Week of April 28 - DXY/Oil/DJI/10yrLast week we got the YM1! backtest that I wanted on the weekly.
We rejected the weekly IRL and now I am looking to take out LOY on the Dow.
Dropping to the h4 chart, we can clearly see the market is now primed to drop. I am looking for a sweep of highs to begin the weekly sell program.
For those watching - we also got the 50% retrace of SPX on the weekly.
DXY - DXY made a ERL move and ended the week in a Doji. I am looking for DXY to continue its assent to the weekly ERL levels. We had another regional Bank Failure on Friday evening (they only fail banks over the weekend) - this should continue to bid DXY.
Crude Oil - OIl woke up this week and started to pop late in the week. I am still bullish oil into the 88/90 area.
Dropping to the 4hr chart, you can really see what oil wants to reach for. The 200sma is acting as support, and we are continuing to see dips bought.
10yr Yield - We pierced the 4.7% level and immediately rejected it on the 10yr this week. I still believe that yields are peaking here as we march towards a recession.
Gold - Gold on the weekly retraced to the 50% level into IRL. From HERE - it could go either way. We saw a displacement and market structure shift on the daily and 4hr charts. If gold stalls out there, we are heading lower.
So here is the setup I am watching for this week;
We saw YM pop into our weekly IRL level - from here I will be looking for 4hr charts to displace lower and start the march towards nLOY.
Looking for interest rates to continue to march lower - this will be bullish for indexes (at first) as indexes tend to ignore WHY rates are dropping for a little while.
Oil has one last gasp in it and will be supported by DXY heading lower to confirm its breakout - I am looking for $88 to trade on WTI.
Until next week - We'll be watching.
