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2024-06-17 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - nqGood Evening and I hope you are well. Nasdaq. 20000. What else can you say. The AI bubble will be in the history books and Michael Lewis will write a book about the insanity that’s going on. I sincerely hope they bring the exact cast back from the big short. You can quote me on this one. Over the next months, you will read about companies cutting back on spending, especially on AI since it’s expensive af and not bringing in any money. Nvidia will probably be halved somewhere in 2025/2026 so stock should hit around 65ish. Monthly ema is at 60. I looked that up after I wrote the halving part. comment: Let’s review this weekly painting, now that we finally reached 20000. All bullish targets are met, the upper bull channel is broken and I expect this to be a bull trap rather than a breakout above with follow through. If nq trades above 20100, I am obviously wrong. Last two times we reached new highs we sold off for a couple of weeks and this is what I expect this time as well. Market will most likely pull back from here and then retest the ath again before we trade back to the smaller bull channel around 18500 or lower. current market cycle: 20000. Get a tattoo of that. key levels: 18000 - 20000 bull case: Bulls outdid themselves on this one. One for the history books. Can they get higher? Sure but I doubt it. Have nothing for them in this section. Move on. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Let’s see if they appear tomorrow. We should see a decent pullback to at least 19500 over the next days, follow by a retest of the ath, which should fail. A bigger two-legged correction should get us down to 18500 over the next days/weeks. On the bigger time frame all my bullish targets are met and all wave series ended between 19000 and 20000. Got nothing for the bulls here. Invalidation is above 20100. short term: Who buy’s this above 20000? Let’s see tomorrow. If they actually do, no idea where it can go. I expect a pullback to 19500 and the daily 20ema. medium-long term: This climactic blow off top was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. current swing trade: Short 20000 until bulls manage to break 20100 or big profits. I will take profits and add to this position along the way. Chart update: This is my best guess on how the next 3-9 months will play out. Gave all the reasons above.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by priceactiontds
3
Why Is It A 'Show Me' Week for Markets?Please note, we are referencing the June futures and do not roll until Tuesday of each quarterly expiration week. E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June) S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 5437.50, down 1.00 on Friday and up 81.75 on the week NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 19,685.50, up 83.00 on Friday and 647.75 on the week The E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ finished at new weekly records on Friday and closed higher for the sixth and seventh week out of the last eight, respectively. We have certainly not been ones to shy away from calling this a stock pickers market, finding many names outside the lauded “Mag 7” to hang our hats on, however, we find the latest breadth deterioration concerning. With economic data, earnings, and the June Fed meeting in the rear-view mirror, this will be a critical week. Will the Industrial sector continue to roll over, will the Consumer Discretionary sector build out a head and shoulders top. Look at the E-mini Dow, it is still 3.5% from its March record high and the E-mini Russell finished Friday at the lowest level since May 1st. The sectors absolutely matter, but the top six names (MSFT, AAPL, NVDA, GOOG, AMZN, META) now account for 30% of the S&P, and right here we are talking about index futures. Price action has built out nice support in the E-mini S&P at and around 5400, detailed below. If we see continued construction out above this area and, furthermore, strength in the E-mini NQ out above 19,685-19,691, then there is no reason to think the party is over, and our Bias will remain more Bullish. Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 5444-5447***, 5452.50-5454.50***, 5459.75***, 5475.75*** Pivot: 5430.50-5438.50 Support: 5424.25-5426.25**, 5413-5417**, 5408.50***, 5395.75-5397**, 5384-5387.50****, 5370.50-5375.75**, 5355.75-5359.25*** NQ (June) Resistance: 19,882**, 20,000**** Pivot: 19,685-19,691 Support: 19,629-19,649**, 19,557-19,563**, 19,496-19,507****, 19,433**, 19,349-19,374***, 19,242-19,279**** 19,187-19,208**, 19,136-19,155*** Micro Bitcoin (June) Last week’s close: Settled at 65,640, down 1,220 on Friday and 4,115 on the week Bias: Neutral Resistance: 67,200-67,290**, 67,515-67,735**, 68,375-68,855*** Pivot: 66,450 Support: 65,565-65,640***, 65,067-65,205**, 63,236-63,325*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
20240614 NQI anticipate one more move to the downside in order to perform d ss raid and reach to the bottom of the ORG Thursday before the reversal to the upside and move to the new HOW and making new HH. HI news at 10am will create spike in volatility. That is why the wicks of the downside candles can reach deeper than the supposed support level of the ORG Thursday bottom. Risk should be respected. I would like DXY to support this scenario by not moving above to raid it’s w REH today and symmetrical move of DXY to the downside.
CME_MINI:NQM2024Long
by Yoo_Cool
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 6/14/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2024 - PR High: 19615.25 - PR Low: 19592.50 - NZ Spread: 50.75 Key economic calendar event 11:00 | Fed Monetary Policy Report Maintaining value in Wed highs - Holding inside prev session range - Prev session advertising reversal back towards 19400 Evening Stats (As of 1:15 AM) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 235.94 - Volume: 17K - Open Int: 228K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -0.2% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 19814 - Mid: 18675 - Short: 17533 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQM2024
by mv3trader5
Nasdaq 100 - Dawn of the New Age !Nasdaq 100 has been rallying since it bottomed out of the deep 2022 correction. The current rally is likely to continue for sometime however, one should not be ignoring the technical levels for support and resistance that we observe on the chart for short term profit taking and building positions on pull back. The recent highs are supported by an unprecedented demand for AI hardware. I believe we are in phase 1 of a major super cycle that is likely to pan out over years perhaps decades. The super cycle is likely to have three stages. 1. The race to build out the infrastructure 2. Companies that are able to build their software to deliver services and finally 3. Companies that convert stage 1 & 2 into cash flows. It’s hard to predict companies that will have the most success in stage 2 and 3. However, as a strategy I plan to stick to the hardware providers and then owning a diversified portfolio of tech stocks.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by maj1234