Dow Jones Still In Uptrend (Higher Low Needs To Hold)If this uptrend is to continue, this higher low that was formed today needs to hold.
I don't believe a top is in yet, not until 42,000 area. I believe NFP will be bullish.
UDF1! trade ideas
Fractal Consolidations ShortThis short position was based on -RDRB PD ARRAY from ICT, and my SL was above multiple HRLR and I simply targeted LRLR :-)
Dow Jones September Gameplan For My Personal Daytrading After a rough August, I will proceed to take it slow. I was a bit aggressive and took a lot of unnecessary losses. I still ended the month +2R using my 3.5 to 1 risk to rewards.
I will use the 4-hour trend structure and support levels to then go to the 15 minute for entry to buy pullbacks into support. The trend at the moment is Bullish and I will keep playing bullish until it reverses. I will not try to pick tops.
My goals for September is to be more patient and selective on my trades. I need to focus on finding the best support levels to buy from. And to cut back on my overtrading. Less is definitely more. It took a while but I eliminated the demon of cutting profits early. I now can hold all winners to my 3.5R targets without issue.
I am sure nobody cares about this post on my own trading, but I post it for me personally. I use it to look back on to judge if I can keep my word on what it is I said I was trying to do.
I wish everyone a fantastic week ahead and to have a prosperous trading week.
Average Range Levels Short SetupEntry: AMR+ & 1/3+
target: 1/3 ADR-
Nearly same setup as yesterday ;)
Average Range Levels Short Setup5ADR & 1/3AWR+ was my reversal level! Price beautifuly reacted there and I simply targeted 1/3ADR+ :)
Dow Jones Futures Possible Sell Short Florida Trade Set UpThe infamous "Florida" Trade is possibly setting up and I will monitor it and possibly enter a limit order just under the open.
The Florida trade is extreme selling and does not get above the open all day.
There is two ways to enter. A limit just under the open and the trend continuation down below.
Every Florida trade closes at the extreme low.
I don't know if this is what is setting up but I am willing to try it. I will monitor it closely in London session to see how price reacts to the blue open price.
I will share a couple of past Florida trades to show you what I am talking about. This is my own personal name and setup for it.
Dow Jones Forming Top Process For Another Leg Down 2024 RangeGoing over VIX, every spike has called the bottoms and every bullish engulfing at the bottoms has called the tops
Because we now have experienced both a bearish engulfing on the Daily chart on Dow in conjunction with a bullish engulfing on VIX, I believe the top is in.
Further evidence is the gap on VIX daily that needs to be filled.
Once VIX spikes and the market starts it's down move, the break of the trendline will mark the bottom for the Long move back up. Estimated September 23rd.
I don't know how far it will go down to. I am looking at 39,150 for the mitigation of the bottom range and the trendline bottom.
Why a Cautious Bull on the US Markets?This is a classic bull market—smooth and trendy. However, it has become a cautious bull, moving within a much wider range, similar to what we observed after March.
Especially in July and August: For the Nasdaq, it was down by 17%, but it has since recovered within a two-month period.
Is this good or bad? It really depends on how we've positioned ourselves. If you're an investor, seeing your July positions slump so much only to recover so quickly could be quite unsettling—it might even give you a heart attack. But if you're a trader, you should find this volatility interesting and take advantage of it.
Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures & Options
Ticker: MYM
Minimum fluctuation:
Outright: 1.0 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Repeating The November Low 2023 Choppy Small Volatility SeasonThe blue bar pattern is the November 2023 chart superimposed on where we are at now in the seasonality cycle.
If this is to play out again, then I will expect a brutal chop coming up when it just grinds higher
Below is the November 2023 chart
This is the chop that I am not looking forward to, I am going to have to be extra cautious
Dow Jones 30 - Dow Jones Has Taken Charge!Comparing ES, NQ and YM, it's obvious that YM is in the lead as Friday's price action managed to trade higher and close out as a higher high for the week with the next point of interest being $41,305; next draw on liquidity.
I would like to see Thursdays high and opening price respected if we are to see a continuation to the upside, targeting macro arrays.
YM - I'd Be Surprised If We Don't Make It To $41,095Much clearer on YM's price delivery compared to ES and NQ.
The rejection block @ $41,095 is a major point of interest as that was the price that supported the sell-off into the abyss; booking lows of 2,500 ticks.
Ultimately, trading using 1 contract would yield you $12,500 in the span of three trading days!
Similar to ES and NQ, i am anticipating a poach above buy stops before sinking into this weeks trading range with the most recent volume imbalance being the logical stop-off point.
2 Hour Swing Trade Entry Triggered LongI was not paying attention to Friday and so missed this entry Long using the close of this pin hammer bar on the 2 Hour.
I will set a limit order for that price and hope price can retrace back into it. I may have missed the trade.
On my 2 Hour Swing trading strategy, I use 150 tick stops and 525 tick targets set in stone for a 3.5 to 1 risk to reward.
Limit Price: 41,148
Stop Loss: 40,999 150 ticks
Target: 41,674 525 ticks
If filled, expect to hold for 2-6 days
OHLC Statistical Mapping Setup+Manipulation to +Distribution when bullish, this is the most simple model with this indicator!
Dow Jones Futures August-October Range Into Daily SupportI see a well-defined bull channel, albeit very choppy and rangey. I believe the market will try to build a bigger Long position in this upcoming range before the explosive move higher to 42,000.
On the Daily, you can see the support from August 13th's high and August 14th's low. The gap left behind from August 15th will likely get filled once price retraces back into the support zone.
On the 4 Hour chart, we are at a topping formation with the next leg of moves being bearish back into Daily support. When daytrading on the 15 minutes, I need to pay attention to the bearish order flow until we reach said support and focus on sells in the meantime. Once in support I will start looking for buys again until we reach the top of the range once again.
Seeing how Jerome Powell will be giving a speech tomorrow at Jackson Hole and how we are now in bearish order flow structure, I am betting on Friday being a sell off after a run up.
Fibonacci and Points of Control
Never seen anything like this before.
2 Indicators:
1) LonesomeTheBlue "ZigZag Multi Time Frame with Fibonacci Retracement" on daily time frame.
2) Session Volume Profile HD
This will only work with Heinken Ashi candles
This is a six hour time frame, notice that there are four points of control that match up with the fib levels. I will never believe this random - and no one looks at six hour time frames, its not one of the defaults. Consider looking at it.
Dow Jones Weekly Gameplan For Daytrading August 18thPrice is still in the trending phase on the 4 hour with the most recent fat engulfing bar being major support. The highs of that candle will be major support.
I will be looking for buys all week, everyday. I do not see any pullback happening this week with all this buying strength.
The blue line is this week's open price
The green line is the support from the bullish candle's high.
The tops of bullish candles are used as support. As you can see below, the tops of fat, bullish bars are used as support.
I will be using 50 tick stops and 135 tick targets for 2.6 to 1 trades. ONLY, buy setups. I WILL not look AT ALL for sells. I will disregard the bears and focus on finding quality buy setups in good support zones.
Friday, August 16th 2024 Buy Low Range Day Lows 40,450I will be looking for a buy low in the yellow demand box from yesterday's demand. Down near 40,500 area for the range day back up to the blue line of today's open.
I will be using 50 tick stops and 135 tick targets for a 2.7 to 1 as I have been seeing great success with this setup. I am already up 18% for August so far.
I just need $150 more to pass another Topstep 50,000 account.
I am currently trading 1 funded topstep, 1 eval topstep and my own personal $20,000 account on the 15 minute chart.
E-mini Dow Jones Futures are pullback, trend remain bullish
Current Situation:
The futures are currently trading at 39,865, down 1,208 points or 2.94%. This indicates a significant short-term pullback.
Technical Levels:
The chart shows key Fibonacci retracement levels:
0.5 retracement at 38,865
0.618 retracement at 40,162
1.0 extension at 41,684
1.618 extension at 45,168
Trend Analysis:
The overall trend has been bullish, with prices making higher highs and higher lows.
However, the current candle shows a significant red bar, indicating strong selling pressure.
Support and Resistance:
Immediate support seems to be around the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 38,865.
The recent high around 41,684 may act as resistance on any upward moves.
Volume:
The current trading volume is 1.47M, which is significant and suggests active participation.
Seasonal Patterns:
The seasonal data at the bottom of the chart shows mixed performance for upcoming months:
September has been historically weak (-1.40% average)
October and November tend to be stronger (2.32% and 4.21% averages respectively)
Price Projections:
The chart shows two potential paths:
A bearish scenario with a further drop towards the 0.5 Fibonacci level
A bullish scenario projecting a move towards the 1.618 extension at 45,168
Recent Performance:2024 year-to-date performance has been positive, with gains in the first 7 months.
Risk Factors:The current sharp decline might signal a change in market sentiment or reaction to economic news.
Conclusion:
While the E-mini Dow Jones Futures are currently experiencing a pullback, the overall trend remains bullish. Traders should watch the 38,865 support level closely. If it holds, we might see a bounce back towards previous highs. However, if it breaks, we could see further downside. The seasonal pattern suggests potential weakness in September before a stronger Q4. As always, traders should consider broader market conditions, economic data, and risk management in their decision-making process.
Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis: YM_F should Resume the RallyShort Term Elliott Wave View in E-Mini Dow Jones Futures (YM_F) suggests the trend should continue higher within the sequence started from April-2023 low as the part of daily sequence. It favors upside in wave ((5)) while dips remain above 38535 low. Since April-2024 high of (3), it starts to move sideways for almost 3 months to build a triangle structure. This triangle completed wave (4) at 39284 low. The market resumed the rally building an impulse as wave (5) ended at 41672 high and also wave ((3)) in higher degree.
YM_F begins a big correction in July 18 high. Down from wave ((3)), the index did an impulse structure to complete a wave (A) at 40053 low. Then, the market did a bounce developing a double correction as wave (B). Up from wave (A), wave W ended at 41051 high. The connector (X) ended at 40606 low and last push higher completed wave (Y) at 41427 and also wave (B). The market resumed to the downside forming another impulse as wave (C) of ((4)). It placed 1 of (C) at 41028 low, 2 at 41305 high, 3 at 39518 low, 4 at 39880 high and finally 5 at 38541 to complete wave (C) and wave ((4)). While price action stays above 38541 low, we are calling for more upside to continue the rally as wave ((5)).
2024 Range Bound (Buy Lows, Sell Highs)2024 is shaping up to be a range bound year. I am not going to try to analyze what will happen years from now. I am taking it year by year.
The last time we had a Doji candle year was in 2015. It even had the same increased volatility and sell off in August. If I see that little double bottom again, I am going long back up into the top of the range. It seems like every time it goes long, it does that silly little double dip first.
I am flat all positions as I don't know the market's intention. Part of me thinks the 33 Secular Bull trend will continue up and another part of me can see a 40% sell off. I will be humble and take it day by day. Until then I will be playing short term on this range.
It seems to me like we are getting ready to bounce up off of the blue 2024 open line.
Same in 2015
Dow Industrials Monthly ButterflyThis one is better than Nasdaq, has indicator divergence as well and is earlier
Possibility for +20% correction from here
