#202429 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bulls got the breakout above and 2 good looking bull bars above the daily 20ema. Above 2407 we can expect bears to give up and a retest of 2460 or higher. Market is amazingly symmetrical. 3 tries to drop below 2300 and we are probably seeing the 3rd try at printing above 2477 over the next days. It’s a big trading range and I will long this above 2407 for 2460+ and will short this above 2460, once market turns around again. Maybe bulls can print a higher high or maybe they don’t, it does not matter since you wait for the clear reversal before shorting again.
comment: Bears tried to bring it below the daily 20ema and failed again. Bulls got another smaller higher high which was also a perfect breakout, retest and long again. So bulls are in full control but they are also not very strong or the market would not pull back each time after 1-2 good looking bull bars. Same reasoning as last week. Can bulls print a higher high or will this become a right shoulder? Probably the latter. Bulls are at 2 good resistance lines and buying above 2400 has not been profitable for more than 2 days in this market ever.
current market cycle: trading range until 2300 or 2407 is broken. If bulls break above, trading range is expanded again up to 2480
key levels: 2300 - 2480
bull case: Bulls keeping it inside the bull wedge and channel and as long as we stay in them, it’s bullish af. Bulls are mostly buying dips and not highs, otherwise market would print more consecutive bull bars. Targets for the bulls are obvious, retesting 2477 or making a higher high.
Invalidation is below 2370.
bear case: Bears only need 2 consecutive bear bars to reverse the market to below 2350 again. They are selling new highs inside the channel/wedge and so far it was profitable at least for scalps. They want this leg up to become the right shoulder and finally break the neckline on the next leg down and get below 2300.
Invalidation is above 2510.
outlook last week:
“short term: Neutral until break above 2407. Bullish above”
→ Last Sunday we traded 2397 and now we are at 2420. 23 points higher… I mean… That’s pretty neutral to me since we also traded 30 points lower during the week.
short term: Bearish for a pullback at least to the lower bull trend line again where I expect bulls to buy it again. No opinion after that.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged
current swing trade: Went long but cut it early. It’s not bullish enough to buy up here. Will only look for shorts once we break the bull trend line.
Chart update: Adjusted the bull wedge and added bull channel with last recent highs but just minor things. Trading range price action and patterns are weak at best.
