TBULL Trade Plan (11/12/24)Hello!
This is my second Tron meme coins I've analyzed, because why not?
Amidst broader alt market bleeds and uncertainty, I hope this you will find this informative to help in navigating the market!
Assumptions:
1. Intended for spot holding/trade.
2. Bullish market into Q1 2025.
3. Robust against sudden dumps.
4. Understanding of memecoin and risk management.
5. Awareness of broader market, macroeconomics, and geopolitcs at play.
Invalidations:
1. Breakdown and invalidation of current MS.
2. Tier 1 CEX listing Hype, if any.
3. Broader market extreme bearishness and unexpected turns.
Lets start with broader aspects:
1. FDV and Vol/Market Cap:
The coin indicates undergoing of correction phase after a parabolic rise in W1 December. Consider the consistent declining Vol, MCap, and OHLC --> shift from speculative to profit taking by earlier holders. Good for start of reaccumulation as shown by interest and liquidity albeit a bit volatile. Check the historical data and DYOR for this.
2. On going war in Middle East.
3. Google Willow quantum chip.
4. Geopolitics and dynamics between world's big bois.
5. Best to read 2-4 and DYOR, use AI for easier time summarizing info.
Applied analysis:
1. ICT
a. Liquidity:
BSL:
H4: 0.0165-0.0185 (50% fib).
D1: 0.021-0.023 (23.6% fib).
SSL:
H4: 0.0136-0.0145 (golden pocket) & 0.0112-0.0125 (78.6%-85.4% fib, reversal zone).
D1: 0.014-0.015 (golden pocket) 0.01-0.013 (78.6%-85.4% fib, reversal zone, MS last defense, and low swing).
Potential for quick deep liq. sweep at H4/MM testing S-D, deeper liq. grab of these levels followed by a strong rejection could confirm a bullish OB.
b. Order Blocks (Paired with VPVR):
Bullish OB/Demand zone:
H4-D1: 0.01-0.0137 (78.6%-85.4% fib)
Bearish OB/Supply zone:
H4: 0.017-0.0185 (50% fib)
D1: 0.0195-0.0205 (23.6% fib)
c. Fair Value Gap (FVG):
H4: 0.0123-0.0136.
Once current trading range broken down, expect price to revisit here.
d. Market Structure:
Premium-EQ-discount zone, HL-HH-LH-LL, PDH-PDL-PWH-PWL, BOS, and CHOCH as marked in the D1 chart.
LTF-HTF indicate potential consolidation -> accumulation. A breakout above $0.03 would mark a BOS into higher timeframe bullishness.
Observed EQH formed = ~0.0295.
Observed EQL formed = ~0.01-0.0105 by 0.25 threshold.
Potential EQL formed = ~0.012-0.014.
2. Candle Pattern:
Watch formation of hard price rejection (long wick down/up), reversal candle, or bullish continuation i.e. morning star/engulfing/hammer on HTF or near OB/liquidity.
3. Fib Analysis:
Use log price and log fib or vice versa, fib levels marked in the chart uses log fib-log price.
4. Technical Indicators:
Use your most comfortable indicators, watch any reversal/bull div. signal or trend strength and continuations. EMA 50-100-200 could act as resistance/support.
5. Market Phase Interpretation (Wyckoff and Elliott):
a. Wyckoff Accumulation:
The PA seems to be in the late phase D Wyckoff Accum.
b. Elliott Wave:
My interpretation on this is ABCDE ascending triangle if H4 SSL (demand zone) holds, invalidated upon support convincing breakdown.
c. Blending Wyckoff and Elliott:
Wyckoff Phase D and Elliott Wave ABCDE Triangle usually share overlapping characteristics i.e. aligns with re accumulation market, indicating consolidation before a markup phase.
Wave C = LPS in Wyckoff in this context. The breakout from wave E correlates with the SOS in Wyckoff’s Phase D. This is what I think, could be false completely.
6. Entries and Take Profit
All marked in the chart. Use fib. extension to gauge the desired price target once breakout from the current D1 premium range confirmed.
NFA. DYOR. Good Luck!
Note:
As per usual, for DCA use cascading buy order, set tight TP/SL for higher price zone based on your risk tolerance and trading style, re entry at lower price once price stabilizes in HTF should be safe. This way, you should be able to minimize your realized loss (i.e. 2-5% or 5-10% SL distance for each staggered entries in spot market) and optimize your returns (parabolic/god candle moves included).
Follow your own risk management for max drawdown (MDD) tolerance and other metrics.
Dont overcommit, use ~5% of your portfolio to see if this coin suit your taste.
