Dow Short IdeaThe Dow just broke below it's uptrend from April during this overnight session. If it remains below and comes back for a retest, I think it's make for an excellent short opportunity. Target would be the April low.
UDF1! trade ideas
Weekly Overview: YM1 Dow Jones AnalysisThis week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM1) offers a critical technical landscape for traders. With the Nasdaq closing at 39,879, our outlook will hinge on this key level, determining whether the market will trend bullishly above or bearishly below. In the absence of significant fundamental news, technical indicators and market sentiment will play pivotal roles in shaping our trading strategies. Key support and resistance levels, along with volume trends and market momentum, will be essential in predicting the Dow's movements. Traders should remain vigilant and responsive to these technical cues to navigate the market effectively.
YM - Singularity Between Them AllUnlike ES and NQ, the monthly candle closed out as a inside month, in comparative to the previous month which is different.
I like to see when all three markets are moving lockstep with each other.
However, YM is a market i use as a sort of barometer to gauge the strength of ES so information like this is crucial for risk management purposes.
Although this month was a inside month, business was conducted inside the volume imbalance located @ $39,469 - $39,560 before a relief rally ensued.
Will this continue??
I have my eyes on $40,400
Week of FOMC Bullish Continuation of Range Running HighsI anticipate next week of July FOMC to be a bullish week to run the highs inside this range.
I will be Day trading off of the 15-minute chart using the 4 hours as my structure. I will only be looking for buys.
Of course, seeing how this is a range, it could also just as easily sell back down into the bottom of the range. I will see how my support zone holds up.
There is a setup of buying a pullback up to the highs but I am not quite fond of being a buyer at the middle of the range. They call the middle the slaughter house for a reason. If you do want to take it, then I would go light as it is a bit more risky.
OHLC Statistical Mapping <3Played out beautifuly, the second scenario where opposing manipulation turns to resistance from support. target was simply -distribution.
November 2025 Shorting Opportunity 1987 2.0 Flash CrashUsing 1987 as my template on the weekly chart, I am following price up to 49,500 at the 1.25X range expansion where I will place half my order. Then when I see a lower high and engulfment, I will place the other half of my order for the flash crash down to the 50% gold line.
I will be using 1200 tick stops with 11,000 tick targets.
I am expecting around November of 2025 as the time to go short.
I will use 5 MYM micros risking $3,000 on the first half and another 5 MYM for $3,000 on the second half.
IF, everything goes to my plan, then I will bank $55,000 on this trade.
I will then use that $55,000 to buy my YM down at the 38,000 level to then start the wealth accumulation towards 150,000
SEE 1987 CHART BELOW FOR REFERENCE:
YM OHLC Stat Map <3-Manipulation was broken and turned from resistance to support, target was simply +distribution because I was bullish
Best Trade Setup Low Of Day Parabolic Trend Squeeze Backtesting I will be going over this repeatable setup on the 15 minute chart and my goal is to master every little nuance of this setup. This setup offers at least 4-8 times your risk on the day trade.
I have noticed that there are 3 variations of this setup depending on how Asia and London set it up.
A quick run down of the tools I use
Highlighter blue: Where the greatest entry would be for little to no drawdown after the market has been set up
Range expansion: The high to low of the rectangle box to project upwards potential profit targets of 1.5-2.5 times that box
Cyan Line: The day's current open price
Green Line: The Low of Day heading into the NY session window
I am making this post to help others and for me to reference often to better understand this setup that I want to master. Like Mcdonald's I need a repeatable product that is cookie cutter that I can reliably profit off of.
I have noticed that this happens 4-5 times per month and up to 8 times some months.
4-5 times a month is a 20-25% occurrence rate based on 20 standard trading days in said month.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Dow Futures (YM) Resumes Bullish TrendShort Term Elliott Wave View in E-Mini Dow Jones Futures (YM) suggests the trend should continue higher within the sequence started from April-2024 low as the part of daily sequence. It favors upside in wave 5 of (5) since 18-April, 2024 low, while dips remain above 40053 low. Since April-2024 low of (4), it placed 1 at 40213 high, 2 at 38111 low as dip pullback and 3 at 41672 high. It ended 4 as clear 3 swing zigzag pullback at 40053 low and favors upside in 5, which confirms above 41672 high to avoid any double correction, if breaks below 40053 low. Within 4 correction, it placed ((a)) at 40466 low, ((b)) at 40795 high and ((c)) at 40053 low, which missed the equal leg areas in 4 before resume higher.
Above 4 low, it placed ((i)) of 5 at 41051 high and favors corrective pullback in ((ii)), which should remain above 40053 low to extend higher in ((iii)). Within ((i)), it placed (i) at 40685 high, (ii) at 40158 low, (iii) at 41029 high, (iv) at 40863 low and finally (v) at 41051 high as ((i)). It placed (a) of ((ii)) at 40606 low and favors bounce in (b) before turning lower in (c) to finish ((ii)). As long as it stays above 40053 low, it should resume higher in 5 and can extend towards 42052 – 42671 area to finish the impulse started from April-2024 low before correcting lower. Alternatively, if it breaks below 40053 low, it can do double correction towards 39432 or lower levels before it should turn higher.
BOS below previous lows - YM short opportunity Weekly FTGH continuation - Daily LH continuation. Breaks below previous lows - great R:R opportunity to next level 40431 large imbalance to fill
YM long opportunity next weekIF we break 40,999 we have a great R:R opportunity for longs due to break of structure previous highs and previous imbalance
YM - Dow Jones Coming Like Bitcoin??!Unlike ES and NQ, last week booked all-time highs but failed to close above the monthly buyside liquidity @ 40,702.
This weeks candle opened with a gap relative to the close of the previous weeks candle, spiked to the downside before closing above the previous monthly buystops.
Friday was the day we saw the most movement.
YM - You Know I Like My Low Hanging Fruits.Got my sights dialled into $40,442 as YM, in comparison with ES and NQ is late to the game.
What game you might ask?
The game of savaging sellers!
OHLC Statistical Mapping-manipulation got my attention when I am bullish and I targeted -Distribution. Simple bread & butter model on YM which presents nearly every day.
Sell Opportunity on E-mini Dow Jones (5$)Hello,
We've identified a huge current opportunity to Sell E-mini Dow Jones (5$) Futures with a high probability in the Daily chart.
The target is set at 40000$ first and 39800$ Second within a few days (Swing trade).
Ibrouri
YM Day Trade and Swing Trade (Setup Range Sell Continuation)For my Monday gameplan:
Downtrend continuation from the Range High to the Range Bottom
Pullback Somewhere in the 50% level
Take out the low from Friday and the 5 bottom liquidity from last Monday- Tuesday
Hit the mid point of the bottom of the range and close the gap from last Monday
Daytrade:
50 tick stop
200 tick target
4:1
Not looking for anything massive, just 150-200 ticks. My daytrades are base hits
Swing Trade:
On my other swing trading account, I will take the same trade idea and hold it for a couple days, using a bigger stop and bigger target
150 tick stop
800 tick target
8.33:1
Target possibly hit if trade works, Tuesday
Dow Jones Futures Daytrading Setup Continuation Long 41,750I am looking for a pullback Long for the continuation up to 41,750 which is around the 2X range expansion. A somewhat of a repeat of yesterday. A dip below the open followed by Long at the NY open.
I will have to see how price is behaving towards the NY open.
My stops are always 50 ticks and my targets are 150 ticks. 3 to 1
Using my wealth trade, price is now in breakout mode on the weekly and will be ripping higher to 49,000. I will only be looking for Longs for the next 12 months.
Dow Jones Transitioning Into Range August CPI BreakoutDow Jones has now transitioned into a range. I will be changing my plays to range bound plays.
My thesis is it will spend 4 weeks going sideways before the August CPI report will breakout Long up to 42,000 and then up to 49,000.
I will look for sells in the red upper box and buys in green lower box.
I will use the quarter dotted lines as price targets and possible bounces off of.
I will be looking for runs of highs and lows for liquidity sweeps.
Each 25% level of this range is roughly 350 ticks.
The entire high to low of this range is roughly 1400 ticks
Here is a rough idea of how I plan to daytrade this range.
Looking to target swing highs and lows for sweeps
Looking to target each 25% level for profit targets
Entry Model: 15 minute chart
4 Hour Structure
Weekly Trend
50 tick Stops
150 tick Targets
3:1 risk to reward
40-45% win rate
Only 2 losses per trading day
YM - Draw On Liquidity @ $40,673?Bullish elongated uptrend for sometime now and the next draw on liquidity before possible major shift is @ 40,673.
When will we see it book?
Dow Jones Wealth Building Trades 1987 2.0 Long 49,000I have fine tuned my add strategy on this trade that I have been in for almost a month now. I am trading off of the weekly chart.
My original entry was June 30th at 39,520
I added again July 16th at 41,268
I plan on adding three more times, using the profits from the other two positions to fund these new positions.
Add 2: 42,500 area
Add 3: 44,000 area
Add 4: 45,200 area
I will bail out and close all positions by 48,500-49,000 area
What I don't get is why the market is setting up another 1987 style flash crash around August 2025?
Nearly EVERYTHING is identical to 1987 setup that this is what I am basing my trade off of.
Compare the two charts below and let me know. One from today and one from 1987
1987
2025
I am not sure what to do about that massive shorting opportunity coming up, if I want to just YOLO 10% of my portfolio on it. I feel ok with taking a 10% hit if it doesn't pan out. Or, do I just sit on cash and wait and see. I will have to wait until price starts to unfold later.
YM OHLC Statistical Mapping + Average Range Levels by Toodegrees1/3ADR- & +Manipulation = gem | Target was 1/3ADR+
RINSE & REPEAT 1/3RR BOOKED.
Checkout my profile for the biggest discount + plenty of examples of these tools which plays out every single day and week
Dow Jones Futures I am liking what I am seeing with the Dow. Hopefully we can get another push tomorrow. If we need our current markups will be as the picture follows. Now can we see some massive moves this week. We can with the current news that is coming out this week.
Wealth Building Trade Update (Long until 49,000) 25% Spike Down Just providing an update on the status of the market. Now that 40,000 is broken out of, it is on the march towards 50,000 or the 1.25X range expansion. After which the market will make a 25% spike down into the 0.50 level of 37,000 before continuing on the grind to 150,000.
This is all my own personal speculation of course but this is how I am trading the market. That spike down lines up perfectly with the 0.50 level AND that long term bull trendline. It also makes a higher low above November's 33,000 low.
This will allow the 49,500 high to be fuel as a weak high to be broken. Once 50,000 is broken, then the market will start to grind higher up to 150,000 and eventually accelerating towards the end.
The covid spike down was 36%. The June 2025 spike down will only be 25%, enough to shake off higher level longs before the march higher. I will out before that level.
