UNF1! trade ideas
NASDAQ 100 - Is the Downtrend Losing Steam? The market has been in a clear bearish trend, forming a descending channel with lower highs and lower lows. However, we are now witnessing signs of stabilization as price action begins to consolidate at a critical level.
🔍 Key Observations:
- The price has tested resistance twice around 20,800, failing to break higher. This signals strong selling pressure at this level.
- At the same time, the market has established a short-term support around 20,000, holding the price from making new lows.
- The structure suggests a possible double top formation, which could indicate another rejection and continuation of the bearish trend.
Possible Scenarios:
1️⃣ Bullish Breakout: If the price manages to break above resistance, we could see a trend reversal, leading to a potential recovery towards 21,000+.
2️⃣ Bearish Rejection: If resistance holds strong, another drop could follow, with price targeting the previous support zone or even lower lows.
3️⃣ Range Formation: If the market continues to test this zone without clear direction, we might enter a sideways consolidation phase before the next major move.
What do you think? Will NASDAQ break resistance or head lower?
#NASDAQ #Trading #MarketAnalysis #DoubleTop #BearishOrBullish
Scalper’s Paradise Part 2 – Insights on TransactionsThis is my second post and the continuation of the Scalper’s Paradise series . In this installment, I’ll dive into transactions—more commonly known as volume . While everyone is aware of it, few truly utilize it effectively. From a retail trader’s perspective, volume is often misunderstood and misused. That’s why today, I’ll break it down and provide exceptional insights, drawing from my institutional experience as a professional trader.
First, let’s clarify what volume really is. Volume is simply the total number of transactions between buyers and sellers. For example, if one buyer wants to purchase a single stock and a seller is willing to sell that stock, the transaction is recorded as one, meaning the volume reflects 1.
Now, if we see that the volume for a given period is 1,000 traded stocks, this means there were 1,000 buyers and 1,000 sellers. It’s crucial to understand that there are always an equal number of buyers and sellers in any transaction.
With this in mind, we can debunk a common misconception: when we see high volume and price movement, it’s incorrect to say there were "a lot of buyers" or "a lot of sellers"—because both sides are always equal. The real reason behind price movements is a different story, and one that I’ll cover in a future post.
Now, let’s take a look at a chart that’s particularly useful for day trading, especially when combined with the volume indicator.
Here, you can see a 10-second chart, which is particularly effective for spotting algorithmic trades used by institutions.
Now, I’ve marked the high-volume areas with a vertical line. Remember, high volume indicates a significant level of market activity.
Now, I’ve marked the candles that had the highest relative trading volumes.
But what can we do with all this information?
Why is high volume so important?
First , high volume disrupts the market. It clearly signals that a major player is in need of liquidity. The reasons behind this can vary, as discussed in Part 1 of this series, but for now, let’s focus on the key takeaway: big players need volume.
When a market participant requires large volume, their activity becomes visible in chunks, revealing parts of their trading strategy. This is exactly why we use 10-second charts—to spot these institutional trades more easily. Once we identify them, we can determine the price levels where they are beginning to accumulate or distribute their positions.
The second reason is more of an institutional strategy rather than something easily executed by retail traders—but I’ll explain it anyway. During my time as an institutional trader, my performance was often evaluated based on how efficiently I could accumulate volume over time. This required finding other large players in the market.
Let’s say I needed to take a long position. To do so, I required sellers on the other side. If I spotted a large player selling, I could use their selling pressure to gradually accumulate my position around their activity. This strategy allowed me to secure better prices over time by executing fewer, larger trades instead of aggressively chasing liquidity.
Ultimately, this is the core objective of an institutional trader—maximizing position size while maintaining optimal pricing.
How Can Retail Traders Use This Information to Improve Their Trading?
1) Identify high-volume areas on a 10-second chart.
2) Mark these levels on your chart.
3) Wait for a breach of these levels and trade in the direction of the breakout.
If there is no breakout, you can align yourself with the large player instead.
For example, if a big player is accumulating buy orders, mark that level and observe whether they continue to hold their position. If they do, you can go long alongside them. However, if other traders (as I did in my institutional trading days) start pushing against that big player, wait for a breach of your marked level and look for short opportunities instead.
Keep in mind that we are talking about day trading and scalping, meaning these are short-term trades. The goal is to capitalize on immediate price movements rather than holding positions for extended periods.
Here, you can see the levels we discussed earlier. Notice how the market clearly reacts to these easily identifiable levels—though trading them successfully is not as simple.
I always use order flow and Level 2 data to confirm my trade ideas.
Wishing you good luck and plenty of valuable insights from my post!
Marco
NQ Shorts - IntradayI have been posting this same model on all the trade ideas and you can see my previous post on how those have played out, including swing opportunities. Out of 90% of my position as the PDL was my first target that was obvious, leaving runner for the low of the week. Let's see if it gets there.
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/06/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/06/2025
📈20420 20515
📉20235 20140
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
500+ Points caught on NQ! IFVG + OB Support.
Caught a massive 500+ point move on NQ, entering off an Inverted Fair Value Gap (IFVG) and Order Block (OB) support. The setup was clean, and price respected key levels perfectly. Watch the breakdown of my trade and how it played out!
💯 100 likes and I’ll post the full trading session with all trades!
Disclaimer:
This video is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Trading futures involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and trade responsibly.
200pts secured from IFVG's 50% > SSL Targeted Caught a 200-point move on MNQ from the 50% level of a Fair Value Gap (FVG) that previously acted as an Inverted FVG (IFVG). My target was sell-side liquidity, and the setup played out perfectly. Watch the breakdown of the trade and my thought process in real-time!
💯 100 likes and I'll post the entire trading session with all trades taken!
Disclaimer:
This video is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Trading futures involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and trade responsibly.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 3/6/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025
- PR High: 20643.50
- PR Low: 20589.00
- NZ Spread: 122.0
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims
Maintaining previous 2 session range, daily inside print
- Still advertising rotation off 20200 inventory
- Auction hovering at previous session close
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 3/6)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47%
- Session Open ATR: 431.72
- Volume: 20K
- Open Int: 280K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -8.0% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22667
- Mid: 21525
- Short: 19814
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/05/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/05/2025
📈20515 20610
📉20330 20240
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
2025-03-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaq
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Market made a lower high. Most important fact today. Higher low also but for bears it was more important than for the bulls. Range is contracting between 20300 and 20730, so play it. News bombs will likely determine what we will do tomorrow. Embrace the volatility. Trade small and take profits along the way.
current market cycle: trading range - only daily closes below 20000 mark the end of this bull trend
key levels: 20300 - 20730 (above 20730 we will likely go for 21k / below 20300 is 20000)
bull case: Bulls are in reach to break the bear channel and melt higher again. They need to break above tomorrow or bears might do the unthinkable and go below 20000 into the weekend. We have corrected 10% from the ath and a bounce would be a bit more fitting than continuation. My W2 target is around 21200. Very important for bulls is to print higher lows tomorrow, means staying above 20215.
Invalidation is below 20215.
bear case: Bears continue to have deep intraday bear legs so bulls are not too happy in buying high, which is probably why we are contracting again. Bears want to continue this sharp sell off into the weekend, likely below the big round number 20000. They are still in control until the bear channel is broken.
Invalidation is above 21740.
short term: Neutral but I kinda slightly favor the bulls since we are at the 2024-11, 2025-02 and 2025-01 support. If the bear channel continues, so be it. Happily shorting this for 20k then but I’d be more surprised if we do not make new highs above 20740 tomorrow and test 21k again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000.
trade of the day: Range was clear and given, have to play it. Both sides made good money today.
US Market Reversal EmergedLast Friday marked the final trading day of February. I always take the opportunity to analyze the monthly chart closely.
We saw an inverted hammer. From the cash chart, clearly, we can see the inverted hammer. Beyond that, it also appears to be a potential double top for the Nasdaq.
E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options
Ticker: NQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $5.00
Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
NQ Range (03-03-25)The NAZ did hit the 20,695 "Turd" Target in last week's Post. Nearly a 2,000 point drop when you look at 2/21 (Friday) to the low of 2/28 (Friday). From late Friday we have a 500 point move up (normal), need to see if the Monday Long push (2nd half of typical Friday) takes place.
NAZ is falling in a Diablo, Yellow arrows are KL's (long to and short from), Whites are short to and long from. NAZ is basically range bound and will need a Black Swan type action to get it anywhere close to any white arrows below. BTD/FOMO & Go O/N Rig Team. The Overnight price action and range should be primary and trend up. for now the O/N is still The BOSS.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 3/5/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025
- PR High: 20595.25
- PR Low: 20531.75
- NZ Spread: 142.0
Key scheduled economic events:
08:15 | ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
09:45 | S&P Global Services PMI
10:00 | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories
Heavy swings previous session but closed practically unchanged
- Clearing key long-term zones between 20900 to 20672
- Advertising rotation to 20800 off 20000 to 20200 inventory
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 3/5)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47%
- Session Open ATR: 434.50
- Volume: 44K
- Open Int: 287K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -8.5% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22667
- Mid: 21525
- Short: 19814
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
MNQLooking at MNQ on the 30m time frame we can see that price has changed to a bullish bias and has now been surfing above the 5ema and the 10ema.
During NY session tomorrow 3/5/25 I want to see bullish price action above the 20324.00 area and see some opportunities develop inside the 30m time frame like the 5m and 1m.
I am BULLISH on MNQ!
Elliott Wave View: Nasdaq (NQ) Has Reached Support AreaNasdaq (NQ) has reached the extreme area from 12.16.2024 peak and thus the Index may see support soon for a 3 waves rally at least. Near term, decline from 2.18.2025 peak is in progress as a 5 waves diagonal. Down from 2.18.2025 peak, wave 1 ended at 22102.75 and wave 2 rally ended at 22299.75. The Index then nested lower in wave 3. Down from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 21951 and wave ((ii)) ended at 22245.5. The Index extended lower in wave ((iii)) towards 21652.75 and wave ((iv)) ended at 21813. Final wave ((v)) lower ended at 20990 which completed wave 3 in higher degree.
Wave 4 rally ended at 21409.25. Final wave 5 lower ended at 20460.5 which completed wave (1) of ((C)) in higher degree. Rally in wave (2) ended at 21123.53 and wave (3) lower ended at 20075.25. Rally in wave (4) is proposed complete at 20732.5. Near term, as far as pivot at 21123.53 high stays intact, expect the Index to extend lower in wave (5). The extreme area from 12.16.2024 peak comes at 19452 – 20543 where the current decline can end and the Index can see support.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed lower as market volatility increased due to tariff concerns. Although the index dropped below the 240-day moving average, it formed a lower wick, indicating an attempt to establish a short-term bottom. On continuous futures, the 240-day MA is slightly below 20,000, meaning that the 20,100–20,000 zone is a key support area where a technical rebound is likely following the recent sharp decline. If the market falls into this zone, it could present a swing buying opportunity. Since the daily MACD and signal line are dropping steeply, a sideways consolidation period may be necessary to reduce their angle and separation before further directional movement.
Given that the Nasdaq rebounded strongly after forming a lower wick yesterday, a pullback in pre-market trading could provide a buy-the-dip opportunity. Additionally, potential bullish catalysts include today’s ADP Non-Farm Employment data and Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report.
On the 240-minute chart, the index is forming a bullish divergence and attempting a golden cross, reinforcing the buy-the-dip strategy at current levels. Therefore, chasing shorts is not advisable, as the Nasdaq has entered a more attractive buying zone. A range-trading approach remains effective, with a preference for buying near support.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed lower, finding support near previous demand zones. Despite the continued downtrend, the $66–67 range remains a strong support area, making it a potential rebound zone for technical buyers. However, on the daily chart, the MACD and signal line are sloping downward sharply, meaning that selling pressure could intensify further. Long positions should be initiated as close to the lower support zone as possible.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has formed another bearish crossover, confirming strong selling momentum. However, when compared to the previous MACD level near $68.50, price has declined further, but the MACD has not dropped as low, suggesting a potential bullish divergence. Since this zone has historically acted as strong support, a buy-the-dip strategy remains preferable, but traders should remain cautious of today’s Crude Oil Inventory report, which could lead to increased volatility.
Gold
Gold closed higher, successfully rebounding from support. Yesterday, gold reached the previously projected target of 2,925, aligning with the 240-day moving average characteristics.
If gold continues higher, the 2,940 level will act as resistance, as this is a previous supply zone on the daily chart. Therefore, further upside should be monitored carefully before making new decisions. Since the daily MACD and signal line remain widely separated, this is not an ideal condition for chasing long positions. Even if gold extends its rally, a pullback is likely, making buying dips a safer approach.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD formed a golden cross, leading to a sharp rally. As expected, price reached the 60-day MA following the 240-day MA bounce. However, while the MACD has moved above zero, the signal line is still below zero, meaning that another corrective phase could occur before further upside. Additionally, there is a possibility that gold could revisit the 2,850 support zone to form a double-bottom structure, making buying dips a better strategy than chasing breakouts. Overall, a range-trading strategy—buying low and selling high—remains effective, and today’s ADP Non-Farm Employment data could introduce market volatility.
As market conditions shift, risk management remains crucial. Stay disciplined, adapt to volatility, and trade with confidence. Wishing you a successful trading day! 🚀
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NQ_Daily time frame_Bullish_+15,000 TicksNQ Daily time frame is in an up trend, making higher
highs and higher low. The market is starting to bounce
bullish off the daily up trend line. There is an up
Fibonacci with an extension price point 24662.25
about +15,948 ticks above the market. It will be a
good idea to turn to the one hour time frame and look
for long ideas in the buy zone towards the daily up
trend line.