There's A Huge 'Dip-Buy' Opportunity Right Now In GoldHey guys! In this video, we're talking about a 'dip-buy' trade idea in gold.
The macros and micros favor it - good luck to all.
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GDF1! trade ideas
Gold buy from demand Zone...!gold is still major demand zone....may buy from this zone....wish good luck.....!
Gold11.14.24 yesterday I did a video on gold and I told you that gold would probably find a reversal pattern and go higher today. so far it has done that. I decided to show you what a stop would be so that you realize that I'm using about an $800 Stop which is not a small amount of money for people who are beginning to trade. this is important because I can get stopped out of the market on a small stop of $800 and then the market turns around and goes 1000 of dollars higher. but I am still going to have a small stop even if I get stopped out and if the market moves in a certain way I'll get back in for the same trade but it'll be on a new trigger and I'm not going to worry about the fact that I stopped myself out a little early. I decided to open up a new chart on gold and then I proceeded to tell you about how I use extensions in conjunction with 2 bar reversals. please spend some time looking at this and draw these patterns on your software. I decided to use a new chart to show you what happens in markets that will find you the trigger which is a long trade for me on this example.... and what to do when the market isn't quite ready to go in your direction and how you can exit the market.... and you might even be able to do it before it hits your initial stop so you might lose less than $800 but you're out of the market. the market does a bear flag.... you get out with some minor loss or Breakeven.... and then the market finds buyers using an extension..... and now you know this may be the time you get into the market.... and then you look for a two-bar reversal going in your direction Which is higher on this example. what I didn't tell you is that sometimes the market can give you two bear Flags and then on the third attempt after you've had two losses the market reverses and makes a huge move higher....... gold is one of those markets from my experience. I actually posted on that several years back and I'm too lazy to find it but it's there. A couple of years ago my two students didn't understand how to get into a market and manage the risk... to my liking.... so I decided to use a two-bar reversal because much of the time it's a two day reversal but it gives you a very clean signal. up until that time I could look at the market from my experience and know what it looked like but I couldn't convey it to my two students so it took me some time to figure out the 2 bar reversal... and there's another aspect of it that I would call opening price and I thought it was worth taking that approach because one of my students was up at the wee hours of the morning and not many cheating her time effectively and she couldn't see the patterns efficiently...... and so I tried show her a 2 bar reversal which I thought was easy but it took some time and this hypothetical trade on gold is an example.
Gold Views as of nowI feel lile buying gold as of nowm consiering price action.
Zones as mensioned in the chart drawing.
Gold BounceAs gold falls into these lower zones here, I am looking for confirmation to flip long within these zones of support
2024-11-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold - We are at the last stand for the bulls before this is going to free fall down to 2500 or 2400. I have on more open bull gap to 2560 and if that is closed, there is no more support until much lower. It’s obviously max bearish but I won’t short this. r:r is not there imo.
comment : Easy to write about. Either bulls reverse this very hard above 2560, or we flush down to 2500. Market made the move from 2600 to 2800 in 40 days and bears now reversed it in 9. This selling is as climactic as it get’s. A short squeeze is almost inevitable at this point. Need huge buying pressure and a give up bar for me to join the bulls. Every touch of the 4h 20ema has been sold for 2 weeks. First target for the bulls is 2600, followed by 2630 and then they still have 2 more bear trend lines to break. Really tough for bulls. If they manage those targets, market turns neutral and we will probably move sideways.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 2600 - 2700
bull case: Bullish have their do or die moment here under 2600. Reverse or flush down to 2500. Selling is overdone, which is weird since we started at overbought. Interesting times. Weekly 20ema is at 2600 and an open bull gap. This support is as good as it gets, if it fails, sell this hard.
Invalidation is below 2570.
bear case: Bears selling it all. Best shorts are from the 4h 20ema. Can you still sell this on the next 4h ema touch? Yes but you have to be prepared that market will make a higher low, since this is so oversold.
Invalidation is above 2630.
short term: Neutral until big buying pressure. Below 2570 I join the bears if we flush down.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-13 : Will do an update on the weekend. 3000 is not going to happen. If bulls are lucky, they see 2700 again but for now that’s more of a dream than a likely outcome.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling 4h 20ema.
Coffee soybeans oil gold11.13.24 the gold has moved down $20,000 from its high and will probably find buyers tomorrow. here there are no guarantees but it's coming to a Target area on the ABCD pattern and it doesn't have any 2 bar reversals to go higher so far today and so I'm guessing that the market will find a toolbar reversal after the end of today's market move you might even find the reversal later tonight after the market closes for a bit and then opens up later today.
Q4 OUTLOOK FOR GOLDI believe we have capped the high for the year for Gold and are now trading the closing wick back into the overall range for 2024. If you want more insights to this idea please click the link to the video below. Thanks.
MGC Trade Idea30m Supply has been printed from a reaction to 1h Supply. Sellers broke Demand and has deeper Demand to target. We will trade from premium Supply targeting 1:3, scaling off contracts throughout.
Gold Futures exactly at mid channel support. Gold futures are exactly at Mid-Channel Support for Gold Enthusiasts. Mother line support is already broken after head and shoulders formation in Gold. Gold Futures CMP is 75200. If Mid-Channel support 74436 (Major Support) is broken we can see gold fall to 73175 or even 71192 levels where Gold will come down to meet the Father line support of 200 days EMA. Resistances for gold on the upper side seem to be at 75836 (Major Mother line resistance of 50 days EMA). 76498, 77683 and 79K. Gold is looking little weak on charts and if Mid-Channel support is broken 74436 it will become vulnerable.
To Know more about Parallel Channel and Mother, Father and Small Child theory mentioned in the above message. Do read my book (The Happy Candles Way to Wealth Creation) available in E-version on Google Play books and Kindle. Paperback Edition is available on Amazon.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
GOLD MCXGold Future near demand zone
Target can be 76000-76200
This chart is only for educational purpose
GOLD Swing SpeculationTechnical Analysis Overview:
1.Current Trend Context:
• The breakdown from the ascending channel signals a shift in market sentiment from bullish to potentially bearish. This type of pattern breakdown can often lead to a corrective phase or a trend reversal.
•The price has shown a bearish rejection, indicating sellers’ control at higher levels. This is confirmed by the volume spike during the recent decline.
2.Key Support and Resistance Levels:
• Resistance Zone: The area around 76,000 to 76,746 serves as a key resistance zone after the breakdown. A price recovery to this zone may provide a swing short opportunity.
• Support Levels: Immediate support is near 74,898 and further down near 68,237. Price behavior near these levels should be monitored for potential bounce trades.
3.Indicators:
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI appears to be diverging from the price, indicating weakening bullish momentum and potential for further downside. It is important to look out for RSI moving into oversold territory, which could signal a reversal or consolidation.
• Moving Averages: If the price is trading below key moving averages (like the 20-day and 50-day), it suggests that the short-term and medium-term trends are bearish.
4.Volume Analysis:
• The recent surge in volume during the breakdown suggests strong selling pressure, which is a bearish sign. Volume should be monitored during any pullback to assess the strength of potential recoveries.
Swing Trading Strategy:
1.Bearish Swing Trade Setup:
• Entry Point: Consider entering short on a bounce back towards the resistance zone around 76,000–76,746, especially if there is a bearish candlestick formation (like a bearish engulfing pattern or pin bar) on lower timeframes.
• Stop Loss: Place a stop loss above the recent highs or key resistance levels, e.g., above 76,746, to limit downside risk.
• Target Levels: Aim for targets near the support levels, with a first target around 74,000 and a second target near 68,237 if the downward momentum continues.
2.Bullish Reversal Trade Setup:
• Entry Point: If price approaches key support levels (e.g., 74,898) and shows signs of reversal (such as a bullish engulfing candle, hammer, or divergence in RSI), consider a swing long trade.
• Stop Loss: Place a stop loss below the recent swing low, or slightly below the identified support level to manage risk.
• Target Levels: Aim for a target near the resistance zones around 76,000–76,746. Additional targets can be adjusted based on the strength of the reversal.
3. Risk Management:
• Always maintain a favorable risk-to-reward ratio (e.g., at least 1:2).
• Utilize trailing stops if the trade moves favorably to lock in profits.
Additional Considerations:
• Macro Factors: Gold prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical events. Consider these factors alongside technical analysis.
• Timeframe Alignment: Since this is a swing trade, focus on daily and 4-hour charts for entries and exits.
• Market Sentiment: Watch for shifts in broader market sentiment that may affect gold’s safe-haven status.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involve risk and may not be suitable for all individuals. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is essential to conduct your own research, assess your financial situation, risk tolerance, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions. The information provided here is based on technical chart patterns and market trends and is subject to change due to market conditions or unforeseen events.
Understanding Gold Panic Selling Reactions BetterThis video is designed to help you better understand how Gold works as a hedge instrument and how to attempt to measure Panic Selling phases in Precious Metals.
Metals offer an incredible opportunity when Panic Selling hits. But it can also present some very real risks because of price volatility.
Panic selling in the markets is usually an event-driven sell-off in almost all markets (including metals).
This type of selling is usually related to traders pulling assets (CASH) away from all market sectors because of some crisis or geopolitical event. It is a way for traders to react to the fear of the event while sometimes ignoring how metals will react to the future revaluation event.
Yet, who wants to hold Gold when it may fall 8.5% to 15% throughout this panic selling process?
If you learn how to spot the base/bottom efficiently (using my Excess Phase Peak patterns), you'll be able to pinpoint some incredible opportunities in metals.
I hope this video helps you to understand exactly how these Panic Selling events unfold - and lear to spot/trade them more efficiently.
The reality of the current market environment is that the Trump win is the event (call it a crisis or not - I don't care). This event is causing markets to revalue current asset classes (notice the strength of the US Dollar since Election Day).
I believe this revaluation event is nearly over and prices will begin to adjust into what I'm calling my "Anomaly Event" - where price levels settle back into a reversion (normal) type of contraction event before moving into a late-stage Santa Rally.
If I'm right, we'll see a base/bottom in metals happen after November 15-19, 2024.
Get some.
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Gold in weekly chartHello guys
This is my last analysis.
I hope all of you have found your way in this tricky market and for now I just want to show you how XAU will fluctuate in the next weeks. I am not 100 percent sure if wave (iv) has started or not but if it has started then all swing traders should be more careful about this corrective pattern(wave 4th). According to fundamental news and war and peace rumours around the world, a 4 wave patter makes sense.
Be safe and Happy my friends
11/12/2024 GOLD daily and hourly. Watch 2626 price reaction.Oct 31 hourly sell signal hit, daily chart has just targeted at 2800.
continued push down has not put price below Daily sell line. 2624.
I will be playing continued downside moves, while also watching for a CHOC.
However--->>A hourly buy point 2656 and daily buy point of 2652 is extremely likely to hit, since lots of orders will be sitting there. Hourly charts needs to hold above 2626 first. Watch 2626 price reaction.... will buyers take over and hold, or will sellers hold and push to new lows.
Gold soybean oil Monday Friday I posted that the goal was likely to go lower because the market Gap lower and even though the market went higher from its low it couldn't close the gap and that tells me that the markets likely to go to new lows even though it might temporarily shows some buying Behavior. that's what it did and it went even a few $1000 lower since the close of Friday and it still might go lower since there's no evidence of buyers even though the market is at a support resistance line. I think the unrealized drawdown from the high is 20,000 or so dollars and that does not make this Market bearish and if it goes lower as I suspect it will go lower.the market is Trading with significant volatility and expansion and that means the market is going to have bigger moves when it moves higher and bigger moves when it moves lower compared to markets that have very little volatility and very small range. I did not address this in the video because the video was on the laborious side.... sorry about that. it satis support resistance line, it has not closed an important Gap lower.... so it could go higher or lower but I think it's probably going to go lower. and a good portion of that analysis is that gold has been so bullish for a significant. Of time..... I think the sellers are ultimately going to push this a little bit lower and this can be very profitable for the smart money because the market is going to take out some of the late buyers who like to trade all-time highs which is a very difficult way to make money because this pattern suggests that a lot of people who were break out buyers are in trouble with their long trades because they got in to late. now if you have a lot of money and you think the markets going to find buyers and make new highs... maybe you can hold out and maintain your long position but if you got into this Market on the Breakout move higher and you're down $25,000 per contract because you were just too late.... it just think how you're going to feel if it goes down another $25,000 before it starts turning and going higher
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Gold bearish! 2570 is the next most probable targetGold has finally given in to the pressure of a strong dollar. I expect lower prices until we get to the $2570 price point. Good luck my friends!
MGC Short 11/10/2024MGC is in a sideways + down momentum in daily chart as price closed below 21EMA. It is in a downtrend in 4hr chart. Price is testing 4hr 21EMA and 200EMA. Placed a short in SZ above 4hr 21EMA (purple horizontal line) that broke high volume DZ (green box). Taking half risk because the zone is low volume. Risk= $124. Target= 1:1 and daily DZ (blue box).
Why Gold Could See a 15% Correction Before the Next RallyGold, sitting at around $2,700, boasts an impressive 32.1% YTD performance. However, we're anticipating a significant 10-15% correction from current levels.
This past week's market dynamics are telling: the Russell 2000 surged 8.57%, $500B flowed into crypto markets signaling renewed risk appetite, while gold recorded its steepest weekly drop (-1.98%) since May 2024.
While these factors shape our near-term bearish outlook, persistent economic risks reinforce our long-term bullish stance on gold for the next couple of years.
Bullish Gold Trade IdeaGold is showing signs of bullish momentum following the Federal Reserve's 0.25% rate cut, which has softened the U.S. dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets. On the intraday charts, gold is consolidating near key support levels, setting up for a potential breakout.
#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold futures: Neutral. Market only went lower through spikes, which were followed by a pullback. This is not as strong as it looks and I do think it’s likely that bears get disappointed next week. 2600 is possible but that is the lowest I can see this going for now. Any long closer to 2626 is an amazing trade. I have an open bull gap there and I highly doubt bears will be able to close it. For now bears have turned the daily 20ema into resistance and if you want higher probability on your longs, wait for a breakout above 2725.
Quote from last week:
comment: Decent pullback now on the daily chart but still far above the daily 20ema. Friday’s rejection at 2772 was good enough to expect this to break below 2740 for the second leg down. Problem for the bears is, that even if they break below 2720, the downside is probably limited to the bull trend line from August. So clearly a tough spot to trade. Any long closer to 2700 is better than closer to 2750. Same logic for shorts, I think 2800 continues to be a good level to sell and market moves more sideways instead of another break above that price.
comment : Bear surprise because they just melted through 2700 and the bull trend line on Wednesday. Bulls retested the bull trend line and got rejected. Bears were also strong enough to keep the market below the daily 20ema and as long as that is the case, bears are in control for now. 2600 is my lower target for the bears and sideways 2600-2720 is the most likely path forward imo.
current market cycle: Best guess right now is a bigger trading range 2600-2800.
key levels: 2600 - 2800
bull case: Bulls failed at 2700 and if they don’t close a daily bar above 2720 soon, we could test down to 2600, which is where I expect many more buyers to enter the market again. We have an open bull gap, the October low and the weekly 20 ema in the price area. I do think the closer you can long to 2600, the better the trade.
Invalidation is below 2600.
bear case: Bears had 2 spikes down now and they could get a third before I see this going higher again. Bears know that each sell spike was followed by a bull bar, so the trend down is weak and will likely find it’s bottom soon. Bears will likely wait for another pullback higher to daily 20ema and/or bear trend line around 2710, before trying for a third leg down.
Invalidation is above 2730.
outlook last week:
short term: Slightly bearish for a test down to 2700-2710.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2749 and now we are at 2694. Good outlook, market got even 50 points lower than my target. Hope you made some.
short term: Neutral around 2700. If we stay below 2720, I can see a third leg down to retest 2650 or even go down to 2600/2620. Above 2730 I favor the bulls to go higher again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-03: For now I can’t see this breaking above 2800, since the rally was climactic. Until 2600 is broken, I expect sideways movement inside this range. Market should test down to the weekly 20ema over the next weeks/months but bears have absolutely nothing to show for since June and that’s why we can’t expect bigger selling until they clearly do more.
Update: Changed 2700 to 2600, since market broke strongly below 2700 already. Trading range is still my preferred path forward, just the lower end went down 100 points.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added bear trend line
GOLD OUTLOOK for the rest of Q4 2024 and Weekly Outlook In this outlook I share my elite edge that I've never shared before with anyone, in hopes that it will help you with obtaining the biggest moves in your trading career. In my opinion, I believe that we have capped the high for the Gold trading year, and now we are trading the closing wick back into the overall range. In this broadcast I share projections and insights that should help you get on side with the market so that you can participate in the massive move on the near horizon. Thanks and enjoy.
