Perion UpdateJust an update on Perion; very clean wave count so far and expecting a decent bounce from here of at least 50%+; still expecting one more major wave down for a final low after the bounce; targets will depend on how high the relief rally goes; take all future price predictions with a grain of salt - its just educated guesswork until the price action starts to fill in the blanks
PERI trade ideas
PERI All Roads Lead to $5.89Not sure what is going on with this stock but, putting aside the possibility of it going to zero, the chart strongly suggests a target of $5.89 or just below. Expect a bounce from here to about $18.32 (entry at $11) but this may not happen if the sentiment is very bearish - could just straight line to the target (or to zero...). Satisfying how it hit the 1.414 target of the previous expanding flat ABC so precisely; further increases the likelihood it will stop at the 1.618 in my analysis.
Perion Plummets 41% on Monday Trading In a tumultuous turn of events, Perion Network's U.S.-listed shares nosedived by over 40% on Monday following the company's stark reduction in its 2024 revenue forecast. The Israeli ad tech firm attributed this downward revision to a significant decline in search advertising, primarily driven by transformative changes at Microsoft's Bing platform.
Perion Network ( NASDAQ:PERI ), which had previously anticipated annual revenue in the robust range of $860 million to $880 million for 2024, now anticipates a starkly reduced figure between $590 million to $610 million. This substantial downgrade underscores the profound impact of shifts in search advertising dynamics, particularly stemming from alterations in ad pricing and distribution mechanisms implemented by Microsoft Bing.
Eric Martinuzzi, an analyst at Lake Street Capital Markets, highlighted the inherent risk associated with Perion's revenue concentration on Microsoft, noting that changes in Microsoft's advertising policies have triggered the drastic reset in Perion's revenue outlook. With Microsoft accounting for 35% of its revenue in 2022, the repercussions of the tech giant's strategic shifts reverberate throughout Perion's financial landscape.
The fallout from Perion's revised revenue forecast reverberated across the market, with the company's stock plummeting by $13.30 in early trading. Year-to-date, Perion's shares have tumbled by approximately 32%, grappling with intensified competition from industry behemoths such as Alphabet's Google and Meta Platforms, parent company of Facebook.
Despite the daunting challenges posed by evolving market dynamics, Perion remains steadfast in its commitment to navigate these turbulent waters. The company is slated to unveil its first-quarter results on May 8, providing investors with crucial insights into its ongoing efforts to mitigate the impact of Microsoft Bing's transformative changes on its revenue streams.
As the ad tech industry braces for continued disruption amidst the evolving search advertising landscape, Perion's resilience and adaptability will be put to the test. With uncertainty looming, stakeholders keenly await Perion's strategic response to navigate the shifting sands of the digital advertising realm and emerge stronger in the face of adversity.
Technical Outlook
NASDAQ:PERI 's stock is in a Downward Trend with the stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 9.88 indicating a very strong overbought condition for the ticker.
PERI : RESETPerion Network: Leveraging Advertising Technology AI For Growth
Perion is a leading digital advertising technology company, offering a comprehensive suite of solutions that empower advertisers to optimize their campaigns and maximize return on investment.
With a diversified revenue model encompassing display and search advertising, as well as strategic acquisitions in content analytics and video advertising, Perion is well-positioned to capitalize on the growth.
Perion's customer-centric approach, advanced targeting capabilities, and focus on building long-term relationships with clients contribute to its high client retention rates and reputation for delivering value-driven results.
Business Overview
Perion operates in the digital advertising sector, which is projected to experience significant growth in the coming years. According to eMarketer, digital ad spending worldwide is forecasted to reach $526 billion in 2023, representing a 21% increase from the previous year.
Perion's revenue streams are primarily generated from two categories: display advertising (58% of revenues) and search advertising (42% of revenues). The company provides advertisers with access to a wide network of publishers and ad inventory, enabling them to reach their target audiences efficiently. Geographically, Perion derives approximately 90% of its revenue from the US and 10% from international markets.
Moat
Perion's moat lies in its strategic partnerships and its ability to offer a cookie-less solution through its SORT (Smart Optimization of Response Traits) technology. As major browsers phase out third-party cookies, advertising companies are facing challenges in targeting and tracking users effectively. Perion's SORT technology differentiates itself by leveraging innocuous "common ground" traits such as publisher context, daypart, and geography. These traits offer advertisers an effective and anonymous alternative to traditional third-party cookies. In early tests, SORT demonstrated superior performance, with higher click-through rates, increased interaction rates, and decreased costs per visit. Moreover, Perion's strategic partnerships with leading players in the industry, such as Microsoft's Bing, further solidify its moat by providing access to valuable inventory and diversified revenue streams.
Valuation
Perion currently trades at an enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiple of 7.4x and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.5x. These valuations are relatively reasonable, considering Perion's position in a rapidly growing market and its potential for further expansion. The company has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% over the past five years. Furthermore, Perion has maintained healthy profit margins, with an operating margin of 10% and a net margin of 7% in the most recent fiscal year. These financial metrics indicate that the company is efficiently converting its revenue into profits.
Read more on :
seekingalpha.com
MontrealValue, Seeking Alpha, Jun. 15, 2023 3:38 AM ET
PERI : POSITIION TRADEQ3 : EARNINGS CALL HIGHLIGHTS:
Looking at the last 8 quarters, our ability to exceed the rule of 40 is not a series of anomaly or a one-off success. Quite the opposite, we are outperforming the industry because we are built on the fundamental recognition that adtech must be able to respond, underlying response to the trend with ability and agility.
Revenue of $158.6 million, reflecting 31% year-over-year growth, the highest quarterly revenue since 2014. Adjusted EBITDA of $33 million, 21% of revenue compared with 15% last year, reflecting 87% year-over-year growth. Net -- GAAP net income of $25.6 million, 141% year-over-year growth, the highest quarterly net income since 2014. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.61, reflecting 53% year-over-year growth.
The third quarter revenue was $158.6 million, an increase of 31% year-over-year. The strong continued revenue growth reflected a CAGR 38%. Display advertising revenue increased by 26% year-over-year to $86.8 million, 55% of total revenue. Market adoption of our holistic video platform solution continued to rise. Video revenue more than 3% year-over-year, representing 44% of display advertising revenue. The number of video platform publishers increased by 88% year-over-year from 34% to 64%, and the revenue from retained video platform publishers increased by 67% year-over-year.
Third quarter OpEx and COGS amounted to $31.7 million or 20% of revenue compared with $33.1 million or 27% of revenue last year. This impressive achievement reflects the execution of our business strategy.
On a GAAP basis, net income was $25.6 million or $0.53 per diluted share, an increase of 141% compared with $10.6 million or $0.28 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2021. On a non-GAAP basis, net income was $29.9 million or $0.61 per diluted share, an increase of 94% compared with $15.4 million or $0.40 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2021.
Adjusted EBITDA of $33 million, reflecting 94% year-over-year growth, adjusted EBITDA margin of 21% compared with 15% last year. Adjusted EBITDA to revenue, excluding TAC increased from 37% in the third quarter of 2021 to 51% during the third quarter of 2022.
Operating cash flow was $34.7 million compared with $14.2 million in the third quarter of 2021, reflecting 145% year-over-year growth. As of September 30, 2022, cash, cash equivalents, and short-term bank deposits of $390 million compared with $322 million as of December 31, 2021; continuously generating positive cash flow.
Full earnings call transcript and presentation on the links below:
Transcript / Audio : seekingalpha.com
Presentation : wp-cdn.perion.com
PERI Long [Trend Continuation]Market Phase & Period:
- Uptrend: July 2022 - ongoing
Description:
- A bullish trend began in July 2022 after approximately 6 quarters of consolidation
- The price broke the $30 level with increased volume and reached a peak of $43
- There was a rebound to $30 followed by increased volume, which held the price in late May
- There was strong price action on July 6th with increased volume
Action:
- Considering a long trade with a target of $53 and a stop below the level
- The RR ratio is 3.5 to 1
Risks:
- There was an increase in short volume in late April to early May
Momentum Stock: Perion Network Ltd.Perion Network Ltd. is an international technology company that specializes in developing innovative digital advertising solutions for brands and publishers. Its primary focus is to provide data-driven execution strategies across a multitude of channels, including search, social, and display, which enables advertisers to connect and engage with their target audiences more effectively.
The company operates through three main divisions. Its 'Search Advertising' division offers sophisticated technology that empowers brands to maximize their online search traffic and revenue, while the 'Display and Social Advertising' division utilizes advanced AI-based solutions to create personalized, cross-channel advertising campaigns. Finally, the 'Content Monetization' division provides unique content and ad experiences that drive user engagement and revenue for publishers.
Investors might be attracted to Perion Network for several reasons. Firstly, it operates in the growing digital advertising industry, which continues to expand with the rise of internet usage worldwide. Its innovative technology solutions, coupled with the company's data-driven approach, position it well to capitalize on this trend.
Secondly, Perion's diversified revenue streams - from search to display and social advertising - provide a certain level of financial stability. This diversification reduces the company's reliance on a single market segment, thereby potentially mitigating risks associated with fluctuations in individual market sectors.
Thirdly, Perion has a track record of strategic acquisitions, which have helped expand its product portfolio, increase its global reach, and drive its growth. This proactive growth strategy may appeal to investors looking for companies with aggressive expansion plans.
Lastly, the company's ongoing investment in AI and machine learning technologies demonstrates its commitment to staying at the forefront of industry innovation. As these technologies continue to shape the future of digital advertising, Perion's early and continued investment in this area could potentially provide a competitive advantage.
From a technical perspective , I like that it has had quite a deep 25% pullback after its last earnings and its MACD is looking like momentum might start to shift back to the upside. Need to wait for confirmation, but one to watch perhaps.
As always, potential investors should conduct thorough research and consider all financial aspects before making an investment decision.
Perion USA Sun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series
Focus: Worldwide
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PERI - Upward and OnwardPerion Network Ltd is an Israel-based global technology company. It delivers online advertising solutions and search monetization to brands and publishers.
The run for digitization during the Covid Pandemic has provided a stellar price increase for the stock followed by a somewhat laggard performance in 2021.
The fundamentals of the company look solid and my personal believe is that the growth potential of the company is not really reflected in the current price. By not being a large US entity the company might have been somewhat overlooked by the market.
Key Fundamentals
Solid revenue growth of 41% yoy
No long term debt on the balance sheet
High operating cash yield of 120%
RoI 10.1%
Technical
The price seems to form a wedge since its all time highs, currently trading just short of the upper leg of the wedge in what seems to be short term resistance around $20, ahead of the July highs of $24.
Wedge formation since all time high in March
Short term support around $17
Medium term support around $15
MACD trading flat with no clear signal
RSI just short of overbought territory, confirming first resistance (R1)
Conclusion
Potential Long position below current levels, I'd be happy to own the stock anywhere between current levels and $17.I see longer-term upside as long as the earnings maintain momentum. Breaking through the wedge at $20 will be key in the short run however. I would align my exit with current analyst consensus at $28 while maintaining a SL in the $15-17 area.
***Disclaimer: This is my personal view and does not represent trading advice. I publish this as a personal trade log and to keep track of my findings and believes. Do conduct your own research before investing and do not trade what you cant afford to loose.***
$PERI a fundamental trade with technical entryAd-tech business - a hot industry, with names like $TTD and $APPS. My DCF analysis says a conservative 50% upside. Yesterday we made a doji at weekly 2B support. Today prints a strong opening marubozu.
TD D-Wave analysis says we completed wave 4 and on course to wave 5.
PERI : COIL / SWING TRADEPerion Network: On The Verge Of Breaking Out To New Multi-Year Highs
Israel-based provider of digital advertising solutions raises guidance for the second time in two months.
Outperformance attributed to better-than-expected revenue synergies from recent acquisitions as well as higher demand for the company's Connected TV and video offerings.
Search business de-risked by recent four-year contract extension with Microsoft. Management hinted to renewed growth opportunities in the press release.
Company trades at a massive discount to advertising pure plays The Trade Desk and Magnite.
Watch for strong guidance on the company's upcoming fourth quarter and full year 2020 earnings report on February 9.
SOURCE: Henrik Alex, SeekingAlpha
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