Still looks like a good short when it reaches upper borderOk, now it moved a bit, and my previous sell and TP not actual, but still think by the end of month it is a a good short.
UNF1! trade ideas
Lower Technology Sector Pulls Cryptos LowerCryptocurrencies are trading to the downside, and we are seeing some sharp intraday sell-offs, most likely triggered by risk-off flows. As you know, normally when stocks are down, cryptos tend to move in the same direction, especially when there are significant sell-offs in the stock market like we've seen over the last few days, triggered by missed earning reports and lower technology sector. It's not surprising that we are seeing a pullback, which we have been warning about in our past updates.
Some of the coins are experiencing very sharp sell-offs and deeper retracements, while other stronger coins are hitting interesting support levels. Even Bitcoin, the most important cryptocurrency, is at a very interesting first area of support. However, looking at the total crypto market cap, there is a sharp one-leg down, suggesting a more complex and deeper ABC retracement before the market may really find new buyers. There is first tecnical strong support around the $2.24 trillion level.
Looking at the NASDAQ 100, there seems to be a very strong impulse away from the highs, so toš is in, but we see prices possibly in the 5th wave approaching some support around 19,000. If we get an ABC rally in the near term, that's when cryptos could also stabilize.
GH
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 7/25/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024
- PR High: 19304.50
- PR Low: 19257.50
- NZ Spread: 105.0
Key scheduled economic events
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims
- Durable Goods Orders
- GDP
Continuing strong value decline
- Recent political news taking the blame
- Broken 2 daily pivots, ~20400 & ~19800
- ~1000 points from 20-Keltner Avg
Evening Stats (As of 11:15 PM 7/24)
- Weekend Gap: +0.25% (filled)
- Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 323.73
- Volume: 32K
- Open Int: 250K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -8.2% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 18675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
2024-07-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: On such a strong bear day, there is no need for any analysis on lower time frames. The 15m 20ema held since Globex and selling anywhere could have made you a lot of money today. I updated my daily chart to show the most reasonable next targets. The old ath was 18223. So another 1000 drop for a retest of that. Just let that sink in. Rough outlook for the next months from me is the following, bounce 19200ish for 19600 but staying inside the bear channel. Touch of the 2023-10 bull trend line around 19000 where we probably see a bigger bounce and more sideways movement. After that is pure bull slaughter down to 18000 and from there I will calculate new targets but the bull trend line from the 2020 and 2023 will most likely be hit in 2025.
current market cycle: climactic bull trend with overshoots is done. Market is in a deeper pullback which is a bear trend on a smaller tf but we will most likely transition into a trading range first before we enter the big trading range on the monthly chart again.
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls see the 3 pushes down inside a tight bear channel on the daily chart. The last pullback was good for 400 points and they want to rally from the 50% pb of the bull trend that started in April and which is most likely over. We are also trading right at the weekly 20ema. They are technically inside the bull channel which lead to the ath, so their bull premise is still valid. Odds favor the bulls for a pullback at 19200.
Pullback targets above are 19600-19700
Invalidation is below 18900.
bear case: Bears are back with a vengeance. Very tight bear channel down with huge bear bars closing on their lows. Bears are in full control of the market and their next target is to trade back below 19000 and hit the bull trend line from October. They just reached the 50% pb, weekly 20ema and the lower bear channel line. 3 good reasons to take profits by the bears and let the market have a pullback, so they can short higher again.
Invalidation is above 21000.
short term: Neutral. I think we can hit 18800 and/or the bull trend line. Can we go deeper? Not likely but anything can happen. Odds favor the bulls for a bouce.
medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged since 2024-06
current swing trade: Short since 20800. Update: closed the swing short at 19250. Hope you made some.
trade of the day: Sell anywhere and go away until US close.
UpdatedIt looks like we have reached a very strong gap on the daily and weekly. I tend to think today we will be bullish. I will study the market further and keep you updated.
Today's analysisThat's pretty much the analysis for today. We have a very difficult market to analyze. The dollar and the NQ are going in the same direction. That makes analysis very difficult. Today I think we're bearish.
Week of July 21 - NDX/YM/RUT/CL/BTC/Real Estate The past 2 weeks were what a lot of perma-bulls were citing as "market rotation" - when I honestly think it was nothing more than a short squeeze in small caps and on the Dow.
This weeks post will be a lengthy one as I will cover many different asset classes - as it looks as though the market is setting up for a broad sell of.
The Nasdaq came perfectly down into our decision zone - and now we need to wait to see what the next move is.
From here - I could see NQ going either way - and it would make total sense. There might also be a more mechanical game being played here. If they can hold the NDX steady or bid - then they can dump the rest of the market - and the net carnage on the SPX will be somewhat muted.
The DJI and the Small Cap Russel 2000 - both had some gnarly weekly reversal candles last week. The DJI and RUT both have very similar setups - so I will be covering the DJI,
The Dow now has a really large weekly rejection block formed with that last weekly candle - and it looks like they still want to respect that weekly trendline.
I still maintain that the DOL for the DJI is those yearly lows ~2500 pts lower
Crude Oil rolled contracts to Sept last week - so it morphed the charts a little bit.
From HERE - I want to see oil retrace to 77 - and then pop to take out the Sept Contract highs ~ 84.4
The 10yr continues its march lower - its a slow grind but its doing what we expect.
When you have giant liquid instruments like the bond market or FX - things tend to move slow - but they are somewhat reliable.
Bitcoin has now complete its full retrace on the weekly chart. From HERE - I want to see it drop to take out the June lows.
Real Estate also has a chart similar to the small caps. I think we just saw a massive short squeeze occur - just in time for a broad based sell off across the market.
Everyone and their dog is 100% on board with the David Hunter Melt-Up call , and I can see why. But I think this rally we saw in Small caps was more of a short covering squeeze, rather than a broadening of the market.
Add to the fact that Japan is now openly and directly intervening in Yen markets - this puts massive pressure on the carry-trade.
So here is the setup I am watching for this week;
I want to see NQ pick a direction and show me confirmation via h4 structure. Half of me is bullish NDX just as it will be used as a mop to soak up capitol that is getting rinsed out of Small caps and the DJI.
I Want to see The DJI and RUT continue to sell off
I want to see Oil drop to 77 and respect it, providing an 8% bounce. IF we simply break down from here (and rightfully so - the global economy is weakening) - then we will see it via the weekly chart market structure shift.
I want to see YM, Real Estate, Bitcoin, and Small caps start moving lower. I think this is the start of a nice market-wide correction
Until next week - We'll be watching.
14 risks possible. Not bad huh?14 risks possible. Not bad huh?
Always stick to your risk parameters.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 7/24/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024
- PR High: 19883.00
- PR Low: 19786.25
- NZ Spread: 216.25
Key scheduled economic events
09:45 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
- S&P Global Services PMI
10:00 | New Home Sales
10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories
Massive gap down between sessions
- Racing to close weekend gap, closes <19710
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM 7/24)
- Weekend Gap: +0.25% (open < 19707)
- Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 299.82
- Volume: 38K
- Open Int: 243K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -5.7% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 18675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
IS Nq taking a tumble? Nq is falling from this trend possible headed into a 10% correction. Waiting for a reaction around April OPEN. For now it's great risk reward to target TP 1on this 2 hour timeframe
NQ Trend BreakNQ is still holding on to its uptrend from April, but barely. After GOOGL and TSLA earnings, NQ has broken below the uptrend for now. Not by much though, I think it can really get moving if there is a strong break tomorrow and judging by the current activity, it does seem quite bearish. We'll find out soon enough, I'll be watching the 19.3k area for a first target.
Daily Recap - Semiconductors, Mag 7, and CryptoHere's some thoughts on today's action and some updates on some of my recent bearish ideas. So far it's a negative reaction for GOOGL and TSLA after earnings, so it looks like QQQ will be gapping down, but there's a long way to go until open.
Still having some audio issues with my mic making crackling and popping sounds. Trying to figure it out, but I think I mitigated it enough to make this video presentable.
nq shortHead & shoulders formed at this top area, should be a good scalp down to the shown price and then ride the wave up for a double bottom up run.
MNQU2024 Demand Zone for Limit EntryThis a zone of more willing buyers than sellers followed by an explosive rally. I am predicting price will pullback and bounce from this area in green. I set up two targets (a 1:1 & 5:1 Reward to Risk ratio), a buy limit entry price, and stop loss to set rules in place for the trade.
MNQ - today's trade set upalready made the day's wage but wanted to see how the rest of the day plays out on this daily to 15min local levels of interests
NQ Main ObjectiveDidn't participate yet as price did not drop low enough for an entry for me personally, however, there's a chance it drops into a 1H BISI and continues higher targeting that High Annotated. Though that doesn't NEED to happen, just something I'm looking for which will allow me to enter
A new dayConsidering that on the daily we took 2 important sellside, today we will be bullish. I think we will be bullish until we reach 50% of the daily gap that was formed following the drastic market downturn.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 7/23/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024
- PR High: 19998.25
- PR Low: 19973.00
- NZ Spread: 56.25
Key economic calendar event
10:00 | Existing Home Sales
Inventory response back to 20000 value area
Evening Stats (As of 10:25 PM 7/22)
- Weekend Gap: +0.25% (open > 19707)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 298.08
- Volume: 19K
- Open Int: 249K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -5.7% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 18675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Buyside taken, sellside pendingYou can see price taking out significant buyside liquidity with sellside being built up. It shouldn't take too long to start digging into the trendline.
Buyers have returnedBuyers have returned in the S&P 500 on Monday or is this a short covering rally. If buyers are present, look for follow-through to the upside on Tuesday.
OHLC Stat Map + Average Range Levels Cooked-Manipulation was broken and turned from resistance to support target was simple 1/3AWR+
20240719 NQI anticipate one more ss raid and TGIF during the last hour 3 to 4pm. The upside move with bs raid into the NWOG seems to be very reasonable for the TGIF narrative.
