Long term gold bull still good even if near current sell zoneFrom 1970 to 1980 I took 2 different fib extension to project the target sell zone for the blow off top and the price hit the target. I used the same fib extensions to give the target sell zone for the current bull market. Then I looked at how extended was the price from the 12 month SMA and it was 57%. Then I made a channel with the at the 12 month SMA and expanded it by 57% from the current and followed the angle of the 12 month SMA. If the price reaches the target sell zone and also is extended to reach the top of the channel this would most like be the blow off top. There are also other trend channels (gold color) that will give top side resistance. The green box in 2000 is the retrace buy zone and since we do not know the exact current top I drew possible bottom retrace buy zones of the next bear way out in the future and will need to be adjusted. This is not trading advise , just my thoughts.
GF1! trade ideas
GOLD HITS RECORD $3,300/OZ โ WHAT IS IT TELLING US?Since 2020, stocks and gold have danced to very different rhythms. Initially, equities ran far ahead, but nowโฆ the tide is turning fast.
๐ As the equity market sinks into a bear phase, capital is pouring into gold.
Just in the last 9 months, gold has surged over $1,000/oz โ a historic move rarely seen outside of crisis periods.
๐ฌ Weโve been calling this for over a year: Gold is now the ONLY global safe haven.
US bonds are no longer the refuge they once were. Investors are voting with their wallets โ and gold is winning.
Letโs put it into perspective:
โก๏ธ Over the last 20 years:
โข Gold is up +620%
โข S&P 500 is up +580%
๐ Gold is trading like weโre in a modern depression โ quietly pricing in risk, instability, and loss of trust in traditional instruments.
๐ง The question is no longer "why is gold rising?" โ itโs "why didnโt more people see this coming?"
GOLD v DXY in breakout move --- HVF hunt volatility funnelAlways good to measure against the DXY not just the USD value
Not perfect of course as it is mainly the Euro and Yen but still insightful.
Been watching the relationship for a while
currently breaking out to the upside
HVF theory means this should be a violent expansion
Target 1 coming up.
Unpopular opinion, but I think it's time to short GoldThis melt-up is approaching resistance, and the symmetry on the chart is compelling. It could set up a great short opportunity as gold consolidates ahead of its next major move higher, likely in 2027.
However, if it breaks out of the current channel, we could be entering a true melt-up phase โ and there's potential for significantly higher prices.
Gold trend directionGold 93887 has given V patten inside raising flag pattern. Based on chart formation we find the move could be a possible trap with 90587. We expect Gold to drop to test 90587 initially before the flag pattern break down and drop down to our earlier target .
News : supply of gold has increased, demand has decreased. Central banks worldwide are expected to slow their pace of acquisition. According to a survey by the World Gold Council, 71% of central banks plan to either reduce their gold reserves or maintain current levels.
Liquidity Concern :"We're getting a lot of stress in the gold market because of liquidity concerns and margin covering by speculators," said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities.
Gold vs Inverted Dollar IndexThis is what I was talking about... note that the dollar index is inverted (upside down).
For the past week, most of the move in gold is due to the movement in the dollar index because we're looking at gold futures in dollars.
Dollar tanks, then gold futures goes up in dollars. It may just stay flat in terms of Euros or francs.
So basically I got lucky shorting it last week, lol. The dollar bounced.
Gold "Breakout" - Dollar Tank EditionBought some GLD this morning because I couldn't think of any other play, and I'm watching the market drop and bond yields rise. Then I look at the dollar index and saw it dropping too. The Euros are selling off all US assets, that's why the drop happened between midnight and noon.
The 2% "pump" wasn't really a pump, the dollar dropped 2% this morning. (Though there was a 0.5% actual pump before close.)
Gold (in dollars) will break out if the dollar index drops below support (I posted a chart). I've been looking for a high confidence big trade, I'm going big on gold if the dollar loses support, and that can happen as early as tomorrow. Keep an eye on the dollar index, I'll be at work so I will not be posting my trade entry.
Note that it's not really a breakout, if you look at gold futures in Swiss francs, it's not even near the top. Also, this trade does not apply to people trading in other currencies like Euros or yens.
I think Trump ruined confidence in the dollar, the US market, and bonds. If that's the case, then gold is the way to go.
Gold - The Blow Off TopAs gold hit a high today I took a look at the chart. Incredible run going back many years. But what goes up must come down. Based on a Fib-extension we can see where price has hit resistance and turned it into support. It happened at 1, 1.272, 1.618, and briefly at 2.618. It has remarkably pushed through that. So in my studies of markets and fibonacci I've found that 4.236 often times bring about the top on a parabolic move. So by following that logic I would put the top, at least a local one, at $3,800. Roughly 25% from here. Anyways, that's my 2 cents on Gold. Happy trading.
Short trade
๐ Trade Breakdown โ Sell-Side (CG1! Futures)
๐
Date: Thursday, April 10, 2025
โฐ Time: 11:45 AM (New York Time)
๐ Session: London to NY Overlap โ Late NY AM
๐ Pair/Instrument: CG1!
๐ Trade Direction: Short (Sell)
Trade Parameters:
Entry: 3179.7
Take Profit (TP): 3149.7 (โ0.94%)
Stop Loss (SL): 3186.0 (+0.20%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 4.76
Reason: Observing exhaustion in a rally before NY closes liquidity window with a price sweep into high (supply zone) signalling a reversal.
Gold4 10 25 this is a relatively short video 15 minutes maybe a little bit more looking at the dollar and looking at Gold. I think gold is getting ready to go higher and it's because of a pattern that developed last night. the way the bars are moving and expanding is triggering a belief for me that the market is going higher. there are reasons why it might go lower since it's in a Range box. the dollars going lower the Gold's going higher you have 1 or 2 bars that make incredible swings and those swings are bi-directional in that one goes up by a lot and then the next bar goes down by a lot..... this is because it's an expanding Market that makes money for buyers and sellers and expanding markets can be very stressful because they make big changes and then on the next bar you get a big change in the other direction.... so you have to think a little bit differently and count on what you think where both sides of the market.... the buyers and the seller and know where they are. if there's 1 point that I think is very important and that is that the 2 bar reversal when the market was at support is really where you would take the best trade based on the way I look for opportunity in a market and it's important to look at where that is and what it looks like because it makes a total difference and how your experience with your entries will change for the better.
GOLD MCX MINOR RESISTANCEGOLDMCX
Gold Mcx has seen huge bull run today on 10th April 2025 (Thursday), Looking at the chart it can be clearly seen yellow metal on MCX is trading in upwrad trending channel pattern and around 92400-92500 Channel Pattern Resistance can be observed. There can be some profit booking seen from current levels, One can get out of long positions and reenter long position once GoldMCX closes above 92500, till then book profits on Long positions, or sell Gold MCX with Small stoploss of 92600
Short XAU (Gold) Gold Futures are showing a very clean impulsive move through Elliot Wave TA. You can see the running flat on the 2nd wave leading to a very strong move on the Wave 3 major move. The Wave 5 is shorter than the Wave 3 to confirm the possible completion of this 5 Wave move up.
A weaker DXY (USD) is throwing an obstacle to this beautiful setup. Let's see some stability to the bonds market which should lead to stability in the equities market. This should help propel traders taking profits on this Gold rush.
Weekly Market Analysis - 9th April 2025Here we are with another market analysis. This time, a bit late in the week on a Wednesday, but it is what it is! We have CPI today and PPI tomorrow, so this should be an interesting week. Overall, gut instinct tells me we would be pushing lower for the DXY, but again, i'm not betting anything on it. I trade the candles, I trade the structure, I don't trade guesses.
I hope you find the video analysis useful. Take care this week!
- R2F Trading