support levelThe Dow seems to be at a support level, if the support holds, the uptrend is likely to continue
UDF1! trade ideas
Market Maker Weekly Doji Templates (Outstanding 33% Chance)Going through this set of data since late 2021 or 140 weekly candles, I have discovered that an astounding number of weeks are of the Doji type ( 1 Out of 3 )
My previous post was about pin hammer bars and they represent 17% of all weekly candles.
Between dojis and pin hammers, that is equal to 50% of all weekly candles.
The other 50% of candles represent expansion bars (small, medium, and large)
In most cases on a doji week, what ever price the week opens with, price will tend to go back and forth around that price for either a high of week sell or low of week buy.
If this short week is indeed a doji, then it should rotate around the week's opening price of 39,160
And, since most weekly doji candles are roughly 350-600 ticks from the high to low, then that will be a good spot to look for reversals.
I won't know how this week unfolds until it unfolds, I can only watch and react accordingly.
Market Maker Bull Hammer Weekly TemplateThe following template for a bull hammer weekly candle is as follows.
Monday goes sideways. Mark off the high and low of Monday
Tuesday is a complete down day
Wednesday and Thursday form the mid week reversal
Thursday and Friday close out the week at the highs
Another thing I have noticed is that this type of weekly candle happened only 16 times since 2020 and 9/10 they occurred around a news event like FOMC,NFP, and CPI and/or a holiday. 4th of July happened 2 times in a row, New Years, and Easter.
I will need to back test more on the bearish side of the coin to test more data
Dow Jones Selling High Opportunity (Pullback 39,575)I am looking for the next sell off after a slight pullback up into the 39.5k area
The ramped volume will be the fuel to take it lower.
Last week was a bearish engulfing and will likely see more selling pressure
This can be a 10:1 opportunity
100 tick stop
1000 tick target
Dow Jones Price Cycles AnalysisThe average bull and bear price cycle on the Dow Jones is roughly 20-25 days before it switches back.
Roughly 3-6% moves in a direction
Dow Jones Looking For Next Higher Low Sell OffI had anticipated that Monday was going to be the high in my previous post. I initially thought it was going to pullback a little bit higher before a sell off but today it based lower and then sold off.
I am still bearish short term and will be looking for the next higher low to position myself short at least down to 39,650 to take out that small range back on May 14th
Funny how price is floating above that low just waiting for it to be taken out.
The average weekly candle on the Dow is 937 ticks.
That will place the low somewhere at 39,250 area, roughly.
Dow Jones Bullish Target 45,000I believe the low of late April's range will be the low in this up channel.
Price will chop around inside this box before coming back down to that low before ripping to the upside.
The top of the channel and 45,000 is a short-term target. My ultimate target is 90,000 around 2035
Every bull run is 26 years and 1000+% gains
The low was in 2009
2009-2035 is roughly 26 years
Great Short Trades on the DOW as price dumped on FOMCThe DOW was sold lower as traders looked to lock in some profit.
By planning ahead and assessing recent price action, you were able to steer clear of the early rally and focus on Sell Setups to take advantage of the selloff.
In the video review, I talk through the previous sessions price action and why I was looking for selling opportunities. I then discuss the Price Action on the trading charts and the momentum plays that led to the Sell Entry setups!!
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Winning Trades thanks to a clear Price Action readIn the video I talk through my trades on the DOW and reasoning for the executions.
I aim to take some trades early in the session if they setup and we had a few good setups in a generally range bound market.
I like to initially plan out the key levels using higher timeframe charts and then trade using the 5 min and 1min charts. By using a fast and slow MACD, I can define the short term momentum moves and then trade around them using the price action setups.
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High of the week sell off of Weekly Open and Golden PocketWith Monday and Tuesday off the books, we have the last three days left in this weekly template.
I see an obvious peak formation high printed on Monday and to me, this looks like Monday will set the high of the week.
The opening price of the week is at the neckline of that peak formation high. It also coincides inside the golden pocket of Mondays range as well.
To me, this looks like a down/doji weekly candle that will be printed. Small doji weekly candles have a range of about 350-500 ticks from high to low. If Monday is indeed the high of the week, then 500 ticks down will be at 39,700 and at around 1.5 times the range expansion of Mondays high to low range.
I will place a sell limit at 40,150 on the hourly chart
I will place a stop loss of 75 ticks above the "high of the week" if it holds.
I will place my target at 1X range expansion at 296 ticks
DOW JONES: Channel Up targeting 41,400Dow Jones is supported by the 4H MA50 and just turned technically bullish on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 55.413, MACD = 58.400, ADX = 34.689). As long as it does, we are bullish, aiming at another +5.03% rise (TP = 41,400).
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Elliott Wave Analysis Expects Dow Futures (YM) to Pullback in WaShort Term Elliott Wave in Dow Futures (YM) suggests rally from 4.19.2024 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 4.19.2024 low, wave ((i)) ended at 38801 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 37866. Index extends higher again in wave ((iii)) with internal subdivision as an impulse in lesser degree. The 1 hour chart below shows the subdivision of wave ((iii)).
Up from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 38527 and dips in wave ii ended at 38037. Index then extended higher in wave iii towards 39127 and pullback in wave iv ended at 38936. Final leg wave v ended at 39781 which completed wave (i). Index then pullback in wave (ii) towards 39405 and extended higher in wave (iii) towards 40191. Wave (iv) pullback ended at 39955. Final leg wave (v) ended at 40213 which completed wave ((iii)) in higher degree. Expect wave ((iv)) pullback to unfold in 3 swing before Index resumes higher in wave ((v)). Near term, as far as pivot at 37847 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.
Dow Jones Weekly ATR EstimationsGoing through the weekly chart for the averages of how far Dow Jones can move in a week.
The last 84 weeks averaged out to 937 ticks. This lines up with the medium sized candles.
There are three types of weekly candles
1. Small Doji candle (28 occurrences)
2. Medium sized candle (47 occurrences)
3. Large expansion candle (9 occurrences)
This small set of data sampled tells me that the vast majority of weekly candles have a medium sized move between 700-1200 ticks with the average of all 84 weeks being 937 ticks.
Large sized expansion candles are rare with only 9 weekly candles exceeding 1400+ ticks
Small doji style candles are also fairly common with 28 weeks being between 350-550 ticks
Now that I know this information, the question is how to use it effectively in Live Time.
Trapped traders provides a great Short opportunity on DOW The plan for the session was to trade short off resistance on the DOW after an initial opening drive higher. The short side was the play and paid out nicely for patient sellers.
In the video I talk through the key Price Action for the move and prime trade areas on the DOW Index.
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YM short after sweeping Previous Week HighWe beautifuly took out Previous week high 20 points above! not random!
Manipulation mapping with Distribution didn't dissapointed. 👁🗨
SMT divergence with ES was also very good confluence to do short-term reversal.
Study that as me!
YM short after sweeping Previous Week HighWe beautifuly took out Previous week high 20 points above! not random!
Manipulation mapping with Distribution didn't dissapointed. 👁🗨
SMT divergence with ES was also very good confluence to do short-term reversal.
Study that as me!
YM to ATH!YM possible low of the week right know. took out 30 points below old low and tapped H4 BISI and H4 IFVG.
Dow futures - heading for further correctionCBOT_MINI:MYM1! Dow Futures have broken below the distributive uptrend channel and confirms the double top formation. Long-term MACD is bearish while mid-term stochastic has shown an oversold crossover. 23-period ROC is below the zero line and Ichimoku has shown first sign of bearish signal. Support is at 37,600
1/3 Average Weekly Range YMM20241/3 Average Weekly Range in New York AM Session sending us higher towards ATH, AWR acted like a true Support. 🔥
Short video of Lord Medz trade on NQ today.Dear Great Souls,
This is a video of Lord Medz trading MNQ live on a 5-second timeframe. In this video, I will demonstrate how I manage trades using anticipated swing highs and lows. For more information, please connect with me directly. Stay safe and stay strong.
Best regards,
Lord Medz
Break Down a Trading Session and Price Action Taking NotesIn the short video I show the price action from a session on the DOW JONES and the key price action that I see important for my daytrading.
This is a process I do each day to improve my trading and it helps to solidify in my mind what I want to see in the setups.
You will have to pause the video to read the notes but please enjoy.
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YM Wednesday Buy Low (IF it presents)If this sets up how I would like, then I am going to look for a buy low opportunity for a move higher through that lower high on the inside.
I will be entering in on the 15' chart and use a 50 tick stop. Target will be anywhere between 150-225 ticks
