk managers are establishing puts at such high levels point to strong support for gold prices at current levels. In a nutshell, current prices are not only formidably comfortable but the potential to rise is also highly probable. Shifting the attention to volatility, the CME Group also offers CVol which is another free-to-use tool. Portfolio managers and traders can visualise implied volatility behaviour on this tool. Source: CME CVol The GCVL which is the Gold CVol index shows implied volatility at 17.65 and with a positive skew of 1.08. Implied volatility easing even at an elevated prices indicates that market participants are comfortable at current price levels and do not foresee immediate large price moves. Skew on the CVol tool is defined as Up Var minus Down Var. Up Var is the likelihood of the price rising while Down Var measures the likelihood of prices falling. A positive skew shows that the market is pricing a higher likelihood of rising prices relative to a down move. FUND FLOWS INTO GOLD ETF IS UP 47% YOY Among its rich set of features, TradingView also shows daily ETF fund flows . GLD is the prominent ETF commanding assets under management (AUM) of USD 80.65 billion. This time last year, GLD ETF showed AUM of USD 54.77 billion. Fund inflows have spiked 47.25% over the past 12 months. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP With fundamentals, sentiment, options market, and fund flows all pointing to a price that is set to rise, this paper posits a long position using CME Micro Gold Futures expiring on 28th April 2025 (MGCJ2025) based on the following entry, exit levels and the reward-to-risk ratio: • Entry: USD 2,900/oz • Target: USD 3,100/oz • Stop: USD 2,800/oz • P&L at Target (USD per lot): +2,000 ((3,100 – 2,900) x 10) • P&L at Stop (USD per lot): -1,000 ((2,800 – 2,900) x 10) • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2x Please note that Each Micro Gold Futures contract provides an exposure to 10 troy ounces. Both standard-sized gold futures (GC) and the newly launched 1-ounce gold futures offer avenues to express bullish sentiment on the yellow metal. This comprehensive suite of gold futures is tailored to enhance flexibility and precision, empowering investors to capitalize on market opportunities effectively. CME Group lists a raft of products covering a range of asset classes more accessible while also enabling granular hedging for portfolio managers. Portfolio managers can learn more on how to access these micro products by visiting CME Micro Products page on CME portal to discover micro-sized contracts to gain macro exposures. In collaboration with the CME Group, TradingView has launched The Leap trading competition. New and upcoming traders can hone and refine their trading skills, test their trading strategies, and feel the thrill of futures trading with a vibrant global community through this paper trading competition sponsored by CME Group using virtual money and real time prices. The competition lasts another 15-days. Please join the 48,000+ others who are actively honing their trading skills using virtual money. Click here to learn more. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by mintdotfinance