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UNF1! trade ideas

NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 7/15/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024 - PR High: 20590.00 - PR Low: 20508.00 - NZ Spread: 183.5 Key economic calendar event 12:00 | Fed Chair Powell Speaks Holding inside Friday's range, above the close - Wide first hour (PR) range with high vol open Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM 7/15) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 269.80 - Volume: 28K - Open Int: 261K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -1.9% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19814 - Short: 18675 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2024
by mv3trader5
Un used level of support 200’sPrice will do a lq grab most like ley at the point of resistance If price can hold at the daily trendline which A. Is a lq grab under neath which makes, sense cause… its at B. At supporting wicks at the bottom and plus where big buyers came in. The day before and weeks have been bullish so most like price will return to 800’s if… C. Price holds at that level of support not used yet, confirming a wedge pattern. It should stop for a second we can see on out 30 second chart. Place buys above the key level but I feel its worth agressive ascaling have size then half size in. Or have a an order waiting there for it with our set amount. I feel like its feeling good.
CME_MINI:NQU2024Long
by jonas32101
1
Navigating Nasdaq: Key Levels and Fed Insights for July 15, 2024As we approach the trading week, all eyes are on the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, scheduled for 12 PM noon on Monday, July 15, 2024. Traders are keenly anticipating any signals that could provide direction for the Nasdaq index, especially given the current technical setup. On the 4-hour timeframe chart, the Nasdaq is exhibiting critical levels that traders should monitor closely. We have identified a bullish scenario above the 20,330 mark. If the price maintains above this level, it could signal continued upward momentum, potentially leading to further gains. Conversely, a bearish scenario becomes prominent below the 21,000 level, suggesting that traders should be cautious of downward movements if the price falls below this threshold. Additionally, there is a significant supply area above the current price, formed after a break of structure around the 20,580 level. This supply zone is crucial as it could act as a barrier to further upward movement. Traders should be aware that interactions with this zone could lead to potential reversals or consolidations. In summary, as we await Chairman Powell's speech, these technical levels provide a roadmap for navigating the Nasdaq. Staying informed and vigilant will be key to capitalizing on potential market movements in the week ahead. Happy trading!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by MOTIONCAPITALTRADING
Week of July 7 NQ/10Y/CL/GCA new batch of fresh record highs to start Q3! Last week, we were looking for longs and we got them to TP at ATH for a solid 500 handle move in NQ. From HERE - it gets a lot trickier, but lets start to walk through what we are looking for. Nasdaq To ME - the governing HTF Draw on Liquidity (DOL) is still the fresh FVG that was created on the quarterly chart. We saw back in Jan (Q1) and Apr (Q2) - they attacked these IRLs in fast and furious fashion early in the quarter. With us now at ATH on NQ - I can't long anything up here. THIS WEEK - I am looking for shorts to take NQ back to the 19.7k area. This would give us a h4 and weekly long Turtle Soup setup for those brave enough - but I am still looking at that Quarterly chart which has a draw down to th 19k area. I'm looking for NQ shorts this week. Hopefully we get something really aggressive and they dump NQ 5% and we can start looking for the HTF draw down at 18.5k - but lets keep focused and take things 1 week at a time. 10yr Rates continued to fall this week - which is what is jucing the markets. That being said, I'm still looking for the 10yr to march down to ~3.8% before any kind of meaningful bounce. This is because the economy is starting to roll over, inflation is coming down - and the bond market knows it. Oil had quite the week! We have a Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico that is headed for Houston by Monday - so I expect a lot of this to be Hurricane premium. I am STILL looking for a move lower in oil - we just need to sweep the 85/85 area - hopefully this week. Once Oil finally does roll over, this will confirm the bond markets stance of lower inflation and energy prices driven by a weakening global economy. Gold had a steller week. I don't have any real clear bias on a weekly chart from here - but I would REALLY like to see the 2304 lows swept before the big move higher. There is a TON of liquidity down there (stops) that I can't imagine the Market Makers really want to leave intact before the real move higher. Baero's Take - We are truly seeing some historic stuff in markets right now, and the market is insanely bifurcated. Mag 7: +48% YTD S&P 493: +7.5% Russell: just went red for the year again Between the Cyclical performers (metals and energy are late stage performers) and the massive narrowing of the market - we are way over due for a 5-10% correction. I think once we get our well-deserved correction - there will be one final swing long entry to run us into the EOQ. I plan on being flat most of swing stock positions ahead of the election, as I think the greatest bear market in the history of finance - will come in Q4 into 2025. I fully expect that the highs we print on indexes this year - won't be revisited for decades - if ever. The madness will go on - until it doesn't. Nobody rings a bell at the top - which is why we take it week by week. So here is the setup I am watching for this week; I want to see NQ drop back to a weekly IRL level and run the h4/weekly TS for potential long entries ~ 19.8k. This is the EXACT same type of setup we saw last Monday. I want to see oil take out the 85/86 level and then reverse hard - this will confirm the bond market deflationary stance as the global economy weakens. I am still waiting for gold to sweep the 2304 equal lows for a long entry. Until next week - We'll be watching.
CME_MINI:NQU2024Short
by Baero-Trading
NASDAQ - BUY THE DIP Impact on Nasdaq and Broader Market Sentiment 1. Dollar Weakness and Yen Surge The sharp drop in the US Dollar and the surge in the Japanese Yen after another suspected BOJ intervention at the same time of the news release of the drop in the US Jobless Claims and CPI and should be short-lived, the last 2 interventions over the last 2 months have all eventuated to nothing and undone. 2. Interest Rate Expectations The market is now pricing in a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with another cut likely by December. Lower interest rates generally support higher Stock prices as borrowing costs decrease and corporate profitability improves. This is typically bullish for growth stocks, which dominate the Nasdaq. 3. Inflation Data The latest CPI data showing a decrease in consumer prices suggests that inflationary pressures are easing. This could be positive for the Nasdaq as it reduces the chance of the Fed having to maintain higher rates, which has been the headwind for the recent drive-up of tech stocks particularly pricing in the cut way ahead of time. 4. Market Reaction Although the Nasdaq initially dropped on the news, the dip may be seen as a mean reversion and correction to pick-up stops, providing a buying opportunity for investors who believe in the long-term growth potential of these tech stocks. 5. AI and Tech FOMO The ongoing FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) related to AI and other tech advancements also continues to drive the Nasdaq higher. This underlying trend is likely to persist as long as there is Investment money on the sidelines and there always is. Conclusion Despite the short-term volatility and initial drop in response to the latest economic data, the overall outlook for the Nasdaq remains positive due to the underlying strength in the labor market, easing inflation pressures, and the prospect of lower interest rates. The ongoing enthusiasm for AI and tech innovations further supports the bullish case. That's the trouble with having to sleep u miss a few moves : )
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by NZ_Shareman
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 7/12/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024 - PR High: 20450.00 - PR Low: 20420.00 - NZ Spread: 67.0 Key economic calendar event 08:30 | PPI Much needed rotation off ATH >2% - Retraced to prev Friday lows Evening Stats (As of 1:35 AM 7/12) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 261.46 - Volume: 34K - Open Int: 264K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -2.7% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19814 - Short: 18675 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2024Short
by mv3trader5
Making $90 in 3 minutesThis trade here was a 4:1 trade idea we had. Today is Thursday and we saw the market trade higher and take BSL. On the Daily chart we see a major Bearish Engulfing candle, we also had the blue are which is a previous bearish OB that was used as support previously and then was broken -- I then expected this area to be used as resistance. We then saw the Breaker block created within this Blue OB area which conveniently enough was also near/within the Daily Gap high and Low. Taking the fib from high to low we entered at exactly 0.618 for the sell after the 3 candle confirmation.
CME_MINI:MNQU2024Short
by BDripTradess
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 7/11/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024 - PR High: 20899.00 - PR Low: 20880.50 - NZ Spread: 41.5 Key economic calendar events 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims - Core CPI (x3) 13:00 | 30-Year Bond Auction ATH climb continues, holding prev session close Evening Stats (As of 11:35 PM 7/10) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 234.83 - Volume: 17K - Open Int: 273K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -0.2% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19814 - Short: 18675 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2024Short
by mv3trader5
Nasdaq's Stellar Returns, Potential Risks AheadThe Nasdaq-100 has been a stellar performer since its debut in 1985, rising 22,900% (with dividends reinvested) for a 14.8% compounded annual total rate of return. By comparison, the S&P 500 returned 7,200% over the same period with dividends reinvested, an 11.5% compounded return (Figure 1). Figure 1: Since the inception of the Nasdaq-100 index in 1985, it has outperformed the S&P Source: Bloomberg Professional (XNDX and SPXT) However, the Nasdaq’s outperformance can partly be attributed to higher risk levels. It has been consistently more volatile than the S&P 500 (Figure 2) and has been subject to much greater drawdowns. On March 28, 2000, Nasdaq began a drawdown that reached -81.76% on August 5, 2002 (Figure 3). The total return index didn’t hit a new high-water mark until February 12, 2015. It also had a sharper drawdown during the 2022 bear market. Figure 2: The Nasdaq-100 has nearly always been more volatile than the S&P 500 Source: Bloomberg Professional (XNDX and SPXT), CME Economic Research Calculations Figure 3: From 2000 to 2002, the Nasdaq-100 fell by nearly 82% and didn’t recover until 2015. Source: Bloomberg Professional (XNDX and SPXT), CME Economic Research Calculations A large part of the reason for the Nasdaq’s greater overall return, higher volatility and its heightened susceptibility to deep and long drawdowns is its dependence on one sector: information technology. Since at least the 1990s, Nasdaq has been nearly synonymous with the tech sector. While nearly every sector has at least some presence in the Nasdaq, since its launch in 1999 it has always had a near-perfect correlation with the S&P 500 Information Technology Index (the basis for the S&P E-Mini Technology Select Sector futures launched in 2011). That correlation has never fallen below +0.9 and has sometimes been as high as +0.98. In the past 12 months the correlation has been +0.95 (Figure 4). Figure 4: The Nasdaq-100 has always had extremely high correlations with the tech sector Source: Bloomberg Professional (NDX, S5INFT, S5UTIL, S5ENRS, S5FINL, S5HLTH, S5CONS, S5COND, S5MATR, S5INDU, S5TELS) The preponderance of technology stocks in the Nasdaq is largely a function of history. Nasdaq was founded in 1971 as the world’s first electronic stock market and it began to attract technology companies, in part, because it had more flexible listing requirements regarding revenue and profitability than other venues. Over time the technology ecosystem settled largely on this market and came to dominate the Nasdaq-100 Index. Those who need to minimize tracking risks with respect to the S&P 500 Information Technology Index can do so with the Select Sector futures. However, those who wish to increase or decrease exposure to the technology sector more generally, and for whom tracking risks is a less of a concern can easily increase or reduce their exposure with the Nasdaq-100 futures. Also launched in June 1999 were E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures, which are now turning 25 years old. The contracts caught on quickly, and today trade at more than 668K contracts or $60 billion in notional value each day. E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures offer capital-efficient exposure to the Nasdaq-100 index, and allow investors to trade and track one NQ futures contract versus 100 stocks to achieve nearly identical exposure. These futures also help mitigate risk against the top-heavy nature of the Nasdaq-100 index, where the so-called Magnificent Seven companies—Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, Google-parent Alphabet and Tesla—have dominated recently. Broad exposure to this index acts as a hedge if the Magnificent Seven stocks decline. The Nasdaq has also correlated highly in recent years with consumer discretionary stocks as well as telecoms. By contrast, it has typically low correlations with traditional high-dividend sectors such as consumer staples, energy and utilities which tend to be listed on other exchanges. The exception to this rule is during down markets, when stocks tend to become more highly correlated. The Nasdaq also has very different interest rate sensitivities than its peers. For starters, high short-term interest rates seem to benefit the Nasdaq-100 companies as many of them have large reserves of cash that are earning high rates of return by sitting in T-Bills and other short-term maturities. This is a sharp contrast to the Russell 2000 index, which has suffered as Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes have increased the cost of financing for smaller and mid-sized firms, which borrow from banks rather than bond holders and don’t usually have substantial cash reserves. By contrast, the Nasdaq has shown a very negative sensitivity to higher long-term bond yields. Many of the technology stocks in the Nasdaq-100 are trading at high earnings multiples. Some have market capitalization exceeding $1 trillion. Higher long-term bond yields are a potential threat because much the value of these corporations is what equity analysts might refer to as their “value in perpetuity,” meaning beyond any reasonable forecast horizon. Typically, such earnings are discounted using long-term bond yields and the higher those yields go, the lower the net present value of those future earnings. Additionally, higher long-term bond yields can also induce investors to switch out of highly volatile and expensive equity portfolios into the relatively less volatile, fixed- income securities. The Nasdaq’s high sensitivity to long-term bond yields may explain why the index sold off so sharply in 2022 alongside a steep fall in the price of long-dated U.S. Treasuries, whose yields were rising in anticipation of Fed tightening and due to concerns about the persistence of inflation. By contrast, the Nasdaq has done well since October 2022 despite the Fed continuing to raise short-term rates through July 2023 and subsequently keeping those rates high. On the one hand, many of the cash-rich Nasdaq companies are benefitting from higher returns on their holdings of short-term securities. On the other hand, they are also benefitting from the fact that higher short-term rates have steadied long-term bond yields by making it clear that the Fed is taking inflation seriously. This isn’t to suggest that the Nasdaq is immune from downside risks. History shows that the risks are very real, especially in the event of an economic downturn. In the 2001 tech wreck recession, the Fed cut short-term rates from 6.5% to 1% but long-term bond yields remained relatively high, which was not a helpful combination for the tech sector. In addition to its 82% decline during the tech wreck recession, it also fell sharply during the global financial crisis, though not as badly as the S&P 500, which had a far larger weighting to bank stocks. This time around, potential threats to the Nasdaq include: The possibility of an economic downturn which could crimp corporate profits. Rate cuts which would reduce the return on cash positions. Large budget deficits and quantitative tightening which could push up long-term bond yields. Possibly tighter regulation of the tech sector in the U.S. and abroad. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Editors' picks
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by CME_Group
6