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UNF1! trade ideas

Tricky Spot Thursday's candle closed above the prior day's high, reaching the weekly SIBI, overnight in the Asian session the price rallied, consolidated in London, and Reversed In the NY Session 4hr market structure is still bullish but at the top of the range creating a bearish reversal with high volume that created a bearish SIBI retesting value area high or the 4hr trading range/4hr Fixed Volume profile the 4hr bullish bars that traded away from POC showed an increase in volume but the bearish volume was higher m15 has two potential areas from long at 20,271.00 or at 20,140.00 but I'm being mindful of the 20,406.00 to 20,362.00 level that can act as resistance causing longs to get squeezed out of their positions I will review what happens overnight Since NQ is typically correlated with ES I will monitor both for direction confirmation and divergences and convergences
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by martiedirect
Nasdaq - 80% Probability Higher - GTP Reasons for Target (21,325) Being Hit: Strong Uptrend: The market is clearly forming higher highs and higher lows, indicating strong bullish momentum. Momentum: Buyers are currently in control of the market, with price action continuing to push higher. Interest Rate Expectations: Fed estimates of 2 more drops before Xmas which will provide further support for tech stocks and indices like Nasdaq. Risks/Barriers to the Target: Resistance at 20,750: A key resistance level could prevent the price from advancing quickly. Consolidation or a pullback might happen here. Macroeconomic News: Unexpected news (like inflation data or Fed comments) could cause short-term volatility, impacting the trend. Probability of Hitting 21,325: Estimated Probability: 80/100 This high probability assumes continued market momentum, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and successful breaks of nearby resistance levels.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by NZ_Shareman
2024-09-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Yesterday I promised you the breakout on Thursday and boi did we get one today. Problem for the bulls is, that they could not trap bears and they also could not close at the highs. That means, that the directional probability up or down is once again 50/50 (neutral). Most bull channels and wedges are still valid but if bears would have given up, we would not have seen 50-75% retracements of the leg up. Still bullish until bears print lower lows. nasdaq e-mini futures comment : Current narrative is that hedge funds are continuing to sell tech. You don’t need to know that. You can see it on the chart. The bear gap got smaller but is still open while other markets making daily new ath. Given the current overall market environment, I doubt bears can keep this selling up and market below 20600. Bulls printed the 4th consecutive daily bull bar. At some point one side will give up and I heavily favor the bulls. Bulls had the strong Globex bull breakout but the selling spike from the US open was unexpected and a big surprise in strength. Bulls pulled back exactly to the 50% retracement afterwards. Key level for more upside or more downside. current market cycle: Most dominant pattern is the broad bull channel and the nested bull wedge with the August and September lows. key levels: 20000 - 21600 bull case: Bulls want the retest of 21215 and have all the arguments on their side, once they close the bear gap to 20670. We are in W3 of this current bull trend and the measured move from W1 is around 21000. If you only look at the daily chart, do you honestly go “I want to sell this”. Ofc not. You want to get long. Only below 20000 many bulls will begin to doubt the strength of this move up. Invalidation is below 20000. bear case: Bear gap is the last argument for the bears but it’s so weak, I expect a give up bar tomorrow to close this week max bullish and have a clear buy signal going into next week. Not saying bears can not have a miracle reversal like they did on 2024-07-11 or 2024-08-22. Invalidation is above 19670. short term: Max bullish if we stay above 20000. Targets above are 19700 and then 21000/21215. medium-long term: Outlook was wrong. Bulls are currently having another shot at retesting the peak bubble highs to make another one. If we get there, it could be the short of a decade opportunity. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day : Long during Globex obviously where market held above the 5m 20ema for 270 points. Selling the US open was obviously the best trade but difficult imo. Market rallied so hard, that strong of a reversal is not common.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
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CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by Pajo_trading
NQ Bullish with Signs of a Potential Reversal in Early OctoberThe Nasdaq 100 ( CME_MINI:NQ1! ) futures continue to exhibit a strong uptrend, driven by market optimism and supportive economic factors. As seen on the chart, the Bonsai trend indicator remains bullish, signaling the ongoing upward momentum. However, caution is warranted as we approach a critical resistance zone, where multiple technical and external factors suggest the potential for a pullback. Key Technical Levels and Signals Resistance at 20,600 : The price is nearing a significant resistance zone between 20,500 and 20,600, where previous highs have been met with seller pressure. The market may struggle to break through this zone in the short term, leading to possible consolidation or retracement. Bearish Strength on Oscillators : The Bonsai OS is starting to signal an incoming bearish strength, where the oscillator fails to make new highs while the price continues to rise. This divergence suggests that the current bullish move may be losing momentum, increasing the probability of a reversal or correction in the near term. Short-Term Retracement : A retracement to the 19,800-20,000 region would be healthy for the overall trend, providing potential buying opportunities for traders waiting for a dip. This level aligns with previous support zones and retracement levels, making it a logical area for price to stabilize before another move upward. Geopolitical and Economic Factors Affecting NQ U.S. Elections and Tax Policy : The upcoming U.S. election between Vice President Harris and former President Trump is creating uncertainty around future tax policies, particularly regarding capital gains and unrealized gains taxation. Investors may start adjusting their portfolios as we get closer to October, historically a volatile month for the markets​. Global Conflicts and Economic Risks : Rising tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Taiwan add further geopolitical risk. Market participants are keeping a close eye on potential escalations, as these conflicts could shift sentiment toward a risk-off environment, impacting indices like the Nasdaq 100​. Fed Policy and Economic Data : The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut has temporarily buoyed the markets, but upcoming data releases—particularly around inflation and employment—could change the tone. Economic surprises in early October could lead to volatility, especially if the data fails to support the current bullish narrative​. Conclusion: Bullish But Cautious The overall Bonsai indicator continues to signal an uptrend, and the market looks poised to push higher if it can break through the 20,600 resistance zone. However, the oscillator's bearish divergence and external political risks suggest a potential reversal or at least a short-term correction in the first week of October. Traders should monitor these signals closely and consider adjusting their positions accordingly. Keep an eye on the VIX as well, which has been known to spike during periods of heightened uncertainty, offering opportunities to hedge against increased volatility​.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by bonsai_trade
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 9/26/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024 - PR High: 20255.25 - PR Low: 20232.00 - NZ Spread: 51.75 Key schedule economic events 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims Durable Goods Orders GDP 09:20 | Fed Chair Powell Speaks Breaking out towards ATHs, next stop 20600 pivot Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 9/26) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 341.04 - Volume: 25K - Open Int: 232K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -2.8% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19814 - Short: 17533 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2024Long
by mv3trader5
Bullish into Weekly SIBIWednesday's candle closed above the prior day's high, reaching the weekly high as well as the previous month's high, we could potentially see the price continue to rally into weekly sibi 4hr market structure is still bullish but after the rally, the price has now closed above 4hr swing-high 4hr Fixed Volume profile shows the POC is at the high of a price and now price action is moving away from that area in a bullish fashion m15 has two potential areas from long at 20,221.00 or at if the Asian session continues to expand we will have to see how London's action is traded especially if the price reaches the w-sibi first in the overnight session which could result in a NY session reversal Since NQ is typically correlated with ES I will monitor both for direction confirmation and divergences and convergences
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by martiedirect
2024-09-25 Nasdaq / Nas100Hello, this is ViViD. Let’s proceed with today’s NASDAQ analysis. First, let's review yesterday’s NASDAQ analysis results. I mentioned that if a breakout occurs above the resistance trendline, there could be a buying opportunity. If you entered at the yellow box area after the breakout, you could have made around $50 in profit, which equates to approximately $1,000 profit per lot. Additionally, a selling entry point was also reached. Based on the entry point, around $70 profit per lot was made, equivalent to about $1,400 per lot. The total profit for yesterday was approximately $2,400 per lot. Here is the daily chart of NASDAQ. Yesterday, NASDAQ slightly broke the previous high before dropping back down, changing its pattern from a pennant to a rising wedge. Although the buying pressure on the daily chart is strong, if it fails to break out with strong momentum, it is likely that the pattern will complete and a reversal could occur. This is today’s trading strategy. First, let's examine the sell perspective. If the price breaks below the rising trendline and the yellow box at the price level of 20,050.75, I recommend entering a short position. Breaking below the rising trendline and the short-term bounce zone in the red box could signal a drop to the lower end of NASDAQ’s trading range. In this case, the price could potentially drop to yesterday’s low around 19,956. If we consider the two blue boxes, yesterday’s low was slightly lower, but there was a strong rebound in that area, suggesting that support around 19,956 remains strong. Therefore, the target for the sell position would be near 19,956. Even if the market sees stronger selling pressure, support from the green box on the left needs to be broken before considering a move down to the purple box. My strategy is to target the 19,956 area for the initial sell, and if the market breaks below the green box, I would re-enter the sell trade and aim for the purple box. Now, for the buy perspective. In the case of buying, both a breakout of the resistance trendline and a breakout above the yellow box, which is around the 20,143 price level, should occur simultaneously to signal a trend reversal to the upside. The target for the buy would be around 20,190, which is conservative because the resistance between the 20,415–20,250 range is quite strong. It’s important to secure profits cautiously. There are no major economic indicators scheduled for release today. Therefore, the market might remain steady, following the flow from the European session. If the market moves in one direction, the trend may persist until the end of the session. Have a successful trading day. - ViViD -
CME_MINI:NQZ2024
by VIVID_EFFECT
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 9/25/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024 - PR High: 20189.00 - PR Low: 20173.75 - NZ Spread: 34.25 Key scheduled economic events 10:00 | New Home Sales 10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories Teasing weekly range breakout, high and low Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM 9/25) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 347.78 - Volume: 19K - Open Int: 228K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -4.0% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19814 - Short: 17533 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2024Short
by mv3trader5
Eye For Longs wiith Caution Tuesday's candle closed above prior day high, as well as reaching weekly high 4hr market structure is still bullish but after rally price failed to close above 4hr swing high 4hr Fixed Volume profile shows the POC is at the highs on the 4hr price attempted to move away from POC in a bullish fashion but could be a weak move due to the failed closure I want to see what develops over night to get a clearer picture but i do see a potential area for longs at 20,097.00 or 20,060.00 Since NQ is typically correlated with ES I will monitor both for direction confirmation and divergences and convergences
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by martiedirect
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 9/24/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024 - PR High: 20066.50 - PR Low: 20045.25 - NZ Spread: 47.75 Key schedule economic event 10:00 | CB Consumer Confidence Previous session polygraph style auction closed virtually unchanged Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM 9/24) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 373.40 - Volume: 32K - Open Int: 225K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -4.6% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19814 - Short: 17533 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2024
by mv3trader5
2024-09-24 Nasdaq / Nas100Hello, this is ViViD. Here is today’s Nasdaq analysis. This is the daily Nasdaq chart. As I mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, for further upward movement to happen, the price needs to break above the resistance level of the supply zone. This would allow for potential entry from a buying perspective. However, the price movement has been sideways due to the supply zone's resistance, which hasn't yet determined a clear direction. As we can see in the daily chart, the current pattern shows a pennant pattern, which could indicate a consolidation to the right before a potential continuation of the upward trend. On the contrary, it could also signify a peak, leading to a decline after breaking below the support level. In the Asian session, we observed a break of the upward trend line. You can see the breakdown in the blue box. However, the rebound zone after the break is noteworthy. The white trend line indicates that the price is making slightly higher lows, establishing a form of support. Thus, Nasdaq seems to be defending this zone. The key to focus on is whether the white short-term support line holds. The main takeaway is that while the trend is making higher lows and defending the price, the most critical point for a selling perspective is the break below the white support line at the lowest level of 20016.25. Now, for a buying perspective: The optimal entry point seems to be when the price breaks above the blue box zone, which corresponds to breaking both the price level and the resistance trend line. The reason 20127 is significant is that the white box shows two instances of resistance at this level, making a breakout here critical. Once the price breaks through, the targets would be at 20164, 20204, and 20264, with additional resistances along the way. However, this breakout could signal the pennant pattern's upward continuation, stabilizing the long-term trend for further upward momentum. Today, we have the CB Consumer Confidence data, so be cautious of any sharp market changes after the announcement. I hope you have a profitable day! - ViViD -
CME_MINI:NQZ2024
by VIVID_EFFECT