The Big Short Part 2 (GOLD)We are continuing to make big bucks on GOLD
Hitting strong supply zones
Downtrend on 4 hour and 1 hour charts
Get in the game!
GD1! trade ideas
GC LongsLooking to go long after price reacted bullish to 3/18/24 1H FVG. Waiting for London to sweep Asian lows, tap into the 5m FVG/ or OB, create a MSS, while leaving a FVG for a second entry or first secure entry (if not entering off the bearish 5m OB.
The Big Short on GOLD4 hour and 1 hour charts are in a downtrend
15 min supply zone hit
Momentum is down on the 1 hour chart
Our trading system is pointing out the best entries and exits.
We get all of this information to our phones in the form of a text.
Take the trade, set your risk and let the market do the rest.
If this looks like a system that you would like to trade then please feel free to check out the link in my profile.
Gold Sells - March 18The Same Setup From Pre New York Continuations Into More (SSL) & Inefficiency For New York Opening Momentum
Mitigation of 4Hr Supply then Sellers Tank the market SHORT...?COMEX:GC1!
The game of Probability we ohhh sooo Luvvv to participate in.... I have developed another narrative for the HOUSE to CAPITALIZE ON...Vibe w/me
Here's what I'll need to see in order for me to catch this SHORT ON GOLD for the 2nd time ahaha....the 1st execution I guess you could say was premature... Now here we are again!
1) I want to see buyers push price up into this HTF 4Hr supply zone above and mitigate price around($2171.5).... ***This will be our 1st confirmation that we need.
2) If and when buyers mitigate the 4Hr supply above I want sellers to enter the market and create a LTF 15m CHoCh in price, which would indicate a shift in hands...However this is still not enough to enter Short just because we see this change...***KEYNOTE; this will be our 2nd confirmation that we need, a LTF 15m CHoCh in price to the downside...
3) On the 4Hr we can clearly see rii below the Weekly Support level Buyers have created EQL's ($2156.5) which is another Major reason why I believe this market is preparing to go SHORT... If and when we can see these 2 sequences I stated above in price to happen, I then would need sellers to push price of GOLD DOWN & BREAK/CLOSE underneath the Weekly Support Level ($2160.00) on the 1Hr TF down (As true SELLERS CONVICTION) and then push to purge the liquidity the EQL's have created below ($2156.5)...***This will be our 3rd & 4th Confirmation we need to see before we place our limit SHORT...
4) Now remember IF and when we can get these sequence of events to play out in PA then the HOUSE will be compelled to sell the retest of the Weekly Support that failed ($2160.00) and target the next major unmitigated 4Hr Demand Zone below (2139.5)...***The Biggest Key factor I need to see is the 1Hr candle close underneath the Weekly Support level of ($2160.00) and price trading underneath the RED V-Wap, then I will be ready to enter Short cover the HIGH for my stop & set my Target... This move will be roughly around 205 pts in which we can easily catch a solid +2.5-3R % Gain Depending on your management system...
Remember nothing in the market is set in Stone, WE play the long-term game of probabilities...With that being said, now we just Sit back N stalk like the Saltwater CROC!!
Remain Patient & let the set up come rii to us...Trade our system as Professionals...
Nothing Less, We aim for EXCELLENCE!!!
Stay on point!!
#BHM500K #NewERA
Gold Futures - New Futures 100k AcctNoticed Gold Offered No (Sell Side) All Day Price has just been Sneaking Up. Coming Into Pre New York I Anticipated Price To At Least Offer Sellers Something Throughout That (PD Array). I Took That Entry And Targeted Minor (SSL) & 1st Fair Value Gap
Options Blueprint Series Strangles vs. StraddlesIntroduction
In the realm of options trading, the choice of strategy significantly impacts the trader's ability to navigate market uncertainties. Among the plethora of strategies, the Strangle holds a unique position, offering flexibility in unclear market conditions without the upfront costs associated with more conventional approaches like the Straddle. This article delves into the intricacies of the Strangle strategy, emphasizing its application in the volatile world of Gold Futures trading. For traders seeking a foundation in the Straddle strategy, refer to our earlier discussion in "Options Blueprint Series: Straddle Your Way Through The Unknown" -
In-Depth Look at the Strangle Strategy
The Strangle strategy involves purchasing a call option and a put option with the same expiration date but different strike prices. Typically, the call strike price is higher than the current market price, while the put strike price is lower. This approach is designed for situations where a significant price movement is anticipated, but the direction of the movement is uncertain. It's particularly effective in markets prone to sudden swings, making it a valuable strategy for Gold Futures traders who face volatile market conditions.
Advantages of the Strangle strategy include its lower upfront cost compared to the Straddle strategy, as options are bought out-of-the-money (OTM). This aspect makes it a more accessible strategy for traders with budget constraints. The potential for unlimited profits, should the market make a strong move in either direction, further adds to its appeal.
However, the risks include the total loss of the premium paid if the market does not move significantly and both options expire worthless. Therefore, timing and market analysis are critical when implementing a Strangle in the gold market.
Example: Consider a scenario where Gold Futures are trading at $1,800 per ounce. Anticipating volatility, a trader might purchase a call option with a strike price of $1,820 and a put option with a strike price of $1,780. If gold prices swing widely enough in either direction, the strategy could yield substantial profits.
Strangle vs. Straddle: Understanding the Key Differences
The Strangle and Straddle strategies are both designed to capitalize on market volatility, yet they differ significantly in execution and ideal market conditions. While the Straddle strategy involves buying a call and put option at the same strike price, the Strangle strategy opts for different strike prices. This fundamental difference impacts their cost, risk, and potential return.
Cost Implications: The Strangle strategy is generally less expensive than the Straddle due to the use of out-of-the-money options. This lower initial investment makes the Strangle appealing to traders with tighter budget constraints or those looking to manage risk more conservatively.
Risk Exposure and Profit Potential: Although both strategies offer unlimited profit potential, the Strangle requires a more significant price move to reach profitability due to its out-of-the-money positions. Consequently, the risk of total premium loss is higher with Strangles if the anticipated volatility does not materialize to a sufficient degree.
Market Conditions: Straddles are best suited for markets where significant price movement is expected but without clear directional bias. Strangles, given their lower cost, might be preferred in situations where substantial volatility is anticipated but with a slightly lower conviction level, allowing for larger market moves before profitability.
In the context of Gold Futures and Micro Gold Futures, traders might lean towards a Strangle strategy when expecting major market events or economic releases that could induce significant gold price fluctuations. The choice between a Strangle and a Straddle often comes down to the trader's market outlook, risk tolerance, and cost considerations.
Application to Gold Futures and Micro Gold Futures
Implementing a Strangle in the Gold Futures market requires a keen understanding of underlying market conditions and volatility. Given the precious metal's sensitivity to global economic indicators, political instability, and changes in demand, traders can leverage the Strangle strategy to capitalize on expected price swings without committing to a directional bet. When applying a Strangle to Gold Futures, selecting the appropriate strike prices becomes crucial. The goal is to position the OTM options in a way that balances the potential for significant price movements with the cost of premiums paid. This balance is critical in scenarios like central bank announcements or inflation reports, where gold prices can experience sharp movements, offering the potential for Strangle strategies to flourish.
Long Straddle Trade-Example
Underlying Asset: Gold Futures or Micro Gold Futures (Symbol: GC1! or MGC1!)
Strategy Components:
Buy Put Option: Strike Price 2275
Buy Call Option: Strike Price 2050
Net Premium Paid: 11.5 points = $1,150 ($115 with Micros)
Micro Contracts: Using MGC1! (Micro Gold Futures) reduces the exposure by 10 times
Maximum Profit: Unlimited
Maximum Loss: Net Premium paid
Risk Management
Effective risk management is paramount when employing options strategies like the Strangle, especially within the volatile realms of Gold Futures and Micro Gold Futures trading. Traders should be acutely aware of the expiration dates and the time decay (theta) of options, which can erode the potential profitability of a Strangle strategy as the expiration date approaches without significant price movement in the underlying asset. To mitigate such risks, it's common to set clear criteria for adjusting or exiting the positions. This could involve rolling out the options to a further expiration date or closing the position to limit losses once certain thresholds are met.
Additionally, the use of stop-loss orders or protective puts/calls as part of a broader trading plan can provide a safety net against unforeseen market reversals. Such techniques ensure that losses are capped at a predetermined level, allowing traders to preserve capital for future opportunities.
Conclusion
The Strangle and Straddle strategies each offer unique advantages for traders navigating the Gold Futures market's uncertainties. By understanding the distinct characteristics and application scenarios of each, traders can make informed decisions tailored to their market outlook and risk tolerance. While the Strangle strategy offers a cost-effective means to leverage expected volatility, it also necessitates a disciplined approach to risk management and an acute understanding of market dynamics.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
GOLD Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZone Pro & UMVD Indicators.
* Trend is Based on TrapZone Color
* Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves.
* Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand
--------------------
1-18-2024
GREEN UMVD pushing the price UP with a strong RED TrapZone at the moment.
See higher Time Frame Analysis below
It seems gold's time to fall has arrived !!!In the 1-hour time frame, we can currently see that gold has formed a higher low in a descending triangle pattern, which tends to indicate that the price could fall to the support level within the rectangle, which is the support level according to the 99-period moving average in the daily time frame. If it breaks below the upper resistance at the polarity point, it could drop further.
On the volume side, we can clearly see heavy selling volumes, while at the support levels, the buying volumes are lower, signaling that the price has the potential to shift from an uptrend to a downtrend. The volume profile at support and resistance levels suggests gold may be transitioning from an uptrend to a downtrend based on the technical evidence.
XAUUSD SCALPINGwe'll wait for the news on 17:30 to confirm whether we BUY or SELL
If it breaks the up trend line we buy
If it breaks the down trend line we wait for retest or double confirmation candle then we sell
Opening Range on GoldThis is a classic setup for the retest of the opening range on gold.
Price pulls back to the 15 min supply zone which is also inside of the opening range.
Target hits 2:1 and still going!
Gold Sells1st Trade closed manually due to price retesting back above the 50%(CE) also tapping into 1 Min (Fair Value). 2nd Trade Re-Entry Filled (TP)
Gold COMEX Future - Intraday Levels - 14th March 2024For your Analysis and Study only
If Sustain above 2181 then 2185 then 2193 then 2195 then 2198 above this more bullish movement can be expected
If Sustain below 2175 then 2171 then 2166 then 2163 then 2161 then 2158 or 2153 then 2145 to 2144 then 2142 to 2140 then 2135 below this more bearish movement can be expected
Consider some buffer points in above levels.
Please do your due diligence before trading or investment.
**Disclaimer -
I am not a registered analyst or advisor. I does not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any information, conversation, or content. Stock and commodities trading is inherently risky and the users agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that they make, including but not limited to loss of capital. None of these communications should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. The users understands and acknowledges that there is a very high risk involved in trading securities. By using this information, the user agrees that use of this information is entirely at their own risk.
Thank you.
GC LongGC has been bullish for the past 3 weeks and is set to continue making record highs this year. Look to get long if price pulls back to demand.
Gold looking for the fifth wave! Is this correction enough?Greetings
Dear analysts and traders,
I hope you are doing well and are motivated for the week ahead. I wish you all the success in your business endeavors. Remember that success in trading lies in consistently defining and sticking to your rules.
As someone interested in the Elliott Wave Principle, I find it to be an invaluable tool for market analysis. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering different scenarios that are likely to occur in the market. It should be noted that I do not like to be surprised in the market, and that's why I have different market prospects. I follow them to be sure and recognize the structure that is forming so that I can 100% recognize it.
I will share my analysis with you, but please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is completely unbiased, so if the idea analysis meets your standards, you can use it as a guide to make an informed decision.
I have attached my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the differences. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand. However, having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily.
I have been studying the Elliott Wave Principle for almost three years now, and over time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has grown. What I have achieved so far is the legacy of a genius called Ralph Nelson Eliot, and I am really happy with my progress. May peace be upon him.
Thank you for your support so far. I will always remember your kindness. Please share your comments and criticisms with me.
I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
Sincerely,
Mr. Nobody
If the US dollar strengthens and its correlation with gold is inverse, indicating a corrective structure in the larger wave.
Can the HOUSE capitalize SHORT on the counter-trend PULLBACK...?COMEX:GC1!
A wise man once said, 'The Market Pays You To Be DISCIPLINED'
So Family...Here on Gold I have constructed a High Probable SHORT set-up for the HOUSE to CAPITALIZE on! Below I will break down my narrative in gr8 detail to understand the reason why... Vibe w/ me...
1) Starting on the Daily TF buyers pushed price all the way up and swept December's HIGH with a candle closure above pricing ($2171.5)...& Also swept a descending eR/LQ Trend to the upside with candle closure above PUSHING INTO Premium Pricing levels AKA (GOLD is EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE RII NOW) ***Yu see the market is made up of humans just like you and me who are created with emotions. Now this is just my perception, but being that gold is extremely HIGH & expensive rii now, what does that mean? People are going to start selling at the HIGH rii...Exactly! They fear Gold dropping anyway being that is so expensive, so they sell to lock-in & protect their profits. AND this is the move we will be looking to capitalize on!
ON THEIR FEAR!!!
2) On the 4Hr TF we have an unmitigated Demand zone and this will the the #1 confirmation I need to see Fail in order to scale Short... Soon as sellers break this 4Hr demand zone, That will be out 1st confirmation that the counter trend pullback may be getting ready to happen...
Stay on Point, it's $$$ on the line...
3) Underneath the 4Hr Demand zone is a MAJOR Weekly Resistance turned Support Level ($2160.0) and that will be the #2nd confirmation I need to see fail in order to enter short... ***Price needs to close underneath with strong conviction under 4Hr Demand and the Weekly Support level on both the 30&15m in order for me to scale short...***Also price needs to be trading underneath the RED V-Wap on the 1He TF and below as final confirmation...Always a plus to be trading in favor of the V-Wap...IMO
4) If and when we can get the sequence of events to happen then I will be compelled to scale SHORT on the retest of the Weekly S&R Level ($2160.00), Always cover the high for STOPS and target the next unmitigated 4Hr Demand Zone around ($2040.00) Roughly a 200 point move. Can easily catch a solid +2.5-3R % Gain depending on your management system...
***OH and this is just something I might add...When it comes to your stop losses, ALWAYS Place your stops outside of a fluctuation zone and in a place where it would in-validate the trade once hit...That way its easier to accept the L if taken cuz you were 100% wrong...its helps me hope it can help you as well...This Trade is considered Counter Trend so we need to skilled in our entries and even more our exits... Stay Focused, Stay Disciplined...
Shalom+
***Remember nothing in the market is set in stone, We play the long-term game of probability...
However I am very confident in my reading of PA...Lets get to it $$$$$
+2.5R % Gain this Week! It's been spoken!!
Now lets sit back N stalk like the Saltwater CROC!!!
#BHM500K #NewERA
Gold - March 13 No High Impact News 1st Trade closed out Bears couldn't commit also Bulls momentum came in a little powerful signaling me price may want to fill in some more inefficiencies before possibly selling off later on down the line.
Gold COMEX Future - Intraday Levels - 13th March 2024For your Analysis and Study only
If Sustain above 2165 to 2166 then 2169 then 2171 to 2173 then 2180 to 2182 or 2183 then 2187 then 2193 2195 or 2196 above this more bullish movement can be expected
If Sustain below 2161 then 2156 to 2154 or 2153 then 2145 to 2144 then 2142 to 2140 then 2135 below this
more bearish movement can be expected
Consider some buffer points in above levels.
Please do your due diligence before trading or investment.
**Disclaimer -
I am not a registered analyst or advisor. I does not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any information, conversation, or content. Stock and commodities trading is inherently risky and the users agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that they make, including but not limited to loss of capital. None of these communications should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. The users understands and acknowledges that there is a very high risk involved in trading securities. By using this information, the user agrees that use of this information is entirely at their own risk.
UPDATE: Gold almost VERTICAL! Target remains at $2,236Gold has been moving very nicely this year.
First it broke out of a MASSIVE Symmetrical Triangle that lasted an entire year of sideways movements.
Then it shot up, formed a W Formation and then just rallied up with a high inclination.
I'm talking over 60 degrees up. So, the momentum is strong (bubble style) but still strong. And the target remains at $2,236.
We could then get some consolidation and some steam off by SMart Money, before the buying saga continues.
I'm a raging gold bull!
Are gold prices expected to fall?If you would like to be notified whenever I post a new article, just click "FOLLOW" at the top. Also, if you would like to elaborate on a particular topic or need some advice, please comment below the article and I will be happy to help.
Contrary to popular belief, in times of low interest rates and accommodative monetary policies, gold is not the best investment.
One of the main reasons gold is seen as a favorable investment is because the resumption of Quantitative Easing (QE) and zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) has a positive impact on its value. Usually, when the fiat currency is devalued, durable goods such as gold become more valuable.
During periods of low interest rates, it is important to find zero-yielding assets such as gold that can still be attractive to investors. In this scenario, the yield loss is less significant than in situations where interest rates are higher. For example, if rates were at 10 percent, the opportunity cost of gold would be higher than if interest rates were at 2 percent. This means that during these periods, gold could become more attractive as a form of investment.
However, if we look at past data, we see that this has never happened.
According to the data, gold tends to depreciate relative to stocks when monetary policy is more accommodative (even if its face value in currency increases). But why does this happen? The reason is still uncertain and can be attributed to the human behavior of traders. However, there are some dynamics that may help explain this phenomenon: in an environment of low interest rates and inflation fears, investors may prefer to pursue higher returns by taking on more risk.
Despite its limited opportunity cost, gold remains an attractive investment for rational investors. However, not all investors act rationally, and over the past decade we have seen many people prefer nonprofit startups to gold or dividend investments. During phases of expansionary monetary policy, the nominal value of gold increases relative to fiat currency. This prompts miners to mine more gold, further increasing the nominal value of gold.
Demand for gold is constant and is often driven by fear and uncertainty in the markets. However, gold has limited practical utility and can be mined at will, which keeps its prices artificially low. In addition, as a non-cash flow-generating asset, investors may prefer more profitable assets in a yield-hungry and inflation-influenced economic environment. Unlike corporations or real estate, gold is unable to raise prices to adjust for rising inflation, leaving it dependent on its perceived scarcity to thrive as an investment.
One of the most interesting advantages of Trading View is the ability to observe futures curves.
As can be seen, the curve is sloped upward and shows a Contango trend. This means that future prices are greater than the current spot price, causing an upward sloping forward curve. To the extent that we get closer to the expiration of the contract, the gap between the spot price and the future price decreases, leading to convergence of the curve toward the spot price.
Under contango conditions, there is a high probability that investments will generate negative returns in the medium term.
This makes me a bit skeptical about future gold prices.
My model forecasts for the next quarter indicate a gold price in the 2000 area, with the beginning of a sideways market phase. This means that there could be a period of stability in prices after reaching this level.
We look forward to seeing you in the next article! And remember, for successful trading always rely on Tradingview: an indispensable tool that can help you avoid serious mistakes during your trades.
www.tradingview.com
GOLD ShortIf the candle (1 day) closes below the last one, I believe it will go down.
Hit me up if you agree with me
a daily price action after hour update - goldGood evening and i hope you are well.
bull case: Everything above 2100 is uber bullish because most long term bears already covered, so we could range much more at the highs. Bulls see the sell off by the bears today as weak and they keep the buying pressure on. If you look at the 1h chart, we currently have wild swings up and down on some 1h candles. Some are > 1%. Bulls now want a break above the bear wedge from today and trade back to 2180 to test higher prices. I’m unsure if we will find more buyers than sellers there but if you look at the daily chart, the move last week was so strong that bulls are obviously still in full control of the market.
bear case: Today was the second day where the Globex open was the high of the day and bulls are not stepping in enough. Was 2202 the high? Could be but the sell off is weak. Bears need to do more and get follow through tomorrow. Market also formed a bear wedge which could break above and market is probably expecting a retest of 2200. If bears can keep it below 2180, bulls might take more profits and we get lower prices. Also there is the slight possibility of today being W1 and we get a measured move down to around 2120 but again, this is very low probability.
short term: Sideways to up but 2200 could continue to be big resistance - invalid below 2150
medium-long term: Down to at least 1850 over the next 2 years — unchanged
trade of the day: selling near the 1h 20ema since bulls could not close above and buying 2160 since bears could not close below - sounds fishy but look back at charts and see how many times that’s a profitable strategy on the day.
